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On February 28 2022 09:13 Pandain wrote:
Cherry-picking isn't related to picking what's available, it's about picking increasingly arbitrary statistics. I've never seen anyone else on this forum ever lump together first and second places, and by far the dominant metric this forum uses in balance discussions is first-place results.
IMO, only looking at 1st place wins and excluding everything else is a terrible metric for balancing.
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Northern Ireland26714 Posts
On February 28 2022 09:17 Athenau wrote:Show nested quote +
And the reason there's more S-class tier zerg players than Zerg/Terran is because of how korean military service/retirement worked out. Of the big pros in the last few years we lost Stats, TY, Innovation, soO. We also lost classic, hero, Byun, Parting, who all tried to make comebacks but we know how that goes and we've never seen a post-military person re-reach their prior level (yet - I'm still hopeful for Classic/herO). Of these 8 individuals only one was Zerg, and him, soO, was inconsistent at best.
This is incredibly disingenuous given that 1. Zerg has dominated for the past three years, not just 2021. 2. Ty and Innovation weren't doing well before they left for military service. 3. There's no magical debuff upon returning from the military. Byun, Hero and Classic have been out for more than enough time to get back in shape.
2. TY put in the best results he had in years prior to going to military. Maybe not immediately before, but in the period he knew it was coming. Stats had dropped a bit before military, but Classic’s results were really solid.
3. For whatever reason, nobody’s managed to get back to their former glories post-military. Except Zoun, but he took service early and he’d never really broken through as a top tier player prior to service, so presumably had unfinished business.
They’re the strongest at the highest level, we’ll see how military goes and when the likes of Trap go. If you take Dark and Rogue out of Code S I don’t think there’s a Zerg capable of winning it
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Simple cause terran has the least amount of S tier players
Zerg’s BiG 4 has always been the best players in the world by a margin for a while now
But carry on with the usual terran whining after every tournament
When terran wins its because “Mary and Clem GOdLike”
When terran lose its “oP Toss and Zerg”
Don’t terran fan boys get tired? Cause the rest of us sure do
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On February 28 2022 09:23 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 09:17 Athenau wrote:
And the reason there's more S-class tier zerg players than Zerg/Terran is because of how korean military service/retirement worked out. Of the big pros in the last few years we lost Stats, TY, Innovation, soO. We also lost classic, hero, Byun, Parting, who all tried to make comebacks but we know how that goes and we've never seen a post-military person re-reach their prior level (yet - I'm still hopeful for Classic/herO). Of these 8 individuals only one was Zerg, and him, soO, was inconsistent at best.
This is incredibly disingenuous given that 1. Zerg has dominated for the past three years, not just 2021. 2. Ty and Innovation weren't doing well before they left for military service. 3. There's no magical debuff upon returning from the military. Byun, Hero and Classic have been out for more than enough time to get back in shape. 2. TY put in the best results he had in years prior to going to military. Maybe not immediately before, but in the period he knew it was coming. Stats had dropped a bit before military, but Classic’s results were really solid. 3. For whatever reason, nobody’s managed to get back to their former glories post-military. Except Zoun, but he took service early and he’d never really broken through as a top tier player prior to service, so presumably had unfinished business. They’re the strongest at the highest level, we’ll see how military goes and when the likes of Trap go. If you take Dark and Rogue out of Code S I don’t think there’s a Zerg capable of winning it
Ty's last win was his GSL victory 7 months before he entered the military. He accomplished nothing of note in that period, so I think it's safe to say that he wouldn't have made a difference to the state of affairs in the latter half of 2021 had he not retired.
Byun won a major tournament a few months after he got out. Parting had arguably the best results of his career after returning from his LoL hiatus. The reason that the returnees aren't dominant isn't because they've lost their mojo, it's because the game is dominated by Zerg, and has been since 2018.
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Yep guys it's normal for there to be four players of one race that are favored against the best players of the other races who have been playing on the big stage since they were 13 years old.
