On April 21 2015 10:02 ZenithM wrote: And if people can really make a living out of betting on SC2 matches, like StarGalaxy implies, while proplayers of this game barely do, it's no wonder that machfixing is rampant.
Uuh poor players, they only make hundreds of thousands of dollars. http://www.esportsearnings.com/games/151-starcraft-ii Should we collect donations for them? I bet MC doesn't even have enough money to feed himself. /irony off You are clearly mixing up poeple who earn money by doing analysis and people who earn money by fixing games. Do you see the difference? I really hope you do.
[...]
I don't see where this comment from me was an attack on you, but I won't hide that in general I don't really have much respect for sport betters. It's fine when contestants are already superstars who make way more that you can betting on them, but if players are earning less than betters, they're just easy prey. All the more so as nobody does anything about matchfixing anyway, so you don't really pay the price for forsaking your progamer honor.
Lichter raises a good point about the wording of this statement. It goes much further than it needs to concerning their final opinion, and they make it pretty clear they are certain about MarineKing's innocence. I would guess that their investigation would have to be pretty thorough/convincing for them to say it like this, otherwise they could make a really generic PR statement like lots of other organizations do.
On April 21 2015 07:34 Circumstance wrote: It's not innocent until proven guilty. It's not even guilty until proven innocent. It's guilty until forgotten about with you all. What kind of sick mentality is that? MVP wouldn't have kept him on if he was a liability to the team. You got your statement, it was clear and thorough, put the damned torches AWAY.
This. I'm so sick of the ridiculous twisted mentalities that a lot of people in the "community" here on TL and elsewhere seem to have.
What "mentality?" That they accept this match was a complete joke to watch and they just want to move on? I don't see anything wrong with that.
On April 21 2015 10:13 lichter wrote: Well at least it is something.
Regardless of how true the statement might be, one point that people are missing is the significance of MVP making a statement with a definite conclusion. MVP is an organization with teams in different esports. SC2 is just one of their teams, and likely their smallest and least profitable. By defending MarineKing and claiming that their investigation yielded no results, they are putting the organization's reputation on the line. Not just in SC2 but across different esports. If they did have any reason to doubt MarineKing or any other player, it makes more sense for them to either use that player as a scapegoat or avoid making definitive statements defending or condemning him. Now they've thrown the entire organization on the side of "he did not matchfix" and it has larger implications than just Starcraft.
One the one hand, the game is still fishy. It is a commonly accepted fact that illegal betting and matchfixing is common in Korea. On the other hand, I find this a curious statement to make. It makes more sense for them to give a vaguer conclusion that does not put them for or against MarineKing. This statement could have grave implications in the future that could harm them financially.
This is no reason to believe that MarineKing did not do it. This is also not a reason to believe that MVP's investigation was bogus. The statement does not really prove anything, but it does mean that MVP has put its reputation as an organization across multiple games on the line. I'd like to believe that they are not dumb enough to do this without understanding all the consequences of their actions, whatever the truth may be.
I had to chuckle because I just read:
On April 21 2015 09:55 GTR wrote:
"I should trust him, and I have decided to trust him. It's not an empty saying, he truly is a great player. He is actually good, so he will keep showing good results."
"Even if Savior loses I will keep sending him out to games. He is to icon of CJ and I trust him. He has always been good and he is still good so I trust him."
Cho Kyu-nam, CJ Entus coach, 2010.
To me it seems more like MVP is siding with MKP here because it's their player and that's what they need to do. If it later turns out that MKP was indeed matchfixing I doubt the consequences would be as severe as you describe. They would just publish a PR-response. It's not that that result would undermine their "investigation". Even if MKP was matchfixing they can hardly held accountable for not succesfully proving it with their investigation. It's not like the team MVP is voching for him. They say the investigations results are,... we believe in him,... nothing more.
