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[?] Spades hacking? - Page 287

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07:06 KST - method linked here has been disproved here

10:54 KST - Find a full timeline of pro comments (including Spades) in the topic here.

08:47 KST - Summary:
Accusations of maphacking have the potential to destroy a player's career if left unaddressed. Because of the potential consequences, we should be careful about accepting unproven accusations. The principle of 'innocent until proven guilty' should be applied here. That does not mean that there has been a conclusion about this case, however, which is why this thread remains tentatively open.

Please discuss with caution and use evidence to back up your claims.

(also a summary post by an unnamed pro on reddit here)
Agnosthar
Profile Joined August 2010
631 Posts
June 07 2012 06:17 GMT
#5721
Confirmed map hacker in Broodwar.
Confirmed stream cheater in SC2.

In my mind he's already done enough that no right thinking team/tournament should be getting involved with this guy.

This is basically the e-sports equivalent of drugs in physical sport, should be zero tolerance here.
jacksonlee
Profile Joined October 2010
175 Posts
June 07 2012 06:18 GMT
#5722
I hope you guys realize how much time you're spending on speculating and arguing to no avail. Because this "discussion" is just hearsay to the mods and officials and even Sapdes until someone comes up with definite proof.
Integra
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Sweden5626 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-07 06:18:55
June 07 2012 06:18 GMT
#5723
Will be interesting to see if Spades actually shows up at the tournament since every pro player now thinks or suspects that he cheats and hacks, lol. (The stream cheating is already confirmed, remember?)
"Dark Pleasure" | | I survived the Locust war of May 3, 2014
StarStrider
Profile Joined August 2011
United States689 Posts
June 07 2012 06:20 GMT
#5724
On June 07 2012 14:37 psychotics wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 07 2012 14:23 insanet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 14:18 psychotics wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 07 2012 13:36 insanet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
one thing i would like to add to this is i'd like to take a chance to try and give some feedback against the people saying "oh his streamed ladder games he played different then the show match, he must be hacking because no one can change play-styles like that" this is completely false actually. i have watched hundreds of games streamed by players and have also watched hundreds of games by the same players in MLG thru the First person cam view. and i can say that many people would be surprised to know that many players play completely different on stream then in tournaments. DRG for example plays alot slower on ladder then in tournaments same with stephano. theres a notable difference in the APM and speed they play at. in MLG DRG averages something like 350+ apm (i think last time i saw the number was 384) his stream he plays in the mid 200's. does this prove that spades was cheating, no, does it prove he wasn't, no but it does mean that just because his play looked different isnt necessarily evidence against him.



1. so watched hundreds of replays, and the only point you bring up is APM, how low apm is completely different to high apm?, in what way does it change everything?, it doesnt change that much, he probably micro a bit less in ladder, but saying is completely different is false.
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
on another note, innocent till proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, should and must hold true in these type of situations. .


2. sorry but "innocent until proven guilty" doesnt apply to rapers, pedophiles, ex-cheaters, because you have a past.

Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
show me a replay where he obviously reacts to something that he could only have known about with hacks (example the protoss maphacker from the thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342704 HRGZack blindly building his mass cannons to defend the allin) show me something that cant be explained away without map hacks and i will gladly take back my defense of spades but as it stands im not convinced. i still think hes innocent. .


3. so you think he is still innocent in BW right?because thats what you saying. because he didnt get cought with what you call "100% proof" he got caught based on statistics. you think we need "100% proof" but we dont. so dont come asking "100% proof" not gonna happen.

i only brought up the apm difference because its easy to see the change. playing slow or faster is a change in play no? its an indicator of how the player is playing the game. its not definitive of anything more then the player is playing different. just pointing out that things change based on the scenario that the game was played in. how serious do pros take ladder games? is comparing ladder play to tournament play an effective way to show hacks? thats all im saying is i dont think its enough because their 2 different scenarios, and yes all cases (atleast in the US) dont allow u to use past convictions as evidence that a current and different accusation is. and honestly i wasnt there for his BW career, i have no clue about anything that happened to lead to his conviction of it but i will just have to go with the fact that its a known fact and since he has admitted to it in BW id be a idoit to believe other wise. im not asking for 100% proof im asking for proof beyond a reasonable doubt.


then, what do you expect?
do you expect split marine micro?
do you expect perefect mule timing?
do you expect him to negate every drop and never be caught off-guard?

im sorry to say it but this case is beyond your skill, you are asking for easy hacks he is not that stupid.





actually if he was hacking he shouldnt be caught of guard by drops which believe he was in the Bo7... im asking for something that substantial thats all something concrete, something that is unexplainable that is impossible not improbable.


