BoxeR and YellOw appearing on The Genius season 2! - Page 43

KONG!!!!

2 episodes and the show got a looooot less interesting t_t

Guess I cheer for Junghyun now, only one I don't dislike =/ Boxer has been such a disappointment, after 7 episodes he hasn't done anything.

Jinho had the opportunity to limit his exposure by playing with more chips. While it appeared that he did try, and it was unclear who would finance them, if he had his suggested 5 garnet minimum he would've stood a much better chance of winning. Playing sub 10 was just ridiculous due to the three of a kind/straight penalty. Perhaps it was genius play by Jiwon to make it go the way that it did.

It still proved to be interesting even if the result was unsatisfactory. I wonder if the producers would've approved of the broadcasters (Sangmin) not giving Jinho any, or just a minimum of, garnets. I think that would've been the ultimate storyline for me, Jinho winning from a 1:4 disadvantage.

Well...I am putting all my hope in BoxeR now to redeem himself. Yellow lost to bad luck...

Actually, the number of chips in that scenario wouldn't have mattered, at least not for a rational person. It was pure luck that they both started with a 2... along with a 1 (ace) on the table. Seeing the other person's 2, a rational person would reason that since 1 is on the table (therefore, getting a 1 would make a pair), there is no way to lose. There is a 9/10 chance to win and 1/10 chance for a tie. Therefore, most people in that scenario would of gone all in as well, even if it was 5 garnets (25 chips). Then the next two sets of cards were down to pure luck as well.

While the game itself has some small potential to be interesting, what happened was literally pure luck. They need to make it so that the chips returns to the player in case of a tie, so that they are not relying on pure luck for their next sets of choice.

In my opinion, it was skilled of Jiwon to recognize that he probably couldn't have beaten Jinho straight up at Jinho's best game and therefore to turn it into a luck game instead. If Jinho had either gotten more chips to play with or not called the all-in he probably would have won. I agree that given what Jinho saw calling was a good idea but folding, to play safe, wouldn't have set him too far back.

At least the main match was heavily skill-based, after looking in the beginning like it was going to be very luck-dependant.


Edit: I also agree with the above suggestion, that if there is a tie with both players all-in they should just give the chips back and continue normal play instead of turning it into a glorified game of War.

No... He can just fold and lose the antes (the initial two chips you have to bet).

For me, only Boxer winning can save the show now.

The chips he spent are a deposit? Since he won he gets them all back. The losers loose their deposit.

Okay, just two thoughts - first on that point, your numbers are wrong. A player in that (Yellow's) position wouldn't feel like the odds of himself having a 2 would be 1 in ten - for Jiwon to go all in at the VERY worst Jiwon's playing a 3, but most likely a 3 - (and besides, it wouldn't be 1 in 10, it'd be 3 in 39, or 1 in 13, which makes a huge difference). No chance (at least very very low, which I don't value as even 1 in 39 - maybe yellOw thought different?) Jiwon goes all in with any other card... and I think it's VERY unlikely he goes all-in with the 3, but the correct call only matters in how often yellow thinks Jiwon plays the 3.

Let's say yellow chooses to play safe and folds to Jiwon's 2 - then he's at a 14-16 disadvantage in chips, or has 46.6% of the chips. So for it to be a correct call, he has to think Jiwon will play a 3, what, more than 8% of the time? Whatever lowers the odds from 50%... I'm not the best at calculating odds like this. Or would it be a 13-15 disadvantage because of the next forced ante?

Personally I don't think Jiwon plays a 3 less than 8% of the time, but that's still a fairly low number so I can see why yellow didn't go with it. Also I think if yellow folds it an Jiwon sees that he would fold seeing a 2 it shakes Jiwon's confidence and yellow gains back more than what he lost by going down 14-16 (13-15), also if you add an expected angle from yellow being able to remember the cards, but damn it's close. 15 is just so little to play with any deep strategy.

In any event, yes it matters whether they play with 25 or 15 chips, I sincerely doubt yellow calls an all-in first hand if he has 24 chips, and would like to know if anyone feels the same.

