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Poland3765 Posts
On January 25 2016 18:59 PickyProtoss wrote:
Your conclusion is very biased and lacks context - The total number of players that have won 2 Premier Tournaments or higher is 38. That means 8.5% of the competitive pro player pool have won 82% of total Premier Tournaments - you would need to compare this finding to other sports, otherwise how do we know whether this represents a lot of champion or not a lot of champions? Take darts, pool, football, tennis, other esports, etc. and use them as a reference group.
Premier tournaments have rather undemanding definition. While they are top tier it's hard to compare HSC4 and contemporary GSL Code S.
Actually I think this text is too forgiving. The fastest BW starleagues were ~2months. On the other hand stuff like GSL WC was just under two weeks, Blizzard Cups and Hot6ix Cups are ~1 week, so was GSL Global Championship. KeSPA Cup was what - half a week? It's not OK to compare these.
Even GSL Code S early on was like just 1 month long. Personally to compare dominance to MSL + OSL results I would kick out anything under 20 days long or s.t. like that. True - the result would be s.t. like:
3 - (T)Mvp, (Z)NesTea
2 - (Z)Life, (P)Rain, (P)MC, (T)Maru, (P)Classic, (T)INnoVation
1 - (P)Zest, (T)MMA, (Z)FruitDealer, (T)Polt, (T)jjakji, (Z)DongRaeGu, (P)Seed, (Z)Sniper, (Z)RorO, (Z)Soulkey, (P)Dear, (P)herO
out: soO, sOs,
champions: 20 (-2)
onetime champions: 12 (+1)
championships: 30 (-9)
average titles per champion: 1.5 (-0.27)
% of championships by onetime champions: 60% (+10pp)
this way we can see that % of 1time champions is a bit closer to what happened in BW but the non1timechampions were unable to climb the dominance that BW counterparts achieved.
On the other hand if you take them into account, you should probably include some special events from BW era: Gom's starleagues, WCG Korea, 2007 Seoul e-Sports Festival and possibly more.
These were not domination defining and I think similar tournaments should be kicked out of discussion on SC2 side or it completely misses the point.
Anyway that's my 2 cents to discussion - I didn't check the exact numbers - just kicked weekly korean cups that - I think - don't compare well with standard BW leagues, regardless of amount of $$ in them.
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I think now we just need 1 more year or so and sc2, with the last expansion out, will be just as consistent as BW. Maybe even more since we get so few new players, but I hope not :/.
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The Korean discussion is interesting and it basically shows that the competitions in SC2 an in BW are pretty similar accounting to the much longer period of BW, over which it was the same game with the same scene in contrast with two expansions and one KeSPA invasion that happened over the life of SC2.
The "premier" statistics on the other hand is typical stuchiu nonsense. The "consistency" of results DH/IEM-style LANs is determined by the consistency of then being attended often by the very same and small group of relevant players.
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On January 25 2016 20:31 nimdil wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 18:59 PickyProtoss wrote:
Your conclusion is very biased and lacks context - The total number of players that have won 2 Premier Tournaments or higher is 38. That means 8.5% of the competitive pro player pool have won 82% of total Premier Tournaments - you would need to compare this finding to other sports, otherwise how do we know whether this represents a lot of champion or not a lot of champions? Take darts, pool, football, tennis, other esports, etc. and use them as a reference group. Premier tournaments have rather undemanding definition. While they are top tier it's hard to compare HSC4 and contemporary GSL Code S. Actually I think this text is too forgiving. The fastest BW starleagues were ~2months. On the other hand stuff like GSL WC was just under two weeks, Blizzard Cups and Hot6ix Cups are ~1 week, so was GSL Global Championship. KeSPA Cup was what - half a week? It's not OK to compare these. Even GSL Code S early on was like just 1 month long. Personally to compare dominance to MSL + OSL results I would kick out anything under 20 days long or s.t. like that. True - the result would be s.t. like: 3 - (T)Mvp, (Z)NesTea 2 - (Z)Life, (P)Rain, (P)MC, (T)Maru, (P)Classic, (T)INnoVation 1 - (P)Zest, (T)MMA, (Z)FruitDealer, (T)Polt, (T)jjakji, (Z)DongRaeGu, (P)Seed, (Z)Sniper, (Z)RorO, (Z)Soulkey, (P)Dear, (P)herO out: soO, sOs, champions: 20 (-2) onetime champions: 12 (+1) championships: 30 (-9) average titles per champion: 1.5 (-0.27) % of championships by onetime champions: 60% (+10pp) this way we can see that % of 1time champions is a bit closer to what happened in BW but the non1timechampions were unable to climb the dominance that BW counterparts achieved. On the other hand if you take them into account, you should probably include some special events from BW era: Gom's starleagues, WCG Korea, 2007 Seoul e-Sports Festival and possibly more. These were not domination defining and I think similar tournaments should be kicked out of discussion on SC2 side or it completely misses the point. Anyway that's my 2 cents to discussion - I didn't check the exact numbers - just kicked weekly korean cups that - I think - don't compare well with standard BW leagues, regardless of amount of $$ in them.