You're asking for a lot considering we don't have it. We have to go by what we know. What we do know, in sum total, says that his play is not kosher in these series.
Spontaneous Pneumothorax sucks, please keep MVP sC in your thoughts. sC fighting! 힘내세요
Bogeyman
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden307 Posts
June 07 2012 06:20 GMT
#5725
On June 07 2012 14:24 figq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 14:11 Bogeyman wrote:
On June 07 2012 13:33 figq wrote:
The "precog" case really gets me. Replay here:
http://www.sc2-replays.net/en/replays/8460-goldenlight-vs-spades,dual-sight
Watch 7:00-7:30 from Spades vision. He doesn't really see anything with the hellions, I don't think he even sees the count of the cocoons at the natural, because in the replay he spends a hell of a lot time in his base again at this crucial scouting moment. He then immediately declares the all-in of his opponent.

To me this is much stronger evidence than the rest, because he announces his knowledge verbally, not by actions. Whereby his actions could be just random or lucky and not really a sign of knowledge; here he declares his knowledge.

Unless he's used to saying stuff like "all-in / bm" to see how the opponent responds in chat or something, I find it really very difficult to explain, except with some kind of cheat. I hope Spades clarifies later, if possible; to me it makes no sense.

It's strange for sure, but if you follow his camera and base everything on that you'll miss some fine details.
What I'm referring to is the fact that moving across the map by means of e.g. double-clicking a hotkey or using a screen hotkey takes you there instantly while playing. When following his camera in the replay it takes you a little while to get there. During that split second (it might be 0.5 seconds at most, but I haven't tried measuring) he did have vision of all 6 eggs at the natural before moving his hellions back.

Now I agree, it's still weird of him to say what he does. But he could have noticed the eggs and then tries to poke GoldenLight with his comment, to see if he gets any valuable information.

And sorry for everyone who gets angry when anyone tries to defend Spades. I am rather certain that Spades has been hacking, but I won't stay silent when I see a possible explanation in his favor.
Thanks for the comment! Yeah, the slight difference between how vision looks when played automatically from the replay and when actually in-game may be the crux here. In the replay it really makes it look humanly impossible to count the cocoons, but in reality he might have been able to.

Okay. I'm back to undecided then. I've seen the tons of weird fishy stuff, but to me there needs to be really conclusive evidence, otherwise we may very well be cherry-picking and the guy may just have very weird styles of play that make no sense and just as often lead to (deserved) bad outcomes for him, as well. Something like loose-aggressive in poker.

Well, since the pace of the thread seems to be slowing down... a lot of people have probably gone to bed. I suppose I should too, but when I get back I could point out another strong argument that people seem to have forgotten.

Actually, let's just do this now and let it work while I sleep. It's not new, but it's just as suspicious as it always was.

Topic: Seemingly does not care to scout, even when actually scouting.

Map: MLG Daybreak

2:51 - Spades' SCV has been idling in Lucifron's main for a few seconds, so Spades' jumps to it and moves it towards the ramp with one click. He then clicks three times a bit more to the left, which if he let it go all the way there would reveal the 2nd geyser, but he doesn't let it get even close as he immediately sends it to a mineral patch in his main. Is he really that concerned with saving the SCV from a potential depot-block? The marine from Lucifron is a bit ahead of Spades' but there's enough time to check the 2nd gas and get out before the marine gets out. Given the timing of his own marine, this is a reasonable assumption. Lucifron would have to be the wizard of Oz to get his marine out fast enough to kill this marine (or just get a stupidly fast barracks, cutting economy). So wth, why not check the 2nd gas? It's fucking vital information and your SCV is right there, ready to scoot over and let you know. Is the gnome back in your head Spades?