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On February 28 2022 09:45 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Yep guys it's normal for there to be four players of one race that are favored against the best players of the other races who have been playing on the big stage since they were 13 years old.
I mean now this conversation on your end just devolved into Maru fanboy-ism. At least engage in the conversation like Athenau.
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On February 28 2022 09:48 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 09:45 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Yep guys it's normal for there to be four players of one race that are favored against the best players of the other races who have been playing on the big stage since they were 13 years old. I mean now this conversation on your end just devolved into Maru fanboy-ism. At least engage in the conversation like Athenau.
tell me any player that is equal or better odds against the top 4 zergs that win every IEM and world championship since 2017?
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This is all a cunning master plan by the Overmind to divide Raynor and Zeratul bros to continue the swarm domination...
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On February 28 2022 09:59 honorablemacroterran wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 09:48 Pandain wrote:On February 28 2022 09:45 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Yep guys it's normal for there to be four players of one race that are favored against the best players of the other races who have been playing on the big stage since they were 13 years old. I mean now this conversation on your end just devolved into Maru fanboy-ism. At least engage in the conversation like Athenau. tell me any player that is equal or better odds against the top 4 zergs that win every IEM and world championship since 2017?
Since 2021 Maru is 21-16 against Rogue. He's 14-10 against Dark. He's 10-10 against Serral. He's 11-10 against Reynor
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On February 28 2022 10:05 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 09:59 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 28 2022 09:48 Pandain wrote:On February 28 2022 09:45 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Yep guys it's normal for there to be four players of one race that are favored against the best players of the other races who have been playing on the big stage since they were 13 years old. I mean now this conversation on your end just devolved into Maru fanboy-ism. At least engage in the conversation like Athenau. tell me any player that is equal or better odds against the top 4 zergs that win every IEM and world championship since 2017? Since 2021 Maru is 21-16 against Rogue. He's 14-10 against Dark. He's 10-10 against Serral. He's 11-10 against Reynor
From where are you getting your statistics? Clearly not the same place as ESL because they had Maru at 4-6 against Serral before their match.
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On February 28 2022 10:10 honorablemacroterran wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 10:05 Pandain wrote:On February 28 2022 09:59 honorablemacroterran wrote:On February 28 2022 09:48 Pandain wrote:On February 28 2022 09:45 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Yep guys it's normal for there to be four players of one race that are favored against the best players of the other races who have been playing on the big stage since they were 13 years old. I mean now this conversation on your end just devolved into Maru fanboy-ism. At least engage in the conversation like Athenau. tell me any player that is equal or better odds against the top 4 zergs that win every IEM and world championship since 2017? Since 2021 Maru is 21-16 against Rogue. He's 14-10 against Dark. He's 10-10 against Serral. He's 11-10 against Reynor From where are you getting your statistics? Clearly not the same place as ESL because they had Maru at 4-6 against Serral before their match.
Aligulac. I'm sure there's a more direct way to do it but go here http://aligulac.com/inference/ and put in your two players, then below the prediction it shows you the match history.
Btw: ESL statistic might be series - but I think games is equally if not more valuable.
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Why would you use game statistics instead of series statistics when the top level is about series play, especially bo5+.
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Northern Ireland26714 Posts
On February 28 2022 09:37 Athenau wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 09:23 WombaT wrote:On February 28 2022 09:17 Athenau wrote:
And the reason there's more S-class tier zerg players than Zerg/Terran is because of how korean military service/retirement worked out. Of the big pros in the last few years we lost Stats, TY, Innovation, soO. We also lost classic, hero, Byun, Parting, who all tried to make comebacks but we know how that goes and we've never seen a post-military person re-reach their prior level (yet - I'm still hopeful for Classic/herO). Of these 8 individuals only one was Zerg, and him, soO, was inconsistent at best.
