• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 05:34
CEST 11:34
KST 18:34
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy9[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9
Community News
Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple1BSL Season 235Weekly Cups (Sep 7-12): SHIN, ByuN, MaxPax double down1StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon101Weekly Cups (Aug 30-Sep 7): herO thrives amid growing schism10
StarCraft 2
General
Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16) Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool How do you feel about the StarCraft shooter announcement at BlizzCon 2026? The Death of Cheese: From a Professional Cheeser Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple
Tourneys
Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament 2026 GSTL Announcement RSL Revival: Season 6 - Qualifiers and Main Event RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-22
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
Nexus Wars 2021 GUIDE [M] (2) Industrial Park
External Content
Mutation # 544 Double Trouble The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 543 Enhanced Defenses Mutation # 542 The Ascended
Brood War
General
screpdb: new Starcraft reporting tool an AI researcher's take on the ladder bot BW General Discussion Bot on ladder [ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy
Tourneys
[ASL22] Ro8 Day 2 [ASL22] Ro16 Group D [ASL22] Ro8 Day 1 [IPSL] IPSL is Back With Winter 26-27!
Strategy
Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Replay Review Process - What do you do? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation
Other Games
General Games
Diablo IV Nintendo Switch Thread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25! Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Artificial Intelligence Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine All you football fans (soccer)!
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
Gaming Intensity, Problemati…
TrAiDoS
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Regacy Esports:Our Goa…
regacyesports
Dreaming of BW patches (mod…
c3rberUs
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 8231 users

July Winrates! - Page 10

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 8 9 10 11 Next All
SlixSC
Profile Joined October 2012
666 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-08-04 11:34:18
August 04 2013 11:20 GMT
#181
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.


I agree, but Protoss still has the highest win rate. What does that tell us?

And even though so many top korea zergs frequently attend and do well in foreign tournaments, the race as a whole has the worst win rate, almost every month. So even top korea zergs seem unable to balance out the statistics, because foreign zergs do so much worse than foreign Protoss players and to a slightly lesser extent Terran players.
cutler
Profile Joined March 2010
Germany609 Posts
August 04 2013 11:24 GMT
#182
Looks like pretty good balance atm.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-08-04 11:34:33
August 04 2013 11:28 GMT
#183
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.

Edit: sorry, stupid argument, because it's mathematically equal...

So yeah, it's just probably just like that: the more tournaments you take, the closer the stats go to 50:50 regardless of balance. Unless all of the taken tournaments are on "the same skilllevel".
keglu
Profile Joined June 2011
Poland485 Posts
August 04 2013 13:23 GMT
#184
On August 04 2013 20:20 SlixSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.


I agree, but Protoss still has the highest win rate. What does that tell us?

And even though so many top korea zergs frequently attend and do well in foreign tournaments, the race as a whole has the worst win rate, almost every month. So even top korea zergs seem unable to balance out the statistics, because foreign zergs do so much worse than foreign Protoss players and to a slightly lesser extent Terran players.


Im not sure i understand, from my experience foreign scene is where Zerg was historically strongest race.
keglu
Profile Joined June 2011
Poland485 Posts
August 04 2013 13:30 GMT
#185
On August 04 2013 20:28 Big J wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.

Edit: sorry, stupid argument, because it's mathematically equal...

So yeah, it's just probably just like that: the more tournaments you take, the closer the stats go to 50:50 regardless of balance. Unless all of the taken tournaments are on "the same skilllevel".


It's closer to 50% but also more reliable in terms of trends.
For example if you look on oldd TLPD graph:
http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ if you look at korena graph you can't really drwa any conlsuions from it.
Aligulac graph on other hand show trends really well, especially by looking at TvZ historically it really shows how matchup changed in time.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
August 04 2013 14:03 GMT
#186
On August 04 2013 22:30 keglu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 20:28 Big J wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.

Edit: sorry, stupid argument, because it's mathematically equal...

So yeah, it's just probably just like that: the more tournaments you take, the closer the stats go to 50:50 regardless of balance. Unless all of the taken tournaments are on "the same skilllevel".


It's closer to 50% but also more reliable in terms of trends.
For example if you look on oldd TLPD graph:
http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ if you look at korena graph you can't really drwa any conlsuions from it.
Aligulac graph on other hand show trends really well, especially by looking at TvZ historically it really shows how matchup changed in time.

Yeah, but what do trends do for us? In the end we want the raw numbers and want to know whether a matchup is really close to 52:48 (ergo balanced), or if it is 60:40 (ergo imbalanced).
keglu
Profile Joined June 2011
Poland485 Posts
August 04 2013 14:34 GMT
#187
On August 04 2013 23:03 Big J wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 22:30 keglu wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:28 Big J wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.

