GSL Season Three
Code S

Group B Preview
Rain, EffOrt, Solar, sOs

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

by banjoetheredskin

During 2014 GSL Season 2, one of the most catastrophic seasons for fan favorites, two upsets stood out in particular. In the Ro16, Group B ended in shocking fashion – in a group composed of Solar, Rain, Life, and ParalyzE, Rain and Life were both eliminated. Although neither of them played poorly, they performed below the standard to which they are typically held. Now Rain is back in the Ro16, this time with the advantage of having been able to pick his first group member. Unsurprisingly he chose EffOrt, known for his statistically horrendous ZvP. EffOrt, perhaps unexpectedly to some, picked the rising Samsung star Solar. Whether EffOrt is confident in the mirror matchup or has some master plan, it might not be a coincidence that he selected the man who schooled Rain in last season's Ro16. To round out the group, Solar chose sOs. This was yet another rematch as EffOrt and sOs were just in the Ro32 together. Despite his documented struggles in ZvP, he shocked almost everyone by defeating sOs in the winner's match and going 4-1 in his worst matchup. Two group-mates from last season and two from last round; it's likely that an extra layer of preparation and mind games will spice up the night's matches.

The priority of first pick was determined by WCS points, granting SKT T1 Rain the powerful privilege. Although it seems like this has been said many times about the Archangel Protoss, Rain might be playing the best StarCraft of his life right now. He has maintained a 73% winrate in the PvP and PvZ matchups over the past two months, with the majority of his games played against zergs. He qualified for the KeSPA Cup exclusively off the back of his PvZ, going 8-2 in maps and beating the likes of Life, Hydra, and Curious. He also decisively beat Rogue 2-0 in the Ro32. Rain is renowned for playing safe, standard macro games and showing no fear (or much weakness) in the late game. The PvZ games that he has tried to play out of his comfort zone provide great examples of why he doesn't do so often: botched cannon rushes and failed all-ins. However, he is not invulnerable in macro games either. Last season, Solar looked superior even when Rain was playing in his element. Enduring wave after wave of harass while building a superior composition, Solar beat Rain at his own game. Rain is predictable, and that is his outlying weakness. Despite this flaw, it is still incredibly difficult to defend such well-executed tactics. Looking at his recent record, few players have had success against him even knowing his playstyle. Since February, Life and Solar are the only zergs to have beaten Rain in a Bo3 series. Rain may have to thank his fantastic practice partners, Soulkey and soO, for his success.

As for the mirror matchup, Rain has looked even more superb than in his PvZ. He is 13-4 since May, only dropping two maps to Stork, one to Zest, and one to sOs. Rain displayed outstanding decision-making and map-tailored builds in the Proleague playoffs, beating Hush, herO, and Zest. He is absolutely terrifying in the matchup, rarely faltering with even somewhat risky expansion builds. His primary success has been through Proleague, and one of the reasons is because he plans out builds so well for each map. His games against Zest provide excellent examples of his preparation. Rain's builds essentially forced Zest down one tech path or into one decision while he was already countering it with his own next decision. Subsequently, Rain capitalized on his advantages with powerful macro and closed out the games well before either player could max out. One could make a strong case that Rain has the best PvP in the world right now, and few would argue. An possibly exploitable aspect of his play, however, is that he often rushes tech or makes aggressive tech switches. The extent to which his opponents can manipulate this tendency is questionable, though, due to the nature of PvP and the heavy influence maps can have on strategies and playstyles. If Rain were to advance it would be largely due to the top-notch PvZ that he has been exhibiting lately, relentlessly pestering his adversaries with phoenixes or zealots while crafting the ultimate army, and possibly due to his astute strategies in the mirror matchup.