There is a big difference between "I have decided to trust him" and "But at the very end, all evidence gave us the same answer – Lee was not matchfixing." One does not absolve him of blame while the other does. This isn't the same as a manager siding with a player after a bout of poor behavior or a team supporting a player after a misdemeanor. This is a team telling the world that their player is definitely innocent (of doing something illegal, not just some in-game foul or mistake) and that they're investigation yielded no proof otherwise.
This time the coach says he made an investigation. I mean sure, I agree that it is worded more strongly.
Both times a manager/coach sides with his player. I have no idea what his investigations included or if they even happened. I have to take his word for it similar to the 2010 case. That the coach says he made an investigation doesn't make a difference to me here. I have no proof or even a statement of what he has done exactly.
On April 21 2015 08:01 TotalBiscuit wrote: So I'd like to ask the thread exactly what they expected out of TL. The burden of proof is on the accuser. It is not up to MVP to do the impossible, that being to prove a negative. It is up to everyone else to prove Marineking was involved in matchfixing. Thus far all they have to go on is Pinnacle suspending betting on that match, which is not an awful lot to go on. Suspicious betting activity does not in fact mean that there was any wrongdoing.
I'm honestly a little surprised at some peoples willingness to just say "yup, he obviously did it and this statement doesnt convince me otherwise". Tell me, exactly what would convince you? How exactly could they convince you? They can't, they have no means to, you can't prove conclusively a negative.
Thank you for being the voice of reason TotalBiscuit, I'm relieved to hear this from you.
On April 21 2015 10:07 fruity. wrote: Here's the VOD of the game in question.
A theme in this thread seems to be 'they cancelled the bets therefore there is match fixing going on'. Sorry, but that in itself does not prove anything. It may be suspicious, but can't be used as any sort of proof on its own.
So where might any potential proof lie?
This is the point in the VOD where the weird shit happens. https://youtu.be/J-XbHBQAco8?t=267 Byul proxies a hatch, and soon after drops the first spine crawler, it's this spine crawler which is clearly seen on MK's minimap, the observer switches to first person view a couple of times, and you can clearly see it. A big blob within spitting distance of MK's main.
Now sometime in the past the our beloved Day9 did a daily on rotation. Basically: Check SCV production, check army production, check minimap. Rinse and repeat. Good advice. From the moment MK should see the spine crawler to when he actually reacts to it is 1minute 15 seconds in real time.
So am I to believe that a progamer who had his first offline tournament 5 years ago, whos whole life has been dedicated to SC is not going to check his minimap for that duration? Bullshit. Total bullshit. Most of the players here would've spotted that spine crawler faster than MK. Further if you watch MK there's a couple of times at least you can see him glancing down to the bottom left. The only reason to do this in SC is to check the minimap, they know where the keys are from muscle memory, there's no need to check hot groups...
Add in his body language, it's just wrong. Wolf comments on this.
Someone earlier said that it could've been an overlord. Sure that sounds good. But why didn't he go check? Why would he allow potential viewing of his base? Isn't the normal thing for anyone going up against zerg to think 'ooooh overlord - let me go kill it to maybe get a supply block'. Especially at the start (4-5ish mins in game time).
Now add in the fact that online betting sites tracked line movements which were odd and made them cancel the bets.
Is the above enough to convict MK? Each point I raise in isolation is not. But when you add them all together? For me at the very very least it's left me thinking that there will be a cloud over MK. Is that fair or reasonable on my part, perhaps not, but in the absence of real proof like a recorded phone conversation, and considering the points I raised above, is fucking well suspicious.
As for MVP's statement. I thank them for at least making a statement. Though I'm not exactly sure of what else they could say in the absence of definitive proof. But for me I just can't see how a progamer would not react to that in a million years. It must be unprecedented at this level of play, we're not talking about a medivac clipping a player's vision here. Were talking about static defence, outside MK's base clearly seen for over a minute.
so explain to me how a Korean pro good enough to beat a lot of well known other Korean pro's forgets that one needs a forge to cannon rush. explain how one forgets to research stim or combat shields than explain to me how that's so much more likely of a mistake to make than thinking a dot you don't have vision of is an overlord. or perhaps not noticing the dot at all.
