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On January 21 2014 17:07 Fubi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 16:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 15:49 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 15:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 13:29 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 12:37 Crazometer wrote:On January 21 2014 12:06 Fubi wrote:
Dafuq, when did The Genius become a game of luck? Skills, definitely, Personality/Alliances/Charisma, sure... but pure luck? really? + Show Spoiler +Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.
It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage. + Show Spoiler +Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.
While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.
+ Show Spoiler + Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.
Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?
Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.
In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.
Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^
Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.
edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call + Show Spoiler +What, sorry I don't understand your analysis, especially with the Jiwon going all in with only a 3, can you (or someone) clarify?
I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:
So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:
4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have
there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.
Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)
These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.
Look at it another one, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He he doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he? + Show Spoiler + Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even! And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand. Do you know what I am saying? + Show Spoiler +Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).
But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so.
+ Show Spoiler +It is not the most logical choice to all-in when you see the opponent has a 2. The large majority of the time, the opponent will fold and you win only 1 chip. It's much better to bet a smaller amount, like maybe 5 chips, because there's a much higher chance he will call that bet.
Also, going all-in every round is a terrible strategy. It is highly exploitable, and I don't know why you would assume that Jiwon would employ such a strategy. Maybe he's dumb enough to do it, but I'm doubtful.
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On January 21 2014 18:52 Slithe wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 17:07 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 16:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 15:49 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 15:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 13:29 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 12:37 Crazometer wrote:On January 21 2014 12:06 Fubi wrote:
Dafuq, when did The Genius become a game of luck? Skills, definitely, Personality/Alliances/Charisma, sure... but pure luck? really? + Show Spoiler +Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.
It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage. + Show Spoiler +Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.
While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.
+ Show Spoiler + Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.
Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?
Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.
In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.
Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^
Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.
edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call + Show Spoiler +What, sorry I don't understand your analysis, especially with the Jiwon going all in with only a 3, can you (or someone) clarify?
I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:
So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:
4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have
there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.
Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)
These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.
Look at it another one, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He he doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he? + Show Spoiler + Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even! And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su-HUDo7XQ4Do you know what I am saying? + Show Spoiler +Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).
But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so. + Show Spoiler +It is not the most logical choice to all-in when you see the opponent has a 2. The large majority of the time, the opponent will fold and you win only 1 chip. It's much better to bet a smaller amount, like maybe 5 chips, because there's a much higher chance he will call that bet.
Also, going all-in every round is a terrible strategy. It is highly exploitable, and I don't know why you would assume that Jiwon would employ such a strategy. Maybe he's dumb enough to do it, but I'm doubtful.
+ Show Spoiler +Going all-in on the first round was a good move though. Jiwon knew had a 2, the weakest possible hand, so either he would start with an early 16-14 advantage because Yellow would fold or he would probably win. He looked more confident as Yellow wavered towards folding. The worst result for him would be a coin flip, which is actually a good thing for him because he would probably lose if the game got longer and Yellow could more precisely calculate the odds.
Arguably this confirms everyone's criticism of this season that there's nothing "genius" about the Genius. Anytime someone has thought of anything smart, it has been smacked down by popular votes, by betrayals, or now by coin flips.
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Ah, the theme of this Episode 7 is called God's Judgement, but I don't think there is one.
Episode 7 spoiler:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 21 2014 08:03 waterloobean wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Couldn't bear to watch Jinho get taken down this episode...his expression looked like he took defeat a lot harder than the other contestants I don't think I'm going to watch anymore..Thank you Clefairy for all the subs Yeah his eyes looked watery, but Doo Hee, he took it worse. I agree with some of you guys saying that the broadcasters alliance splitting up and teaming with Boxer and Yellow looks fake and forced. Like producers told them to? Or they realized what happened after the broadcast and wanted to fix their image?