Map: MLG Entombed Valley
~3.10 - SCV enters Lucifron's base, and exits without Spades looking at it. That's weird right? He proceeds by selecting his SCV once it's far outside of the base and sends it home. He doesn't look at what the SCV scouted even once, during or after the SCV scout. Wtf? Sure, he does see on the minimap that there's one gas, but it's really hard to say if he had vision of the 2nd geyser or not (I can't open the replay anymore for some reason... "The launch of this game makes reference to mod of map dependancies which are no longer available" is the message I get when trying. Weird stuff. Maybe Blizzard is hacking? Anyways...) and him not even trying to have a look at it is odd. In fact, Spades is just starting his own 2nd gas at about that time. Why don't you care if Lucifron does the same? Also, you see two buildings that could be barracks or a barracks and a factory. Why not look? Sure, you don't expect 2 barracks, but not even looking at the intel you have available? Has the gnome in your head taken viagra? He's got balls of steel man.

Map: MLG Entombed Valley (vs Theognis)
3:32 - SCV goes up the ramp and walks into Theognis' wall. There's a barracks with a tech-lab visible, and had Spades looked at the right moment he would have seen an SCV moving behind the mineral line at the natural. However he's busy doing stuff in his main at the time. So the SCV keeps going to his last way-point, and Spades wasn't paying attention to see that it got to Theognis' base already. That's pretty sloppy play for a GM-level player, but it could happen. So then you check the ramp to see what was there. Wait what? No, you don't. Spades' gnome doesn't give a shit about what's there. From the minimap there seems to be a building to the right of the barracks, without a (reasonable) doubt an add-on of some kind. What is it? Spades gnome gives zero fucks!
Instead he scans at 5:42, a perfect time to reveal that the building starport will get a tech-lab from the barracks. Coincidence? Might be. Still doesn't explain the rationale of a gnome.

That's enough, I have to sleep now... fucking 8 AM already...
To end on a note regarding the way Spades scouts in these games:
What the hell?!

Enjoy! I'm out.
AngryFarmer
Profile Joined June 2011
United States560 Posts
June 07 2012 06:25 GMT
#5726
On June 07 2012 15:17 Agnosthar wrote:
Confirmed map hacker in Broodwar.
Confirmed stream cheater in SC2.

In my mind he's already done enough that no right thinking team/tournament should be getting involved with this guy.

This is basically the e-sports equivalent of drugs in physical sport, should be zero tolerance here.


I totally agree. I actually dont understand how his bw cheating was tolerable. I learned about Spades in SC2 but was never made aware of his cheating in bw.

On June 07 2012 15:18 Integra wrote:
Will be interesting to see if Spades actually shows up at the tournament since every pro player now thinks or suspects that he cheats and hacks, lol. (The stream cheating is already confirmed, remember?)


There's no way to hack at a live tournament. Everyone would be able to see. I'm also assuming they use the computers at the tournament which most likely wont have the hack installed.
Defacer
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada5052 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-07 06:46:21
June 07 2012 06:32 GMT
#5727
On June 07 2012 15:13 lisward wrote:

I understand that you're probably unhappy with the huge stir and perhaps pre-mature outrage, but this is an outrageous allegation on both sides, whether you believe this is a case of an innocent player being falsely accused, or a professional gamer cheating. Adding to the confusion on both sides is the number of professionals giving their opinions, be it for or against Spades. There is really no other way for the community to react other than in confusion..


Which is why I don't blame the community. As I said earlier, I mostly blame TL for letting it unravel the way they did.

Listen, I don't like hackers, and I certainly don't know or care about Spades in particular. But I think in this case, with an accusation this serious, I think TL could have done a better job in it's response, and how it was moderated.

Let's put it this way: the open discussion about the Transgender Miss Universe had more red ink and revisions in it than this thread.

Even if other pro's, the TL Mods, or whoever is behind the scenes don't like Spades, he still is/was a pro-player with his rep on the line, and deserved the courtesy of being judged by his own peers, before allowing the community to chime in with our two cents.

He at least should get an updated OP!

