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IPL5, winratios by race. Calculations ! :) - Page 3

Forum Index > SC2 General
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dUTtrOACh
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada2339 Posts
December 01 2012 22:50 GMT
#41
On December 02 2012 07:47 Assirra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:45 SupLilSon wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:28 Assirra wrote:
Great, another balance whining thread.
Clearly we didn't have enough of those...

70% ZvT is pretty fucking alarming. How long are we gonna watch ZvZ finals and completely 1 sided rapes until you give up trying to dispel the truth lol?

Sigh, i wish people would fucking read for once.
I NEVER said the game was balanced so please stop trying to make up i did.


And here YOU go, whining about balance.

See how annoying it is to be accused of "whining" when all you're doing is observing a recent trend that favours one race?
twitch.tv/duttroach
L3g3nd_
Profile Joined July 2010
New Zealand10461 Posts
December 01 2012 22:50 GMT
#42
On December 02 2012 07:45 SupLilSon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:28 Assirra wrote:
Great, another balance whining thread.
Clearly we didn't have enough of those...

70% ZvT is pretty fucking alarming. How long are we gonna watch ZvZ finals and completely 1 sided rapes until you give up trying to dispel the truth lol?

Sigh, i wish people would fucking read for once.
its over one tournament........... say the top 3 players at this tournament are zerg, then those 3 players are gonna win a lot more than they lose, and will completely destroy the win rates in zergs favour.

Statistics are no measure of balance. even if you have the stats from an entire month, leenock and life probably have a combined winrate of something like 80% over 40 games or even more games this month, thats because they are 2 of the best palyers atm, that completely squeues balance stats.
https://twitter.com/#!/IrisAnother
NonY
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
8748 Posts
December 01 2012 22:52 GMT
#43
The Overall calculation is combining the win rate calculation and the race distribution calculation (not shown in the OP). It is also affected by the distribution of matchups as some people have already pointed out. But I think the impact it's supposed to have is that fans of zerg watching the tournament get to see their race win in over half the games played (there are lots of zergs in the bracket and they often win) while protoss fans and terran fans each see their race win less than a quarter of the time. Of course games in which your race isn't played prevent your race from winning (terran and protoss can't get wins in a ZvZ, and zerg will just get closer to 50% after a ZvZ) but this is significant in an elimination bracket, not totally random.
"Fucking up is part of it. If you can't fail, you have to always win. And I don't think you can always win." Elliott Smith ---------- Yet no sudden rage darkened his face, and his eyes were calm as they studied her. Then he smiled. 'Witness.'
Huragius
Profile Joined September 2010
Lithuania1506 Posts
December 01 2012 22:54 GMT
#44
On December 02 2012 07:50 L3g3nd_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:45 SupLilSon wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:28 Assirra wrote:
Great, another balance whining thread.
Clearly we didn't have enough of those...

70% ZvT is pretty fucking alarming. How long are we gonna watch ZvZ finals and completely 1 sided rapes until you give up trying to dispel the truth lol?

Sigh, i wish people would fucking read for once.
its over one tournament........... say the top 3 players at this tournament are zerg, then those 3 players are gonna win a lot more than they lose, and will completely destroy the win rates in zergs favour.

Statistics are no measure of balance. even if you have the stats from an entire month, leenock and life probably have a combined winrate of something like 80% over 40 games or even more games this month, thats because they are 2 of the best palyers atm, that completely squeues balance stats.


Such a bad example i can't even believe it.I can make this stupid excuse about mvp, taeja, rain, parting and etc. to the point where terran and protoss will have close to zero win ratio in tournaments.
sixfour
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
England11061 Posts
December 01 2012 22:57 GMT
#45
On December 02 2012 07:50 L3g3nd_ wrote:

its over one tournament........... say the top 3 players at this tournament are zerg, then those 3 players are gonna win a lot more than they lose, and will completely destroy the win rates in zergs favour.


this, this, 100 times this. i mean it's a nice thread and everything, but anyone using raw percentages from a small sample size without even considering quality of players in each race is ridiculous.
p: stats, horang2, free, jangbi z: soulkey, zero, shine, hydra t: leta, hiya, sea
fire_brand
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Canada1123 Posts
December 01 2012 22:58 GMT
#46
On December 02 2012 07:11 corpuscle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:07 Jormundr wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

That's the percentage of games won by the race out of total number of games played, not an average win %.


