Onwards and Upwards

Week 2 gave us two tight battles that went all the way to the ace match, as well as two shocking sweeps. One title favourite remains unbeaten, while another has taken one hell of a beating, leaving four of our seven teams tied at 1-1. That’s going to have to change this week. KT have drawn the short straw of playing twice, taking on two of this season’s most hotly tipped teams in Jin Air and Afreeca; winless MVP are facing up to a potential battering from table-topping SKT; and CJ take on a Samsung squad on an upwards trajectory. Time for a look back at last week’s events, and a preview of this week’s matches to come.

Five Conclusions

1. Once again, SKT have brushed aside the competition to swagger their way to the top. It wasn’t quite as easy as they’d like though. MyuNgSiK blew an early lead against Stats, unable to keep up with his opponent’s multitasking ability after a nice storm-powered opening, while Zest once again delivered the goods for KT in a telecom showdown. On the one day that the KT staff decided to trust TY though he let them down hard, baneling busted by soO before Dark’s nydus finished the job. Whether SKT are genuinely in the same shape that delivered them the title last year, or merely profiting from other teams around them being a little suspect early on is unclear, but for now, they are the undoubted number one.
   
   
2. From one extreme to the other: MVP are the lone team without a single win so far, with an 0-3, a 1-3 and a 2-3 defeat so far. Despite that, they don’t quite seem Prime-esque to me. DeParture for instance has looked pretty great so far this year, Seed has proved capable of an upset or two, and Forte seems to be finally delivering on some of the promise he showed back in 2014, while the other core members of the team in Blaze, Ryung and GuMiho are all proven teamleague operators. The one thing they are missing at the moment is a proven ace calibre player (or players), something every other team in the league possesses, but there’s no reason to expect that they’ll consistently go 0-6 this year.
   
   
3. What do you know; CJ got the chance this week to field both herO and ByuL, and everything looked completely different to last week’s defeat to Afreeca. The two aces won comfortably against Seed and Blaze, while RagnaroK continued his early season form to take CJ’s first non-herO/ByuL Proleague win of the year. With such a tiny six man roster, CJ really need anyone to step up to solidify a spot in the A-team. RagnaroK’s win against fellow up-and-comer DeParture was a good start.
   
   
4. Whisper it quietly, but there’s a strong shout for aLive being the best terran we’ve seen so far in Legacy. He’s the only double threat terran left right now—still fighting on in both leagues—while he’s unbeaten in Proleague. This week, he gave us our first draw in Proleague since Soulkey and Reality’s swarm host-infused borefest two years ago, and this one was certainly more entertaining. You can certainly criticise Cure for not realising the one thing he needed to guarantee victory, but at the same time credit still has to be given to aLive for thinking his way back into a lost game. He’s now contributed to Afreeca wins over two much more fancied teams in CJ and Jin Air. After two years of KeSPA old boy dominance, there’s a very real possibility of Afreeca shaking things up.
   
   
5. Finally, a shoutout to the player leading the Proleague rankings. It’s not Zest or TY, it’s not herO or ByuL, it’s not anyone on Jin Air or SKT. It’s Dear—the player everyone thought was a bust all the way back in early 2014. In Zest, GuMiho and DeParture, he’s faced as tough a triplet of players as anyone so far this year, while also beating sOs in Code A. People doubted him all through last year, despite coming within a game of making the Season 3 GSL Finals, and this year he’s continuing to do everything he can to prove his doubters wrong.

