Playoffs in Sight

Once more, we’ve reached the closing stages of a round, and once more, the seven team format means that we’re down a match this week. While I think it’s fair to say that more Proleague is always better, all three matches this week will have a profound impact on the playoff hunt. The Afreeca Freecs are out of the running this Round with their 0-5 record, and are taking the week off. SKT are looking to bounce back from their second regular season loss to Jin Air in a row, against a Samsung team that desperately needs a win to keep their playoff dreams alive. Jin Air themselves will look to match SKT’s flawless round from Round 3 of Proleague 2015 (albeit playing one game fewer), but playing a weakened squad against CJ shows their long-term focus. The big match of the week though is KT Rolster up against a resurgent MVP. Both teams are exactly tied after four matches (2-2 record, with 8-7 map score), and a win here would all but seal a playoff spot for either team.

Five Conclusions

1. After an extremely sloppy round, SKT have finally fallen. Jin Air were deserved winners on the night, spearheaded by an excellent TvZ display from Maru against Dark. There were a couple of questionable decisions from the SKT zerg, who abandoned the quick hive transition to ultralisks that’s served him well so far, and perhaps his decision to hide a hatchery in the bottom right of Dusk Towers stretched him too thin. Classic struck back in his second PvP win since his comeback, against a poor sOs, but Rogue and Trap closed out the series against soO and Dream (Trap vs Dream was one of the best games of the week, and deserves to be seen). This is the first time that SKT haven’t topped the standings since Round 2 of 2015. Given that that ‘failure’ was followed up by a flawless Round 3, it’ll be interesting to see how they respond.
   
   
2. Elsewhere, MVP continued their return to form after their disappointing Round 1. Mainstays GuMiho and Ryung won their TvTs in convincing fashion, taking easy wins against Journey and BrAvO respectively. Those two wins sandwiched one for Dear, who started the long process of rebuilding his PvP reputation with another one-sided stomp over Seed. Game 4 though featured some vintage Blaze gateway aggression though, massing adepts to walk right over a confused Armani. They’re currently tied for 3rd, and one win in their final two games (KT and Afreeca) should be enough to take them to the playoffs.
   
   
3. Comparing their Round 1 and Round 2 records, it’s easy to see why things are starting to click for MVP.
   
   Round 1:
   GuMiho: 3-3
   DeParture: 3-4
   Rest of MVP: 1-11
   
   Round 2:
   Blaze: 2-0
   Ryung: 3-1
   GuMiho: 3-2
   Rest of MVP: 0-4
   
   Having two players consistently taking wins simply isn’t enough (look at CJ in Round 1 for another example). Even if both GuMiho and DeParture picked up wins in the same week, they’d still need to clutch the win in the ace—something they’re still yet to do this year given that they’re 0-3 in the fifth set. It’s the fact that they have three players firing right now which is bringing them results, and should DeParture recover from his slump, MVP will be a team that no one takes lightly.
   
   
4. No team mirrored MVP’s woes in Round 1 more than CJ. Both were squads comprised of two players trying to carry the rest of the team, and with neither herO nor ByuL in peak form, CJ fell hard from their traditional status. They might still be struggling in Round 2 (2-3 record, with -4 map score), but they suddenly have hope again. herO has suddenly started to fire. In the past three weeks, he’s dragged CJ to the ace match three times, winning two and losing one to Dark. A 5-1 record, while his fellow ace calibre teammate ByuL has continued to struggle, failing to pick up a win on all three occasions. Should they manage to make the top four, CJ fans have one player in particular to thank.
   
   
5. From the highs of Round 1, to the lows of Round 2. Successful qualification for the playoffs first time round has been followed with an 0-5 start to Round 2. Afreeca are well and truly out of the running to match their achievement from last round; should they lose 0-3 tonight, it will have been a statistically worse round than MVP’s similar 0-6. The vast majority of their players simply have not performed at the same level. Curious (3-2 in R1, 0-2 in R2) and aLive (2-2, 0-3) have both failed to pick up a single win, while KeeN (2-1, 0-1) and Billowy (1-1, 0-1) have barely been given a chance, and new recruit Patience is sitting on a 1-3 record. Super (2-4, 2-2) and Bomber (1-0, 2-3) are the only two players with respectable records. You’d expect that in the downtime between rounds, there’ll be some serious bootcamping in the Afreeca teamhouse.
   

