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IPL5, winratios by race. Calculations ! :) - Page 7

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 5 6 7 8 9 Next All
Finnz
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom260 Posts
December 02 2012 14:18 GMT
#121
So i think we can all clearly see that terran is op.
Naphal
Profile Joined December 2010
Germany2099 Posts
December 02 2012 14:23 GMT
#122
definitely not a protosstournament, and although TvZ looks abyssmal as usual, i still feel warm and fuzzy from watching polt and bomber play yesterday... terran wins look much more epic and hard working compared to zerg, horray for being subjective!
algue
Profile Joined July 2011
France1436 Posts
December 02 2012 14:26 GMT
#123
I want a patch for Christmas :D
(for both WoL and HoTS)
rly ?
digmouse
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
China6329 Posts
December 02 2012 14:36 GMT
#124
How about map winrates?
TranslatorIf you want to ask anything about Chinese esports, send me a PM or follow me @nerddigmouse.
Lazzi
Profile Joined June 2011
Switzerland1923 Posts
December 02 2012 16:47 GMT
#125
On December 02 2012 23:36 digmouse wrote:
How about map winrates?

Second that. Would be nice but would require a hell lot of work.
It's good to be back
StarStruck
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
25339 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 17:30:31
December 02 2012 17:25 GMT
#126
On December 02 2012 08:49 Daigomi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:17 Zenbrez wrote:
Aside from being interesting using data like this from a single tournament is pointless. Sample size way to small.

Sample size? He used the population. There can not physically be a bigger "sample".

As you say, the sample used is the entire population of games at IPL, so we can, based on the sample, conclusively say that Zerg has done better than Terran on average. However, when people say the sample size is too small, they mean it's too small to draw conclusions regarding the overall balance (or perhaps just the overall pro-level balance) of Starcraft 2. In this case, the tournament is only a small sample of all the games played at a professional level, and it's probably too small to draw any strong conclusions from. Combining the results from the IPL5 with those from other more recent tournaments does provide fairly strong evidence that Zerg is too strong at the moment, but then again, not many people are denying that anymore.

Regarding overall winrates, it's expected to be 33%/33%/33% if there wre equal numbers of all races. However, since there weren't an equal number of players from each race, this is not the case. A more useful statistic would be to look at how significantly each race has over or under-performed its expected rate.


I was going to be a little more blunt with the guy but thanks to you looks like I don't have to.

On December 02 2012 10:39 achan1058 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 10:36 zEnVy wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done.


Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me.


So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose?

How is that balance?

That's how BW was balanced.


Noooooooooooooooooooooooo.

lol

-_-

Look, there have been plenty of imbalanced maps in the past BW tournaments but we don't go about our business in this way. In fact, there are plenty of maps which have very short-lived runs because they are found out to be too imbalanced. Unfortunately you still have some tournaments like WCG who never get the memo who use old maps and don't change shit.

Gorky Island anyone?

It's not as simple as that.

Blizzard are terrible at designing maps and they'll say, "Oh we're just doing that because we want people to try different strategies." The reality is... they never really had a great map design team and in many cases that's because they just don't frigging understand the game yet till the pro's start doing their thing.

"Oh, so that's how the game will play out."

They will either leave it or patch it. They rarely look at the maps and it's up to our community to play Mr. Fix It because they're too busy elsewhere.
xwoGworwaTsx
Profile Joined April 2012
United States984 Posts
December 02 2012 17:45 GMT
#127
the math in this one seems wrong!
Sophia
Profile Joined April 2012
Germany115 Posts
December 02 2012 17:47 GMT
#128
TvZ seems really balanced.
Jebediah
Profile Joined April 2012
Germany106 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 20:13:07
December 02 2012 20:08 GMT
#129
The stats might not be spot on, because Bomber vs Polt distracted me while counting :D
I looked through the Nov premier tournaments on Liquipedia and took the map wins, not the match wins. Mirrors weren't counted.