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On January 21 2014 21:59 LoveJuice wrote:Ah, the theme of this Episode 7 is called God's Judgement, but I don't think there is one. Episode 7 spoiler: + Show Spoiler +On January 21 2014 08:03 waterloobean wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Couldn't bear to watch Jinho get taken down this episode...his expression looked like he took defeat a lot harder than the other contestants I don't think I'm going to watch anymore..Thank you Clefairy for all the subs Yeah his eyes looked watery, but Doo Hee, he took it worse. I agree with some of you guys saying that the broadcasters alliance splitting up and teaming with Boxer and Yellow looks fake and forced. Like producers told them to? Or they realized what happened after the broadcast and wanted to fix their image?
Either the producers forced them to, or they felt bad. Filming takes place weeks ahead of broadcast so it can't have been because of the contoversy in Ep6.
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On January 21 2014 21:21 coverpunch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 18:52 Slithe wrote:On January 21 2014 17:07 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 16:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 15:49 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 15:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 13:29 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 12:37 Crazometer wrote:On January 21 2014 12:06 Fubi wrote:
Dafuq, when did The Genius become a game of luck? Skills, definitely, Personality/Alliances/Charisma, sure... but pure luck? really? + Show Spoiler +Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.
It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage. + Show Spoiler +Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.
While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.
+ Show Spoiler + Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.
Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?
Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.
In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.
Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^
Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.
edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call + Show Spoiler +What, sorry I don't understand your analysis, especially with the Jiwon going all in with only a 3, can you (or someone) clarify?
I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:
So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:
4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have
there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.
Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)
These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.
Look at it another one, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He he doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he? + Show Spoiler + Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even! And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su-HUDo7XQ4Do you know what I am saying? + Show Spoiler +Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).
But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so. + Show Spoiler +It is not the most logical choice to all-in when you see the opponent has a 2. The large majority of the time, the opponent will fold and you win only 1 chip. It's much better to bet a smaller amount, like maybe 5 chips, because there's a much higher chance he will call that bet.
Also, going all-in every round is a terrible strategy. It is highly exploitable, and I don't know why you would assume that Jiwon would employ such a strategy. Maybe he's dumb enough to do it, but I'm doubtful. + Show Spoiler +Going all-in on the first round was a good move though. Jiwon knew had a 2, the weakest possible hand, so either he would start with an early 16-14 advantage because Yellow would fold or he would probably win. He looked more confident as Yellow wavered towards folding. The worst result for him would be a coin flip, which is actually a good thing for him because he would probably lose if the game got longer and Yellow could more precisely calculate the odds.
Arguably this confirms everyone's criticism of this season that there's nothing "genius" about the Genius. Anytime someone has thought of anything smart, it has been smacked down by popular votes, by betrayals, or now by coin flips.
+ Show Spoiler +I doubt Yellow was wavering, but rather just completely surprised. Yellow couldn't lose against Jiwon's 2, he had 90+% chance to win, and a slight chance to draw. It's a really weird choice by Jiwon, the opponent would never call your all-in if the odds aren't with him. If the odds are not with him, he can get alot of information on your play by folding and seeing his own card.
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On January 21 2014 14:24 hellokitty[hk] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 14:16 N.geNuity wrote:ep 7: + Show Spoiler +already mentioned in thread but how did sangmin get 35 chisp? He bought three dice right? -15 +10 from his starting 28.....
anyways, I think the carrying over to the next hand is a big lack of foresight because there is strategy to betting--my immediate thought was "can a game 'end' on a tie?". It is a much different bet and mentality to go allin than to simply bet chips on any other 'normal' hand, and if someone went all in and tied they would be forced to essentially be "all in" again on something that is entirely out of their control. It's not that fun nor skillful in a skill based game to "let fate decide".
I guess the game designer wanted a situation of whether a person would be able to "cut their losses" or maintain composure to make the right bet even on a second hand when you are already invested from the previous hand (assuming things played out normally, like a pot with a 5-5 tie just carrying over). But that seems silly to me since that is literally what a normal game of hold em is about, and even this game has that mentality. especially since there is reraising, not like the sun/moon/star game betting pattern where the original bet is fixed.
