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On December 02 2012 09:32 OrbitalPlane wrote:OP should delete the misleading stats. This guy is right: Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 07:20 corpuscle wrote:
You don't include mirrors because it makes the numbers misleading. Whichever race plays the most mirrors (in this case, Zerg) is going to have their number somewhat arbitrarily skewed towards 50%.
If, let's say, Zerg was 15-5 vT, 15-5 vP, and 30-30 vZ, they'd have a 60% overall winrate, which doesn't sound awful, but covers up the fact that they're actually winning 75% of the time in non-mirrors.
Technically, what I was talking about isn't how the OP calculated the "overall" stat anyway, I kind of gave him too much credit. He did "number of games won by X race" divided by "number of games played overall" which is just a weird way to do it because it factors in games that the race being discussed wasn't even in... that's why the T and P "overall" scores are so abysmally low even though their actual winrates were much higher.
edit:
It would be nice to see the amount of games played next to each stat.
Yeah, have to echo this. OP, if you still have the raw numbers you used, that'd be really helpful, since we can calculate actual winrates and stuff.
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This thread is perhaps the most manipulative use of stats in SC2 I've seen.
Get this shit out of here
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Thanks for all positive and negative feedback! Got rid of Overall and added matches played under WB and LB.
On December 02 2012 09:45 ktimekiller wrote:
This thread is perhaps the most manipulative use of stats in SC2 I've seen.
Get this shit out of here
All I did was to calculate actual values, sorry if thats manipulative for you.
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are there nov win rates out?
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This thread is really great.
Thanks for combing through all of the data and contributing something so useful.
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Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done.
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I really feel TvZ need help.
Like big help.. something comparable to what queen buff did for zerg earlygame but for terran lategame. :/
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I never trust statistics with that many smiley faces in it
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On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done.
Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me.
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On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done. Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me.
So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose?
How is that balance?
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On December 02 2012 10:36 zEnVy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done. Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me. So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose? How is that balance?
That's how BW was balanced.
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On December 02 2012 10:36 zEnVy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done. Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me. So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose? How is that balance?
I see more 50/50 games on huge maps with a lot of expansion which can be dropped than on small maps where zerg reinforcements comes too fast for terran to hold pushes
Because on huge maps :
- Terran can harass
- Terran and zerg can macro up
- Zerg broodlords comes but the map is huge, and terran has time to prepare
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On December 02 2012 07:47 Assirra wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 07:45 SupLilSon wrote:On December 02 2012 07:28 Assirra wrote:
Great, another balance whining thread.
Clearly we didn't have enough of those... 70% ZvT is pretty fucking alarming. How long are we gonna watch ZvZ finals and completely 1 sided rapes until you give up trying to dispel the truth lol? Sigh, i wish people would fucking read for once. I NEVER said the game was balanced so please stop trying to make up i did. I know the game is imbalanced atm but i am just so tired of reading it over and over and over and over.
you realize you clicked this thread without being forced too. we are discussing win% and there is only 1 reason to do this, to study the balance/imbalance, if everything was always 50% no theads would be made about it. Its like you walk into a bar and saying your so tired of seeing drunk people. your a fuckin tool
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Northern Ireland27445 Posts
On December 02 2012 10:42 Insoleet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 10:36 zEnVy wrote:On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done. Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me. So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose? How is that balance? I see more 50/50 games on huge maps with a lot of expansion which can be dropped than on small maps where zerg reinforcements comes too fast for terran to hold pushes Because on huge maps : - Terran can harass - Terran and zerg can macro up - Zerg broodlords comes but the map is huge, and terran has time to prepare
True on certain map designs, not true on others, and it's unrelated to the pure size. Terran's iirc have a better winrate on say, Whirlwind (or at least Ryung does), than say Daybreak. Also, part of people's conceptions of map balance are so far off base it's insane.
People look for what they want to find, in terms of how it fits into their intuitive feeling. In the case of a racial matchup being statistically balanced, people will look at 'how the game flows' to take one example.
You can't use just stats, or just watch games. You have to do both if you're going to talk about balance. Consider the relationship between stats, and racially favoured maps. It doesn't relate to the stubborn perceptions that remain from previous eras and metagames.
Daybreak: Considered 'slightly' Zerg favoured, by something in the ballpark of 61-39
Antiga: The map from current map pool most people whine about as being Terran favoured is something like, 52-48 in favour of T
These numbers may be wrong by one or two, but the rough ratios are close, I'm nearly sure. Couldn't find the stats that I remember another OP posted.