Code S:
TvZ: 24-39
PvZ: 10-17
TvP: 16-14

Code A:
TvZ: 4-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

ESWC:
TvZ: 7-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

MLG:
TvZ: 26-28
PvZ: 38-36
TvP: 26-18

BWC:
TvZ: 5-5
PvZ: 41-28
TvP: 5-8

IEM:
TvZ: 14-14
PvZ: 29-30
TvP: 14-8

DHW:
TvZ: 11-7
PvZ; 33-26
TvP: 17-13

WCG:
TvZ 3-2
PvZ: 33-26
TvP: 6-10

IPL5:
TvZ: 29-49
PvZ: 31-41
TvP: 26-21

Overall:
TvZ: 123-160 -> 43,5% / 56,5%
PvZ; 246-224 -> 51,3% / 48,7%
TvP: 137-111 -> 55,2% / 44,8%

TvX: 531 Games, 260 Wins -> 49%
PvX: 708 Games, 347 Wins -> 49%
ZvX: 748 Games, 384 Wins -> 51,9%

Again, this might not be completely accurate. But even if I missed a couple of games, it shouldn't make much of a difference.

Babru
Profile Joined September 2010
196 Posts
December 02 2012 20:24 GMT
#130
On December 03 2012 05:08 Jebediah wrote:
The stats might not be spot on, because Bomber vs Polt distracted me while counting :D
I looked through the Nov premier tournaments on Liquipedia and took the map wins, not the match wins. Mirrors weren't counted.

Code S:
TvZ: 24-39
PvZ: 10-17
TvP: 16-14

Code A:
TvZ: 4-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

ESWC:
TvZ: 7-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

MLG:
TvZ: 26-28
PvZ: 38-36
TvP: 26-18

BWC:
TvZ: 5-5
PvZ: 41-28
TvP: 5-8

IEM:
TvZ: 14-14
PvZ: 29-30
TvP: 14-8

DHW:
TvZ: 11-7
PvZ; 33-26
TvP: 17-13

WCG:
TvZ 3-2
PvZ: 33-26
TvP: 6-10

IPL5:
TvZ: 29-49
PvZ: 31-41
TvP: 26-21

Overall:
TvZ: 123-160 -> 43,5% / 56,5%
PvZ; 246-224 -> 51,3% / 48,7%
TvP: 137-111 -> 55,2% / 44,8%

TvX: 531 Games, 260 Wins -> 49%
PvX: 708 Games, 347 Wins -> 49%
ZvX: 748 Games, 384 Wins -> 51,9%

Again, this might not be completely accurate. But even if I missed a couple of games, it shouldn't make much of a difference.



Nice work. Did not expect P to be 51,3% vs Z, and this is from a decent amount of games.
Enel
Profile Joined April 2012
Sudan430 Posts
December 02 2012 20:51 GMT
#131
P wins over Z in the shitty tournaments and Z dominates P in the super high level tournaments.
Go Sudan
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
December 02 2012 20:59 GMT
#132
On December 03 2012 05:24 Babru wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 05:08 Jebediah wrote:
The stats might not be spot on, because Bomber vs Polt distracted me while counting :D
I looked through the Nov premier tournaments on Liquipedia and took the map wins, not the match wins. Mirrors weren't counted.

Code S:
TvZ: 24-39
PvZ: 10-17
TvP: 16-14

Code A:
TvZ: 4-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

ESWC:
TvZ: 7-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

MLG:
TvZ: 26-28
PvZ: 38-36
TvP: 26-18

BWC:
TvZ: 5-5
PvZ: 41-28
TvP: 5-8

IEM:
TvZ: 14-14
PvZ: 29-30
TvP: 14-8

DHW:
TvZ: 11-7
PvZ; 33-26
TvP: 17-13

WCG:
TvZ 3-2
PvZ: 33-26
TvP: 6-10

IPL5:
TvZ: 29-49
PvZ: 31-41
TvP: 26-21

Overall:
TvZ: 123-160 -> 43,5% / 56,5%
PvZ; 246-224 -> 51,3% / 48,7%
TvP: 137-111 -> 55,2% / 44,8%

TvX: 531 Games, 260 Wins -> 49%
PvX: 708 Games, 347 Wins -> 49%
ZvX: 748 Games, 384 Wins -> 51,9%

Again, this might not be completely accurate. But even if I missed a couple of games, it shouldn't make much of a difference.



Nice work. Did not expect P to be 51,3% vs Z, and this is from a decent amount of games.