The numbers still don't make any sense, though. If Terran is winning 31% of their vZ, 55% of their vP, and 50% of their vT (obviously), how does it end up as 24% overall?

Show nested quote +
If I won 9-1 tvz, I have a 90% winrate.
If I won 1-4 tvp, I have a 20% winrate.

I have a 66.67% (10/15) total winrate, even though the average of the 2 is 55% (110/2).


That's not how you calculate an average in a situation like that. You've played twice as many TvZs, so you use a weighted average, i.e. (2*90 + 20)/3 = 66.67


Mirror Matches are always 50% so they bring the overall win rate closer to 50. By how much is dependent on how many mirror matches of each there was, i.e. 30 PvPs vs 60 ZvZs means the ZvZ will be pulled closer to 50% for zerg than for Protoss.
Random player, pixel enthusiast, crappy illustrator, offlane/support
FeyverN
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States104 Posts
December 01 2012 22:58 GMT
#47
It's a shame that a good amount of threads on TeamLiquid have dissolved into a balance whining cesspool.
fuck
JMDj
Profile Joined September 2010
United States454 Posts
December 01 2012 22:59 GMT
#48
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elaborate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.

User was warned for this post
SupLilSon
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia4123 Posts
December 01 2012 23:02 GMT
#49
On December 02 2012 07:47 Assirra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:45 SupLilSon wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:28 Assirra wrote:
Great, another balance whining thread.
Clearly we didn't have enough of those...

70% ZvT is pretty fucking alarming. How long are we gonna watch ZvZ finals and completely 1 sided rapes until you give up trying to dispel the truth lol?

Sigh, i wish people would fucking read for once.
I NEVER said the game was balanced so please stop trying to make up i did.
I know the game is imbalanced atm but i am just so tired of reading it over and over and over and over.


Well the rest of us are actually tired of the game being imbalanced. I won't get tired of hearing that until the game is fixed tbh.
Huragius
Profile Joined September 2010
Lithuania1506 Posts
December 01 2012 23:03 GMT
#50
On December 02 2012 07:59 Swagasaurus wrote:
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elabate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.


maybe you are incomprehensibly stupid to get so mad about non-finished tournament statistics? or maybe you are so mad because these statistics leads to a conclusion which can not be admitted by zerg players ?
raQn
Profile Joined October 2012
Poland21 Posts
December 01 2012 23:07 GMT
#51
On December 02 2012 07:59 Swagasaurus wrote:
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elaborate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.


Thanks for your opinion, althrough expressed in not the best way Also I explained in the OP why I didn't included Final Bracket. You completely got me wrong, sir.
convention
Profile Joined October 2011
United States622 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-01 23:18:26
December 01 2012 23:14 GMT
#52
On December 02 2012 08:07 raQn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:59 Swagasaurus wrote:
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elaborate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.


Thanks for your opinion, althrough expressed in not the best way Also I explained in the OP why I didn't included Final Bracket. You completely got me wrong, sir.

Thanks for the thread, it's too bad about half of the people that are responding didn't even read the entire OP.

On December 02 2012 07:57 sixfour wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:50 L3g3nd_ wrote:

its over one tournament........... say the top 3 players at this tournament are zerg, then those 3 players are gonna win a lot more than they lose, and will completely destroy the win rates in zergs favour.


this, this, 100 times this. i mean it's a nice thread and everything, but anyone using raw percentages from a small sample size without even considering quality of players in each race is ridiculous.

IPL is the most stacked tournament to date (outside of GSL). There are a lot of top terrans, lots of top protoss (maybe parting is the only one I can think of missing), and a lot of top zergs. The distribution of top tier players of each race is pretty even. Just look at each race: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IGN_ProLeague_Season_5. There is no way anyone can believe that there are more top zergs than the other races.
Serpico
Profile Joined May 2010
4285 Posts
December 01 2012 23:17 GMT
#53
I'll wait until the games are actually finished.
convention
Profile Joined October 2011
United States622 Posts
December 01 2012 23:19 GMT
#54
On December 02 2012 08:17 Serpico wrote:
I'll wait until the games are actually finished.