Jin Air vs KT

Maru <Dusk Towers> Losira

Once again, we start things off between two players in uncertain form. Maru has appeared in just two matches in 2016 so far—a simple win over Blaze in Proleague, and his 0-3 defeat to Zest in Code A. Similarly, we’ve only seen Losira in a defeat to Journey in Proleague, and a 3-0 win over an outclassed Choya in Code A, alongside his offline losses in the Kung Fu Cup Qualifiers. It should be noted that Losira has a poor 24-27 record in ZvT throughout Legacy so far (including the only three sets he’s played this year), and simply this should come down to the fact that Maru should be regarded as the better player. If he’s able to bring the same finesse and Legacy-specific touches that he brought against Zest in Game 1 of their Code A match, he should easily be favoured here.


sOs <Orbital Shipyard> Zest

So, it’s finally time for sOs to make his debut in Proleague this year. He looked good enough at IEM Taipei, but Korea’s only been a land of misery for him so far this year, and it’s understandable if he wanted to kick things off with an easy game. Unfortunately, he’s landed Zest. The KT ace has been one of the standouts of the Korean scene so far this expansion, and will certainly be a tough opponent. Intriguingly, there’s one thing linking the two together—they’ve both lost to Dear recently (sOs in Code A, Zest in Proleague). Both players arguably brought more tactical nuance to the battle than the Samsung ace, but lost out to Dear’s superior engagements. Time to see if either player has learnt their lesson.


Trap <Ruins of Seras> TY

Last week was a landmark in TY’s career. For the first time ever, he was trusted by KT to play in the ace match and… he failed his test completely. Cheesed out, first by soO and then by Dark, it wasn’t a great week for one of the leading terrans of Legacy so far. Luckily, he has a pretty manageable map to rebound on this week. Trap has a poor record in PvT this year in online competition, with losses to aLive, GuMiho and Ryung, and transitioning to offline competition against a much tougher calibre of terran might be asking too much. TY’s defensive TvP has set the standard so far, while his multitasking ability should tilt any late game scenario in his favour. It’s hard to see him dropping the ball again here.

Rogue <Ulrena> Stats

This week marks the first time that Jin Air have been able to field all three of their core players so far in Proleague 2016. The only question is: does Rogue deserve to keep that status? It’s undeniable that he certainly earnt that right in HotS, but his poor form so far in Legacy has clouded the matter. The issue is less that he’s currently out of both leagues (just like Maru and sOs, in fact), and more to do with the fact that he’s looked horribly unconvincing. His recent 0-4 in Code S and loss to Super in Proleague were far from impressive, and he’ll certainly need a far better performance to overcome a resurgent Stats. Once again the KT protoss looks to have struck gold early in the year, and his controlled performance against MyuNgSiK was one of the more impressive feats that we saw last week. Hopefully this year he can keep the streak going for more than a few months.

Ace: <Prion Terraces>

After last week’s failure in opting for TY, it seems senseless to expect anyone other than Zest as ace for KT, especially when he’s emphatically beaten Maru so recently. With Rogue seemingly out of touch, it’s highly likely that either Maru or sOs will play here. With that defeat in Code A in mind, I’d expect sOs to get the nod should he play well in their first match of the night.

Predictions

Maru > Losira
sOs < Zest
Trap < TY
Rogue < Stats

Jin Air 1 - 3 KT

MVP vs SKT

GuMiho <Orbital Shipyard> Classic

Despite playing a mere 27 official games in Legacy so far, Classic has still looked like he’s maintained his position as one of the strongest players in the scene. He looked imperious against jjakji and aLive in Code A and the SSL respectively, while aside from his series against Dark, he’s looked competent enough in PvZ as well. We’re still waiting to see him in PvP, but tonight, he’s looking to defend his perfect record against terrans. Whether GuMiho will test him sufficiently is another issue. He might be 18-10 in TvP so far this month, but those online wins come against a whole host of inferior protosses. Patience is the best player he’s managed to beat, while he’s lost by a combined 0-3 to Dear and Zest—the only two top tier players he’s faced. His capacity for designing something awkwardly brilliant should never be questioned, but Classic should be the clear favourite here.