Kind of rambling, I hope this makes sense and I'm not missing something obvious. Also I think I spelled YellOw's name five different ways and probably none correctly. ^.^

Oh yeah my second point - pretty funny how they're 35 million won less at the end of the episode than at the beginning. hehe.

edit: Also I should mention that I think the result ends the same if Jinho goes first in the first round - he probably raises to 4 or 5, at which point Jiwon goes all-in and Jinho is obligated(at that point with such a discrepancy) to call

What? Sorry I don't quite understand your analysis, especially the part about the Jiwon going all in with only a 3? can you (or someone) clarify?

I know the 1/10 chance I used earlier of Yellow getting a 2 is simplified:

So correct me if I'm wrong, If you want real numbers, the chance of Yellow himself also getting a 2 will be 3/37:

4 decks of 10 = 40 cards
subtract 3 cards used used (1 on his opponent's head, and 2 on the board)
so that leaves 37 possible cards that he can have

there are four 2's in total (one from each pack of card); but one is on his opponent's head. So from Yellow's point of view, there are only three 2's left that he can get. So the chance of 2's on his own head is 3/37.

Based on seeing Jiwon's 2, every other card besides the 2 will allow Yellow to win. So there is a 34/37 chance to win, and a 3/37 chance to tie, a 0 chance to lose. (considering every card will be higher than a 2, and getting a 1 would make a pair)

These odds are the same for both sides, therefore, under these circumstances, most logical person will all in.

Look at it another way, if Jiwon's strategy was to bet it all on luck every round anyways, then from Yellow's point of view, wouldn't this be his best time to follow (call) as well? He doesn't follow when his opponent has a 2, when should he?

You raise a good point about how often Jinho would expect Jiwon to all in against a non 2 which I agree is probably quite high. While calling Jiwon may have been the correct play expected value wise Jinho had too much exposure to risk which devalues his ability to outplay Jiwon in the long term and to learn his style of play.

To put it into perspective for some others, if you had a 70% chance of doubling your money and a 30% chance of being wiped out would you bet your life savings and family home? I know it's a bit of an exaggeration but within the game it was everything Yellow had. Hell, even in a poker tournament a serious competitor won't always want to go all in first hand on a pair of aces.

Oh you're right, I forgot about the board - yes that's 3/37 - even less likely than 3/39. =D

What you're missing though is that YellOw should never expect Jiwon to go all-in regardless of the cards, because there's no way that he does. Think of it like this - say Jiwon sees yellow has top pair - then how likely do you think he goes all-in? It's 0% (or close), because there's no advantage for him to do it - at best (2 in 37) he will tie, and the rest he loses. So at that point it's only a 3 in 34 chance he has a 2. Next you calculate if Jiwon goes all-in if he sees Jinho has a mid-pair. Again I think it's basically 0%, so that narrows it to 3 in 31. Next a 10, again I think 0 and thus 3 in 27. You keep going (if you assume Jiwon doesn't go all-in seeing except a 3 or 2, which I think he never does), until you're down to the 3 or 2. At that point there's a 3 in 7 chance he has a 2 - a lot more even!

And that's only if you think he would 100% go all-in upon seeing a 3, which I don't. I think it's more like 50/50 that he does, which only makes it 3 in 5 - which makes it 60% likely that he has a 2, so based on chip value remaining after that hand YellOw was not obliged into calling the first hand.


Do you know what I am saying?

Yes, I get what you're trying to say, but that argument will only work if you're assuming there are 0 chances of Jiwon bluffing; which happens often in a game of Poker. And you're reducing the overall percentage by a full amount whenever you say Jiwon won't likely to go all in, which isn't true. For example, you're taking away all the chances of getting the 9 cards, because your argument is that if Jiwon saw a 9 on Yellow's head, he wouldn't likely to go all in (assuming no bluff). But he isn't likely =/= 0; yes if it's a 10 on Yellow, then it's a 0 chance, but a 9 would be like maybe 5-10% chance, but you must still include that (times 4 decks).

But I don't think it's realistic to factor in psychological and bluffing factors when we're talking about pure %, since it can go both ways. Fact of the matter is, Jiwon knew he had no chance to win in a real game, his only strategy is clearly to go all in every round to bet on "luck". Knowing that from yellow's perspective, seeing Jiwon getting a 2 is the best time to Call. If he doesn't, i really don't realistically see a better chance to do so.