Three sets of games won't even make a difference compared to the hundreds that are already in the OP.
dUTtrOACh
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada2339 Posts
December 01 2012 23:19 GMT
#55
On December 02 2012 08:14 convention wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 08:07 raQn wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:59 Swagasaurus wrote:
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elaborate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.


Thanks for your opinion, althrough expressed in not the best way Also I explained in the OP why I didn't included Final Bracket. You completely got me wrong, sir.

Thanks for the thread, it's too bad about half of the people that are responding didn't even read the entire OP.


The OP doesn't even contain a single assertion of balance, and I agree that it's fairly unbiased. The OP does however ask for input regarding things that are wrong with the calculations, and one thing that is wrong about them (or misleading) is a)"Overall" includes mirrors and b)The tournament isn't over.
twitch.tv/duttroach
convention
Profile Joined October 2011
United States622 Posts
December 01 2012 23:22 GMT
#56
On December 02 2012 08:19 dUTtrOACh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 08:14 convention wrote:
On December 02 2012 08:07 raQn wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:59 Swagasaurus wrote:
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elaborate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.


Thanks for your opinion, althrough expressed in not the best way Also I explained in the OP why I didn't included Final Bracket. You completely got me wrong, sir.

Thanks for the thread, it's too bad about half of the people that are responding didn't even read the entire OP.


The OP doesn't even contain a single assertion of balance, and I agree that it's fairly unbiased. The OP does however ask for input regarding things that are wrong with the calculations, and one thing that is wrong about them (or misleading) is a)"Overall" includes mirrors and b)The tournament isn't over.

For b), the last three sets of games will have no impact compared to the hundreds that have already been played.
FGFGFG
Profile Joined March 2012
Netherlands21 Posts
December 01 2012 23:28 GMT
#57
nice stats!

the fact that race distribution is weighed in the ´overall´ stat makes it a bit confusing and useless, but still nice stats.
EtherealDeath
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
United States8366 Posts
December 01 2012 23:31 GMT
#58
Overall is a nearly worthless stat. Reason - it is a positive feedback loop if one race is slightly imba and/or happens to win more in the first round or two. Then more of the race distribution will be of that race, and overall counts mirrors - thus that race's overall win% will go up.
raQn
Profile Joined October 2012
Poland21 Posts
December 01 2012 23:33 GMT
#59
On December 02 2012 08:19 dUTtrOACh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 08:14 convention wrote:
On December 02 2012 08:07 raQn wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:59 Swagasaurus wrote:
OP you're seriously so incomprehensibly stupid i don't know where to begin.

The tournament isn't even over yet but you stressed that you were looking for the "Overall" winrates? Is this a really elaborate joke or something? That's going to skew the results immensely, THERE ARE STILL GAMES THAT HAVE TO BE PLAYED.

I wish people would actually spend time playing the game instead of coming up with the most retarded ways to justify their balance complaints.


Thanks for your opinion, althrough expressed in not the best way Also I explained in the OP why I didn't included Final Bracket. You completely got me wrong, sir.

Thanks for the thread, it's too bad about half of the people that are responding didn't even read the entire OP.


The OP doesn't even contain a single assertion of balance, and I agree that it's fairly unbiased. The OP does however ask for input regarding things that are wrong with the calculations, and one thing that is wrong about them (or misleading) is a)"Overall" includes mirrors and b)The tournament isn't over.


Yes, I should maybe rename Overall or even remove it. As for b), convention has right, data from final bracket is irrevelant because there are 10 matches left (from over 100) with 2 terrans and 8 zerg fighting.
urbaNo
Profile Joined August 2012
United States47 Posts
December 01 2012 23:40 GMT
#60
the results are pretty one sided. i wonder if blizzard will exclude this piece of info so they can keep saying that zerg does not have an advantage globally or whatever.

also kinda annoying that you did all this precise calculation, but then you used commas as opposed to periods for your decimal places in your percentages??? wtf?

just saying... :D
'Gracias. Voy a ganar." -Liquid' Taeja
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