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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Anyway, so your point is that Inno had a better chance at beating Stats, ByuN, and TY, than Neeb did at beating Scarlett, Snute, and True? Seriously? Stats and TY have eliminated Inno from tournaments this year lol. Litterally no one thought that scarlett, true, or snute had a chance against Neeb. He's levels above any of them. Snute, Scarlett, and True have all performed okay in their regions, but nothing special. Stats and TY are champions | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
To use your metaphor, Neeb thrashed the JV team and Inno pummeled the varsity. According to you, Inno's accomplishment is less impressive because the rest of the varsity team was weak relative to himself? Doesn't that just put him even higher? So something like (not to scale): Inno .... .... Koreans ..... Neeb ..... Foreigners somehow means that Neeb is more impressive than Inno  | ||
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DieuCure
France3713 Posts
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FrkFrJss
Canada1208 Posts
On September 15 2017 04:01 Fango wrote: Again, blindly reading aligulac isn't a perfect analysis, winrates aren't everything. Players play against different opponents, some more than others. For example, is ByuN should be one of the best korean players because his winrates are always so high right? Not even close. It's easy to play in tons of events and inflate your win%. Whereas someone like TY almost exclusively plays in big money tournaments against the hardest opponents. Even if he has a 50-60% winrates that's damn good. Anyway, so your point is that Inno had a better chance at beating Stats, ByuN, and TY, than Neeb did at beating Scarlett, Snute, and True? Seriously? Stats and TY have eliminated Inno from tournaments this year lol. Litterally no one thought that scarlett, true, or snute had a chance against Neeb. He's levels above any of them. Snute, Scarlett, and True have all performed okay in their regions, but nothing special. Stats and TY are champions Actually...TY has not eliminated Inno from a tournament this year, and they haven't really played each other much this year. As for Stats, it's been back and forth this year, but Inno has a bit better winrate. As for Byun, I would say that he is one of the best Korean players. His weakest matchup is against Terran, with his other matchups being far ahead. GSL 1 Ro32, lost 1-2 to Stats, lost 1-2 to Ryung GSL 2 ro8, lost 1-3 to Maru GSL 3 ro8, lost 2-3 to Inno The other matches he's lost this have been to a combination of Protoss and Terran in the SSL Premier league, but he has been playing really well in SSL Challenge Season 2, and his only match loss in Challenge Season 2 was to Bunny, who is another TvT. And the other losses were to Dark in the Afreeca ST, Rogue in Shanghai, Stats in Katowice. So while he has not performed amazingly well this year, he's mainly been held back by TvT. So I looked at the offline matches, and both Byun and TY have fairly similar offline winrates (59% versus 55%), and the primary difference both in WCS points and tournaments is that TY won against Maru in WESG, and TY won against Stats in the IEM World Championships. But aside from from that, they've both been similarly consistent in SSL and in the GSL with the exception that TY had one more ro8 finish than Byun. So even though on head to head, Innovation was not overly favoured against TY, Byun, and Stats, based on his historical form in 2017 and their historical form in 2017, I would have given him higher odds of winning than losing. So I realize that someone's historical form does not necessarily give them an advantage against another opponent, but I think it is valuable for determining "how good is this player in general against another race," and seeing as it was a short tournament, and not as huge of a preparation one, that gives Inno the edge as he is in general better at TvT. And for Snute, TRUE, and Scarlett, Scarlett had evenly traded series against, and had a fairly decent historical winrate. As for Snute, I think it is rather unfair to say that Neeb is levels above Snute. Neeb is definitely better than Snute, but Snute has done well against Neeb this year, and Snute has had generally good ZvP. On September 15 2017 04:20 pvsnp wrote: I fail to understand how being a big fish in a small pond is somehow more impressive than being a shark in the ocean. To use your metaphor, Neeb thrashed the JV team and Inno pummeled the varsity. According to you, Inno's accomplishment is less impressive because the rest of the varsity team was weak relative to himself? Doesn't that just put him even higher? So something like (not to scale): Inno .... .... Koreans ..... Neeb ..... Foreigners somehow means that Neeb is more impressive than Inno Actually, that model is a good representation of how I felt with regards to those tournaments. If Inno is 3 levels above the Koreans he was facing, and Neeb was 2 levels above the foreigners that he was playing, that means that the degree to which Neeb was better than the foreigners is less than than the degree at which Inno was better than his opponents. So if Inno is 100, then the people he was facing was at 40. Whereas If Neeb was at 100, then the people he was facing was at 60. Thus the difference is 60 for Inno and 40 for Neeb. Even though Neeb was the favourite to win it, I don't think anyone realistically predicted him losing just two maps in the entire tournament. | ||
