We have a FAQ here. FAQ means Frequently Asked Questions. Odds are your Question is Frequently Asked. Visit us aligulac.com
This week I will bring you the write-up, courtesy of TheBB being busy with that PhD of his me wanting them TL+ gifts. (Actually TheBB probably deserves them more since my first TL+ post got me banned).
The last 2 weeks have been quite busy for our team, having lots of matches, tournaments and a few tweaks that went live with last weeks list, but before I bring on the lists, I think we need to look at this: + Show Spoiler [A sprinkle of Stardust] +
Pretty impressive results from the mYinsanity player and new Dreamhack champion.
Now before we get into this, remember that a difference of around 250 or less means that there is no statistically significant difference between two players, but who am I kidding, you just want to rage and yell at our stats, so here we go.
INnoVation, "the greatest RTS player of all time", enjoys another period at 1st place, with the kid-prodigy Life being banished to 2nd place three periods in a row now. The rest of the list is a who's who of great players with solid performances in Proleague, WCS, Dreamhack, Homestory Cup and so on. Most notable absentees are Soulkey and Rain, however both being only 2 points behind LucifroN and ForGG, I think we could probably in our heads switch the 4 around and this list would be a decent representation of the best the world (Korea) has to offer right now.
Honorable mentions: Bunny, Kas, Nerchio, Welmu, Mana, HasuObs
The foreigner list this period includes the cream of the crop Europe has to offer, as well as the great Taiwanese Sen, the Canadian femme fatale Scarlett and the mighty Jim from China. Sen being the biggest "outlier" playing mainly in the closed enviroment of Taiwan and losing a few points here and there in WCS America. Some great performances at Dreamhack and HSC have meant lots of points for 3 of the 4 great EU zergs Snute, Stephano and TLO. However, noone is yet close to pushing LucifroN off the throne as our highest ranked foreigner.
On June 13 2013 08:26 idkfa wrote: As cool as Aligulac is, I feel that any thread heralding its improvements is incomplete without some reference to a cool graph, which (to my mind) is integral to the Aligulac experience.
The graph above, and many other cool similar ones can be generated here!. Special thanks to Arzar who suggested this in this post and who has helped us develop this new feature. And before anyone points it out, no trust is not top 5 protoss of all time.
Shoutouts this week to Arzar who has joined the effort and helped us create the new history feature. Hopefully he will continue to work with us and bring our users more cool tools and graphs. Shoutout to Nydra from Gosugamers and his great piece on INnoVation. Shoutout to our trio of especially hardworking match-adders consisting of kiekaboe, MasterOfPuppets and Shellshock. (More than 2K for this period, most of them added by one of these three). Finally a shoutout to TLO for his great performance the last two weeks, pushing him higher in the ranking than ever before, and because he is such a nice guy who interacts a lot with me on Twitter :D
If you want to get in contact with us or have suggestion feel free to use:
That graph is really cool! Also the words are nice I guess.
EDIT: Also pretty interesting to me that Life only fell 16 points. I would say that most of us would say his perceived strength fell much more than that after falling out of Dreamhack and OSL before he should've. But I guess stats and public perception can often be unaligned with one another.
Sweet update! Thanks guys! I am in the process of moving this week and next, so I have not been able to log in and do much data entry lately. I am still here though and planning on being back soon!
On June 27 2013 07:57 TheAmazombie wrote: Sweet update! Thanks guys! I am in the process of moving this week and next, so I have not been able to log in and do much data entry lately. I am still here though and planning on being back soon!
You are doing the job nobody wants to do, so whatever pace you are doing it in, will be faster than what it would have been without you.
May I ask what is the algorithm that decides who deserves to be ranked in the top 5?
As you said, trust is obviously an outlier for the top protoss player. And, I personally feel that Nestea should be in the top 5 zerg (very long dominance, 1800 points for a full year).
But the algorithm doesn't "know" that. So, if you could share your algorithm, that would be cool =)
On June 27 2013 08:18 fezvez wrote: May I ask what is the algorithm that decides who deserves to be ranked in the top 5?