Edit: sorry, stupid argument, because it's mathematically equal...

So yeah, it's just probably just like that: the more tournaments you take, the closer the stats go to 50:50 regardless of balance. Unless all of the taken tournaments are on "the same skilllevel".


It's closer to 50% but also more reliable in terms of trends.
For example if you look on oldd TLPD graph:
http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ if you look at korena graph you can't really drwa any conlsuions from it.
Aligulac graph on other hand show trends really well, especially by looking at TvZ historically it really shows how matchup changed in time.

Yeah, but what do trends do for us? In the end we want the raw numbers and want to know whether a matchup is really close to 52:48 (ergo balanced), or if it is 60:40 (ergo imbalanced).


You just have to change criteria of balnace. 60% is not realistic for that much data, i consider anything over 55% heavily favoured,(like TvZ early WoL or ZvT late WoL),
RDaneelOlivaw
Profile Joined April 2011
Vatican City State733 Posts
August 04 2013 15:38 GMT
#188
The racial biases in this thread are overwhelming. Clean it up guys, this sort of discussion belongs on the bnet forums.
ChriseC
Profile Joined December 2010
Germany440 Posts
August 04 2013 16:05 GMT
#189
thought its about julyzerg winrates
Noocta
Profile Joined June 2010
France12578 Posts
August 04 2013 16:10 GMT
#190
On August 04 2013 23:34 keglu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 23:03 Big J wrote:
On August 04 2013 22:30 keglu wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:28 Big J wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:25 nkr wrote:
Stop using the word sample size when the data is the whole population that is being examined. It's a census

:/

Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.

Edit: sorry, stupid argument, because it's mathematically equal...

So yeah, it's just probably just like that: the more tournaments you take, the closer the stats go to 50:50 regardless of balance. Unless all of the taken tournaments are on "the same skilllevel".


It's closer to 50% but also more reliable in terms of trends.
For example if you look on oldd TLPD graph:
http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ if you look at korena graph you can't really drwa any conlsuions from it.
Aligulac graph on other hand show trends really well, especially by looking at TvZ historically it really shows how matchup changed in time.

Yeah, but what do trends do for us? In the end we want the raw numbers and want to know whether a matchup is really close to 52:48 (ergo balanced), or if it is 60:40 (ergo imbalanced).


You just have to change criteria of balnace. 60% is not realistic for that much data, i consider anything over 55% heavily favoured,(like TvZ early WoL or ZvT late WoL),


early TvZ and late ZvT were 35/65 dude.
" I'm not gonna fight you. I'm gonna kick your ass ! "
jdsowa
Profile Joined March 2011
405 Posts
August 04 2013 16:32 GMT
#191
The reason why Z is so low is because people are inexplicably using hydras when they're basically still just as bad as they were in WoL. It'll always be a trash unit as long as it has 80 hp.
keglu
Profile Joined June 2011
Poland485 Posts
August 04 2013 16:42 GMT
#192
On August 05 2013 01:10 Noocta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2013 23:34 keglu wrote:
On August 04 2013 23:03 Big J wrote:
On August 04 2013 22:30 keglu wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:28 Big J wrote:
On August 04 2013 20:12 Liquid`Ret wrote:
On August 04 2013 19:59 Big J wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:25 keglu wrote:
On August 03 2013 22:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On August 03 2013 19:33 dani` wrote:
[quote]
Considering Aligulac has between 1300 and 1700 games in July per matchup, it appears to me data in the OP is fact a sample of all available tournament games since it has only 400-500 games per matchup (Korea + international).

OP contains:
All Premier Tournaments
All Major Tournaments
All Direct Qualifiers to Premier Tournaments (this does not include Qualifiers for Qualifiers *only incl. later stages)
All Premier Teamleagues (GSTL, ATC and PL)
All Monthly Finals (Go4SC2 and Zotac Top 16, no weekly tournaments)

Was listed in the reddit thread.


Thats still 1/3 of games so clearly not whole population
Also WCG is listed as premier tournament, i dont see qualifiers to WCG listed.


well, aligulac contains all sorts of small tournaments, which screws with balance. As in those tournaments there are very many "Pro vs NonPro" or even just "Master vs Platinum" situations, in which the latter player will lose 99% of the time, regardless of balance.

An example what these kind of things do:
matchup: AvB is 60:40 balanced with 1000 games in which the players are evenly matched.
Then there are 500games in which the winrates are 99% for and 500games in which the winrates are 1% for A.
winrate of race A is therefore shown as (60*1000+99*500+1*500)/2000 = 55% instead of the true 60% balance.

That's why stats with "lesser tournaments" will always be close to 50:50. As games in which one player is "outmatched" exist for both races and therefore the balance of those games is 50:50, the stats always tend to be closer to 50:50 as they should be from "Pro vs Pro" stats alone.
Of course it remains to find out how big this influence really is.