Biggest factor there is BWC with tons of Korean Protoss beating foreigner Zergs.
Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
December 02 2012 21:04 GMT
#133
--- Nuked ---
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10126 Posts
December 02 2012 21:10 GMT
#134
On December 03 2012 06:04 Emzeeshady wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 05:08 Jebediah wrote:
The stats might not be spot on, because Bomber vs Polt distracted me while counting :D
I looked through the Nov premier tournaments on Liquipedia and took the map wins, not the match wins. Mirrors weren't counted.

Code S:
TvZ: 24-39
PvZ: 10-17
TvP: 16-14

Code A:
TvZ: 4-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

ESWC:
TvZ: 7-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

MLG:
TvZ: 26-28
PvZ: 38-36
TvP: 26-18

BWC:
TvZ: 5-5
PvZ: 41-28
TvP: 5-8

IEM:
TvZ: 14-14
PvZ: 29-30
TvP: 14-8

DHW:
TvZ: 11-7
PvZ; 33-26
TvP: 17-13

WCG:
TvZ 3-2
PvZ: 33-26
TvP: 6-10

IPL5:
TvZ: 29-49
PvZ: 31-41
TvP: 26-21

Overall:
TvZ: 123-160 -> 43,5% / 56,5%
PvZ; 246-224 -> 51,3% / 48,7%
TvP: 137-111 -> 55,2% / 44,8%

TvX: 531 Games, 260 Wins -> 49%
PvX: 708 Games, 347 Wins -> 49%
ZvX: 748 Games, 384 Wins -> 51,9%

Again, this might not be completely accurate. But even if I missed a couple of games, it shouldn't make much of a difference.


I KNEW IT

Protoss players are full of shit!


Yes, because BWC which is carrying those stats had a lot of big korean Z.
zicoz
Profile Joined January 2012
Norway212 Posts
December 02 2012 21:13 GMT
#135
I did something similar here, but not as many tournaments, but more data is visible to those who want to look more into it for the ones I did do. (Code S, BWC, Lone Star and IPL (winner bracket + final bracket)

http://sdrv.ms/U8s39U

There are 2 things that stands out to me. In tournaments where there were really long qualifiers (IPL and BWC) Zergs are going in really strong.

And Zergs seems to be doing best in the opening rounds, going 5-1 vs Terran at BWC and 10-3 in the Code S RO32
"The snow on the roof is too heavy, his brains are in terrible danger."
Zooper31
Profile Joined May 2009
United States5710 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 21:19:35
December 02 2012 21:15 GMT
#136
Am I not the only person who came into this thread thinking race had to do with actual races, Korean, American, Swedish, etc? lol
Asato ma sad gamaya, tamaso ma jyotir gamaya, mrtyor mamrtam gamaya
Valikyr
Profile Joined June 2010
Sweden2653 Posts
December 02 2012 21:16 GMT
#137
On December 03 2012 06:15 Zooper31 wrote:
Am I not the only person who came into this thread thinking race had to do with actual races, Korea, American, Swedish, etc?

Nah I'm not living in the 40's.
Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
December 02 2012 21:17 GMT
#138
--- Nuked ---
keglu
Profile Joined June 2011
Poland485 Posts
December 02 2012 21:21 GMT
#139
On December 03 2012 06:17 Emzeeshady wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 06:10 Godwrath wrote:
On December 03 2012 06:04 Emzeeshady wrote:
On December 03 2012 05:08 Jebediah wrote:
The stats might not be spot on, because Bomber vs Polt distracted me while counting :D
I looked through the Nov premier tournaments on Liquipedia and took the map wins, not the match wins. Mirrors weren't counted.

Code S:
TvZ: 24-39
PvZ: 10-17
TvP: 16-14

Code A:
TvZ: 4-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

ESWC:
TvZ: 7-8
PvZ: 5-3
TvP: 21-12

MLG:
TvZ: 26-28
PvZ: 38-36
TvP: 26-18

BWC:
TvZ: 5-5
PvZ: 41-28
TvP: 5-8

IEM:
TvZ: 14-14
PvZ: 29-30
TvP: 14-8

DHW:
TvZ: 11-7
PvZ; 33-26
TvP: 17-13

WCG:
TvZ 3-2
PvZ: 33-26
TvP: 6-10

IPL5:
TvZ: 29-49
PvZ: 31-41
TvP: 26-21

Overall:
TvZ: 123-160 -> 43,5% / 56,5%
PvZ; 246-224 -> 51,3% / 48,7%
TvP: 137-111 -> 55,2% / 44,8%

TvX: 531 Games, 260 Wins -> 49%
PvX: 708 Games, 347 Wins -> 49%
ZvX: 748 Games, 384 Wins -> 51,9%

Again, this might not be completely accurate. But even if I missed a couple of games, it shouldn't make much of a difference.


