EPTOn April 21 2015 08:36 Hider wrote:
What people want is a large-scaled investigation from Kespa.
What people want is a large-scaled investigation from Kespa.
lol what a joke
MVP's Statement on MarineKing - Page 5
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Deathstar
9150 Posts
lol what a joke | ||
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royalroadweed
United States8301 Posts
On April 21 2015 07:36 Jarree wrote: Ok.. so why don't you share those circumstances. The statement would be at least a bit more believable if it had answers to questions like "why did you not use the reapers" "why did you go 3cc against no natural" "why did you stare you CC that was building scvs for 5 minutes". I mean, give some explanations not just "he didn't do it". edit: imo this "statement" is completely useless. I can answer this. Because he's MarineKing. The 3 CC isn't surprising from MK even if he didn't spot zerg natural. The cancel was what was suspisious imo. The cancel said he was surprised by it which means he missed it on his minimap which is uncharacteristic from a player with MK's mechanics. Mechanics were never his problems. | ||
Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:33 felisconcolori wrote: This part of the debacle I have some issue with - the actions of third parties that may have had no actual influence on the game being presented as evidence. The line movement was suspicious, I would agree. But was it because "Hey, the fix is IN!" (in which case, generally, the people seeking to profit from the fix would not bet in a manner guaranteed, by experience, to KNOW Pinnacle is aware of and fully capable of voiding all of their bets, making fixing the match a complete waste of time and money) or was it because "Hey, MKP looks like someone hit him in the parking lot with a 2x4, hurry up and bet against him" phone calls or was it because of irrational betting patterns by people that are betting, not logically and using statistics, but people that are betting on their favorite player without any regard and high hopes? + Show Spoiler + The gambling industry lives on high hopes. High hopes build the hotels and casinos in a desert. Professional gamblers are not the ones that are supporting the gambling industry, legal or illegal. No these guys don't need to place bets to make money off the situation. Knowing that the result is fixed and then on selling that information is one way they can profit without putting themselves on the front line. When the line movement is this great it suggests that the information was sold to too many people which fucks up the supposedly discrete fixing because it moves the line too greatly. EDIT: To address the rest of your post. Given that we know that there is bet manipulation going on, the line movement is definitely suspicious. Without prior knowledge that this kind of activity is taking place some of your other scenarios are a little more plausible. | ||
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sOvrn
United States678 Posts
On April 21 2015 07:11 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: And if we take a close view on MarineKing's match history, he hasn't won a few Proleague games recently, so it makes it even more unlikely that he did. Ya.... sure..... The lack of a serious investigation is very troublesome. Honestly, it degrades the whole institution and I'm more inclined to believe that match fixing is widespread. | ||
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Jarree
Finland1004 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:39 royalroadweed wrote: I can answer this. Because he's MarineKing. The 3 CC isn't surprising from MK even if he didn't spot zerg natural. The cancel was what was suspisious imo. The cancel said he was surprised by it which means he missed it on his minimap which is uncharacteristic from a player with MK's mechanics. Mechanics were never his problems. I'd like to hear his answers, not yours. I've never seen anyone build 2 reapers and sit in their own base against (proxy)hatch first, when there is 0 danger of speedlings. Let alone marineking? If he has the answers, I'll be glad to hear, did he missread the z opening? Didn't see there was no natural? Anything. It's like he has the answers, but he isn't telling because "burden of proof is on us". Makes zero sense. | ||
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Quixotic_tv
Germany130 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:34 coverpunch wrote: I would just point out that the presumption of innocence only applies with regards to the government in criminal cases, where someone's freedom is at stake. This is more the presumption of honesty, like how most governments allow people to self-report their income and expenses to determine their taxes or like science where we simply take researchers at their word that they collected the data honestly. MarineKing says he didn't do it. How much more can anyone expect out of him? The answer to all the apparent offers around here for armchair coaching is "no, thanks". I think this dents his credibility, but this only becomes a problem worthy of the kind of scrutiny others are asking for if he's involved in more suspicious games. He played another game and it was apparently clean, so whatevs. Well, fixing matches is a crime where I come from. This guy went to jail for it. I don't know how the honorable United States handle these cases, but I think they'll do it similarly. I repeat, as long as no one can prove it, there is no use in accusing someone. To me all of you are VERY suspicious. I think TL users are killing puppies and sell the bodies to mad scientists. I have no proof, but from what you all write, it is totally clear. I'm an expert, I saw a puppy once. Prove me the opposite, or I'll shitstorm over you all and destroy your reputation. | ||
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felisconcolori
