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On August 01 2013 16:06 scypio wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 16:02 TheRabidDeer wrote:On August 01 2013 15:39 scypio wrote:On August 01 2013 10:04 DeathProfessor wrote:
I rolled my eyes at the Zerg but hmm maybe they are slightly UP, not really sure where this comes from. I think you did not get the latest zerg memo on the correct way of interpreting race's performance. Here it is, taken from the dreaded Designated Balance Discussion Thread: "Top zerg players competing in premier tournaments outnumber top terran players competing with them 4:1". Now that is a real eyeopener! See, up to this day I looked at results that said: T: 5 tournaments won Z: 5 tournaments won P: 2 tournaments won and thought: "T and Z are doing pretty well and the protoss is trailing behind". Wrong - even when zerg is winning everything there is recently (DH, IEM, Red Bull Batllegrounds, RSL V...). You need to factor in the 4:1 ratio. So: T:5, Z:5, P: 2 = Zerg UP, Terran OP, David Kim heeeelp! T:2 Z:8 P:2 = Balanced Welcome to the zerg world  Erm, if top zerg outnumber top terran in the tournaments then to factor in the 4:1 ratio you would go the other way, no? So itd be more like: T:8 Z:2 P:2? I am not saying I even come close to agreeing with you, but your method seems off. Let's say there are 10 tournaments and the only good players participating in each of them are Soulkey, Hyun, Revival, Jeadong and Polt. I would expect the zergs to take 8 of them and Polt taking 2 max. Otherwise the zerg is UP
I think I see what youre doing, and that seems hilariously wrong.
T:2 Z:8 P:2 is the expected result, but T:5, Z:5, P:2 is the actual result.
The expected result assuming a 4:1 ratio would actually indicate "balance". Technically. There are 4 times as many top zergs, so their odds (feels like the wrong word to use here) are 4 times as high. Though there is a lot of stuff that mixes into it, like protoss and mirror matchups and all kinds of other stuff. The fact that terrans have indeed won as many as zerg is slightly alarming in truth, one would expect more protoss wins.
EDIT: It really is late :\
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On August 01 2013 10:54 mrjpark wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 10:04 DeathProfessor wrote:
I rolled my eyes at the Zerg but hmm maybe they are slightly UP, not really sure where this comes from. It's most likely due to Zergs being able to take maps against Terrans, but not series. I don't honestly remember the last time in the GSL/OSL a Zerg beat a Terran in a best of series where the Terran wasn't completely outmatched. Like Life vs. jjakji, Life will win that every time unless the game is terribly imbalanced. But it's not. I feel like there's just the slightest advantage for Terran right now, and that's all you really need at that level of play.
Hyvaa > Fantasy 2-1 July 11th
KangHo > Maru 2-0 July 18th
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On August 01 2013 15:05 Grovbolle wrote:For reference: TvZ: 51.5% (1394 games) PvT: 50.8% (1326 games) PvZ: 48.5% (1717 games) From http://aligulac.com/reports
At least this contains a decent sample size. I'm no probability expert but around 100 games for a matchup like in the OP does not seem very reliable. Mind you it's games, not matches (at least in the OP, don't know about Aligulac). One guy can have a pretty decent influence if he plays a couple Best-of-X series. If INnoVation destroys a couple weak Zergs 3-0 / 3-1 then in no time he just contributed 10%+ to the TvZ number which will be skewed heavily in Terran's favor. Of course this can also happen the other way around (Zerg defeating inferior Terrans), both of which back up the claim that a low sample size is not stable or representative.
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TvZ is so incredibly in T's favor that I expect the percentage to be even worse next month. But I am surprised about ZvP. All these issues could be resolved by making Hydralisk a decent unit.
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Not looking good for the zergs, not much of an surprise. What is kind of surprising that P does better against zerg than terran. I consider terran to be stronger in that matchup. Might just be the usual variance though.
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United Kingdom20326 Posts
A few players can influence results a lot, confidence intervals(?) are very important for even looking at stats i think
If you say Zerg has a 60% win ratio against terran for example with 100% confidence, it means they'd win 3 out of every 5 games and it would not be possible for them to lose a best of 5, likewise you only need 4/7 (57.14%) to be guaranteed to win a best of 7, and obviously that doesn't happen so unless there's a wild imbalance in overall ratio's, so much is down to individual players, and confidence intervals are pretty much everything
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korean zergs. what happened?