As you said, trust is obviously an outlier for the top protoss player. And, I personally feel that Nestea should be in the top 5 zerg (very long dominance, 1800 points for a full year).
But the algorithm doesn't "know" that. So, if you could share your algorithm, that would be cool =)
I'm pretty sure it's just the 5 highest peaks achieved
On June 27 2013 07:43 Darthsanta13 wrote: Also pretty interesting to me that Life only fell 16 points. I would say that most of us would say his perceived strength fell much more than that after falling out of Dreamhack and OSL before he should've. But I guess stats and public perception can often be unaligned with one another.
On June 27 2013 08:18 fezvez wrote: May I ask what is the algorithm that decides who deserves to be ranked in the top 5?
As you said, trust is obviously an outlier for the top protoss player. And, I personally feel that Nestea should be in the top 5 zerg (very long dominance, 1800 points for a full year).
But the algorithm doesn't "know" that. So, if you could share your algorithm, that would be cool =)
I'm pretty sure it's just the 5 highest peaks achieved
On June 27 2013 07:43 Darthsanta13 wrote: That graph is really cool! Also the words are nice I guess.
EDIT: Also pretty interesting to me that Life only fell 16 points. I would say that most of us would say his perceived strength fell much more than that after falling out of Dreamhack and OSL before he should've. But I guess stats and public perception can often be unaligned with one another.
your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
On June 27 2013 20:22 emanresU wrote: Snute over scarlett? I don't know.
The Acer Teamstory Cup sold me on it.
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
??????
Losing to a player rated much lower is far more impactful than beating a player rated much lower than you. For better or for worse, a fair amount of ProLeague players have rather low ratings, meanwhile FlaSh and Bogus are both Top 5 players... of course "dropping a game here and there" means much more than beating players that for all intents and purposes are rated as far inferior.
Also, as the post above says, this is algorithm-based, not a power rank. If you think you can come up with a better skill rating algorithm that also can also facilitate predicting the outcome of matches with reasonable accuracy, then by all means knock yourself out.
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
This is the least subtle selective argument I've seen in a good while, but I'll bite.
Life went 28-9. His being beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL constitutes a puny five of those games (1-4), in the remaining 32 he went 27-5. In fact, one can assume it's only due to his ridiculous rating that he lost any points at all.
Flash and Innovation are interesting. They both went 2-0 in OSL, but 2-2 in Proleague, so a 4-2 score overall. This 66% winrate corresponds to about a 400 point rating gap. So if you go 66% in a period, your rating will adjust towards the mean of your opponents + 400. As it happens, Flash faced opposition at 1475, so he performed at about 1875 in this period. Since his rating is 1879, that's a miniscule change. On the other hand, Innovation faced slightly worse opposition, at 1341, so he only performed at 1741 level. On the other hand, his rating was higher than Flash's, at 2010, so yes, he will lose points.
In short, Innovation performed equally as well as Flash did against worse opposition and with higher expectations. So yeah, of course he will lose more.
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
This is the least subtle selective argument I've seen in a good while, but I'll bite.
Life went 28-9. His being beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL constitutes a puny five of those games (1-4), in the remaining 32 he went 27-5. In fact, one can assume it's only due to his ridiculous rating that he lost any points at all.
Flash and Innovation are interesting. They both went 2-0 in OSL, but 2-2 in Proleague, so a 4-2 score overall. This 66% winrate corresponds to about a 400 point rating gap. So if you go 66% in a period, your rating will adjust towards the mean of your opponents + 400. As it happens, Flash faced opposition at 1475, so he performed at about 1875 in this period. Since his rating is 1879, that's a miniscule change. On the other hand, Innovation faced slightly worse opposition, at 1341, so he only performed at 1741 level. On the other hand, his rating was higher than Flash's, at 2010, so yes, he will lose points.
In short, Innovation performed equally as well as Flash did against worse opposition and with higher expectations. So yeah, of course he will lose more.
but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling
idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter?
edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison.