Thinking you'd built a forge is a very rare lapse but the player would realise pretty quickly. Building the same building twice can happen too. Missing an upgrade is also believable if you thought you'd hit it as it's not checked that often. Mistakes happen but missing a dot on the minimap early game for over a minute, something progamers are constantly checking (a reaction time of more than a few seconds would be extremely slow), is completely unbelievable.
seem like comparable mistakes to me particular since while the upgrades might not be specifically looked at much there is a animation showing that a particular building is researching something and people are trained to see it. also how the hell do you not see that a forge doesn't get built and than never look at that spot where there should be a building forge how the hell is that explainable? particularly when your plan requires it to work.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
On April 21 2015 07:34 Circumstance wrote: It's not innocent until proven guilty. It's not even guilty until proven innocent. It's guilty until forgotten about with you all. What kind of sick mentality is that? MVP wouldn't have kept him on if he was a liability to the team. You got your statement, it was clear and thorough, put the damned torches AWAY.
This. I'm so sick of the ridiculous twisted mentalities that a lot of people in the "community" here on TL and elsewhere seem to have.
What "mentality?" That they accept this match was a complete joke to watch and they just want to move on? I don't see anything wrong with that.
No, I can't be fucked to go back and find the people whose mentalities I was referring to, but that's totally fine if you think the game was crap and want to move on as you say. That's actually legit.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
You still follow starcraft?
I agree though. The real question is what the hell can we do about it?
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
Correct and even as a long time CJ fan it was disgusting to see all the high 5's at the end.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
perhaps people with out fanboy logic are just really good at seeing when a particular player is completely of their game and likely to lose their next matches?
On April 21 2015 10:39 The_Templar wrote: Lichter raises a good point about the wording of this statement. It goes much further than it needs to concerning their final opinion, and they make it pretty clear they are certain about MarineKing's innocence. I would guess that their investigation would have to be pretty thorough/convincing for them to say it like this, otherwise they could make a really generic PR statement like lots of other organizations do.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
You still follow starcraft?
I agree though. The real question is what the hell can we do about it?
I watch the Liquid guys in WCS mostly, don't really watch GSL anymore.
I don't think there's much to do about it, it's sad because it ruins the feeling around proleague. Hopefully Kespa cleans it up but from what Rek posted it sounds like they won't.
On April 21 2015 10:48 fruity. wrote: Forgot to add in my previous post that Mk scouted Byul's natural at 3.20 in game time. This alone should of set alarm bells ringing, should it not?
This whole issue is a fine example of apophenia I guess? Depending on your point of view.
Make of it what you will.
Haha, man stop rehashing the same things everybody has said for weeks :D. There's a whole thread where posters said all that and more. It may be locked, I don't know, but it's no use talking about the in-game facts anymore.
On April 21 2015 10:13 lichter wrote: Well at least it is something.
Regardless of how true the statement might be, one point that people are missing is the significance of MVP making a statement with a definite conclusion. MVP is an organization with teams in different esports. SC2 is just one of their teams, and likely their smallest and least profitable. By defending MarineKing and claiming that their investigation yielded no results, they are putting the organization's reputation on the line. Not just in SC2 but across different esports. If they did have any reason to doubt MarineKing or any other player, it makes more sense for them to either use that player as a scapegoat or avoid making definitive statements defending or condemning him. Now they've thrown the entire organization on the side of "he did not matchfix" and it has larger implications than just Starcraft.
One the one hand, the game is still fishy. It is a commonly accepted fact that illegal betting and matchfixing is common in Korea. On the other hand, I find this a curious statement to make. It makes more sense for them to give a vaguer conclusion that does not put them for or against MarineKing. This statement could have grave implications in the future that could harm them financially.
This is no reason to believe that MarineKing did not do it. This is also not a reason to believe that MVP's investigation was bogus. The statement does not really prove anything, but it does mean that MVP has put its reputation as an organization across multiple games on the line. I'd like to believe that they are not dumb enough to do this without understanding all the consequences of their actions, whatever the truth may be.