DeParture <Dusk Towers>INnoVation

DeParture has undoubtedly been one of MVP’s success stories so far this year, but despite his notable success against protoss in particular, his ZvT remains untested. He might be 11-2 in the matchup so far, but most of the wins came against lesser opposition. His only loss came against the best terran he’s faced so far—INnoVation himself in the GSL qualifiers. However, the SKT ace’s form in the matchup is also in question. He looked incredibly weak when confronted with the roach-powered aggressive builds that soO and RagnaroK brought in the SSL, and his win against Leenock last week came against a more passive mutalisk opening. DeParture’s been known in the past to craft builds to pick apart predictable players (see his win against herO in Proleague last year), and if he comes to this match with a similar gameplan he could well upset INnoVation.

horror <Prion Terraces> soO

Time for MVP’s traditional left-field pick. We haven’t seen horror at all this year offline, failing in every qualifier he’s entered, and this is his second match in Proleague ever after his defeat to YoDa last year. Unfortunately, he has a pretty pitiful record so far in Legacy—a 27-52 record giving a win rate of 34% against Korean opposition, including a dismal sub-30% win rate in ZvZ. He’s up against soO, a master of ZvZ in HotS. This probably won’t be pretty.


Seed <Lerilak Crest> Dark

Aside from his gimmicky adept win over Bomber in Code A, and beating an extremely poor Leenock in Code S, Seed hasn’t looked convincing at all so far in Legacy. He’s shown that he’s retained his old strength in coming up with new builds, but his execution often seems off (see his matches against Dream and herO, for example). He’s up against Dark, who’s looked brilliant so far in ZvP, and it’s difficult to see him pulling off a win.

Ace: <Ruins of Seras>

As always, it’s difficult to guess who the ace for SKT will be. Dark’s probably still got the job after his win last week, but frankly pretty much anyone would be a serviceable choice here. For MVP, DeParture’s still the likely pick as MVP’s leading player in recent times.

Predictions

GuMiho < Classic
DeParture > INnoVation
horror < soO
Seed < Dark

MVP 1 - 3 SKT

CJ vs Samsung

ByuL <Dusk Towers> Solar

Time for a rematch to kick off Tuesday’s games. Last time ByuL and Solar met, Solar crushed the CJ zerg 3-0 in the SSL. The games weren’t even close, as Solar used his experience in Legacy to outplay ByuL in every department. That was a starleague match though, and this is Proleague. Whether it’s the added pressure that Best of One brings, or an inability to focus fully on team matches given his individual commitments, for some strange reason there’s always been a disconnect between Solar’s performances in the two formats. Just like last week, there’s little reason to believe in a Solar loss other than fervent belief in his teamleague curse—let’s see if he can start to reverse the scars of last year’s campaign.


RagnaroK <Orbital Shipyard> Dear

Despite his position in the top six of SSL this season, I don’t think that RagnaroK has been fully convincing as a top class player. That position was earnt with two victories over INnoVation and ByuN, bringing the full gamut of zerg cheese to the table (plus, it has to be mentioned, running a strong gauntlet in the SSL qualifiers of Leenock, Dream and Life). While it’s clear then that his ZvT aggression is solid, his ability in the other two matchups is still mostly unknown. This is the week then that we’ll learn a bit more—he’s facing Solar in the SSL Winners’ Bracket, and Dear here in Proleague. Dear himself has proven his PvP capabilities, but we’ve had minimal glimpses of his other two matchups (wins over GuMiho and DeParture in Proleague). The win over DeParture last week might not have been too impressive—easily fending off an overlord drop to earn an easy win—but at least sets him up well against a known aggressive and cheesy opponent tonight. Should Dear hold off whatever RagnaroK attempts in the early game, expect him to win.


herO <Ruins of Seras> Reality

After his loss against Dream in GSL last week, it’ll be interesting to see if herO brings any changes to tonight’s game against Reality. He’s always been a player who uses his exceptional control to win out in situations where he overcommits to aggression, but that same confidence got him into trouble against Dream’s defensive capabilities. Reality though is a different class of terran, and one that perhaps doesn’t have the same capabilities to punish any such mistakes. He’s played a lot of Legacy so far (over 300 games), but despite looking good online he’s lost his last two matches offline. Losing to Stats is understandable; losing to SpeeD in Code A much less so. He was somewhat successful in Proleague for Samsung last year (6-5), but until he actually plays well offline this year it’s difficult to have too much faith in him.


