EPT[June] win rates are now here! - Page 23
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RandomAccount#106470
Lithuania1506 Posts
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Markwerf
Netherlands3728 Posts
Of course there is some lag though as qualification often happens long before a tournament so a patch can take place in between, in which case the results more show a SHIFT in balance then actual balance itself. For example if terran is doing badly in GSL now it doesn't mean that terran is too weak, it simply means that terran is weaker now then before and thus they are performing badly which eventually will be corrected by fewer terrans staying in code S/A. Results corrected for skill (which has the difficulty of measuring skill reliably) or just results from matches where no real prior qualification was is the most reliable information. Stratified tournaments where each race is equally present by default are also more reliable. It seems however that TLPD data is mostly from tournaments with some selection procedure beforehand so you can never judge balance from those properly.. It's virtually impossible to remove the bias caused by the selection procedure from the results, ie. you can't do a fair analysis on these stats. | ||
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ShadowDrgn
United States2497 Posts
On July 09 2012 05:04 dde wrote: only 17 percents difference? i guess terrans are closing out the gap. I was expecting way bigger difference judging by terran slumping really hard on international events. Those numbers are for individual games though. If a player only has a 41.5% chance to win a single game, they have a ~37% chance in a Bo3 and a ~34% chance in a Bo5. When you're dealing with big tournaments and lots of 'best of x' rounds, even a small shift in per-game win rates can result in extremely lopsided results. Just look at some of the GSLs from last year where the later rounds were almost entirely Terran players despite the matchup stats showing Terran winning at best 55% of games. | ||
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scypio
Poland2127 Posts
On July 09 2012 03:05 Toastie.NL wrote: My opinion; Balance by winrates seems fine, Viewer experience has never been worse (tvz and pvz being macrofest for 15 minutes into deathball attack - tvp still race vs time) Glad ZvZ and PvP are getting better by the day? Yeah, I'm feeling the same thing. I just peeked into HSC results, + Show Spoiler + Nerchio won, Well, I hope HotS mixes things up, because I'm drifting towards "SC2 has to go". | ||
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Reborn8u
United States1761 Posts
My impression of korea is that many of the terrans have held on, by reverting to cheese. I've seen a lot of it lately on streams, vs protoss and zerg. So that messes with the stats quite a bit. (if it's as common throughout the pro scene as what I've been seeing lately) | ||
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BandonBanshee
Canada437 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:16 Huragius wrote: REALLY ?! That proves and explains so much ! + Show Spoiler + Not. It proves your whining doesn't pay off as much as Thorzains practice. | ||
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Shiori
3815 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:55 BandonBanshee wrote: It proves your whining doesn't pay off as much as Thorzains practice. I like how it's only ever Zergs who cherrypick Terran streams that they problem don't even understand and quickly assert that TvZ has been solved, all the while ignoring the greater Terran populace who have been struggling to deal with Zerg lategame even since before the patch hit. | ||
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wcr.4fun
Belgium686 Posts
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Silencioseu
Cyprus493 Posts
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Assirra
Belgium4169 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:56 Shiori wrote: I like how it's only ever Zergs who cherrypick Terran streams that they problem don't even understand and quickly assert that TvZ has been solved, all the while ignoring the greater Terran populace who have been struggling to deal with Zerg lategame even since before the patch hit. And i like how people claimed zerg was fine back when there were 2 in round 16 code S and 0 in round 8. But i guess the others just played better right. | ||
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artosismermaid
213 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:16 Huragius wrote: REALLY ?! That proves and explains so much ! + Show Spoiler + Not. pretty sure he had a new account and was playing like low to mid masters zergs too | ||
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-KarakStarcraft-
United States258 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:48 Reborn8u wrote: Win rates can be very deceiving. You have to get a HUGE sample size in order to account for all ins, cheese, and failed allins and failed cheese. If your sample size is too small, these types of things make up too large a part of the stats. Many rush games are coin flips or depend on defender making 1 tiny mistake and loosing. They are unreliable and inconsistent in terms of balance. What needs to be really looked at is the long term trends of many thousands of games. My impression of korea is that many of the terrans have held on, by reverting to cheese. I've seen a lot of it lately on streams, vs protoss and zerg. So that messes with the stats quite a bit. (if it's as common throughout the pro scene as what I've been seeing lately) Fixed your post. While sample sizes are of course critical, your understanding of why is a bit off. | ||
