Following his 3-2 victory against Zest in the Code S quarterfinals, Rogue remarked that he had a tough match coming up against Korea's #2 Zerg in Dark. Rogue followed by saying he had to rate Solar as #1—if only for the sake of kissing-up and convincing Solar to help him practice for the match.
A GSL/Korean elitist fan might have laughed at that joke before breaking down into uncontrollable sobbing. What Rogue left unsaid was far more important. 'Since, haha, there's only like three good Zergs in Korea. And, uhhh, that's on a good day.' continued Rogue, in an imaginary inner monologue.
Honestly, Korea's Zerg problem didn't feel THAT big until a month ago. The theory was that Europe was overpopulated with strong Zerg players, forcing them through a fiery ZvZ crucible that gave them disproportionate power in a single match-up. In reality, players like Rogue and Dark always seemed to stomp them all the same. Serral was just an outlier in the foreigner-verse, and one could argue that the gap hadn't really closed between top Koreans and the EU-Zerg pack. Then, Elazer 3-2'd Dark out of the Ro16 in GSL vs. The World. In an instant, Lambo's assertions that Korean Zergs don't know how to play ZvZ went from something you might laugh off to an "oh f***, he might be right" type of deal.
Even if you dismiss Dark vs Elazer as a one-series sample, it is interesting to think about how locking up Solar as a practice partner could be an actual, serious advantage. Who else are Rogue and Dark supposed to call upon? Impact? RagnaroK? Would they hit-up NoRegret and inquire about who was staying at the foreigner house? "Hey, Scarlett, Dark here. Biiiig fan."
Predicting ZvZ between top players has always felt like a crapshoot, but recent matches suggest that Rogue might have an edge if the games go late. The vaunted EU ZvZ late-game only factored in for one game of Elazer vs Dark, but that one game did make it seem like Dark was completely exposed when it came down to Lurker-Viper play. In contrast, Rogue clinched first place in his Ro16 group against Solar by outplaying him in the late-game, although it could be said that it was more Solar's fault that he instantly crumbled to a single Hydra-Lurker drop. Of course, one has to wonder how many of these games will go late at all—even with macro-favoring maps like Thunderbird in the pool, we might just see a blitz of Speedling rushes and Nydus timings end the series regardless.
The obligatory Aligulac.com deep dive doesn't offer much insight. The two haven't played a meaningful head-to-head match since 2018, and they're close to 50-50 against each other anyway. For Dark, who avoids online play almost entirely (outside of qualifiers), the lack of Korean Zergs is reflected in his limited 2019 stats: He's 11-5 in matches on ths year, and a mere 5-3 when you reduce it to inter-Korean matches. Rogue's fondness for online play gives us more to go by, as he's put up a 26-14 record on the year, which goes down to 19-11 when limited to inter-Koraen competition. Rogue does seem to be building some momentum in the match-up, as he's currently on an eight-match ZvZ winning streak (although, the fact that the streak includes a win against frequently-banned TL.net poster Ej_ does force me to rethink the general premise of including Aligulac.com stats at all).
Finally, a note on mentality. Dark is typically the loud-mouthed, boisterous player in a given match-up, but this time the tables are oddly reversed. Dark admitted that Zest would have been an easier opponent, speaking of his ZvZ as a work-in-progress with surmounting Serral as the eventual goal. On the other hand, Rogue confidently brought up his undefeated record in offline best-of-seven series (4/4, in the finals of IEM Katowice, BlizzCon, Super Tournament II, and IEM Shanghai), saying that he becomes a different man once he reaches that stage of a tournament. Will Rogue's confidence be justified? Or will a humbled Dark prove to be the most dangerous version of Dark? We'll know the answer soon enough.
On September 18 2019 04:22 TL.net ESPORTS wrote: Although, the fact that the streak includes a win against frequently-banned TL.net poster Ej_ does force me to rethink the general premise of including Aligulac.com stats at all.
I'll have you know Ej_ had a build order win and almost took a map!
Also I like how the preview just dismisses soO as even an option.
On September 18 2019 04:22 TL.net ESPORTS wrote: Although, the fact that the streak includes a win against frequently-banned TL.net poster Ej_ does force me to rethink the general premise of including Aligulac.com stats at all.
I'll have you know Ej_ had a build order win and almost took a map!
Also I like how the preview just dismisses soO as even an option.
If Rogue is training against Solar, I wonder against whom Dark is. And yes, I guess it's not slumping soO...
On September 18 2019 04:22 TL.net ESPORTS wrote: Although, the fact that the streak includes a win against frequently-banned TL.net poster Ej_ does force me to rethink the general premise of including Aligulac.com stats at all.
I'll have you know Ej_ had a build order win and almost took a map!
Also I like how the preview just dismisses soO as even an option.
If Rogue is training against Solar, I wonder against whom Dark is. And yes, I guess it's not slumping soO...
Dark is practicing against A.I. as usual of course /s
On September 18 2019 04:52 Moonerz wrote: Getting way ahead of myself here, but if Dark wins back to back GSLs would that diminish Maru's streak?