This is incredibly disingenuous given that 1. Zerg has dominated for the past three years, not just 2021. 2. Ty and Innovation weren't doing well before they left for military service. 3. There's no magical debuff upon returning from the military. Byun, Hero and Classic have been out for more than enough time to get back in shape. 2. TY put in the best results he had in years prior to going to military. Maybe not immediately before, but in the period he knew it was coming. Stats had dropped a bit before military, but Classic’s results were really solid. 3. For whatever reason, nobody’s managed to get back to their former glories post-military. Except Zoun, but he took service early and he’d never really broken through as a top tier player prior to service, so presumably had unfinished business. They’re the strongest at the highest level, we’ll see how military goes and when the likes of Trap go. If you take Dark and Rogue out of Code S I don’t think there’s a Zerg capable of winning it Ty's last win was his GSL victory 7 months before he entered the military. He accomplished nothing of note in that period, so I think it's safe to say that he wouldn't have made a difference to the state of affairs in the latter half of 2021 had he not retired. Byun won a major tournament a few months after he got out. Parting had arguably the best results of his career after returning from his LoL hiatus. The reason that the returnees aren't dominant isn't because they've lost their mojo, it's because the game is dominated by Zerg, and has been since 2018.
TY got Ro4 in a Super Tournament and DHack Last Chance after his GSL win. Nothing to shout from the rooftops from but given the paucity of current Terran results you’d take another player making runs like that in brackets now. I think TY won that GSL and had a good year because his military was due, not in spite of mind. It seemed to focus him on getting over the line, whereas Inno seemed long burned out and had accomplished all he really wanted to already.
From the Protoss perspective, Trap and Zest have carried Protoss for donkeys, with Zoun chipping in if the tournament is called Super Tournament.
In a non-military world I’m not sure if the likes of Stats, Classic, TY, herO are necessarily going to be always threatening for championships, or at their peak. But, they sure as hell make brackets harder for anyone, even the big 4 Zergs. Stats and Serral had a period of intense rivalry where Stats took him out in that (Assembly?) memorably, Classic’s legendary shadow strike clutch build, TY’s set planning in GSL etc.
Do they win Katowice? Not necessarily but be it groups, or playoffs those guys are good enough to at least thin the herd. Heromarine had a miracle run too this time, which was great to see. But I think most of us who longed for a non-Zerg champion had our hopes of Maru negotiating a TvZ gauntlet vs whoever of the big 4 he had to face, or a Zerg champion.
You have that extra depth, the potential for someone to have a good series and take those guys out gets higher. I’d still favour the big 4 to take home a Katowice on balance, but we could at least see some more racial variety in the brackets.
I think Byun looked a better player when he did take that tournament quite shorty after returning than he is now. He doesn’t seem to have a motivation issue, on all likelihood the wrists have stopped him getting closer to his former glory.
Gumiho hasn’t done anything, Classic and herO have showed some flashes. DRG can make a run if all he’s got to play is ZvT. Zoun and Dream took their military early, Zoun is probably the one player who’s done better post military than before and Dream has been decent and made some good runs, while not quite matching the form that gave him a Starleague silver.
I don’t see any reason why a military returnee can’t return to their absolute peak, provided the motivation is there, but end of the day nobody’s really properly done it. Minus Zoun
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Northern Ireland26714 Posts
For the record I think it’s possible that Zerg either through their raw balance numbers or the map pool/a combination of the two are a bit too strong at the top level, Reynor/Serral/Dark/Rogue being amongst the outright best 5/6 players in the world, and that Terran/Protoss have suffered more from retirements and military, can be simultaneously all true to varying degrees.
If Protoss wasn’t strong enough, especially in PvZ to take a Code S or a World Championship when Stats and Classic were in shape, or subsequently when Trap had his tremendous year and Zest did his miracle runs, how the hell are they going to do it when Zest is gone, Trap seems to be on his way out, Stats is still in military and Classic and herO aren’t quite back to prior glories?
On the flip side, Zergs outside the big 4 haven’t really done a huge amount in the past few years, those players are clearly amazing at the game. How do you nerf Zerg that 1/2% to make them less dominant while not having that trickle down to basically every other Zerg pro?
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On February 28 2022 10:18 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Why would you use game statistics instead of series statistics when the top level is about series play, especially bo5+.