It was just pure coincidence that the very first hand resulted in both going all in [and correctly making the bet, not just a "fuck it" situation]. Was funny that the next hand was a tie too though, but that's an oddity.
ah well. Main match was more fun though, and props to producers for incorporating garnets [since, if you're going to implement a game mechanic, you might as well use it] + Show Spoiler +The chips he spent are a deposit? Since he won he gets them all back. The losers loose their deposit.
+ Show Spoiler +
Yup, thats true.
The chips of Changmin:
Start of the game: 28.
Buying 3 dices: 28-15=13
Giving 3 garnets to JH: 13-3=10
Winning the game with 10: 10+10=20
So Sangmin bought 3 and won the game so he got his investment of the 3 dices back:
20+15=35
There you go. And the garnetcount from the rest of the players is just because they combined their chips together to buy dices. Like Boxer and Yooyoung bought 4 together. Jinho, Hongchul and Jiwon bought 4 together as well.
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+ Show Spoiler +It's sad that Yellow's last match came down to pure luck, but I guess he could've folded and taken it from there with a 2 chip deficit. Well that's life, gg. I hope he stays popular and appears on more shows and as we will get to see him play SC again soon, it's all good.
Thanks for the subs!
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I hope we can see Yellow on a lot of other shows as well. He did alot of work recently in television and so on. The only thing I am worried about is his pronounciation...
Here is an old interview where you can hear how bad it is :
+ Show Spoiler +
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On January 21 2014 15:45 Clefairy wrote:
Yellow has another TV gig. He's going to be part of a new show with Gura, Lee Kyung Kyu and Kim Sung Joo. I think it could be pretty good based on the hosts.
With Kim Gura of all person? Looks like kong gets to see his idol again!
Btw, any idea what sort of genre the show will be? Any little information is good.
And also, thanks for the weekly subs~
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On January 22 2014 03:55 Clefairy wrote:BTS + Show Spoiler +http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjQ9o4TcSy8
+ Show Spoiler +thank you so much for this, also both jinho and the dealer wanting to see the next card too was funny thats how I felt too haha.
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+ Show Spoiler +I'd be interested in seeing the exact probability of both of them getting the same card twice in a row :p must be very slim
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On January 21 2014 18:52 Slithe wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 17:07 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 16:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 15:49 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 15:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 13:29 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 12:37 Crazometer wrote:On January 21 2014 12:06 Fubi wrote:
Dafuq, when did The Genius become a game of luck? Skills, definitely, Personality/Alliances/Charisma, sure... but pure luck? really? + Show Spoiler +Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.
It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage. + Show Spoiler +Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.
While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.
+ Show Spoiler + Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.
Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?
Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.
In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.
Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^
Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.
edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call + Show Spoiler +What, sorry I don't understand your analysis, especially with the Jiwon going all in with only a 3, can you (or someone) clarify?
I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:
So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:
4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have
there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.
Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)
These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.
Look at it another one, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He he doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he? + Show Spoiler + Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even! And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su-HUDo7XQ4Do you know what I am saying? + Show Spoiler +Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).
But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so. + Show Spoiler +It is not the most logical choice to all-in when you see the opponent has a 2. The large majority of the time, the opponent will fold and you win only 1 chip. It's much better to bet a smaller amount, like maybe 5 chips, because there's a much higher chance he will call that bet.
Also, going all-in every round is a terrible strategy. It is highly exploitable, and I don't know why you would assume that Jiwon would employ such a strategy. Maybe he's dumb enough to do it, but I'm doubtful.
+ Show Spoiler +in a normal game of poker, I'd completely agree with you. But in Jiwon's spot, given that he knows he won't beat his opponent straight up, and given the cards that he saw, that was literally the best move he could of went for. If he doesn't all in at that time, when should he?
It was pretty obvious that going all in and risking it on luck was his strategy from the start, considering how he rallied to have as few chips as possible.
