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IPL5, winratios by race. Calculations ! :) - Page 9

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
December 02 2012 23:36 GMT
#161
--- Nuked ---
.kv
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States2332 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 23:47:13
December 02 2012 23:38 GMT
#162
On December 03 2012 05:08 Jebediah wrote:
The stats might not be spot on, because Bomber vs Polt distracted me while counting :D
I looked through the Nov premier tournaments on Liquipedia and took the map wins, not the match wins. Mirrors weren't counted.

Code S:
TvZ: 24-39
PvZ: 10-17
TvP: 16-14

Code A:
TvZ: 4-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

ESWC:
TvZ: 7-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

MLG:
TvZ: 26-28
PvZ: 38-36
TvP: 26-18

BWC:
TvZ: 5-5
PvZ: 41-28
TvP: 5-8

IEM:
TvZ: 14-14
PvZ: 29-30
TvP: 14-8

DHW:
TvZ: 11-7
PvZ; 33-26
TvP: 17-13

WCG:
TvZ 3-2
PvZ: 33-26
TvP: 6-10


IPL5:
TvZ: 29-49
PvZ: 31-41
TvP: 26-21

Overall:
TvZ: 123-160 -> 43,5% / 56,5%
PvZ; 246-224 -> 51,3% / 48,7%
TvP: 137-111 -> 55,2% / 44,8%

TvX: 531 Games, 260 Wins -> 49%
PvX: 708 Games, 347 Wins -> 49%
ZvX: 748 Games, 384 Wins -> 51,9%

Again, this might not be completely accurate. But even if I missed a couple of games, it shouldn't make much of a difference.


Idk if there that many games played in WCG since most of it was BO1 and even the playoffs including the finals was BO3

Also I added all your Protoss wins in PvZ and only got 225

yeah just did IPL real quick for PvZ and got 30-39...
StarStruck
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
25339 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 23:46:10
December 02 2012 23:40 GMT
#163
On December 03 2012 06:24 achan1058 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 06:15 Zooper31 wrote:
Am I not the only person who came into this thread thinking race had to do with actual races, Korean, American, Swedish, etc? lol

No, since if we talk about player's actual race, it's going to be like 95% Korean, 5% foreigner or something.
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 02:25 StarStruck wrote:
On December 02 2012 08:49 Daigomi wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:17 Zenbrez wrote:
Aside from being interesting using data like this from a single tournament is pointless. Sample size way to small.

Sample size? He used the population. There can not physically be a bigger "sample".

As you say, the sample used is the entire population of games at IPL, so we can, based on the sample, conclusively say that Zerg has done better than Terran on average. However, when people say the sample size is too small, they mean it's too small to draw conclusions regarding the overall balance (or perhaps just the overall pro-level balance) of Starcraft 2. In this case, the tournament is only a small sample of all the games played at a professional level, and it's probably too small to draw any strong conclusions from. Combining the results from the IPL5 with those from other more recent tournaments does provide fairly strong evidence that Zerg is too strong at the moment, but then again, not many people are denying that anymore.

Regarding overall winrates, it's expected to be 33%/33%/33% if there wre equal numbers of all races. However, since there weren't an equal number of players from each race, this is not the case. A more useful statistic would be to look at how significantly each race has over or under-performed its expected rate.


I was going to be a little more blunt with the guy but thanks to you looks like I don't have to.

On December 02 2012 10:39 achan1058 wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:36 zEnVy wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done.


Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me.


So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose?

How is that balance?

That's how BW was balanced.


Noooooooooooooooooooooooo.

lol

-_-

Look, there have been plenty of imbalanced maps in the past BW tournaments but we don't go about our business in this way. In fact, there are plenty of maps which have very short-lived runs because they are found out to be too imbalanced. Unfortunately you still have some tournaments like WCG who never get the memo who use old maps and don't change shit.

Gorky Island anyone?

It's not as simple as that.