I agree. This is somewhat along the lines of the 'time' factor I mentioned earlier.
Weekend tourneys should be disregarded completely for the purpose of comparison with Starleagues - which means ignoring KeSPA Cup, WCS Global, Blizzcon, etc. (I am not saying that weekend tourneys are lesser tourneys, but just different from preparation-based tourneys).
And zooming on what constitutes as 'Starleagues', there should be some standard on the timing: (a) how spaced out the rounds are within individual tourneys; (b) how frequently they are being hosted in a time period i.e. a year. (I am not saying that Starleagues should be the best basis to measure consistency of top players, but if it is being chosen as the focus of comparison between BW and SC2 which is what the OP has done, then a proper standard ought to be used)
Perhaps Proleague stats could also be a factor to consider to measure dominance and consistency?
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On January 25 2016 15:33 lichter wrote:
having one winner all the time is fucking boring
Opinions.
But keep peddling this meme that everyone cares about underdogs. No, no we don't. Stop speaking for everyone.
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Poland3765 Posts
On January 25 2016 21:37 207aicila wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 15:33 lichter wrote:
having one winner all the time is fucking boring Opinions. But keep peddling this meme that everyone cares about underdogs. No, no we don't. Stop speaking for everyone.
Underdogs make things interesting but we love champions more (on average).
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"However, it is difficult to argue that they weren't deserving of their titles."
I would give jjakji credit for his win because that was probably one of the best GSL finals in WOL but Sniper??
No way in hell.
Ryung spoke my mind with regards to Sniper's win.
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On January 25 2016 21:48 Kaizor wrote:
"However, it is difficult to argue that they weren't deserving of their titles."
I would give jjakji credit for his win because that was probably one of the best GSL finals in WOL but Sniper??
No way in hell.
Ryung spoke my mind with regards to Sniper's win.
How many of Sniper's games did you watch?
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Canada8159 Posts
Imagining stu with 25 tabs of Korean league ro8s open typing this up
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On January 25 2016 20:23 Phredxor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 18:59 PickyProtoss wrote:
Your conclusion is very biased and lacks context - The total number of players that have won 2 Premier Tournaments or higher is 38. That means 8.5% of the competitive pro player pool have won 82% of total Premier Tournaments - you would need to compare this finding to other sports, otherwise how do we know whether this represents a lot of champion or not a lot of champions? Take darts, pool, football, tennis, other esports, etc. and use them as a reference group. Comparing completely different sports to sc2 wouldnt make anything any clearer. Don't see how that would help.
Comparing how humans perform across an array of sports and determining consistently levels would not help? You are focusing on the game, whereas I would argue that it is humans playing the game and consistency within games is a psychological phenomenon!
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On January 25 2016 21:45 nimdil wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 21:37 207aicila wrote:On January 25 2016 15:33 lichter wrote:
having one winner all the time is fucking boring Opinions. But keep peddling this meme that everyone cares about underdogs. No, no we don't. Stop speaking for everyone. Underdogs make things interesting but we love champions more (on average).
I think the sweet-spot is someone winning a lot, but not everything. We do like underdogs, but you need a favourite to have an underdog.
So the level of domination that we have in BW and sc2, where a really strong played can have a 70% winrate (by map) against the rest of players, is about right I think. That'll give an 90% probability or so to win a BO3, and maybe something around 50% to take home a major title. I think that's about good. They'll win enough tournaments (#tourneys per year/2) to get a "bonjwa" status, but will still not win tournaments regularly (half), and whoever kicks them out will be an upset (10% series). So I think that makes for a great narrative.
Much lower winrate, and things become too random: new people will win every tournament, no bonjwa. Much higher winrate and there'll be no upsets (looking at you Jokovic!) which is boring.
At the start of an expansions, the winrates are obstreperous, but as things settle down in a year or a half or so, I think we can have people go around 70% winrate over longer times, making good narrative for the TL writers.  Well, assuming the gaem isn't ded by then ofc. 