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
This is the least subtle selective argument I've seen in a good while, but I'll bite.
Life went 28-9. His being beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL constitutes a puny five of those games (1-4), in the remaining 32 he went 27-5. In fact, one can assume it's only due to his ridiculous rating that he lost any points at all.
Flash and Innovation are interesting. They both went 2-0 in OSL, but 2-2 in Proleague, so a 4-2 score overall. This 66% winrate corresponds to about a 400 point rating gap. So if you go 66% in a period, your rating will adjust towards the mean of your opponents + 400. As it happens, Flash faced opposition at 1475, so he performed at about 1875 in this period. Since his rating is 1879, that's a miniscule change. On the other hand, Innovation faced slightly worse opposition, at 1341, so he only performed at 1741 level. On the other hand, his rating was higher than Flash's, at 2010, so yes, he will lose points.
In short, Innovation performed equally as well as Flash did against worse opposition and with higher expectations. So yeah, of course he will lose more.
but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling
idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter?
Well, one is affected by emotion, subjective perception of player strength and cherry picking results. The other is not. Easy call.
On June 28 2013 01:30 shadymmj wrote: but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling
idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter?
edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison.
He did play foreigners, and his opponents also have a lower mean rating than those of Flash and Bogus. We can argue until the cows come home if it's as low as it should be. In fact, it's not, but it's easily closer now than it was before I made the last update, so this sentiment of yours seems to me a little late.
I'm not particularly concerned with the general sentiment. It has its own staggering problems (such as overevaluating a certain Life vs Sjow series).
By claiming ToD at 1400 and Innovation at 10000 you are effectively saying that that ToD has to play 5948649 games against Innovation (yeah that's almost six million) before he has a legitimate chance of winning only one of them. This seems extremely out of proportion, and is a good example of why I don't put much stock in people's general opinions when they try to quantify things.
By my personal estimate the mean Korean should be rated about 400-500 points higher than the mean foreigner. Right now this number is at about 250 or so, so you're off by about 7750 I think.
This looks neat but I can't agree with the rankings. None of the foreigners should be anywhere near, not the top 10 list, the top 30 or even 50 list. Koreans who left WCS Kr should also be relatively low on the list.
On June 28 2013 01:30 shadymmj wrote: but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling
idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter?
edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison.
He did play foreigners, and his opponents also have a lower mean rating than those of Flash and Bogus. We can argue until the cows come home if it's as low as it should be. In fact, it's not, but it's easily closer now than it was before I made the last update, so this sentiment of yours seems to me a little late.
I'm not particularly concerned with the general sentiment. It has its own staggering problems (such as overevaluating a certain Life vs Sjow series).
By claiming ToD at 1400 and Innovation at 10000 you are effectively saying that that ToD has to play 5948649 games against Innovation (yeah that's almost six million) before he has a legitimate chance of winning only one of them. This seems extremely out of proportion, and is a good example of why I don't put much stock in people's general opinions when they try to quantify things.
By my personal estimate the mean Korean should be rated about 400-500 points higher than the mean foreigner. Right now this number is at about 250 or so, so you're off by about 7750 I think.
I love how you actually back up your arguments with numbers and for putting so much time into all of this. Much appreciated.
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
This is the least subtle selective argument I've seen in a good while, but I'll bite.
Life went 28-9. His being beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL constitutes a puny five of those games (1-4), in the remaining 32 he went 27-5. In fact, one can assume it's only due to his ridiculous rating that he lost any points at all.
Flash and Innovation are interesting. They both went 2-0 in OSL, but 2-2 in Proleague, so a 4-2 score overall. This 66% winrate corresponds to about a 400 point rating gap. So if you go 66% in a period, your rating will adjust towards the mean of your opponents + 400. As it happens, Flash faced opposition at 1475, so he performed at about 1875 in this period. Since his rating is 1879, that's a miniscule change. On the other hand, Innovation faced slightly worse opposition, at 1341, so he only performed at 1741 level. On the other hand, his rating was higher than Flash's, at 2010, so yes, he will lose points.