Blizzard are terrible at designing maps and they'll say, "Oh we're just doing that because we want people to try different strategies." The reality is... they never really had a great map design team and in many cases that's because they just don't frigging understand the game yet till the pro's start doing their thing.

"Oh, so that's how the game will play out."

They will either leave it or patch it. They rarely look at the maps and it's up to our community to play Mr. Fix It because they're too busy elsewhere.

I did not suggest that all BW maps are balance, but rather that you can skew balance one way or another by putting in certain maps, and that's what I am suggesting SC2 tournaments do as well. Throw away all the bigger maps, and put in some that's really small, small enough to guarantee a Terran favorite. If Terrans are too good after that, switch a few maps back. Heck, even if we just throw away every single map other than Antiga, the game's balance would change already. Aside from balance, there are good reason to throw away some maps, namely that the game is getting stale because of the lack of map changes already. (of course, this only works for tournaments, and will suck for anyone on ladder)


1. I knew what you were saying.

2. We do not skew balance in that way by putting in certain maps. It's a silly suggestion and that's why I was rolling my eyes at you the first time.

3. We need better maps and we need tournaments to update their map pools regularly. That has nothing to do with skewing balance. We need maps that all players would be happy to play on.
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
December 02 2012 23:44 GMT
#164
On December 03 2012 08:36 Emzeeshady wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 07:46 XXXSmOke wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:07 n0ise wrote:
glad to see it's all close to 50%


I see what you did there.

Look at the ones from all of november. They are remarkably close to 50 percent even though every matchup is imbalanced because

Z beats T
T beats P
P beats Z

is this the way the game should be balanced?


that's funny, it's like the exact opposite of BW lol
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
StarStruck
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
25339 Posts
December 02 2012 23:48 GMT
#165
On December 03 2012 08:44 Doraemon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 08:36 Emzeeshady wrote:
On December 03 2012 07:46 XXXSmOke wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:07 n0ise wrote:
glad to see it's all close to 50%


I see what you did there.

Look at the ones from all of november. They are remarkably close to 50 percent even though every matchup is imbalanced because

Z beats T
T beats P
P beats Z

is this the way the game should be balanced?


that's funny, it's like the exact opposite of BW lol


Can we try to avoid generalizations please?
Cascade
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
Australia5405 Posts
December 03 2012 01:31 GMT
#166
On December 03 2012 07:43 Entirety wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 07:35 SupLilSon wrote:
On December 03 2012 07:24 Entirety wrote:
On December 03 2012 06:31 budar wrote:
On December 02 2012 16:05 Cascade wrote:
Not saying that sc2 is balance or inbalanced, but this is a completely pointless thread. Like a lot of "statistics" threads in sc2.

1. Include errors
snip..

TL:DR error analysis pl0x.


Ok, this post makes my brain bleed. While I don't find the OP particularly interesting or important, the poster calculated the actual win rates for this tournament. He took all the games that were played and just divided two numbers. There is no error.


Do you understand the concept of error in statistics?

You see, we're trying to ascertain whether or not the matchups are balanced, that would be the population parameter. These games are merely a sample of all possible games that can be played, giving us a sample statistic.

We can now use the sample statistic to estimate the population parameter.

So if ZvT in IPL 5 is 70% or something, that is the sample statistic. Now, to see whether the matchup is balanced or not, we have to include error. Let's just say error is 15%. Thus, the actual matchup balance (disregarding bias, incorrect sampling, other variables such as player skill, etc.) is between 55% and 85%. That is what error means.


Why would you need error though, I'm kinda confused on that. Isn't error usually used when you want to extrapolate a sample statistic onto a larger unknown population?


Yes, exactly! I don't think anyone really cares about the IPL 5 statistics themselves, all they show is that Zerg did well at this particular tournament.

The larger unknown population we're interested in is the population of all possible games, the matchup itself... so we extrapolate IPL 5 TvZ statistics into the parameter of the TvZ matchup as a whole.

IPL 5 ZvT = 70%? No problem.
ZvT = 70%? HUGE problem.