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Bayaz90
54 Posts
Maybe one day Neeb can be king of the ashes, but to me he will never approach Stephano as the best foreigner, who did it during a time the scene was still striving and players still had hope. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
You realise Inno has simply won slightly more than Stats or TY this year this year. Whereas Neeb has won almost everything against the foreigners. If you're judging their play in their relative regions (like you said), then comparing Scarlett, True, and Snute to Neeb. It's 0 wins to 3. He is miles ahead of any of them. Stats and TY are only slightly behind Inno, he's not "3 levels" ahead of them, he loses to both of them sometimes. Inno>Stats and TY Neeb>>>>>>>>>Scarlett, True, and Snute (it would be closer against Serral or Elazer or Special maybe) | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On September 15 2017 06:02 Bayaz90 wrote: Blizzard banning Koreans from tournaments dealt a mortal blow to the Korean scene and shortly after we saw KeSPA disband and a huge wave of retirements. After this Blizzcon I have a feeling you will see many of the top Korean players retire. Maybe one day Neeb can be king of the ashes, but to me he will never approach Stephano as the best foreigner, who did it during a time the scene was still striving and players still had hope. Stephano actually won against the koreans that's the difference Most koreans will wait to see the WCS system for next year, how many tournaments etc | ||
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LDaVinci
France130 Posts
On September 15 2017 01:03 pvsnp wrote: Neeb's run at Montreal was very impressive but not unprecedented since all his opponents were foreigners. Both Maru and TY made similar runs at WESG, with TY dropping a few maps to foreigners and Maru dropping zero (he lost 4 to TY though). Neeb outclasses almost all of the foreign scene by a huge margin. Beating the crap out of foreigners like Scarlett, True, and Snute is cool but not all that amazing. Compare his run to Inno's at GSL vs the World, which was 14-1 over guys like ByuN, Stats, and TY. This is where you misunderstand me and where you are blinded by your own convictions. I'm not saying that Neeb is better than Maru accross SC2. I would rank Maru above him in a best players of all time. I'm saying, right now, I'm not so sure he is better. As for the run, sure, mainly foreigners, but the foreign level has never been that high. Sure it has precedent, I don't denie. But still the performance is probably top five world, includin Koreans. Not a lot of them would have lost only two maps. And for other arguments I read, the statement that Neeb is probably top 20 world, top 5 protoss has nothing to do with being a fanboy, cause I'm really not. I would be a Stephano fanboy anyday though. I just hate the argument of "Neeb isn't korean therefore he is a lesser player than average korean masters". It doesn't make sens. There is no comparison point because clause to no games between koreans and foreigners. Blizzcon alone isn't a good indicator, whether he loses first game or win the final. He could lose to the top player and still being second or just having a bad day, or win it because of incredible form but not actually being the best player. Consitancy over several games, tournaments, and statistics are the only relevant indicator. Unless next year we have 10 global tournaments, there is no way we can compare players. Sure average foreign pros are likely to be lesser players than low tier koreans. But ranking Neeb, Scarlett, Major, Snute, Nerchio, Elazer, Showtime and Serral (and I prob forgot 1 or 2) as low korean level just because they are foreigner is brutal and not based on any reasoning. I wouldn't think those players are all top 20. but who are you ranking above them ? Jjakji ? Creator ? hurricane ? I'm just saying, putting them all out of the top 20 like some korean fanboys are doing is absurd cause there is no comparison point. I don't think any korean less than top 5 would have made Neebs run, and maybe none would have win 3 WCS like he did. A bad game is fast to happen especially against the top foreigners who all showed they were able to take games and series to top koreans. Adding to that Neeb did win a korean tournament at a time where it seemed impossible. And still Charoisaur is considering putting him only in top 100 korea (I mean between 80-100) | ||