Four in a row is much more impressive than two. But given that Maru was the first in like seven years to accomplish it, yes it would diminish his achievement somewhat.
On the subject of this match though, Rogue beats Dark in ZvZ if he's in form. But maybe ro8 Rogue was just late who knows
If ByuL can drop a map to a diamond player in a qualifier right before beating Dark to Ro4 a GSL supertournament I don't see why Ej_ couldn't take a map off Dark.
should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
On September 18 2019 04:52 Moonerz wrote: Getting way ahead of myself here, but if Dark wins back to back GSLs would that diminish Maru's streak?
not at all, why would it?
did reynor winning 2 wcs events this year diminish serrals 4 from last year? or neebs 3 wcs wins in 2017?
Nothing against WCS and all but Reynor winning them wouldn't really diminish the streaj because honestly they didn't have much value in the first place.
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
It depends on the tournament. For WCS Montreal you could have predicted most of the top 8 and the result of all the matches in the top 8 before the tournament even started.
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
It depends on the tournament. For WCS Montreal you could have predicted most of the top 8 and the result of all the matches in the top 8 before the tournament even started.
yeah but i mean in the gsl. like x player vs y player. i feel like there are so many variables and even though we know a lot about the players we are constantly surprised. who saw ragnorak rising up??
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
It depends on the tournament. For WCS Montreal you could have predicted most of the top 8 and the result of all the matches in the top 8 before the tournament even started.
yeah but i mean in the gsl. like x player vs y player. i feel like there are so many variables and even though we know a lot about the players we are constantly surprised. who saw ragnorak rising up??
Well there have always been a few upsets. Based on Liquibets I don't think things are particularly different from previous GSLs. And the favourites did win every ro8 match.
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
It depends on the tournament. For WCS Montreal you could have predicted most of the top 8 and the result of all the matches in the top 8 before the tournament even started.
yeah but i mean in the gsl. like x player vs y player. i feel like there are so many variables and even though we know a lot about the players we are constantly surprised. who saw ragnorak rising up??
Well there have always been a few upsets. Based on Liquibets I don't think things are particularly different from previous GSLs. And the favourites did win every ro8 match.
that the favorites won is insane in itself though, isn't it?? i am always looking to pick upsets based on what i see but calling sc2 is very hard. my liquibet is like 60% but it should be much lower. at this point i feel like i'm just throwing darts
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
It depends on the tournament. For WCS Montreal you could have predicted most of the top 8 and the result of all the matches in the top 8 before the tournament even started.
yeah but i mean in the gsl. like x player vs y player. i feel like there are so many variables and even though we know a lot about the players we are constantly surprised. who saw ragnorak rising up??
Well there have always been a few upsets. Based on Liquibets I don't think things are particularly different from previous GSLs. And the favourites did win every ro8 match.
that the favorites won is insane in itself though, isn't it?? i am always looking to pick upsets based on what i see but calling sc2 is very hard. my liquibet is like 60% but it should be much lower. at this point i feel like i'm just throwing darts
Not really. The favourites all winning is the most likely outcome (though no individual outcome is 'likely' generally speaking). Let's just say that personally I don't feel like the amount of upsets has changed much, and the top Liquibetters are getting 70-something % of the points which is what usually happens.
On September 18 2019 10:51 ZigguratOfUr wrote: If ByuL can drop a map to a diamond player in a qualifier right before beating Dark to Ro4 a GSL supertournament I don't see why Ej_ couldn't take a map off Dark.
Because Dark is a much better player than that freud patchzerg that barely beat an inactive low master spine rushing him.
On September 18 2019 10:51 ZigguratOfUr wrote: If ByuL can drop a map to a diamond player in a qualifier right before beating Dark to Ro4 a GSL supertournament I don't see why Ej_ couldn't take a map off Dark.
Because Dark is a much better player than that freud patchzerg that barely beat an inactive low master spine rushing him.
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
I can predict Serral to win. And Reynor to win vs any not-Serral foreigner.
E: I guess a bit less flippant: just predict favourites win and you'll be right most of the time and wrong some. Just as it has always been. I guess the main difference is that with Maru's return to earth, it's hard to point out anybody who is really a clear favourite in Korea... and ZvZ is a hard mirror to predict without Nestea or Life towering above the rest of their race.
On September 18 2019 10:54 Alejandrisha wrote: should be a good series. i'm afraid to predict a winner because i know it will cause my pick to lose. can people actually predict sc2 outcomes anymore? it seems like a coinflip every time
I can predict Serral to win. And Reynor to win vs any not-Serral foreigner.
E: I guess a bit less flippant: just predict favourites win and you'll be right most of the time and wrong some. Just as it has always been. I guess the main difference is that with Maru's return to earth, it's hard to point out anybody who is really a clear favourite in Korea... and ZvZ is a hard mirror to predict without Nestea or Life towering above the rest of their race.
Unless it's the beginning of a slump it's quite easy to predict if you know the player.
e.g. Dark, Trap, ZestvP, Maru, Stats. But sometimes their enemies can surprise - Patience is a good example. Many "Korean elitists" were warning everybody that Patience can surprise. And he did.
EPT![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/2019/codes3/gslbracket2.png)