United States6169 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:36 StarGalaxy wrote: Yes I did. I did everything that was in my power. I provided sreenshots of manipulated odds here on TL. I provided analysis on them since there are probably not a lot of people out there that know as much about that matter as I do. (E.G http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/476033-pinnacle-voids-dark-vs-san-bets-due-to-match-manipulation-concerns?page=52#1034 ) Thank you for ridiculing the people that contribute to raise awareness. Awareness is not what's needed. What's needed is awareness that betting, by and large, is a horrible thing to do even mathematically. It's addictive, to a level that makes the addiction in this story fairly tame. Gambling, as an industry, is built on the idea that a very few people will win, and a lot of people will lose. You're better off betting on the stock market, because while it does not have "resume from replay" it also is a hell of a lot better regulated. Anyway, I'm sorry that people don't appreciate that you take risks and lose money betting on something the majority of the world views as light entertainment at best. I'm sorry people don't realize the amount of effort you put into doing so in a rational manner, taking into account mathematical modeling. I'm not sorry that you don't see that betting is the root cause of the problem you are most concerned about dealing with. | ||
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Cascade
Australia5405 Posts
The one thing I find noteworthy is how they formulate things in terms of "we asked MKP, and he said he wasnt fixing", more than "we side with MKP and guarantee you that he was not fixing". I feel they are not really taking MKPs back, more reporting on an investigation, as if they don't want to be in too much trouble if it later turns out that the game was indeed fixed. But maybe I read too much into it, with the different culture, translation, confirmation bias, etc. I guess the police needs to get involved for actual hard proof, tracking down the money, chat-logs, witnesses, etc. But not sure why korean police would bother with something like this. | ||
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Wuster
1974 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:42 Plexa wrote: No these guys don't need to place bets to make money off the situation. Knowing that the result is fixed and then on selling that information is one way they can profit without putting themselves on the front line. When the line movement is this great it suggests that the information was sold to too many people which fucks up the supposedly discrete fixing because it moves the line too greatly. EDIT: To address the rest of your post. Given that we know that there is bet manipulation going on, the line movement is definitely suspicious. Without prior knowledge that this kind of activity is taking place some of your other scenarios are a little more plausible. To back up the edit, the fact that there's a lot of smoke is something people are either forgetting or glossing over. There have been multiple posts now by different users(who the admin's vouch as trustworthy individuals) now that say match-fixing is an open-secret among SC2 programers. So it's not as if we're being irrationally suspicious about MKP. | ||
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Quixotic_tv
Germany130 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:47 felisconcolori wrote: Awareness is not what's needed. What's needed is awareness that betting, by and large, is a horrible thing to do even mathematically. It's addictive, to a level that makes the addiction in this story fairly tame. Gambling, as an industry, is built on the idea that a very few people will win, and a lot of people will lose. You're better off betting on the stock market, because while it does not have "resume from replay" it also is a hell of a lot better regulated. Anyway, I'm sorry that people don't appreciate that you take risks and lose money betting on something the majority of the world views as light entertainment at best. I'm sorry people don't realize the amount of effort you put into doing so in a rational manner, taking into account mathematical modeling. I'm not sorry that you don't see that betting is the root cause of the problem you are most concerned about dealing with. That's a very good point; I didn't think of it. Thank you. There are people in my family who lost a ton of money due to gambling addiction. | ||
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felisconcolori
United States6169 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:47 Cascade wrote: I guess this is more or less what we would expect, fixed game or not. The one thing I find noteworthy is how they formulate things in terms of "we asked MKP, and he said he wasnt fixing", more than "we side with MKP and guarantee you that he was not fixing". I feel they are not really taking MKPs back, more reporting on an investigation, as if they don't want to be in too much trouble if it later turns out that the game was indeed fixed. But maybe I read too much into it, with the different culture, translation, confirmation bias, etc. I guess the police needs to get involved for actual hard proof, tracking down the money, chat-logs, witnesses, etc. But not sure why korean police would bother with something like this. "Article 246 of the Criminal Act punishes a person who gambles or bets for the purpose of gaining property by a fine of not more than five million won or a minor fine." Possibly that. If the people doing the betting are Korean. | ||
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baabaa101
12 Posts
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Cascade
Australia5405 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:51 felisconcolori wrote: "Article 246 of the Criminal Act punishes a person who gambles or bets for the purpose of gaining property by a fine of not more than five million won or a minor fine." Possibly that. If the people doing the betting are Korean. OK, yes, I didn't mean that it wasn't illegal. I just imagined that the Korean police would assign this as very low priority. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though. | ||
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Popkiller
3415 Posts
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Jarree