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Northern Ireland27445 Posts
On December 02 2012 11:21 Warillions wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 07:47 Assirra wrote:On December 02 2012 07:45 SupLilSon wrote:On December 02 2012 07:28 Assirra wrote:
Great, another balance whining thread.
Clearly we didn't have enough of those... 70% ZvT is pretty fucking alarming. How long are we gonna watch ZvZ finals and completely 1 sided rapes until you give up trying to dispel the truth lol? Sigh, i wish people would fucking read for once. I NEVER said the game was balanced so please stop trying to make up i did. I know the game is imbalanced atm but i am just so tired of reading it over and over and over and over. you realize you clicked this thread without being forced too. we are discussing win% and there is only 1 reason to do this, to study the balance/imbalance, if everything was always 50% no theads would be made about it. Its like you walk into a bar and saying your so tired of seeing drunk people. your a fuckin tool
Even win percentages are correlative to balance being achieved, but don't tell you if something is balanced in how the community perceives what balance IS.
PvT is really fucking balanced these days, statistically at many differing levels. However, there's asymmetry in difficulty between how hard it is to win with T and P respectively. The rough relationship is (as some people that aren't me put it)
T- Win earlier, or outplay your opponent really hard if you're going to lategame
P- Have a tougher early game, but if you survive the lategame is easier to win for you than you opponent.
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I was very surprised when I woke up to watch the grand finals and the views were at 27K, when previously they had rose up to 35K. Then I saw it was zvz and understood why. The last game was epic. But this is becoming a problem. Balance is actually hurting this game.
Coming from a FG community where competitive games are almost never balanced. This stuff ruins a community.
Considering that BW was pretty balanced. This issue might be new to the starcraft 2 community. But veterans can see for themselves the kind of atmosphere this creates.
Use whatever stats/information to get blizzard to be more proactive.
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On December 02 2012 16:00 KingAce wrote:
I was very surprised when I woke up to watch the grand finals and the views were at 27K, when previously they had rose up to 35K. Then I saw it was zvz and understood why. The last game was epic. But this is becoming a problem. Balance is actually hurting this game.
Coming from a FG community where competitive games are almost never balanced. This stuff ruins a community.
Considering that BW was pretty balanced. This issue might be new to the starcraft 2 community. But veterans can see for themselves the kind of atmosphere this creates.
Use whatever stats/information to get blizzard to be more proactive.
Blizz has their own stats. S'long as the matchups have ~50% winrates, they're happy. Nevermind the fact the immortal sentry is way to good, and lategame zvp is way to good.
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Not saying that sc2 is balance or inbalanced, but this is a completely pointless thread. Like a lot of "statistics" threads in sc2.
1. Include errors
There are not that many games. The error is important. How does Op handle it? Ignore it. Well done... If you would have bother to estimate the error, you would have understood how silly it is to include 2 decimals, and how little these numbers mean. (Hint, 70.23% +- 15% is silly) If only we could have more games to look at, maybe even all games in TLPD... Oh, wait, that thread is already done on a monthly basis, and these number are just a biased subset of that data, but made with horrible analysis and presented in a horrible way... :noo:
2. Bias
Would this thread be here if the percentages were around 50%? No, of course not. People don't make separate threads for win rates of each tournament. only for the tournaments that happen to be extra in favour of one race (or nationality) or the other. Which is why we should not care about these threads, but wait for the monthly summary of the month, which is a close to entirely unbiased sample.
So zerg may be OP, but it is definitely not proven by publishing selected, statistically insignificant number, and showing them without any error analysis.
TL:DR error analysis pl0x.
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On December 02 2012 16:00 KingAce wrote:
I was very surprised when I woke up to watch the grand finals and the views were at 27K, when previously they had rose up to 35K. Then I saw it was zvz and understood why. The last game was epic. But this is becoming a problem. Balance is actually hurting this game.
Coming from a FG community where competitive games are almost never balanced. This stuff ruins a community.
Considering that BW was pretty balanced. This issue might be new to the starcraft 2 community. But veterans can see for themselves the kind of atmosphere this creates.
Use whatever stats/information to get blizzard to be more proactive.
A lot of people were watching through the GOM stream so those numbers didn't mean that much.
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Screw your legend of the fall Protoss, winter is coming.
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EPT