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On January 22 2014 04:21 Fubi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 18:52 Slithe wrote:On January 21 2014 17:07 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 16:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 15:49 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 15:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 13:29 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 12:37 Crazometer wrote:On January 21 2014 12:06 Fubi wrote:
Dafuq, when did The Genius become a game of luck? Skills, definitely, Personality/Alliances/Charisma, sure... but pure luck? really? + Show Spoiler +Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.
It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage. + Show Spoiler +Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.
While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.
+ Show Spoiler + Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.
Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?
Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.
In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.
Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^
Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.
edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call + Show Spoiler +What, sorry I don't understand your analysis, especially with the Jiwon going all in with only a 3, can you (or someone) clarify?
I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:
So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:
4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have
there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.
Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)
These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.
Look at it another one, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He he doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he? + Show Spoiler + Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even! And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su-HUDo7XQ4Do you know what I am saying? + Show Spoiler +Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).
But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so. + Show Spoiler +It is not the most logical choice to all-in when you see the opponent has a 2. The large majority of the time, the opponent will fold and you win only 1 chip. It's much better to bet a smaller amount, like maybe 5 chips, because there's a much higher chance he will call that bet.
Also, going all-in every round is a terrible strategy. It is highly exploitable, and I don't know why you would assume that Jiwon would employ such a strategy. Maybe he's dumb enough to do it, but I'm doubtful. + Show Spoiler +in a normal game of poker, I'd completely agree with you. But in Jiwon's spot, given that he knows he won't beat his opponent straight up, and given the cards that he saw, that was literally the best move he could of went for. If he doesn't all in at that time, when should he?
It was pretty obvious that going all in and risking it on luck was his strategy from the start, considering how he rallied to have as few chips as possible.
+ Show Spoiler +He was very lucky that they both had a 2. This is pretty much the only situation where he could possibly force a coin flip. In any other scenario he's just wasting a prime opportunity by winning the absolute minimum.
3/37 times Jiwon gets the dream coin flip scenario. 8%
34/37 times yellow folds. 92%
Overall, 4% chance Jiwon wins, 4% chance Yellow wins, and 92% chance Jiwon gains 1 chip. I think he can do better than that.
edit: Deleted theorycraft because it's not worth debating here.
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+ Show Spoiler +To be honest I feel like Jinho messed up by calling the first all-in... he has to know that he has the advantage over a longer period of time playing Indian hold-em. By calling and getting a tie, he loses his advantage of being able to weigh out the probabilities of the future cards, since every hand after becomes blind luck. Had he folded the first all-in (and assuming that Jiwon decided to keep pressing all-in every hand after) and folded maybe the next 3-4 hands, he'd still be left with 9-10 chips with 16-20 cards used up out of the deck.
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On January 22 2014 06:06 Slithe wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 04:21 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 18:52 Slithe wrote:On January 21 2014 17:07 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 16:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 15:49 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 15:03 Knowerz wrote:On January 21 2014 13:29 Fubi wrote:On January 21 2014 12:37 Crazometer wrote:On January 21 2014 12:06 Fubi wrote:
Dafuq, when did The Genius become a game of luck? Skills, definitely, Personality/Alliances/Charisma, sure... but pure luck? really? + Show Spoiler +Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.
It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage. + Show Spoiler +Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.
While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.
+ Show Spoiler + Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.
Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?
Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.
In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.
Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^
Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.
edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call + Show Spoiler +What, sorry I don't understand your analysis, especially with the Jiwon going all in with only a 3, can you (or someone) clarify?
I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:
So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:
4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have
there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.
Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)
These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.
Look at it another one, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He he doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he? + Show Spoiler + Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even! And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su-HUDo7XQ4Do you know what I am saying? + Show Spoiler +Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).
But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so. + Show Spoiler +It is not the most logical choice to all-in when you see the opponent has a 2. The large majority of the time, the opponent will fold and you win only 1 chip. It's much better to bet a smaller amount, like maybe 5 chips, because there's a much higher chance he will call that bet.