Integra
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Sweden5626 Posts
June 07 2012 06:32 GMT
#5728
On June 07 2012 15:25 AngryFarmer wrote:
There's no way to hack at a live tournament. Everyone would be able to see. I'm also assuming they use the computers at the tournament which most likely wont have the hack installed.

I was more thinking about the fact that most people, specially the people you will play will believe or suspect you are cheating, and you have to walk around there and talk to them and shit lol. And what happens if he totally bombs out during the opening brackets, how will people react and so forth.
"Dark Pleasure" | | I survived the Locust war of May 3, 2014
StarStrider
Profile Joined August 2011
United States689 Posts
June 07 2012 06:36 GMT
#5729
On June 07 2012 14:38 kineSiS- wrote:

Honestly, I wasn't even directing my words at choice people. Can everyone, including me I suppose, be proud of the fact that they've posted in this thread overall contributing to the detriment of Spades career. Any defense at this point is futile even if it makes an impact.


Right now it seems highly unlikely that he wasn't hacking. But is that absolute/ can't be questioned concrete yet? No.
I'm not proud of my contribution in helping examine evidence that ruined his career yet. But when the evidence keeps piling up and it seems more and more unlikely that these suspicions are all just a random set of coincidences, and we reach the point where not many are left that could still believe he didn't hack, then yes I will be proud if I had a part to play in exposing him, because hackers disgust me, they ruin the fair competition of this game I hold so dear, the competition is everything and if someone is falsely getting ahead by a means other than skill I will be proud til the end of my days to bury his career into the ground. Not saying I know yet that he did it, but based on the extensive studying of the pretty huge amount of evidence I have done I'm already pretty far beyond a reasonable doubt in my own mind, as I have not been shown enough reasonable doubts in comparison to the number of incidences of shadiness.

As Drewbie said, there is no irreperable damage being done here. If Spades were uncannily able to explain every bit of his weird incidents in an undeniably logical way or reproduce on his stream the kind of actions he claims to have made in that series in a comfortable way like he's done it before......if his name was cleared....people would flock to the martyr'd soul like groupies. His name is already 10x more recognized than it ever was and if he were proved to be innocent there is no way people would hold the witch hunt against the innocent victim. They would support him and probably even apologize.
Spontaneous Pneumothorax sucks, please keep MVP sC in your thoughts. sC fighting! 힘내세요
Lysanias
Profile Joined March 2011
Netherlands8351 Posts
June 07 2012 06:38 GMT
#5730
On June 07 2012 15:32 Defacer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 15:13 lisward wrote:

I understand that you're probably unhappy with the huge stir and perhaps pre-mature outrage, but this is an outrageous allegation on both sides, whether you believe this is a case of an innocent player being falsely accused, or a professional gamer cheating. Adding to the confusion on both sides is the number of professionals giving their opinions, be it for or against Spades. There is really no other way for the community to react other than in confusion..


Which is why I don't blame the community. As I said earlier, I mostly blame TL for letting it unravel the way they did.

Listen, I don't like hackers, and I certainly don't know or care about Spades in particular. But I think in this case, with an accusation this serious, I think TL could have done a better job in it's response, and how it was moderated.

Let's put it this way: the open discussion about the Transgender Miss Universe had more red ink and revisions in it than this thread.

Even if other pro's, the TL Mods, or whoever is behind the scenes doesn't like Spades, he still is/was a pro-player with his rep on the line, and deserved the courtesy of being judged by his own peers, before allowing the community to chime in with our two cents.

He at least should get an updated OP!



Out of curiosity, who do you consider his peers then ?
Defacer
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada5052 Posts
June 07 2012 06:39 GMT
#5731
On June 07 2012 15:13 lisward wrote:

Second, I don't understand your problem with this anonymous posting, I'm posting anonymously, you're doing it to, you don't know my identity and I don't know yours and its my right to keep it that way. I've said it before and I've said it again, this has evolved past some 1 post dude making accusations, this is about the community, and a significant number of pro gamers accusing someone of hacking.



I have a problem with the anonymity because the allegation is so serious. And while players endorsed and wanted further discussion about the topic, part of me wonders if that's enough of a reason to allow the public to start picking a player apart.