I KNEW IT

Protoss players are full of shit!


Yes, because BWC which is carrying those stats had a lot of big korean Z.

Because they couldn't qualify -_- not to mention protoss is favoured at many other of these tournaments as well.

Just admit it. Toss players just like to whine for no reason


They have some reasons. No Protoss players in Code S top4, no Protoss players in IPL Top6, MLG Top4. These are tournaments lately with highest level of players.
achan1058
Profile Joined February 2012
1091 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 21:31:49
December 02 2012 21:24 GMT
#140
On December 03 2012 06:15 Zooper31 wrote:
Am I not the only person who came into this thread thinking race had to do with actual races, Korean, American, Swedish, etc? lol

No, since if we talk about player's actual race, it's going to be like 95% Korean, 5% foreigner or something.
On December 03 2012 02:25 StarStruck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 08:49 Daigomi wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:17 Zenbrez wrote:
Aside from being interesting using data like this from a single tournament is pointless. Sample size way to small.

Sample size? He used the population. There can not physically be a bigger "sample".

As you say, the sample used is the entire population of games at IPL, so we can, based on the sample, conclusively say that Zerg has done better than Terran on average. However, when people say the sample size is too small, they mean it's too small to draw conclusions regarding the overall balance (or perhaps just the overall pro-level balance) of Starcraft 2. In this case, the tournament is only a small sample of all the games played at a professional level, and it's probably too small to draw any strong conclusions from. Combining the results from the IPL5 with those from other more recent tournaments does provide fairly strong evidence that Zerg is too strong at the moment, but then again, not many people are denying that anymore.

Regarding overall winrates, it's expected to be 33%/33%/33% if there wre equal numbers of all races. However, since there weren't an equal number of players from each race, this is not the case. A more useful statistic would be to look at how significantly each race has over or under-performed its expected rate.


I was going to be a little more blunt with the guy but thanks to you looks like I don't have to.

Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 10:39 achan1058 wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:36 zEnVy wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:27 dcemuser wrote:
On December 02 2012 10:05 achan1058 wrote:
Seriously, if this is such a problem, there's no need to wait for blizzard. The tournament organizers can throw back in Steppes and be done.


Wait, solving balance through maps? That sounds like blasphemy to me.


So, if Terran plays on Steppes they win, and if they don't play on steppes they lose?

How is that balance?

That's how BW was balanced.


Noooooooooooooooooooooooo.

lol

-_-

Look, there have been plenty of imbalanced maps in the past BW tournaments but we don't go about our business in this way. In fact, there are plenty of maps which have very short-lived runs because they are found out to be too imbalanced. Unfortunately you still have some tournaments like WCG who never get the memo who use old maps and don't change shit.

Gorky Island anyone?

It's not as simple as that.

Blizzard are terrible at designing maps and they'll say, "Oh we're just doing that because we want people to try different strategies." The reality is... they never really had a great map design team and in many cases that's because they just don't frigging understand the game yet till the pro's start doing their thing.

"Oh, so that's how the game will play out."

They will either leave it or patch it. They rarely look at the maps and it's up to our community to play Mr. Fix It because they're too busy elsewhere.

I did not suggest that all BW maps are balance, but rather that you can skew balance one way or another by putting in certain maps, and that's what I am suggesting SC2 tournaments do as well. Throw away all the bigger maps, and put in some that's really small, small enough to guarantee a Terran favorite. If Terrans are too good after that, switch a few maps back. Heck, even if we just throw away every single map other than Antiga, the game's balance would change already. Aside from balance, there are good reason to throw away some maps, namely that the game is getting stale because of the lack of map changes already. (of course, this only works for tournaments, and will suck for anyone on ladder)
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