EPT[Aligulac June 26 list] A sprinkle of Stardust - Page 2
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emanresU
Germany393 Posts
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Grovbolle
Denmark3813 Posts
On June 27 2013 20:22 emanresU wrote: Snute over scarlett? I don't know. Less than 10 points difference. Which means you can't say for certain that one player is better than the other. | ||
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iMrising
United States1099 Posts
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shadymmj
1906 Posts
life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change ?????? | ||
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a3den
704 Posts
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change ?????? It's just science man. Deal with it 8) | ||
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MasterOfPuppets
Romania6942 Posts
On June 27 2013 20:22 emanresU wrote: Snute over scarlett? I don't know. The Acer Teamstory Cup sold me on it.  On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change ?????? Losing to a player rated much lower is far more impactful than beating a player rated much lower than you. For better or for worse, a fair amount of ProLeague players have rather low ratings, meanwhile FlaSh and Bogus are both Top 5 players... of course "dropping a game here and there" means much more than beating players that for all intents and purposes are rated as far inferior. Also, as the post above says, this is algorithm-based, not a power rank. If you think you can come up with a better skill rating algorithm that also can also facilitate predicting the outcome of matches with reasonable accuracy, then by all means knock yourself out. | ||
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change This is the least subtle selective argument I've seen in a good while, but I'll bite. Life went 28-9. His being beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL constitutes a puny five of those games (1-4), in the remaining 32 he went 27-5. In fact, one can assume it's only due to his ridiculous rating that he lost any points at all. Flash and Innovation are interesting. They both went 2-0 in OSL, but 2-2 in Proleague, so a 4-2 score overall. This 66% winrate corresponds to about a 400 point rating gap. So if you go 66% in a period, your rating will adjust towards the mean of your opponents + 400. As it happens, Flash faced opposition at 1475, so he performed at about 1875 in this period. Since his rating is 1879, that's a miniscule change. On the other hand, Innovation faced slightly worse opposition, at 1341, so he only performed at 1741 level. On the other hand, his rating was higher than Flash's, at 2010, so yes, he will lose points. In short, Innovation performed equally as well as Flash did against worse opposition and with higher expectations. So yeah, of course he will lose more. | ||
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shadymmj
1906 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:20 TheBB wrote: This is the least subtle selective argument I've seen in a good while, but I'll bite. Life went 28-9. His being beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL constitutes a puny five of those games (1-4), in the remaining 32 he went 27-5. In fact, one can assume it's only due to his ridiculous rating that he lost any points at all. Flash and Innovation are interesting. They both went 2-0 in OSL, but 2-2 in Proleague, so a 4-2 score overall. This 66% winrate corresponds to about a 400 point rating gap. So if you go 66% in a period, your rating will adjust towards the mean of your opponents + 400. As it happens, Flash faced opposition at 1475, so he performed at about 1875 in this period. Since his rating is 1879, that's a miniscule change. On the other hand, Innovation faced slightly worse opposition, at 1341, so he only performed at 1741 level. On the other hand, his rating was higher than Flash's, at 2010, so yes, he will lose points. In short, Innovation performed equally as well as Flash did against worse opposition and with higher expectations. So yeah, of course he will lose more. but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter? edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison. | ||
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MasterOfPuppets
Romania6942 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:30 shadymmj wrote: but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter? Well, one is affected by emotion, subjective perception of player strength and cherry picking results. The other is not. Easy call. | ||
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:30 shadymmj wrote: but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter? edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison. He did play foreigners, and his opponents also have a lower mean rating than those of Flash and Bogus. We can argue until the cows come home if it's as low as it should be. In fact, it's not, but it's easily closer now than it was before I made the last update, so this sentiment of yours seems to me a little late. I'm not particularly concerned with the general sentiment. It has its own staggering problems (such as overevaluating a certain Life vs Sjow series). By claiming ToD at 1400 and Innovation at 10000 you are effectively saying that that ToD has to play 5948649 games against Innovation (yeah that's almost six million) before he has a legitimate chance of winning only one of them. This seems extremely out of proportion, and is a good example of why I don't put much stock in people's general opinions when they try to quantify things. By my personal estimate the mean Korean should be rated about 400-500 points higher than the mean foreigner. Right now this number is at about 250 or so, so you're off by about 7750 I think. | ||
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EFermi
United States165 Posts
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Neemi
Netherlands656 Posts
On June 28 2013 02:00 TheBB wrote: He did play foreigners, and his opponents also have a lower mean rating than those of Flash and Bogus. We can argue until the cows come home if it's as low as it should be. In fact, it's not, but it's easily closer now than it was before I made the last update, so this sentiment of yours seems to me a little late. I'm not particularly concerned with the general sentiment. It has its own staggering problems (such as overevaluating a certain Life vs Sjow series). By claiming ToD at 1400 and Innovation at 10000 you are effectively saying that that ToD has to play 5948649 games against Innovation (yeah that's almost six million) before he has a legitimate chance of winning only one of them. This seems extremely out of proportion, and is a good example of why I don't put much stock in people's general opinions when they try to quantify things. By my personal estimate the mean Korean should be rated about 400-500 points higher than the mean foreigner. Right now this number is at about 250 or so, so you're off by about 7750 I think. I love how you actually back up your arguments with numbers and for putting so much time into all of this. Much appreciated. | ||
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a3den
704 Posts
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Zealously
East Gorteau22261 Posts
On June 28 2013 01:30 shadymmj wrote: but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter? edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison. Do you understand the math behind Aligulac's ratings? It certainly seems like you don't, which also means you shouldn't make comments like that. | ||
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On June 29 2013 22:03 a3den wrote: Dear aligulac nerd ballers, got a 500: Internal Server Error when I try to access the ranking. Ah, sorry about that. It's good now. | ||
VyingsP
France174 Posts
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Silvanel
Poland4753 Posts
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On June 29 2013 22:29 VyingsP wrote: Just wondering : isn't this a bug ? Not a bug as such, just an effect of too high sensitivity in the starting phases. I'll fix it shortly. | ||
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VyingsP
France174 Posts
On June 29 2013 22:52 TheBB wrote: Not a bug as such, just an effect of too high sensitivity in the starting phases. I'll fix it shortly. Thanks for the answer ! Keep up with the good work, aligulac is awesome. | ||
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p14c
Vatican City State431 Posts
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