Hush <Ulrena> BrAvO

To close things off, we’ve got a battle between two B teamers. Hush was traditionally known as a PvP sniper in HotS, while BrAvO’s TvT was especially strong in last year’s mech meta. In this new expansion though, both are struggling. Neither has qualified for either GSL or SSL (Hush losing to DRG and BrAvO to Forte in Code A), and neither has won in their sole Proleague match each this year. I guess the fact that Samsung sent BrAvO to snipe Zest means that he must be somewhat capable in TvP though.


Ace: <Prion Terraces>

If Samsung get the two wins they need to push this to the ace match, things get very tricky for CJ. ByuL’s just come off an 0-3 defeat to Solar (and potentially another loss earlier that night), while it’s going to take a brave coach to test Solar’s unbeaten 40-0 match winning streak in ZvP. Bbyong is therefore an option, but he’s said himself that he’s struggling to adapt to Legacy so far. In situations like this though, it’s probably best to simply choose your best player and pray—expect ByuL to come out should he win his first match of the night, and herO if he doesn’t.

Predictions

ByuL < Solar
RagnaroK < Dear
herO > Reality
Hush < BrAvO

CJ 1 - 3 Samsung

Afreeca vs KT

Super <Prion Terraces> TY

After his dual losses in Week 1 to ByuL and Dark, Super bounced back well last week to take out Rogue and help Afreeca on to their 3-0 win. All that recent practice in PvZ isn’t going to help him this week though, as he gets ready to take on TY. His online PvT form is very much mixed—wins over Bomber and KeeN, losses to aLive and Reality—and TY looks to be a superior terran in Legacy to any of those players. Granted, we haven’t seen him play much at all in the matchup recently—a single win over Patience in Code A so far this year—but added to the quality he’s shown in TvZ and TvT, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.


Curious <Ulrena> jjakji

Curious still hasn’t played very many meaningful matches of Legacy, but his derailment of the ByuN hypetrain in Code A was one of the most impressive displays we’ve seen yet. Beating a player who’s played approximately ten times as many official games of LotV as you in a best of five probably indicates some comfort with the new world order. Similarly, while we haven’t seen much of jjakji either, he was far more impressive in his Code A match against Classic than the 0-3 scoreline would suggest, especially in set 1. His online TvZ form has been pretty average though, losing to Solar recently while beating Symbol and TRUE. However, in the absence of any offline televised matches from jjakji, I think I’ll stick with Curious for now.


aLive <Dusk Towers>Zest

While aLive’s start to the season has been great so far, this is probably where his momentum comes to a screeching halt. Zest has looked different class in Legacy, especially in PvT. In fact, Zest is 17-2 in sets so far this month, with his loss to Dear in Week 1 of Proleague his only match loss. This includes a whopping 14-1 record in PvT, with his sole dropped set coming against Journey in Code S. Frankly, when you bring that sort of record to the table, it’s pretty hard to find any reason not to expect a Zest win, however well aLive has been playing.

KeeN <Lerilak Crest> Stats

Excepting his traditional GSL failure, Stats has started off pretty well so far this year. He hasn’t played a PvZ since that loss to DeParture, but his PvP certainly seems on point, racking up wins over Hurricane, Patience and MyuNgSiK in SSL and Proleague. His PvT however is much more uncertain, with a sole Proleague win over Reality his only match of the year so far—and that a game where Reality performed pretty poorly. Nevertheless, KeeN shouldn’t cause him too many problems. KeeN himself has barely played any TvP since the adept nerf, with a win over a poor Hush and an online loss to Super his only matches so far, and I’ll happily trust in Stats here.

Ace: <Ruins of Seras>

Again, it’s difficult to see anyone coming out here for KT other than Zest after last week’s telecom calamity. Afreeca have yet to play an ace match, but it seems like Super and aLive are their most trusted players so far. With Zest’s dominance in PvT, Super seems the smarter pick.

Predictions

Super < TY
Curious > jjakji
aLive < Zest
KeeN < Stats

Afreeca 1 - 3 KT