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Ej_
47656 Posts
On September 15 2017 17:33 LDaVinci wrote: But ranking Neeb, Scarlett, Major, Snute, Nerchio, Elazer, Showtime and Serral (and I prob forgot 1 or 2) as low korean level just because they are foreigner is brutal and not based on any reasoning. I wouldn't think those players are all top 20. but who are you ranking above them ? Jjakji ? Creator ? hurricane ? Daily reminder tha Hurricane beat Neeb twice to qualify for Code S. | ||
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LDaVinci
France130 Posts
On September 15 2017 17:51 Ej_ wrote: Daily reminder tha Hurricane beat Neeb twice to qualify for Code S. Yeah because that's how you rank people, by only looking at two times they met. So you purposely ignored my full post, saying that a serie doesn't mean anything. I don't know if you watch soccer, but it is not uncommon for much lesser teams to beat top level teams. Does it mean they are better, I wouldn't say so. It just means that day they performed better. Often you can see middle tier teams reaching quarter finals or Ro16 of European soccer competition. Doesn't mean anything if in the same time they aren't able to erform in their own championship. Same for SC2 players. Ranking people has to be based on statistics not just one or two games. Or else you would put Iasonu above Inno because of that one time he won against him... In that regard, I would put Neeb way above hurricane. But that is only speculation, as I said previously because there is a lack of interaction between the two regions. It is actually impossible to rank accurately the players. We can have some ideas. Yes top five is probably owned by only koreans. but I wouldn't bet on that for top 20. | ||
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shell
Portugal2722 Posts
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Ej_
47656 Posts
On September 15 2017 18:06 LDaVinci wrote: Yeah because that's how you rank people, by only looking at two times they met Well Hurricane also knocked Scarlett out of the same Code S. | ||
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FrkFrJss
Canada1208 Posts
On September 15 2017 18:37 Ej_ wrote: Well Hurricane also knocked Scarlett out of the same Code S. He's the NA Curious. | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
Hurricane the Foreignslayer | ||
nimdil
Poland3775 Posts
On September 15 2017 04:01 Fango wrote: Again, blindly reading aligulac isn't a perfect analysis, winrates aren't everything. Players play against different opponents, some more than others. For example, is ByuN should be one of the best korean players because his winrates are always so high right? Not even close. It's easy to play in tons of events and inflate your win%. Whereas someone like TY almost exclusively plays in big money tournaments against the hardest opponents. Even if he has a 50-60% winrates that's damn good. Anyway, so your point is that Inno had a better chance at beating Stats, ByuN, and TY, than Neeb did at beating Scarlett, Snute, and True? Seriously? Stats and TY have eliminated Inno from tournaments this year lol. Litterally no one thought that scarlett, true, or snute had a chance against Neeb. He's levels above any of them. Snute, Scarlett, and True have all performed okay in their regions, but nothing special. Stats and TY are champions That's not how it works, Aligulac rating is not winrates. If you win against opponents with rating significantly lower than you, than it contributes to your ranking very little - but if you happen to loose to any of them it will contribute quite significantly. | ||
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nimdil
Poland3775 Posts
On September 15 2017 18:31 shell wrote: Neeb is now probably the best foreigner of all time? Are Federer/Nadal greater than Rod Laver? Different eras, different challenges. Probably most accomplished, though. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On September 18 2017 04:04 nimdil wrote: That's not how it works, Aligulac rating is not winrates. If you win against opponents with rating significantly lower than you, than it contributes to your ranking very little - but if you happen to loose to any of them it will contribute quite significantly. You misunderstand. The other guy was litterally using the winrates from aligulac, not the ratings. That's what I was refering to. And the rating aligulac gives players isn't entirely accurate either, although it is decent at comparing play level in the same region. | ||
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nimdil
Poland3775 Posts
On September 18 2017 04:22 Fango wrote: You misunderstand. The other guy was litterally using the winrates from aligulac, not the ratings. That's what I was refering to. And the rating aligulac gives players isn't entirely accurate either, although it is decent at comparing play level in the same region. I stand corrected. | ||
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