Also, going all-in every round is a terrible strategy. It is highly exploitable, and I don't know why you would assume that Jiwon would employ such a strategy. Maybe he's dumb enough to do it, but I'm doubtful. + Show Spoiler +in a normal game of poker, I'd completely agree with you. But in Jiwon's spot, given that he knows he won't beat his opponent straight up, and given the cards that he saw, that was literally the best move he could of went for. If he doesn't all in at that time, when should he?
It was pretty obvious that going all in and risking it on luck was his strategy from the start, considering how he rallied to have as few chips as possible. + Show Spoiler +He was very lucky that they both had a 2. This is pretty much the only situation where he could possibly force a coin flip. In any other scenario he's just wasting a prime opportunity by winning the absolute minimum.
3/37 times he gets the dream coin flip scenario. 8%
34/37 times yellow folds. 92%
Overall, 4% chance Jiwon wins, 4% chance Yellow wins, and 92% chance Jiwon gains 1 chip. I think he can do better than that.
If I had to think of a different all-in strategy for Jiwon, it would be to go all-in whenever Yellow has a straight or trips and hope for the 10 chip penalty, kind of like what Gura did in season 1. Since they're playing with only 15 chips to start, a 10 chip penalty (with ante it's 11 chips) is significant.
Suppose the board is 4,5 and Yellow has a 6
4/37 times Jiwon has a 1 and loses. 11%
13/37 times Jiwon has a 3, 4, 5, or 6 and Yellow will fold. 35%
20/37 times Jiwon has a 2,7,8,9,10. 54%
Now it's not 100% clear what Yellow would do, but judging on his play style he's going to be conservative and fold the majority of the time. Let's say he folds if Jiwon has 8, 9,10 and calls if Jiwon has 2,7:
25/37 times Jiwon will cause Yellow to fold and get the 10 chip penalty. 68%
12/37 times Jiwon will get called and lose the game. 32%
These numbers can change based on Yellow's play, but I generally prefer these odds over the previous strategy. Even if he doesn't win outright, he would have a 26 to 4 chip advantage.
If we want to make sure that Yellow can't exploit the strategy as easily, we can do a combination of the two, where Jiwon goes all-in whenever Yellow has the lowest card or has a straight/trips. This can help to conceal the intentions of the all-in. If this is the intended strategy, then going all-in on the 2 isn't a bad play.
These numbers mean almost nothing in this situation lol.
Jiwon's point of view, Jinho had the worst hand possible, so he went all-in.
Yellow's point of view, it's obvious that Jiwon's hand is the worst possible. If he calls, at worst, he's splitting... However, he was contemplating the decision. Why? He read Jiwon, who was acting as if Yellow was weak. It was a marginal call for Yellow, but he knew that Jiwon would play ultra aggressive, and he might not get another chance as good as this. I think Jiwon would have moved all-in first go, even if Yellow had a 3 or a 4.Good call imo - pity he also had a 2.
Anyways, not gonna watch this anymore - it's not a genius game so much as scandalous-cheating-scumbag-game. I don't particularly want to watch/learn how to stab others in the back, nor am I interested in how society is depicted as every man for himself, with a superficial topping of camaraderie.
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Apparently Yellow went to MBC yesterday. Maybe he'll be on Radio Star or I Live Alone or some other show.
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On January 22 2014 13:40 Clefairy wrote:
Apparently Yellow went to MBC yesterday. Maybe he'll be on Radio Star or I Live Alone or some other show.
Interesting. Is he really that popular in South Korea right now?
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Does anyone like the dealers? Especially the female one? In the video you get to see some of her emotions too so it's kind of cool.
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On January 22 2014 15:03 UnKooL wrote:Does anyone like the dealers? Especially the female one? In the video you get to see some of her emotions too so it's kind of cool.
Yeah female dealer is cool. She was a Miss Korea contestant/quiz show winner/saved someone's life.
On January 22 2014 13:52 Siantlark wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 13:40 Clefairy wrote:
Apparently Yellow went to MBC yesterday. Maybe he'll be on Radio Star or I Live Alone or some other show. Interesting. Is he really that popular in South Korea right now?
Yeah.
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EPT