The players and mods have their own private forum, maybe it should have happened there. Maybe it did happen, it's going on right now, but TL is waiting to make a statement.

For all we know, Spades could be fighting for his reputation somewhere else on a private forum.
StarStrider
Profile Joined August 2011
United States689 Posts
June 07 2012 06:42 GMT
#5732
On June 07 2012 15:18 jacksonlee wrote:
I hope you guys realize how much time you're spending on speculating and arguing to no avail. Because this "discussion" is just hearsay to the mods and officials and even Sapdes until someone comes up with definite proof.


Nope. There are way too many unanswered questionable incidents stacked against him for it to be mere hearsay, even without the 'concrete' proof you desire.
Spontaneous Pneumothorax sucks, please keep MVP sC in your thoughts. sC fighting! 힘내세요
kineSiS-
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Korea (South)1068 Posts
June 07 2012 06:43 GMT
#5733
On June 07 2012 15:36 StarStrider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 14:38 kineSiS- wrote:

Honestly, I wasn't even directing my words at choice people. Can everyone, including me I suppose, be proud of the fact that they've posted in this thread overall contributing to the detriment of Spades career. Any defense at this point is futile even if it makes an impact.


Right now it seems highly unlikely that he wasn't hacking. But is that absolute/ can't be questioned concrete yet? No.
I'm not proud of my contribution in helping examine evidence that ruined his career yet. But when the evidence keeps piling up and it seems more and more unlikely that these suspicions are all just a random set of coincidences, and we reach the point where not many are left that could still believe he didn't hack, then yes I will be proud if I had a part to play in exposing him, because hackers disgust me, they ruin the fair competition of this game I hold so dear, the competition is everything and if someone is falsely getting ahead by a means other than skill I will be proud til the end of my days to bury his career into the ground. Not saying I know yet that he did it, but based on the extensive studying of the pretty huge amount of evidence I have done I'm already pretty far beyond a reasonable doubt in my own mind, as I have not been shown enough reasonable doubts in comparison to the number of incidences of shadiness.

As Drewbie said, there is no irreperable damage being done here. If Spades were uncannily able to explain every bit of his weird incidents in an undeniably logical way or reproduce on his stream the kind of actions he claims to have made in that series in a comfortable way like he's done it before......if his name was cleared....people would flock to the martyr'd soul like groupies. His name is already 10x more recognized than it ever was and if he were proved to be innocent there is no way people would hold the witch hunt against the innocent victim. They would support him and probably even apologize.


Not hating on Drewbie, but progamers aren't know for their intelligence but rather their game playing ability. I highly disagree.

I'm glad that we came to a standstill, but the fact is, there is irreparable damage being done here. Because HE CAN'T explain everything he did. And even if he did, his word is as good as dirt after being condemned and put to the cross but dozens of players. Once people make up their mind, their mind is made.

Have you seen what's happened? He's been kicked off a team for Christ's sake. People, even ex-hackers, deserve better than this. Why do you think there are so many rights to alleged criminals in our legal system. Everyone deserves a chance to defend themselves, even those you consider scum.
Defacer
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada5052 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-07 06:44:33
June 07 2012 06:43 GMT
#5734
On June 07 2012 15:38 Lysanias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 15:32 Defacer wrote:
On June 07 2012 15:13 lisward wrote:

I understand that you're probably unhappy with the huge stir and perhaps pre-mature outrage, but this is an outrageous allegation on both sides, whether you believe this is a case of an innocent player being falsely accused, or a professional gamer cheating. Adding to the confusion on both sides is the number of professionals giving their opinions, be it for or against Spades. There is really no other way for the community to react other than in confusion..


Which is why I don't blame the community. As I said earlier, I mostly blame TL for letting it unravel the way they did.

Listen, I don't like hackers, and I certainly don't know or care about Spades in particular. But I think in this case, with an accusation this serious, I think TL could have done a better job in it's response, and how it was moderated.

Let's put it this way: the open discussion about the Transgender Miss Universe had more red ink and revisions in it than this thread.

Even if other pro's, the TL Mods, or whoever is behind the scenes doesn't like Spades, he still is/was a pro-player with his rep on the line, and deserved the courtesy of being judged by his own peers, before allowing the community to chime in with our two cents.

