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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 23 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And more graphs!
WCS AM/EU finished with days 1 and 2,GSL Code A done with groups A-J.
Also set the groups for IEM Sao Paulo, and Life replacing Vortix at ASUS.
I added a graph for summed probabilities for the teams, grouped by KESPA, ESF (only 2 teams now...), and Other.
Also added a graph for summed probabilities for different countries, which I think works better as a bar graph rather than a pie chart. Koreans are at ~1207% while foreigners are at ~ 393%, think of this as a preview for the Foreigner Hope Rating. You can zoom on this graph, just click and drag.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And ASUS groups!
WCS EU Challenger finished with days 1, 2 and 3, WCS AM Challenger finished with days 1 and 2, GSL Code A done with groups A-J.
Also set the groups for ASUS ROG, and made the teams pie chart color coded.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 4:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Code A Finished!
GSL Code A is now finished. Jjakji is currently a walkover in Code S.
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http://sc2.4ever.tv
Some people have expressed confusion over the summed percentage graphs and how they are out of 1600% instead of 100%. I won't explain my reasoning because I don't want to bias the poll.
Poll: How should summed percentages be displayedOut of 100% (11) 85% Out of 1600% (2) 15% 13 total votes Your vote: How should summed percentages be displayed (Vote): Out of 1600%
(Vote): Out of 100%
And a bonus poll
Poll: How good does the design of the site look?Good (6) 50% Meh (3) 25% Bad (3) 25% 12 total votes Your vote: How good does the design of the site look? (Vote): Good
(Vote): Meh
(Vote): Bad
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Keep up the work, this site is awesome, I visit it religiously, and I'm glad you keep updating it! 
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Just thinking about some other changes you might make to the "Players Table". At some point you'll probably want to have the player's current WCS points. I might also suggest you put in there the player's median predicted final point total or something like that (depending of course on how the simulator is actually making the predictions. I'm assuming it is making a prediction on outcomes of all WCS seasons and all known tournaments, and assigning points for those outcomes).
If you can get flags, you should also include those in the section on the foreigner hope rating.
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On January 25 2014 05:58 Sherlock117 wrote:
Just thinking about some other changes you might make to the "Players Table". At some point you'll probably want to have the player's current WCS points. I might also suggest you put in there the player's median predicted final point total or something like that (depending of course on how the simulator is actually making the predictions. I'm assuming it is making a prediction on outcomes of all WCS seasons and all known tournaments, and assigning points for those outcomes).
If you can get flags, you should also include those in the section on the foreigner hope rating.
I want to add the current WCS points after I do the foreigner hope rating stuff. Also the minimum number of WCS points the player can get and/or the minimum number of points they can get while qualifying. I could do median WCS points, but maybe mean or mode would be better?
Yes I do need race and flag icons. I tried asking @Liquipedia if I could use their race icons but they told me to ask blizzard, I tweeted at @starcraft and they didn't respond, so maybe I just need to ask somewhere else. Blizzard has race icons in their fan site pack, but I don't like them as much. Flag icons should be easy to find any random free pack of them.
Thanks for your feedback!
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On January 25 2014 06:35 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2014 05:58 Sherlock117 wrote:
Just thinking about some other changes you might make to the "Players Table". At some point you'll probably want to have the player's current WCS points. I might also suggest you put in there the player's median predicted final point total or something like that (depending of course on how the simulator is actually making the predictions. I'm assuming it is making a prediction on outcomes of all WCS seasons and all known tournaments, and assigning points for those outcomes).
If you can get flags, you should also include those in the section on the foreigner hope rating. I want to add the current WCS points after I do the foreigner hope rating stuff. Also the minimum number of WCS points the player can get and/or the minimum number of points they can get while qualifying. I could do median WCS points, but maybe mean or mode would be better? Yes I do need race and flag icons. I tried asking @Liquipedia if I could use their race icons but they told me to ask blizzard, I tweeted at @starcraft and they didn't respond, so maybe I just need to ask somewhere else. Blizzard has race icons in their fan site pack, but I don't like them as much. Flag icons should be easy to find any random free pack of them. Thanks for your feedback!
No problem.