Rain's pick was the ZvP-averse CJ EffOrt. Before the Ro32, he had not won a single offline game against protoss in 2014. He also had the $100,000 man sOs and the reigning champion Classic in his group. Who could have predicted EffOrt to advance? High horsing aside it really was a surprise to see EffOrt advance, but it was never unfathomable in the first place. Classic plays a standard and greedy macro style, which is vulnerable to early pools and aggression: EffOrt intelligently used early pools and aggression. sOs, perhaps a stronger PvZ player than Classic due to his more diverse arsenal of strategies, also dropped a game to an early pool and lost the other because he used a build that EffOrt had studied and subsequently countered. EffOrt, who was on the verge of dropping to 30% in the matchup this year, managed to transfer his strengths, preparation and mechanical prowess into a first place finish. The Hawk is up against a bigger test now though, not only drawing a rematch against an angry sOs but also facing the Adele Protoss + Show Spoiler +. Now that EffOrt has shown some worth in the matchup, he can possibly push that advantage to keep his opponents guessing. However, his only victories in ZvP came with a factor of mystery. During the Ro32 he revealed his schemes, and now EffOrt must prove that he can either continue to use the same strategies with success or employ something completely different. It was obvious that neither sOs nor Classic cared that EffOrt loves the mutalisk switch and rarely uses swarm hosts, and they both played their own styles to no avail. Now that sOs has the chance to redeem himself, will he kill the CJ Zerg before mutalisks or pull another trick out of his sleeve? Is Rain comfortable enough in his own macro style to outplay EffOrt, or is he also concerned? Given the time to practice and the material to study, EffOrt has transcended ZvP ineptitude for now, which adds quite the flavor to how the group could play out.

The enigma of EffOrt does not stop at the ZvP matchup, as he could also face ZvZ tonight. His recent results indicate relative success: he won a macro game against Soulkey in the Proleague playoffs while exhibited both tenacious defense and sharp decision-making against Leenock in Code A. Yet on the year he is a mere 48% in ZvZ. Although he does seem to have improved in the last few weeks, it may not be enough to get past Solar. Similarly to ZvP, EffOrt is capable of opening early pool and macroing behind well-controlled attacks, so it should be no surprise if EffOrt relies on timings or early pools against Solar. But if his preceding performance is anything to respect, EffOrt can be expected to come out well-practiced and competitive with some of the best. Nevertheless, EffOrt could avoid the mirror entirely – just like in his Ro32 group – if he keeps playing well in ZvP, and his efforts[sic] could be rewarded with an appearance in the Ro8.

EffOrt's selection was Solar, the zerg ace for Samsung. It seems rather confusing that EffOrt would want the prodigy in his group due to his own sub-par ZvZ and the fact that Solar has looked pretty strong in the mirror. Since June he is 46-30 with a tremendous amount of games played in online tournaments, primarily the Redbull Online qualifiers. He also made it all the way to the finals of the main event, showing that his only weakness appeared to be DongRaeGu. With an abundance of televised games available for analysis, it may be EffOrt's intent to study and plan hard for his zerg opponent. Regardless of EffOrt's reasoning, Solar is dangerous in the matchup. He typically plays an adept roach macro style, but has also shown flashes of innovation with speedling timings and uninhibitedly mixes in early pools. A diverse playstyle is hard to prepare against, and Solar's success suggests he can be confident should he play EffOrt.

As for his ZvP, Solar claims it is his best matchup with good reason. In his last 50 games in the matchup, he is 40-10. Against the macro monster Rain, he demonstrated remarkable resilience to harassment and impeccable macro of his own. In his other tournaments such as IEM Shenzen, Proleague, and the Redbull Online qualifiers, he confirmed that the performance against Rain was no fluke. Just like his ZvZ, Solar's strength lies in a diverse set of playstyles and very smart reactions. He knows exactly how to respond to nearly everything protoss can throw at him, and he perseveres until he has the advantage in either economy or army composition. Just watch his series against the notoriously cheeky Jim. He is proficient at every stage of the game and there are few players in the world confident enough to take Solar on in his strongest matchup. No player is invincible though, and Solar does appear to have a slight weakness in judgement. He can make over-extensions and stay on tech for too long, allowing his opponents back into games that he should have closed out earlier. Solar has a fair amount to prove, as he'll certainly be looking to exceed his Ro8 run from last season, and the younger player could face some pressure and nervousness. Still, it is likely he will get to play ZvP the whole night so the group still plays heavily into Solar's favor.