I had to chuckle because I just read:
On April 21 2015 09:55 GTR wrote:
"I should trust him, and I have decided to trust him. It's not an empty saying, he truly is a great player. He is actually good, so he will keep showing good results."
"Even if Savior loses I will keep sending him out to games. He is to icon of CJ and I trust him. He has always been good and he is still good so I trust him."
Cho Kyu-nam, CJ Entus coach, 2010.
To me it seems more like MVP is siding with MKP here because it's their player and that's what they need to do. If it later turns out that MKP was indeed matchfixing I doubt the consequences would be as severe as you describe. They would just publish a PR-response. It's not that that result would undermine their "investigation". Even if MKP was matchfixing they can hardly held accountable for not succesfully proving it with their investigation. It's not like the team MVP is voching for him. They say the investigations results are,... we believe in him,... nothing more.
There is a big difference between "I have decided to trust him" and "But at the very end, all evidence gave us the same answer – Lee was not matchfixing." One does not absolve him of blame while the other does. This isn't the same as a manager siding with a player after a bout of poor behavior or a team supporting a player after a misdemeanor. This is a team telling the world that their player is definitely innocent (of doing something illegal, not just some in-game foul or mistake) and that they're investigation yielded no proof otherwise.
This time the coach says he made an investigation. I mean sure, I agree that it is worded more strongly.
Both times a manager/coach sides with his player. I have no idea what his investigations included or if they even happened. I have to take his word for it similar to the 2010 case. That the coach says he made an investigation doesn't make a difference to me here. I have no proof or even a statement of what he has done exactly.
In MVP's statement they put themselves up to scrutiny. If it is revealed that MarineKing did throw then their reputation is tarnished due to the fact that they either did not investigate properly, or found it and then decided to hide it. However it could be that MVP's investigation is 100% legitimate and MarineKing didn't throw and that's why they feel confident enough to make this statement.
On April 21 2015 10:44 Hot_Bid wrote: Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided.
I believe there was one or two (I think it was one) cases where the player that was supposed to lose won. I don't remember the specific game but I recall it being discussed.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
You still follow starcraft?
I agree though. The real question is what the hell can we do about it?
Just don't support pro league anymore. If you really feel that strongly about this? They lose western audience and they market it in korea. Then it's back to restreams again like in broodwar after gom stopped their tournaments for the people that are still interested.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
You still follow starcraft?
I agree though. The real question is what the hell can we do about it?
Just don't support pro league anymore. If you really feel that strongly about this? They lose western audience and they market it in korea. Then it's back to restreams again like in broodwar after gom stopped their tournaments.
You don't even have to look at the VOD and analyze his body language or whatever. You can just look at the betting lines and activity.
It's not normal that thousands of dollars are bet against MKP despite the odds being heavily against the bettors. Every single time that's happened, the person who was "supposed to lose" lost. It's like 6/6 or 7/7 now in every bet Pinnacle has voided. You're telling me that this is just a coincidence, that people will pump thousands of dollars with terrible odds and it just happens to always be in games where the person who they bet on wins in strange circumstances? And it just happened to be this match, where it looked like he threw?
Keep in mind its not normal for these amounts (tens of thousands of $ sometimes) to be placed on a single match. If this was just random, sometimes the bettors who bet these kinds of money against bad odds would lose, but they don't. They always win when they bet this much.
He threw. It's sad, but that's what happened.
You still follow starcraft?
I agree though. The real question is what the hell can we do about it?
Just don't support pro league anymore. If you really feel that strongly about this? They lose western audience and they market it in korea. Then it's back to restreams again like in broodwar after gom stopped their tournaments for the people that are still interested.
So let's let Sc2 die? Ya sounds like a great idea. You know there's no starcraft scene without the korean scene, right? You really think foreigners are gonna keep people interested? That ship sailed a long time ago.
EPT