At least that's one approach to explain why aligulac (and other big statistics) never really has any outliers.


the same can be said for foreign tournaments, where players like Hyun Jaedong Taeja Leenock dominate everyone else, and it seems more rare for a lot of the top korean protoss to attend.

Edit: sorry, stupid argument, because it's mathematically equal...

So yeah, it's just probably just like that: the more tournaments you take, the closer the stats go to 50:50 regardless of balance. Unless all of the taken tournaments are on "the same skilllevel".


It's closer to 50% but also more reliable in terms of trends.
For example if you look on oldd TLPD graph:
http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ if you look at korena graph you can't really drwa any conlsuions from it.
Aligulac graph on other hand show trends really well, especially by looking at TvZ historically it really shows how matchup changed in time.

Yeah, but what do trends do for us? In the end we want the raw numbers and want to know whether a matchup is really close to 52:48 (ergo balanced), or if it is 60:40 (ergo imbalanced).


You just have to change criteria of balnace. 60% is not realistic for that much data, i consider anything over 55% heavily favoured,(like TvZ early WoL or ZvT late WoL),


early TvZ and late ZvT were 35/65 dude.


TvZ based on 50-300 games per matchup monthly in first few months. Past that when number of games became bigger no matchup was at ever 60%.
Maasked
Profile Joined December 2011
United States567 Posts
August 04 2013 16:46 GMT
#193
I really want to see a Ladder winrate vs tournament winrate comparison.
I feel like PvZ on ladder favors Z where in tourneys favors P.
But I guess it would be blizzards problem to release that info
TwitchTV as Maaasked I stream hots (rarely)
TheBarcid
Profile Joined December 2012
Canada44 Posts
August 04 2013 16:51 GMT
#194
Hmm... I dig the look of the international statistics. I wouldn't worry too much about the zergs being destroyed in the korean statistics. Not only is it a small sample size, it is taken from the very best of the best players over a very short period. That kind of sample selection is only going to show which race is dominating the meta-game right now, and we don't get a chance to see the pendulum swing the other way.

I'm not going to worry until we get about 3 months in a row of zergs getting abused in korea. And I play z.
Zheryn
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden3653 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-08-04 17:08:03
August 04 2013 17:07 GMT
#195
On August 01 2013 17:48 Elite_ wrote:
Before more Zerg whining, please look at the July Premier Tournament results:

IEM Shanghai - 1st Revival

DreamHack Valencia - 1st HyuN, 2nd Jaedong, 3rd Goswser.

Definitely reflected in these graphs.


It's so annoying when people bring up tournament finalists as a reliable statistic. Ofc more zergs will win tournaments, since there are more zerg players. Also, tournament winners is a pretty bad statistic overall since the sample size is so incredible low, and it doesn't factor in tournament participants, structure, or how any of the other games during the tournament played out.
hundred thousand krouner
c0sm0naut
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1229 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-08-04 17:10:53
August 04 2013 17:07 GMT
#196
The hardest thing about interpreting statistics like this is that it doesn't tell the whole story. Savior had success in broodwar zvt when pretty much no one else was winning and terran seemed extreme imba. If you are a zerg or random player, the ZvT matchup FEELS imbalanced/too easy for Terran. I will be honest that my zerg is not my most skilled race and that Terran is my best, but it's more than just that, it takes zero skill to plant mines, stim and split vs banes which is pretty much 90% of the matchup right now.

In a way, the matchup is imba becuase Z can't even tech to hive safely vs a strong terran before 4 bases but once Z does secure 4 base and can go hive while defending with mutas, zerglings, banelings, the ultralisk switch afterwards feels just as imbalanced. The matchup is currently balanced for the highest levels of play, which means zergs like me who die to any amount of drops + frontal mine pushes are going to get mad as fuck every single game we play in the matchup. Seriously, it might not be imba but mines are a shitty fucking unit to play against and i wish that they were like in bw where they go away after shooting.. even if we gave them to free with hellions, then that's much better. but the way mines are currently designed is breaking the game at a casual level and forcing specific styles at a pro level. I think it's time to address the widow mine with balance changes, i play as R at about 1k masters and have played Terran since wings of liberty.
keglu
Profile Joined June 2011
Poland485 Posts
August 04 2013 17:10 GMT
#197
On August 05 2013 02:07 c0sm0naut wrote:
The hardest thing about interpreting statistics like this is that it doesn't tell the whole story. If you are a zerg or random player, the ZvT matchup FEELS imbalanced/too easy for Terran. I will be honest that my zerg is not my most skilled race and that Terran is my best, but it's more than just that, it takes zero skill to plant mines, stim and split vs banes which is pretty much 90% of the matchup right now.