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I think when you talk about tournaments and stuff, you should point out that more people play zerg because as the defensive, late game oriented race, some might say it is "easier" to play. this means more people play zerg, but with the recent buffs to the other races (AKA HOTS) we are having the opposite of the "patchzerg" effect, or zerg winrates going down, even though at the highest level zergs are still preforming well. And as always zergs are winning more because there is more of them. I honestly think that there is at least 40% zerg players if not almost 50%
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well...as expected. even if you mix this winrates with aligulac you see something is very wrong with zerg in 5 months of HOTS now. many many people waited for zerg to finally get fixed in HOTS beta...they fixed T in a huge buff patch, fixed P continuously...zerg got nothing. after realizing that blizz introduced useless hatchtech burrow and ovispeed lol.
they seriously need to take a look at zerg. infestor was overnerfed, hydras just faster...still the 100% same bad unit oncreep, BLs now useless with bigger maps, worse infestors and new ravens/tempests, SHs really bad vs bio, viper blinding cloud bad vs mobile armies (so basically ever P army: stalker or air units or HT, abduct better for colossus, useless vs MMMM). even in ZvZ hydras suck and are only made viable with spores made into a superhardcounter to mutas.
that leaves zerg with roach ling bane muta....every game with obv some exceptions like roach hydra viper AI ZvP or outplaying T in midgame and be able to get ultras + infestors out somehow without losing mutas.
not to mention non-muta compositions arent able to harrass....at all. really hope DK ment ovidrop, nydus and burrow movement with "they take a look into zerg mechanics/stuff".
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On August 01 2013 16:25 dani` wrote:At least this contains a decent sample size. I'm no probability expert but around 100 games for a matchup like in the OP does not seem very reliable. Mind you it's games, not matches (at least in the OP, don't know about Aligulac). One guy can have a pretty decent influence if he plays a couple Best-of-X series. If INnoVation destroys a couple weak Zergs 3-0 / 3-1 then in no time he just contributed 10%+ to the TvZ number which will be skewed heavily in Terran's favor. Of course this can also happen the other way around (Zerg defeating inferior Terrans), both of which back up the claim that a low sample size is not stable or representative.
In Aliguliac
Games = One map in a BoX
Matches = Series, Be it Bo1, Bo3, Bo5 etc.
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On August 01 2013 15:26 blade55555 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 15:08 docvoc wrote:On August 01 2013 15:05 F.O.A.D. wrote:
Everyone knows Z is currently UP. All we can do is wait for Blizz to wake up and make the necessary adjustments. Not according to Aligulac On August 01 2013 15:05 Grovbolle wrote:For reference: TvZ: 51.5% (1394 games) PvT: 50.8% (1326 games) PvZ: 48.5% (1717 games) From http://aligulac.com/reports I'm inclined to believe both, but it's hard for me not to take aligulac as the more trustworthy source. Also, zerg isn't UP, I don't see them using all the assets given to them in HoTS yet at all, a lot of zergs are sticking to WoL strats and the other two races have moved on a lot more. lol shows how much you pay attention to zerg. In zvt, I have tried swarmhosts a lot, and if you go swarmhosts drop play murders you. If you go ling/infestor you get crushed by bio/mine because infestors aren't as good as they used to be. Like you act like we zergs are just sticking to wol strats, no if that were true we would be doing ling/infestor into bl/corr/infestor. No zergs are experimenting and trying other stuff, but non muta play in zvt makes zvt a lot harder. This +99999999999.
You basically need to get mutas out in ZvT unless you're facing a more "traditional" mech (no hellbats, therefore, no medivacs). Otherwise, you just die to drops. Consequently, throwing down a spire and building mutas is almost like pressing the pause button on your build; the tech that you need to finish the game with is delayed.
Incidentally, vs mech is really the only scenario where zerg has the opportunity to depart from the norm, barring all-ins.
ZvT is a horrible MU to play.
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I don't really have anything to contribute to the thread itself, but it's turning out to be a pile of shit anyway! ;P
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I hate zerg...but It scares me when they get stomped this badly at the pro level. Any more buffs for zergies and us mere mortals in diamond and below will keep getting smashed!!
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Rofl I love all the people trying to defend zergs low winrate with "Oh just take out these two matches where zerg gets destroyed and it's fine!" as if that is okay.
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Before more Zerg whining, please look at the July Premier Tournament results:
IEM Shanghai - 1st  Revival
DreamHack Valencia - 1st HyuN, 2nd Jaedong, 3rd Goswser.
Definitely reflected in these graphs.
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On August 01 2013 16:27 ReMinD_ wrote:
TvZ is so incredibly in T's favor that I expect the percentage to be even worse next month. But I am surprised about ZvP. All these issues could be resolved by making Hydralisk a decent unit.
If you take a bigger sample size you will notice how close the numbers are. Sorry, but you are not getting your 70% zvt WOL winrate back. Blizzard will NEVER make the same mistake.