That's a good question. The median is going to be slightly higher than the mode since the distribution will tend to be right-skewed. I would say the median will give you the "expected outcome" since it sits in the middle of all the simulation, whereas the mode will give you the "most likely outcome" out of many. I think the median would be slightly more accurate of a predictor, but I could be wrong.
You are probably pretty well known on Liquipedia now after the popularity contest. Have you tried pm'ing any of the other people who were in the contest? They might be able to point you towards the right person to get the flag and race icons.
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Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
It also shows the foreigner hopes, the players with the best chances of being the only foreigner. And there's still the graph for summed chances for the top countries.
I also added red and pink borders around important upcoming matches, where red is more important than pink. These are matches that are determined to happen often enough and cause a big enough difference to both players.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
edit: oh yea and I changed the summed percentage graphs to be out of 100 instead of 1600 based on that poll
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I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro_samurai#PlotIt's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points).
If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S.
If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
I also added biggest winners and biggest losers. It looks back 5 days before the newest simulation. So if the current simulation is 2 days old, then it will compare to a simulation at least 7 days old.
I'm gonna do some tweaks for now and hopefully add some icons for countries and races lol. For the next big feature I'll let you guys decide.
Poll: What feature to add next?current/min/max/mean/median/mode WCS Points (3) 50% Event Markers on Player Probability Graphs (a dot for the day of the GSL finals) (3) 50% Achievements (0) 0% WCS Point Cutoffs (0) 0% Other - leave a comment (0) 0% 6 total votes Your vote: What feature to add next? (Vote): Achievements
(Vote): Event Markers on Player Probability Graphs (a dot for the day of the GSL finals)
(Vote): current/min/max/mean/median/mode WCS Points
(Vote): WCS Point Cutoffs
(Vote): Other - leave a comment
Achievements will be like Polt Award for winning 2 WCS Regionals in a row, The Other NesTea award for winning a WCS Regional without losing a single map, some achievements for win streaks, etc. If you have suggestions for achievements or achievement names feel free to post them.
Event markers on the player probability graphs would show markers for when tournaments started/ended, and some for changes made to WCS Predictor (like TeSL added to simulation).
WCS Point Cutoffs would be like what was in the previous version, something like this
0.125333% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
43.9743% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
69.4957% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
79.695% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
98.5627% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
100% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
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--------UPDATE Monday, Jan 27 12:10am GMT (GMT+00:00) New features!
Added Foreigner Hope section.
+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] +Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
Added pink and red borders around important upcoming matches.
+ Show Spoiler [Important Upcoming Matches] +I also added red and pink borders around important upcoming matches, where red is more important than pink. These are matches that are determined to happen often enough and cause a big enough difference to both players.
Added Headbands
+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals). Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro_samurai#PlotIt's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points. So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband. Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband. sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband. A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
Added Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners and Losers] +I also added biggest winners and biggest losers. It looks back 5 days before the newest simulation. So if the current simulation is 2 days old, then it will compare to a simulation at least 7 days old.
I also changed summed percentage graphs changed to be out of 100% instead of out of 1600% to avoid confusion.
Also added liquidpedia scraping to ASUS ROG, so now those matches show up in the upcoming matches section.
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--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 7:25am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM and GSL Wildcards!
Added IEM to the upcoming matched list. It was in the simulation before, just didn't have the date/time for it.
Also added the GSL Wildcards to the simulation, for replacing Jjakji. This currently has the round of 12 completed.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_1/Code_A#Wildcard_Tournament
Notice the big winners from this, and how their graph shoots up lol. Sleep, Cure, Paralyze, Gumiho, Dream, and Stork.
I also added some icons, made player names have tooltips and be links, and touched up the player pages a little bit.
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http://sc2.4ever.tv
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Ahah ParalizE's chance to top16 just jumped
Awesome job, thank you
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http://sc2.4ever.tv
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 30 6:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Group A Completed, WCS AM Challenger Completed, GSL Code S Groups Set!
It seems the biggest loser resulting from the Code S groups is Solar, who got a way harder than average group with Rain, herO, and DongRaeGu. Solar went from 21.52% in the previous update down to 18.26% in this update.
I also added borders and text in the upcoming matches section for headband matches, check out Jaedong's upcoming match in ASUS for an example of a #2 headband match. #1 headband match will be similar but with a gold border instead of silver.