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On January 25 2016 21:56 PickyProtoss wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 20:23 Phredxor wrote:On January 25 2016 18:59 PickyProtoss wrote:
Your conclusion is very biased and lacks context - The total number of players that have won 2 Premier Tournaments or higher is 38. That means 8.5% of the competitive pro player pool have won 82% of total Premier Tournaments - you would need to compare this finding to other sports, otherwise how do we know whether this represents a lot of champion or not a lot of champions? Take darts, pool, football, tennis, other esports, etc. and use them as a reference group. Comparing completely different sports to sc2 wouldnt make anything any clearer. Don't see how that would help. Comparing how humans perform across an array of sports and determining consistently levels would not help? You are focusing on the game, whereas I would argue that it is humans playing the game and consistency within games is a psychological phenomenon!
You would first have to prove that consistency in SC2 and consistency in other, "real" sports work in similar fashion. For example, the consistency of SC2 players can be derailed by injuries. Sports teams in general are not dependant on 1 person to achieve consistent results. Or as another example, PartinG made 10 consecutive Ro16s in Code S. For SC2, that's impressively consistent, and he got an award for it. Heck, you get an award for 10 consecutive appearances in Code S. In other sports, consistently qualifying is not something you get awarded for. So then, is consistency in Starcraft 2 really the same as consistency in football (soccer)? I wouldn't say it is, and it's certainly too deep for an article like this.
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On January 25 2016 22:21 Elentos wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 21:56 PickyProtoss wrote:On January 25 2016 20:23 Phredxor wrote:On January 25 2016 18:59 PickyProtoss wrote:
Your conclusion is very biased and lacks context - The total number of players that have won 2 Premier Tournaments or higher is 38. That means 8.5% of the competitive pro player pool have won 82% of total Premier Tournaments - you would need to compare this finding to other sports, otherwise how do we know whether this represents a lot of champion or not a lot of champions? Take darts, pool, football, tennis, other esports, etc. and use them as a reference group. Comparing completely different sports to sc2 wouldnt make anything any clearer. Don't see how that would help. Comparing how humans perform across an array of sports and determining consistently levels would not help? You are focusing on the game, whereas I would argue that it is humans playing the game and consistency within games is a psychological phenomenon! You would first have to prove that consistency in SC2 and consistency in other, "real" sports work in similar fashion. For example, the consistency of SC2 players can be derailed by injuries. Sports teams in general are not dependant on 1 person to achieve consistent results. Or as another example, PartinG made 10 consecutive Ro16s in Code S. For SC2, that's impressively consistent, and he got an award for it. Heck, you get an award for 10 consecutive appearances in Code S. In other sports, consistently qualifying is not something you get awarded for. So then, is consistency in Starcraft 2 really the same as consistency in football (soccer)? I wouldn't say it is, and it's certainly too deep for an article like this.
We could break down consistency rates into three levels: top, middle, bottom.
Top: Finals
Middle: RO16-RO4 for SC2, RO8-RO4 for BW
Bottom: RO32-RO16 for SC2, RO16-RO8 for BW
The rates could be very well be significantly different at different levels.
Then the next question would be which level of competition matters more in comparing consistency as a whole? Should we have a weighted ratio (e.g. Top:Mid:Bottom = 50:30:20)? Or should we only factor in top, or top and middle?
This is moving towards the deep dive analysis stuchiu hinted about. Good luck with juggling 25+ sheets! 
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effort is a 2 time champ as of 2 days ago.
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Canada8990 Posts
Why stuchiu 1000, it can't be your 1000th article right?
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I enjoyed reading the article, and I think there's a similar kind of consistency in both Europe and NA. It seems like there's always been a group of players that stand above the rest on the long term, but ofc the Europe and NA players don't really win anything on the global scale except for the chosen few, but residency required events seem to have a lot of the same faces over the years.
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Fiddler's Green42661 Posts
On January 25 2016 23:42 Nakajin wrote:
Why stuchiu 1000, it can't be your 1000th article right?
1000 words
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Canada8990 Posts
On January 26 2016 00:11 stuchiu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2016 23:42 Nakajin wrote:
Why stuchiu 1000, it can't be your 1000th article right? 1000 words
Oh ok thanks, that's a nice exercise of style.
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Why am I feeling like "wait, wait, SC2 is actually not a bad game" after reading this article?
It's all true on paper but at the end of the day it is all about the viewers.
And, as a viewer, I struggle to get my head around why SC2 turned from a promising new game into a boring game. Look at the numbers for "Live streams" now.
There is little drama in SC2, in my humble opinion.
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one of my most favorite articles! Thank you stuchiu! I love your work.
I knew Taeja was good, but I never realized how he stacked up. The urge to purchase a TL jacket is stronger...........
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EPT