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On August 01 2013 17:50 Snowbear wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 16:27 ReMinD_ wrote:
TvZ is so incredibly in T's favor that I expect the percentage to be even worse next month. But I am surprised about ZvP. All these issues could be resolved by making Hydralisk a decent unit. If you take a bigger sample size you will notice how close the numbers are. Sorry, but you are not getting your 70% zvt WOL winrate back. Blizzard will NEVER make the same mistake.
you are embarrassing yourself with posting lies like zvt was 70% in wol. even last GSL in WoL was 61% while now we have over 70% in OSL for T (both very small sample sizes). just stop posting lies like this, its getting annoying.
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Where can I find the winrates since the release of hots?
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On August 01 2013 17:53 Decendos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 17:50 Snowbear wrote:On August 01 2013 16:27 ReMinD_ wrote:
TvZ is so incredibly in T's favor that I expect the percentage to be even worse next month. But I am surprised about ZvP. All these issues could be resolved by making Hydralisk a decent unit. If you take a bigger sample size you will notice how close the numbers are. Sorry, but you are not getting your 70% zvt WOL winrate back. Blizzard will NEVER make the same mistake. you are embarrassing yourself with posting lies like zvt was 70% in wol. even last GSL in WoL was 61% while now we have over 70% in OSL for T (both very small sample sizes). just stop posting lies like this, its getting annoying.
Stop acting like zvt is t favoured. You just want your 60% winrate back, and it's really not going to happen. Blizzard listened once to people like you (queenbuff) and we all knew what happened.
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On August 01 2013 18:13 Snowbear wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 17:53 Decendos wrote:On August 01 2013 17:50 Snowbear wrote:On August 01 2013 16:27 ReMinD_ wrote:
TvZ is so incredibly in T's favor that I expect the percentage to be even worse next month. But I am surprised about ZvP. All these issues could be resolved by making Hydralisk a decent unit. If you take a bigger sample size you will notice how close the numbers are. Sorry, but you are not getting your 70% zvt WOL winrate back. Blizzard will NEVER make the same mistake. you are embarrassing yourself with posting lies like zvt was 70% in wol. even last GSL in WoL was 61% while now we have over 70% in OSL for T (both very small sample sizes). just stop posting lies like this, its getting annoying. Stop acting like zvt is t favoured. You just want your 60% winrate back, and it's really not going to happen. Blizzard listened once to people like you (queenbuff) and we all knew what happened.
1 post later its 60%? we are getting there. in fact it was 55-58%. but you are getting closer.
and i dont act like ZvT is T favored. it is T favored since 5 months now. thats facts and those arent my facts but aligulac or just liquipedia facts which everybody can look up. i have a feeling you are still so mad at ZvT in the end of WoL (zergs arent mad at beginning of WoL with 60%+ winrates for T with supereasy strats like 2 rax or 5 rax reaper so maybe you should stop being mad too and acknowledge facts). HOTS is a completely new game and yes TvZ is T favored.
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On August 01 2013 18:19 Decendos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2013 18:13 Snowbear wrote:On August 01 2013 17:53 Decendos wrote:On August 01 2013 17:50 Snowbear wrote:On August 01 2013 16:27 ReMinD_ wrote:
TvZ is so incredibly in T's favor that I expect the percentage to be even worse next month. But I am surprised about ZvP. All these issues could be resolved by making Hydralisk a decent unit. If you take a bigger sample size you will notice how close the numbers are. Sorry, but you are not getting your 70% zvt WOL winrate back. Blizzard will NEVER make the same mistake. you are embarrassing yourself with posting lies like zvt was 70% in wol. even last GSL in WoL was 61% while now we have over 70% in OSL for T (both very small sample sizes). just stop posting lies like this, its getting annoying. Stop acting like zvt is t favoured. You just want your 60% winrate back, and it's really not going to happen. Blizzard listened once to people like you (queenbuff) and we all knew what happened. 1 post later its 60%? we are getting there. in fact it was 55-58%. but you are getting closer. and i dont act like ZvT is T favored. it is T favored since 5 months now. thats facts and those arent my facts but aligulac or just liquipedia facts which everybody can look up. i have a feeling you are still so mad at ZvT in the end of WoL (zergs arent mad at beginning of WoL with 60%+ winrates for T with supereasy strats like 2 rax or 5 rax reaper so maybe you should stop being mad too and acknowledge facts). HOTS is a completely new game and yes TvZ is T favored.
I told 70%, then you replied that it was 61%, so I take over what you say --> you complain. TvZ is balanced as hell. The difference with WOL is that you now actually need to put the same effort in the game as the terran. And that hurts, I get that. But to cry that it's terran favoured because you can't 1a anymore, is just ridicilous.
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EPT