Games won is a better indication of how players match up against each other. If Serral wins three best of threes against Maru 2-1, and then lost to Maru 4-0 twice in two best of sevens (3-2 series Serral, 6-10 in games) I'm not sure its fair to say that Serral is favored versus Maru next time they play. At the very least, merely stating series is not the full story.
But let's even go to series for Maru. Since 2021, Maru is 3-4 in series against Serral, 4-3-1 against Dark, 6-4 againt Rogue, and 4-3 against Reynor. So same story.
And I literally just picked another player, Zest. Since 2011, Zest is 4-4 in Series against Reynor and 11-12 in games. He's 6-5 in series against Dark and 20-23 in games. Zest and Rogue play a ton so I'm not doing all the math, but in the last six months he's 7-0 (!!!) against Rogue in series and 20-7 in games. Zest is 2-4 in series against Serral and 6-9 in games.
So it's clear Zest and Maru, literally just the first two I explored, are indeed very competitive against all of the top zergs with the exception of Zest versus Serral (but, conversely, Zest absolutely smokes Rogue).
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On February 28 2022 07:31 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Terran is actually the worst if you got rid of just Maru it would be extremely obvious that Terran is the weakest race at the pro level. Best Terran player is underdog against top 4 zergs.
no they're not, if you get rid of Maru then it's only fair that Protoss gets rid of Trap.
AT LEAST Cure won GSL and Clem won EU
P= Zest winning 1 tourney (and Neeb winning NA which is negligible)
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On February 28 2022 10:53 WombaT wrote:
On the flip side, Zergs outside the big 4 haven’t really done a huge amount in the past few years, those players are clearly amazing at the game. How do you nerf Zerg that 1/2% to make them less dominant while not having that trickle down to basically every other Zerg pro?
Plenty of Zergs outside of the top 4 have made finals runs or even won the occasional tournament in the last few years. Why would you expect anymore than that for the 5th best player of a race? Players like soO, Solar, Elazer, and Lambo have all done a hell of a lot more than the 5th best T/P players.
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On February 28 2022 11:45 AzAlexZ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 07:31 honorablemacroterran wrote:
Terran is actually the worst if you got rid of just Maru it would be extremely obvious that Terran is the weakest race at the pro level. Best Terran player is underdog against top 4 zergs. no they're not, if you get rid of Maru then it's only fair that Protoss gets rid of Trap. AT LEAST Cure won GSL and Clem won EU P= Zest winning 1 tourney (and Neeb winning NA which is negligible)
But you can't also discount the number of time Zest and Zoun came in 2nd place, and were within striking distance of winning a Premier tournament in 2021/2022: Premier Tournaments. For Zoun, he came in 2nd place twice in the GSL Super Tournament, albeit, he was stopped by Trap in the finals. For Zest, he got the the finals of IEM Katowice in 2021, and he also got to the finals of GSL Season 3 in 2021.
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Nerf lurker, queen, nydus, ghost, carrier
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On February 28 2022 11:46 JJH777 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 10:53 WombaT wrote:
On the flip side, Zergs outside the big 4 haven’t really done a huge amount in the past few years, those players are clearly amazing at the game. How do you nerf Zerg that 1/2% to make them less dominant while not having that trickle down to basically every other Zerg pro?
Plenty of Zergs outside of the top 4 have made finals runs or even won the occasional tournament in the last few years. Why would you expect anymore than that for the 5th best player of a race? Players like soO, Solar, Elazer, and Lambo have all done a hell of a lot more than the 5th best T/P players.
But this brings us back to the same problem as before - the reason you have a quick drop off in player level for T/P is that most of the retirees over the past few years have been T/P.
I think that's pretty undisputed. And once you acknowledge that and instead try to think "how are A-tier Terrans/Protosses doing compared to A-tier Zergs" - I don't think it's true at all that Solar/Elazer/Lambo perform better, relatively speaking, than Zoun/Byun/Cure. And in fact, even the opposite, because Byun and Cure have both won things.
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EPT