Samsung vs SKT

Reality <King Sejong Station> Classic

It’s a sign of SKT’s quality that they can simply bench Classic for a couple of months in Proleague with little effect on their results. Since his comeback, Classic has looked very impressive indeed, beating Zest and sOs in Proleague. That’s one of the boxes ticked then; time to look at another. Last time we saw Classic playing a terran, it was in his Code S Ro.32 group decider match against SpeeD. There, he was torn apart by the KT rookie, falling apart when confronted by his opponent’s strong ghost / liberator play. If there’s anything we know about Classic, it’s not to count him out. People wrote him off before his GSL win; people wrote him off after his GSL win; hell, people continued to write him off at BlizzCon last year even after his SSL triumph. Reality is one of the Samsung squad members quietly getting on with business in Proleague (5-3 so far this season), but up against a returning champion, it should be a tough night for him.

Dear <Lerilak Crest> MyuNgSiK

Set 2 features one of the most predictable players in the game against one of the least. We all know by now how Dear generally likes to play his PvPs—tech up to disruptors safely, and then exploit his top tier army control. On the other hand, MyuNgSiK has only played a single televised PvP this year—a loss to Stats in Proleague, where he bungled a lead after failing to cope with the KT protoss’ late game multitasking harass. He does have the benefit of seeing exactly how Zest dissected Dear in the GSL semifinals, but let’s be honest; while an in-form MyuNgSiK is certainly a threat, his strengths hardly tie in with those of Zest. Expect Dear to win, or MyuNgSiK to do something weird that ends up being confusingly effective.

Solar <Frost> Dark

Oh, look who’s back! It’s been almost a month since we last saw Solar offline; a month since his dreams fell apart in all three competitions. Dark and Stats beat him in the SSL, while soO and Cure bopped him with ease in the Code S Ro.16. Maru capped it off with his skyterran mech, beating a clearly confused Solar in Proleague. 5 matches, 5 losses, and a whole season of hope written off. Time for a comeback then, and who better to get revenge on than Dark? The zerg who started Solar’s slide is the one who’s here, ready to knock him back down again. Neither player has played too much offline ZvZ since that SSL Winners’ Final—Solar has the aforementioned 0-2 loss to soO, and Dark equally has a win against Curious and a loss to Losira in his own GSL group. With little to suggest things have changed in the meantime, it’s difficult to imagine a different result here.

BrAvO <Overgrowth> Impact

With the end of the round in sight, it’s time for Impact’s token Proleague appearance again. After some impressive cameos last year, beating ByuL and Reality, it’s not quite been the same this time round, and he lost against Rogue in his only match of the season. We haven’t even seen him in anything else—he lost to Solar in Code A, he fell in the SSL qualifiers, and he hasn’t even been playing in online events. We know nothing about him, other than the fact that he’s probably desperate to make this chance count in his 3rd match of 2016. BrAvO has been pretty patchy this year, but beating ByuL on King Sejong Station with clean tankivac play was impressive. Unless you believe that desperation will make Impact play better, BrAvO should be favoured.


Ace: <Dusk Towers>

Samsung have few options here—Dear is the only real option they have, unless they suddenly decide to put faith in Solar, or prep BrAvO for a TvZ snipe build should they suspect Dark coming out. He’s certainly the most likely option for SKT, with his incredible ZvP record, and he’s well-rounded enough to cope with anything Samsung can offer. Classic has an outside shot at the job, although given his PvZ woes, a potential match against Solar is risky.

Predictions

Reality < Classic
Dear > MyuNgSiK
Solar < Dark
BrAvO > Impact
Dear < Dark

Samsung 2 - 3 SKT

KT vs MVP

TY <Frost> DeParture

It’s clear that KT are desperate for Proleague success when they’re sending out TY and Zest the day after their GSL Finals. It’s pretty hard to imagine either the winner or loser on the night desperately scrambling home to practice for Proleague, and it seems that KT are simply gambling that their standard play will be good enough with minimal preparation. DeParture might not be in great form, but we’ve seen in the past how he can tailor builds specifically against predictable play (see his double roach warren strat he used against herO last year). I think TY’s standard TvZ is still good enough to win, but the MVP zerg’s definitely got a shot at the upset here.

jjakji <Overgrowth> GuMiho

Next up is yet another player we haven’t seen in ages. jjakji has been non-existent in Korean LotV. He put up a fair fight in Code A against Classic despite losing 0-3, and lost to Curious in his Proleague 2016 debut. Hardly the most auspicious of starts for his career on KT. Meanwhile GuMiho is in great form, and is fresh off a dominant win against Journey last week. Once again this week, it’s hard to pick the player with no results.