So, if we say something like Zergs win 70% of their games versus Terran, just look at IPL 5! That would be flat-out wrong because we didn't include the error... Now, with error, we can say something along the lines of "we are 95% confident that Zergs win between 55%-85% of their games against Terran based upon the data from IPL 5" (yes I'm making the numbers up, but we can calculate the actual numbers, I'm just too lazy to do so right now)

Yes, exactly.

While the OP is not wrong in the litteral sense, it is increadible misleading for the majority of the readers, which is just as bad. All the imba-shouters that does not have both understanding in statistical errors and a critical mindset (which I'd estimate to at least 99% of them) will take these numbers as an argument that zerg is overpowered. As we have seen in the replies.

The truth is that the sample is too small to say much about balance on itself, which would be clear if the OP had included a little bit of error analysis. OP asks for no balance whine, while at the same time providing misleading (and overly sensational) information.
Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
December 03 2012 02:13 GMT
#167
--- Nuked ---
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
December 03 2012 07:08 GMT
#168
On December 03 2012 08:48 StarStruck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 08:44 Doraemon wrote:
On December 03 2012 08:36 Emzeeshady wrote:
On December 03 2012 07:46 XXXSmOke wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:07 n0ise wrote:
glad to see it's all close to 50%


I see what you did there.

Look at the ones from all of november. They are remarkably close to 50 percent even though every matchup is imbalanced because

Z beats T
T beats P
P beats Z

is this the way the game should be balanced?


that's funny, it's like the exact opposite of BW lol


Can we try to avoid generalizations please?


how am i wrong? it's been pretty much accepted that BW was T>Z>P>T
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
iEchoic
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States1776 Posts
December 03 2012 09:06 GMT
#169
The sample size isn't too small. There is no 'error'. These statistics aren't attempting to conclusively prove game balance issues, they're simply the win ratios for each race from a major tournament. They're raw statistics, and these statistics are simply a data point for analysis. Now that we have this data point, we can weight it place it with other data points and begin to paint a picture of game balance. Not coincidentally, every data point (this one included) points to the same conclusion, but that's well-understood by now.
vileEchoic -- clanvile.com
NaEjeOn88
Profile Joined August 2011
United States134 Posts
December 03 2012 09:17 GMT
#170
Zerg is why i quit sc2 haha
blug
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia623 Posts
December 03 2012 09:33 GMT
#171
As a Zerg, I don't mind if they nerf infestors. I'm a ling/baneling/mutalisk player anyways xD. I only get infestors/broodlord if it guys to mega late game.
Derp
playa
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States1284 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-03 09:46:39
December 03 2012 09:39 GMT
#172
As imbalanced as z vs t probably is, terran players really have no one to blame but themselves. All of that whining over how "unfair" t vs p was, all the while having ridic stats in their favor. Guess what? The stats are still just as skewed as ever. How can anyone take a foreign terran player seriously? It's like the boy that cried wolf, whose main problem probably lies in the fact that they are so much worse than the Koreans that play their race. Should probably spend more time analyzing that imbalance.

If there's anything to be learned, it's probably to enjoy having a 55-56 win percentage instead of acting like a poor, helpless victim. You know your race had it good when it's even possible to moan over such a thing. Toss players are guilty, too. Everyone singles in on one or two things that seem to be glaring imbalances; meanwhile, they miss all of the subtle imbalances that add up, ending up with players that aren't even whining about the right mu that is most "unfair." It's a circus.
Skyblueone
Profile Joined June 2012
Belgium155 Posts
December 03 2012 09:40 GMT
#173
Ryung was not totally wrong.
ShotgunMike
Profile Joined May 2011
Sweden241 Posts
December 03 2012 10:34 GMT
#174
The OP is interesting from an "IPL this particular weekend" perspective, but has not very much to do with overall balance of the game. The sample size is too small to use for generalization. One should not make this a bigger deal than it is.
Hot_Bid: "B10" - ThorZain: "BINGO" - Naniwa: "Apologize! ¤%#¤#&¤% Terran IMBA"
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