In short, Innovation performed equally as well as Flash did against worse opposition and with higher expectations. So yeah, of course he will lose more.
but life played foreigners...the equivalent of beating a cripple at wrestling
idk about you, but there is almost universal agreement here that life is spiraling downwards, while bogus remains firmly at #1, and flash is only getting better. your statistics do not correlate with the general sentiment. which is a misrepresentation, the former or the latter?
edit: i see your problem. you somehow rank players like tod and pig at 1300-1400, while the top koreans at 1900. imo if tod were a "1400" then bogus, SK etc. would be something like a "10000" in comparison.
Do you understand the math behind Aligulac's ratings? It certainly seems like you don't, which also means you shouldn't make comments like that.
Something is really wrong with the ratings..You can't have top 10 foreigners. It's just weird. Besides MVP the other players qualified from WCS EU and AM got stomped in the WCS finals. And even MVP in the 3rd place its quite high. Maybe in time the ratings will normalize but aligulac should have give Code S players much better rattings then the ones from EU or AM. Also the Dreamhack guys won too many points. There were almost no code S players at Dreamhack.
On June 28 2013 00:31 shadymmj wrote: your list is absurd, bogus drops a game here and there in proleague but cleans house in OSL = -14 life gets beaten by a foreigner and thrown out of OSL = -16 flash 2-0 OSL = no change
??????
Rofl there's always one, and that sig really rounds it out.
On June 29 2013 23:11 p14c wrote: Something is really wrong with the ratings..You can't have top 10 foreigners. It's just weird. Besides MVP the other players qualified from WCS EU and AM got stomped in the WCS finals. And even MVP in the 3rd place its quite high. Maybe in time the ratings will normalize but aligulac should have give Code S players much better rattings then the ones from EU or AM. Also the Dreamhack guys won too many points. There were almost no code S players at Dreamhack.
On June 29 2013 23:11 p14c wrote: Something is really wrong with the ratings..You can't have top 10 foreigners. It's just weird.
Why not? This comment is just weird...
On June 29 2013 23:11 p14c wrote: Besides MVP the other players qualified from WCS EU and AM got stomped in the WCS finals..
Ok, so? They weren't expected to win. The people who beat them therefore didn't gain much and they didn't lose much. You don't seem to actually have a particular point here to be honest.
On June 29 2013 23:11 p14c wrote: Maybe in time the ratings will normalize but aligulac should have give Code S players much better rattings then the ones from EU or AM .
They DO have better ratings, what do you mean?? They have also been given a 250 point korean bonus.
On June 29 2013 23:11 p14c wrote: Also the Dreamhack guys won too many points. There were almost no code S players at Dreamhack.
It doesn't matter which competition the game is played in. It only matters a players rating vs his opponents.
It seems like you don't have the faintest idea about how the system works and haven't bothered with trying to find out before you input your opinion. We can also infer that you do not know how ratings systems in general like Elo rating system work. An uninformed opinion is just useless. Please become familiar with what is going on before commenting on future.
"Now before we get into this, remember that a difference of around 250 or less means that there is no statistically significant difference between two players, but who am I kidding, you just want to rage and yell at our stats, so here we go. " no significantly statistical difference? how would this list have eto work for there to be no significant different between 1500 and 1750? but who am i kidding, it seems to me your statement is made just so it will just give you a huge margin of error.
"I think we could probably in our heads switch the 4 around and this list would be a decent representation of the best the world (Korea) has to offer right now. " yeah that would make the list reliable
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/OGC4gRp.png?1)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/6Y6SDcO.png?1)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/MrTLcy0.png?1)
INnoVation 1996 (-14: Proleague, WCS KR)
Life 1939 (-16: WCS KR, Dreamhack, GSTL, RSL)
sOs 1854 (+1: Proleague, WCS KR)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ge5jndt.png?1)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/wO3rUQ0.png?1)
