EPTRo32: Group E Preview
StarDust, 
FireCake, BabyKnight, FirstCountdown:
by Waxangel
We're halfway through the WCS Europe Ro32, and so far Europe has been holding strong against the Koreans. Harstem advanced in Group C at the expense of jjakji, while ToD edged out Mvp in Group D. Say what you will about a cross-server lag disadvantage for Mvp – eliminating one of the legends of StarCraft 2 is always a fine achievement regardless of the circumstances.
As we head into Group E, we have to wonder if the Europeans will be able to keep their momentum going. Two Europeans in
BabyKnight and FireCake face two Koreans in StarDust and First, and at least on paper it seems like the two Koreans should be the favorites.How can you pick against
mYi.StarDust, a player who's always lurking around the podium in Europe? The mYi Protoss finished 6th and 8th in the previous two seasons of WCS Europe, and more recently placed in the top eight of DreamHack Bucharest. Even though StarDust has dropped some series unexpectedly (a 1-2 loss to BlinG in the last WCS Europe Ro32 comes to mind), he's rarely been troubled in the group stages of tournaments.StarDust's PvP is particularly notable, as he has a win-loss record of 17-7 since March and 53-23 record since the start of the year. That should serve him especially well in a group where he has two potential Protoss opponents.
The one big complication for StarDust is that he will be playing this match from Korea. Though he has been based in mYi's European team house for quite some time, he is presently visiting Korea. While it's certainly debatable as to exactly how much cross-server lag can influence a player, there's no doubt that there are some adverse effects.
As for our other Korean Protoss
First, the forecast is cloudier. Less than a year ago, First looked like one of the world's best players as he placed 5th in the OnGameNet Starleague and top four in the WCS Season 2 Finals. Instead of building on that success, First almost immediately fell into anonymity. Dropping all the way down to Code A, First opted to switch regions and give WCS Europe a try. Unfortunately he failed to make it through the ladder wild card qualifier for season one. Coupled with no Proleague appearances due to his departure from team IM, First ended up falling off the radar for several months.First caught our attention again by making the move Europe, settling in at the GEM team/agency's house in Germany. Alongside YoDa, HyuN, and MC, he's been trying to make inroads into the European scene.
So far, the results have been mixed. DreamHack Bucharest was a certified disaster, as he suffered Ro32 elimination at the hands of Bunny and Zanster. Though he has a good record in online competition, his inability to defeat the upper echelon of WCS players like MC, Snute, MMA, and HyuN is worrisome.
At the same time, he's been excellent in WCS Europe so far. Asides from a loss to Patience in the first qualifier, First has yet to lose a single series as he's climbed from the qualifiers to reach Challenger, going all the way up into Premier League. With an impressive recent PvP record and a guaranteed PvP in his first match, First seems to be in a good position to advance from the group. However, we have to wonder whether he will be a real championship contender going forward.
Our third Protoss in the group is Danish Protoss player
Mill.BabyKnight, who recently made the headlines by announcing that he would be switching back to Dota. BabyKnight cited his poor mental state as the reason, resulting from a destructive cycle of unsatisfactory results and lack of practice. We'd love for BabyKnight to go though to the Ro16 so that he might find the motivation to stay the course with StarCraft 2. However, his announcement post does paint a rather bleak picture at this time, and we have to wonder exactly how hard he will be focusing on these matches. Even if BabyKnight's attention has shifted primarily toward Dota, he could still have a chance – his record against Koreans Protosses stands at 18-26 (40%) in HotS, which means he could see his career unexpectedly extended if he catches a few breaks.
Finally, lone Zerg
PunchLine_FireCake rounds out the the group. The French Zerg is mostly known playing excruciatingly long games and for appearing on the front page of /r/StarCraft for unfortunate reasons. It's quite a shame, because all that has masked his quiet rise through the ranks to become a WCS Europe Premier League regular. Firecake knows how to survive, and this season marks his third consecutive season making it into WCS Premier.Unfortunately for FireCake, and fans who are rooting for a foreigner to get through, FireCake's actual performances in WCS Premier have been dismal so far. He's exited the last two seasons with 0-4 records, and he's still looking for his first map win in WCS Premier League. Even worse, FireCake's record against Korean pros stands at a dreadful 11-31, which doesn't bode well for him headed into this group.
Overall thoughts and predictions: Sorry, Europe. From our view across the ocean, it seems like the Koreans are going to take this group. There are some complicating factors like BabyKnight's retirement, StarDust's cross-server play, and the general unpredictability of PvP, but when you factor it all in it doesn't look good for the Europeans.
StarDust > FireCake
First > BabyKnight
First > StarDust
FireCake > BabyKnight
StarDust > FireCake
First and StarDust advance.