In a way, the matchup is imba becuase Z can't even tech to hive safely vs a strong terran before 4 bases but once Z does secure 4 base and can go hive while defending with mutas, zerglings, banelings, the ultralisk switch afterwards feels just as imbalanced. The matchup is currently balanced for the highest levels of play, which means zergs like me who die to any amount of drops + frontal mine pushes are going to get mad as fuck every single game we play in the matchup. Seriously, it might not be imba but mines are a shitty fucking unit to play against and i wish that they were like in bw where they go away after shooting.. even if we gave them to free with hellions, then that's much better. but the way mines are currently designed is breaking the game at a casual level and forcing specific styles at a pro level. I think it's time to address the widow mine with balance changes, i play as R at about 1k masters and have played Terran since wings of liberty.


Did i read it correctly that it takes zero skill to split vs banes?
c0sm0naut
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1229 Posts
August 04 2013 17:12 GMT
#198
On August 05 2013 02:10 keglu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2013 02:07 c0sm0naut wrote:
The hardest thing about interpreting statistics like this is that it doesn't tell the whole story. If you are a zerg or random player, the ZvT matchup FEELS imbalanced/too easy for Terran. I will be honest that my zerg is not my most skilled race and that Terran is my best, but it's more than just that, it takes zero skill to plant mines, stim and split vs banes which is pretty much 90% of the matchup right now.

In a way, the matchup is imba becuase Z can't even tech to hive safely vs a strong terran before 4 bases but once Z does secure 4 base and can go hive while defending with mutas, zerglings, banelings, the ultralisk switch afterwards feels just as imbalanced. The matchup is currently balanced for the highest levels of play, which means zergs like me who die to any amount of drops + frontal mine pushes are going to get mad as fuck every single game we play in the matchup. Seriously, it might not be imba but mines are a shitty fucking unit to play against and i wish that they were like in bw where they go away after shooting.. even if we gave them to free with hellions, then that's much better. but the way mines are currently designed is breaking the game at a casual level and forcing specific styles at a pro level. I think it's time to address the widow mine with balance changes, i play as R at about 1k masters and have played Terran since wings of liberty.


Did i read it correctly that it takes zero skill to split vs banes?


yes, ive been playing terran since launch of wol and random since launch of hots, stimming and clicking the patrol key away from banelings does not take much skill. maybe zero is the wrong word, but when plat level micro is the crux of terran play in the matchup we have a problem
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
August 04 2013 17:12 GMT
#199
On August 05 2013 02:10 keglu wrote:
Did i read it correctly that it takes zero skill to split vs banes?

Didn't you know that all Terrans were suddenly granted Automaton 2000 micro in HotS?
Facultyadjutant
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Sweden1876 Posts
August 04 2013 17:12 GMT
#200
As protoss suffers the most by being figured out I am more than okay having protoss a bit favored as they will probably go down in winrates soon as their new timings and plays get figured out
#1 FAN OF TERRY THE INTERN - NONY AND IDRA NUMBER #1, EVERY DAY. AXIOM MANOR - Axiom: Ryung, Alicia, Heart and Crank under the Don TotalBiscuit and the Donnesa Genna Bain- Join the family http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396090#2
Prev 1 8 9 10 11 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 1h 27m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
ProTech155
Has 68
Lowko63
StarCraft: Brood War
Shuttle 2465
Britney 2193
firebathero 888
BeSt 356
Leta 291
Stork 239
sorry 80
PianO 53
Shinee 39
Sharp 33
[ Show more ]
Bale 31
hero 23
Hm[arnc] 21
Terrorterran 18
zelot 18
Aegong 16
HiyA 15
Shine 14
ajuk12(nOOB) 13
Light 0
Dota 2
Gorgc4078
League of Legends
Reynor99
Other Games
olofmeister1219
ceh9571
Happy407
JimRising 403
crisheroes181
Livibee139
Maynarde113
Mew2King82
Pyrionflax74
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream11486
Other Games
gamesdonequick507
StarCraft: Brood War
Afreeca ASL 348
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH168
• StrangeGG 33
• mYiSmile127
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• lizZardDota268
Upcoming Events
Kung Fu Cup
1h 27m
The PondCast
1d
Replay Cast
1d 14h
Korean StarCraft League
2 days
CranKy Ducklings
3 days
GSL
3 days
Yamato Cup
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Afreeca Starleague
5 days
Soma vs Jaedong
WardiTV Weekly
5 days
[ Show More ]
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
Afreeca Starleague
6 days
Leta vs Soulkey
PiGosaur Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Super Anchor Qualifying S3
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - GSA
Calamity Invitational
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSB
Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Custodian Cup
Copium Cup
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.