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BerkmanZ
United States56 Posts
 I think Terrans need to adapt to this new style. MarineKing is doing interesting things and is near a breakthrough, I think all his build is missing is BCs. | ||
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Yoshi Kirishima
United States10383 Posts
On July 04 2012 14:04 jmbthirteen wrote: then why do so many Koreans leave for foreign teams? Why did MVP say he wants to win X amount of money in a year? Don't kid yourself, they play for money too. He's talking less about ethnicity and more about the team/place they are in... so once they join a foreign/international team, they're not one of those "koreans" anymore | ||
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Dephy
Lithuania163 Posts
On July 09 2012 07:34 BerkmanZ wrote: who called in the fleet? I think Terrans need to adapt to this new style. MarineKing is doing interesting things and is near a breakthrough, I think all his build is missing is BCs. no, mkp is whining that he have 10% winrate tvz. | ||
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Greenei
Germany1754 Posts
On July 09 2012 06:55 BandonBanshee wrote: It proves your whining doesn't pay off as much as Thorzains practice. it's funny because thorzain complains about balance too. also preemtively: "BUT MVP WON GSL TRAIN MORE COMPLAIN LESS LIKE HIM HERP DERP" mvp also complained about balance. i honestly think you are hard pressed to find a terran who doesn't complain about balance these days... | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On July 09 2012 19:21 Dephy wrote: no, mkp is whining that he have 10% winrate tvz. Well to be fair, Koreans whine about balance a lot. It does not make their whine superior or more valid than other whine. | ||
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Neurosis
United States893 Posts
On July 09 2012 07:19 Silencioseu wrote: Other than international TvZ, the winrates look pretty balanced. I know i've been raging on TL about the TvZ match up but perhaps we must learn something from Koreans? Watching at code A looks pretty bad actually, so could the code S players win simply because of insane micro and macro? Code S terran player's micro is obviously a massive part as to why they can still win in t v z, but more importantly (especially these days) it's their cheeses and timing attacks. If you want to play vs zerg "straight up", well you can't sorry. You can't compete with a zerg economy so instead you need to be extremely tricky and kill lots of drones. | ||
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nttea
Sweden4353 Posts
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Orek
1665 Posts
On July 09 2012 19:47 nttea wrote: Jesus christ how is there even a debate... tvz clearly favours z right now, pretty much the same retarded debate from both sides as was seen in early sc2 when the situation was reverse. There used to be these hilariously bad terrans finding excuse after excuse as to why terrans won everything and ladder was a piece of cake for terrible terrans. Roaches had 3 range tanks did 70 damage and maps were pocket sized(and don't even get me started on the fucking mass reaper strat), it's hilarious how people could still defend that situation as anything but ridiculous and i feel it's the same thing now only the opposite. Because this is politics. Nothing is wrong with that. Terran players are republican, and Zerg players are democrat, for example. We don't have millions of voters, though. The only voter here is David Kim from Blizzard. Terran won the election in July 2010 when the game came out. Zerg won the last election held in May 2012. What do you do when you win the last election? You try to remain in power and win the next election again. How? By convincing the voter that the current situation is good and fair. What do you do when you lose the last election. You try to win the next election. How? By blaming the current situation and showing the evidence how unfair it is. Both sides think they are right, and the other party is missint the point. Both sides think they are being fair, and the other party is being unfair. Having heard both side's claims, the voter will decide which to vote for the next election. "We just need 50-50 fair game." is as good as politicians saying "We should create a fair society." That is, when the term "fair" cannot be clearly defined, it means nothing. If it is 40-60 only in Code S, and 50-50 everywhere else, do you call it fair? OR If it is 50-50 only in Code S, and 40-60 everywhere else, is that the fair situation? Then, there comes the logic, "Only top players with insane skill can compete with race X. Race X is harder than the other one." As such, nothing can be truly fair for everybody. Politics never ends. The enemy of justice is not evil, but another justice. | ||
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