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Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats.
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On January 31 2014 06:07 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats.
Thank you for the feedback. For season 2 I definitely plan on doing the full year instead of just the season. I just feel like season 1 is too far away to do that, considering that someone can go from Code B to Code S Champion in 1 season now.
Predicting tournament winners instead is an interesting idea, I could make a section for most likely tournament champions. I guess it would look like (I'm making up all these numbers)
Taeja has a 40% chance to win WCS AM Premier.
Bomber has a 37% chance to win IEM Sao Paulo.
Taeja has a 35% chance to win ASUS ROG.
Life has a 30% chance to win ASUS ROG.
Polt has a 22% chance to win WCS AM Premier.
Jaedong has a 20% chance to win WCS AM Premier.
Rain has a 15% chance to win GSL Code S.
Something like that.
I would keep all the graphs the same because it would be a lot of work to redo all those just for the remainder of this season.
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On January 31 2014 06:24 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2014 06:07 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats. Thank you for the feedback. For season 2 I definitely plan on doing the full year instead of just the season. I just feel like season 1 is too far away to do that, considering that someone can go from Code B to Code S Champion in 1 season now. Predicting tournament winners instead is an interesting idea, I could make a section for most likely tournament champions. I guess it would look like (I'm making up all these numbers) Taeja has a 40% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Bomber has a 37% chance to win IEM Sao Paulo. Taeja has a 35% chance to win ASUS ROG. Life has a 30% chance to win ASUS ROG. Polt has a 22% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Jaedong has a 20% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Rain has a 15% chance to win GSL Code S. Something like that. I would keep all the graphs the same because it would be a lot of work to redo all those just for the remainder of this season.
I was thinking of something much like that, but optimally (I have no ability to take into account how hard any of this is to do) have an expandable list for each tournament that shows the chances of each player to win the tournament. It would be cool to see how those percentages change as they advance through and matchups are set. So by default maybe show the 3(?) players with the highest chance of winning but an expandable full list would be great for those who want to see it--it would be fun to know for example who has the LEAST chance of winning Code S (of the players in it), etc.
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On January 31 2014 06:30 Yakikorosu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2014 06:24 Die4Ever wrote:On January 31 2014 06:07 Yakikorosu wrote:
Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats. Thank you for the feedback. For season 2 I definitely plan on doing the full year instead of just the season. I just feel like season 1 is too far away to do that, considering that someone can go from Code B to Code S Champion in 1 season now. Predicting tournament winners instead is an interesting idea, I could make a section for most likely tournament champions. I guess it would look like (I'm making up all these numbers) Taeja has a 40% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Bomber has a 37% chance to win IEM Sao Paulo. Taeja has a 35% chance to win ASUS ROG. Life has a 30% chance to win ASUS ROG. Polt has a 22% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Jaedong has a 20% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Rain has a 15% chance to win GSL Code S. Something like that. I would keep all the graphs the same because it would be a lot of work to redo all those just for the remainder of this season. I was thinking of something much like that, but optimally (I have no ability to take into account how hard any of this is to do) have an expandable list for each tournament that shows the chances of each player to win the tournament. It would be cool to see how those percentages change as they advance through and matchups are set. So by default maybe show the 3(?) players with the highest chance of winning but an expandable full list would be great for those who want to see it--it would be fun to know for example who has the LEAST chance of winning Code S (of the players in it), etc.
Yea I like your idea better. I should be able to add it this weekend.
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Awesome. Also this is just a matter of taste but I vote for a different font. I find too much Times New Roman kind of hard on the eyes. Maybe Calibri or if you're feeling adventurous Agency FB or something? I'm not a font maven, but on such a text-heavy site I think it's important. You should have a poll to vote for fonts or something. ^_^
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On January 31 2014 06:44 Yakikorosu wrote:
Awesome. Also this is just a matter of taste but I vote for a different font. I find too much Times New Roman kind of hard on the eyes. Maybe Calibri or if you're feeling adventurous Agency FB or something? I'm not a font maven, but on such a text-heavy site I think it's important. You should have a poll to vote for fonts or something. ^_^
Haha I wouldn't even know which fonts to put as choices in the poll, feel free to make the poll for me.
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EPT