Solar's pick ought not surprise given his stellar ZvP as of late. Jin Air sOs might be one of the best planners in the business but when it comes to preparation, he is not as dominant in PvZ as he is in PvP and PvT. His Blizzcon beatdown of Jaedong last year would suggest the opposite, but his preferences for cannon rushes and stargate-oriented play have been somewhat figured out. After all, it was the reason EffOrt edged him out in the Ro32 and Shine upset him the season before. Even at IEM, Snute dismantled sOs with strong defense against aggression and sharp timings of his own. That said sOs is still capable of pulling out a dirty creative cannon rush or 2-3 base all-in that he can use once or twice, which is all he would theoretically need to advance. Solar could very well be a tough match for sOs, but the latter defines unpredictability. It isn't safe to assume that he will play stargate, even though he does show preference for it, so Solar will likely be forced to play a normal game rather than do anything specific. Now that sOs has been exposed to EffOrt's strategies, it is quite possible that he has developed something stargate-oriented or an early all-in to deal with the CJ zerg should they meet again.

If there is one player in the world who can contest Rain's title for Best PvPer, it is probably sOs. A 67% winrate is absolutely no joke, and he has achieved it in his element. This year, the only Bo3 or greater series he has lost in the matchup were against Zest, Classic, Rain and now First; in fact, First and MC claimed sOs had the best PvP in Korea. Often opting for risky or uncommon strategies, sOs diversifies his play in PvP as much as anyone. His instinct for, and willingness to use, proxies has helped him dominate some of the best protosses, yet he has maintained a balance between aggressive builds and safe expands. He might not be known for his macro PvP dominance like Rain, but his early game can rival the best Rain has to offer. Despite his prowess in the matchup, sOs prematurely exited IEM Toronto at the hands of his admirer First. While sOs did not look bad First displayed better decision-making in their second series, even managing to come back from a disadvantageous position. Nevertheless, one Bo3 does not carry enough weight to suggest that sOs is not equally capable of putting on the clinic that First did. The prospect of a Rain vs The Moneybag Protoss match still promises to be the highest of high-level PvP series. Overall sOs' underlying strength is his spectrum of strategies. After what could be considered an embarrassment against EffOrt last round, don't expect him to be out-prepared this time around.

Overall Thoughts and Predictions

As much as I would love to cause another outrage by predicting EffOrt to make it out, this group feels much harder than the last one. Rain has looked really good and I'm sure he'll be well-practiced, securing at least second place. Beyond him I'd say it's pretty much a lock for Solar. His ZvP is looking fantastic and his ZvZ is very solid. Even then I'm inclined to believe that EffOrt picked Solar because he's feeling confident in the mirror, or at least in being able to study up on his games. I just don't believe in his ZvP anymore. He isn't very good at playing any other styles besides what he has already shown, and that shouldn't be too difficult to prepare for as his opponents. As for $O$, his showing at IEM was lackluster at best. Whether he was saving his better builds for this GSL group or he's not the innovator we once knew him as, I don't see much that makes me want to believe in him. Ultimately I have to believe that the ever-reliable Rain will advance. Solar does have a lot of games to study, but I think his ZvP is better than both protosses' and I'd give him the edge to take first.

Rain > EffOrt
Solar > sOs
Rain < Solar
EffOrt > sOs
EffOrt < Rain

Solar and Rain advance to the Round of 8.

Writers: banjoetheredskin.
Graphics: Meru.
Photo: GOMeXP.
Editor: lichter, CosmicSpiral.