Finland1004 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:42 Plexa wrote: No these guys don't need to place bets to make money off the situation. Knowing that the result is fixed and then on selling that information is one way they can profit without putting themselves on the front line. When the line movement is this great it suggests that the information was sold to too many people which fucks up the supposedly discrete fixing because it moves the line too greatly. EDIT: To address the rest of your post. Given that we know that there is bet manipulation going on, the line movement is definitely suspicious. Without prior knowledge that this kind of activity is taking place some of your other scenarios are a little more plausible. This post is spot on. Line movements alone don't implicate MK, they just tell you that someone was sure he is going to lose. He/they might have been sold missinformation. But if you do the calculations on probabilities about all the voided bets so far and the outcomes of the matches, I believe the probability of no-matchfixing* in general is almost nonexistent. Then look at MK game with that knowledge + everything else said. *requires too much effort and time for me to do calculate them now, just my educated guess. | ||
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
like that's all i can actually say again, those lines + maybe the most fixed looking game i have ever seen in professional starcraft or starcraft 2. wow what a coincidence that the betting would suggest fixing. | ||
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felisconcolori
United States6169 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:57 Cascade wrote: OK, yes, I didn't mean that it wasn't illegal. I just imagined that the Korean police would assign this as very low priority. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though. To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if it is overall a low priority for Korean police outside of the specific units assigned to computer-related offenses or gambling, and they are probably more focused on larger sports audiences and operations that are related to larger criminal organizations. | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:47 felisconcolori wrote: Awareness is not what's needed. What's needed is awareness that betting, by and large, is a horrible thing to do even mathematically. It's addictive, to a level that makes the addiction in this story fairly tame. Gambling, as an industry, is built on the idea that a very few people will win, and a lot of people will lose. You're better off betting on the stock market, because while it does not have "resume from replay" it also is a hell of a lot better regulated. Anyway, I'm sorry that people don't appreciate that you take risks and lose money betting on something the majority of the world views as light entertainment at best. I'm sorry people don't realize the amount of effort you put into doing so in a rational manner, taking into account mathematical modeling. I'm not sorry that you don't see that betting is the root cause of the problem you are most concerned about dealing with. This extends beyond the individuals betting on the match. Betting is illegal in Korea and match fixing is even worse. The last time we saw extensive match fixing some serious shit went down, and arguably was the killing blow to BW (as sponsors largely pulled out). If the scene is as rotten as is suggested by people on the forum, then the future of SC2 in Korea is in serious jeopardy. BW match fixing references; http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/news-archive/125601-match-fixing-scandal-conclusion http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/brood-war/125673-match-fixing-scandal-some-vids-and-pics http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/news-archive/129321-progamer-ma-ive-never-suggested-match-fixing http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/brood-war/132467-match-fixing-trial-updates-24-06-2010 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/news-archive/129893-match-fixing-players-all-banned-by-kespa | ||
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ZenithM
France15952 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:47 felisconcolori wrote: Awareness is not what's needed. What's needed is awareness that betting, by and large, is a horrible thing to do even mathematically. It's addictive, to a level that makes the addiction in this story fairly tame. Gambling, as an industry, is built on the idea that a very few people will win, and a lot of people will lose. You're better off betting on the stock market, because while it does not have "resume from replay" it also is a hell of a lot better regulated. Anyway, I'm sorry that people don't appreciate that you take risks and lose money betting on something the majority of the world views as light entertainment at best. I'm sorry people don't realize the amount of effort you put into doing so in a rational manner, taking into account mathematical modeling. I'm not sorry that you don't see that betting is the root cause of the problem you are most concerned about dealing with. I would have added a few more "not" in your last paragraphs, but good post! I'm really NOT sorry that betters lose money over this. The scene shouldn't rely on fucking betting to survive, so it's kinda horrible that right now it may be dying because of it. | ||
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Psychonian
United States2322 Posts
On April 21 2015 08:01 TotalBiscuit wrote: So I'd like to ask the thread exactly what they expected out of TL. The burden of proof is on the accuser. It is not up to MVP to do the impossible, that being to prove a negative. It is up to everyone else to prove Marineking was involved in matchfixing. Thus far all they have to go on is Pinnacle suspending betting on that match, which is not an awful lot to go on. Suspicious betting activity does not in fact mean that there was any wrongdoing. I'm honestly a little surprised at some peoples willingness to just say "yup, he obviously did it and this statement doesnt convince me otherwise". Tell me, exactly what would convince you? How exactly could they convince you? They can't, they have no means to, you can't prove conclusively a negative. based biscuit has spoken | ||
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