Zest <Dusk Towers> Ryung

You could pretty much copy and paste everything from the TY section here, except double down on the part where I predict the KT player to win. Zest’s PvT has looked bulletproof, and unless he has an unthinkable collapse on Finals day, there’s no way you can legitimately predict any terran in the world to beat him offline. Ryung has been playing really well lately, but that’s almost irrelevant. Zest is the de facto best player in the world, and should win here.

Stats <Orbital Shipyard> Blaze

Much like 2015, Stats has kicked off the year with a bang. A runners up medal in the SSL has come along with a great 10-5 record in Proleague so far (albeit alongside his traditional failure in Code A). That four of his five losses have come against terrans (two each to Maru and KeeN) shows his power in the other two matchups. Across the whole of Legacy so far, he’s dropped two matches of PvP so far—a Proleague loss to herO, and a loss to Dear all the way back in the GSL Preseason. Blaze certainly has upset potential, but Stats is the overwhelming favourite.

Ace:
<King Sejong Station>

KT could have prepped a non-TY/Zest ace player here, but given their team selection this week, dumping even more responsibility on their stars is clearly something they’re willing to do. On MVP’s side, it’s a shame that their top two players—Ryung and GuMiho—are both terrans, as Zest and TY both excel in PvT and TvT respectively. DeParture is probably the clever pick should we get to this stage.

Predictions

TY > DeParture
Jjakji < GuMiho
Zest > Ryung
Stats > Blaze

KT 3 - 1 MVP

CJ vs Jin Air

herO <Orbital Shipyard> Creator

Of all the players herO would’ve wanted to meet in Proleague, Creator is probably the worst case scenario. That’s not because herO fears him, but because CJ desperately need a win this week, with as good a map score as possible. Any win here still leaves them at the mercy of MVP and KT’s map scores, should they both pick up wins in these last two games. Even with his win over Losira a few weeks back, Creator simply hasn’t impressed. herO himself said last week that he wanted Maru, as a win there would make the rest of the matches for the team that much easier. Still though, that’s not something he can change now, and a win here is vital. We’ve seen herO blunder at times this year (his adept suicide against Ryung, for example), and that’s not something he can afford now.

ByuL <Overgrowth> HyuN

The stream of returning players keeps on coming. It’s time for HyuN’s Jin Air debut, in his first offline match since his Code A loss to Dream in early January. It’s been a while since we’ve seen vintage HyuN, and he hasn’t even been performing online. His ZvZ winrate in 2016 is a poor 43%, and it only gets worse when you look at the players he’s managed to beat—Cham, chankim, and NXZ. As respectfully as possible, I’m going to say that’s hardly the most imposing trio of zergs in the world. The only bright side for HyuN is that all of those results came when he was teamless. He hasn’t played a single game since joining Jin Air, and it remains to be seen what effect the teamhouse has had on him.

Bunny <Lerilak Crest> Maru

5-0 in Round 1, 5-0 in Round 2. The only blemishes on Maru’s Proleague 2016 record so far are the two losses in the R1 Playoffs to Zest and soO. Still, 14-2 is hardly a record to scoff at. His TvT has looked incredible, and despite his lack of success in either starleague, Maru is definitely the lead contender for best terran in the world right now. Bunny has pulled off a couple of upsets in TvT already this year—Proleague wins over TY and Bomber—but a win over Maru in this form would be on another level.


RagnaroK <Frost> Cure

Finally, it’s time to see Cure in Proleague for the first time in nearly a month. It’s easy to see how he’s been left out—Maru, Rogue and Trap have been performing, while Jin Air have seemingly unshakeable trust in sOs—but it’s still weird to see an in-form GSL semifinalist left out of the lineup so often. Cure’s TvZ is undoubtedly his strong suit right now, and he looked dominant against Solar and soO in his GSL group—he has a strong claim to being the best TvZer in Korea right now. On the other hand, we’ve seen the two sides to RagnaroK—the cheesy zerg who roach / nydused INnoVation and ByuN out of SSL, or the macro zerg who beat up Dream in a 30 minute game on Frost. It’ll be interesting to see which RagnaroK turns up, but Cure should be able to deal with either.

Ace: <King Sejong Station>

With that record, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Maru coming out for Jin Air, while equally herO is the only member of CJ with a realistic shot of being sent out. Maru to win.

Predictions

herO > Creator
ByuL > HyuN
Bunny < Maru
RagnaroK < Cure
herO < Maru

CJ 2 - 3 Jin Air