He at least should get an updated OP!



Out of curiosity, who do you consider his peers then ?


Other players, casters, team managers, teammates ... basically the people that either have to actually work with him or play against him. They're the opinions that should decide whether he plays professionally or not anymore.

In the Western Wolves statement, they basically admitted they weren't sure if they could keep him, regardless of whether or not he was proved to be a hacker. Maybe I'm a softie, but I'd much rather wait a week and find out Western Wolves fired him because they thought he was a filthy hacker. Does that make sense?


kineSiS-
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Korea (South)1068 Posts
June 07 2012 06:44 GMT
#5735
On June 07 2012 14:56 Chessz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 14:38 kineSiS- wrote:
On June 07 2012 11:16 Daniel C wrote:
On June 07 2012 11:01 kineSiS- wrote:
On June 06 2012 16:47 Daniel C wrote:
On June 06 2012 16:40 kineSiS- wrote:
On June 06 2012 16:29 StarStrider wrote:
On June 06 2012 16:20 Silent12ill wrote:
Just out of curiousity why not Spade drop a full replay pack? Wouldn't that either A give more proof he hacks or B help us terrans out. =]


He shared about 100 replays of ladder games that seem clean. Which actually hurt his case since there are multiple distinct differences in mechanics between those and the specific 10+ in question and people were able to compare the two side by side.


Okay look. Assuming that the replay packs and sample are not biased.

Let me give you a rundown using statistics, not opinion, statistics.


A larger sample, will lead to less variation reducing alpha level, and beta, which in turn increases the power of a test. Assuming that the test determines whether or not Spades has hacked. In a smaller sample, there is in turn greater variance. Leading to a greater chance that you could reject the null: Spades has not hacked, and assume the alternative hypothesis.


Honestly, posts like these, IMHO, should have been closed, locked, deleted in any manner by the mods immediately after being posted. It was obviously a hot topic. It obviously had potential to ruin a career, any run of the mill idiot can tell you that. Sure leaving it open fosters debate. But its not true debate, because it is unhealthy and sick. A bunch of keyboard warriors hiding in the basement of their mothers house with thousands of miles separating them from the person they are supposedly confronting.

This has been truly detrimental to his career, and considering that I can speak objectively considering I quit SC2 several months ago (5 to be exact) and have no experience with who this Spades is, am disappointed but not surprised at the actions and reactions of this community of sick people.

A view of a professional is no better than another because in the end, if you presume someone is guilty. Everything else will FULFILL that assumption. Everything you see, that you supposedly are analyzing. The "concrete evidence" is all assumptions based upon ASSUMPTIONS.

Sigh.


OK hotshot. I'm no stats expert but let's say we take 7 random ladder games and the 7 games of the showmatch, and for argument's sake, let's take the average no. of times he clicks into the fog in the ladder games vs. the showmatch games. From earlier analysis of other posters, the number is tens to hundreds of times per game versus ZERO (or close to it) per game in the showmatch. Would a t-test be enough to show that these two means are statistically different? Please enlighten us.

(And no, the alternate hypothesis is that he hacked, which is IMPOSSIBLE to prove, but that there is a significant difference in his camera behaviour in the ladder games and in the showmatch which is CONSISTENT with the use of a camera lock hack).


Look. I'm not sure what your problem is. But I'm not stating that I'm a "hotshot". And please refrain from personal insults, this thread is about Spades from what I gather. You're making arguments against me that on tenants that I never made. Furthermore, whatever you're doing for argument's sake is a ridiculous notion and I never stated that I was for or against the idea that Spades is hacking but rather the irreparable damage this thread has done to his career. Every man deserves the right to his livelihood.


Dude are you trolling us? You call people "sick" and " keyboard warriors hiding in the basement of their mothers house with thousands of miles separating them from the person they are supposedly confronting" and ask others to refrain from person insults? WTF is this.

Thanks for not following the thread at all and admitting your ignorance about the replays and camera hacks. You come in all high-and-mighty educating us about "statistics" - I gave you an example of an issue that multiple pro-gamers considered from the replays to be extremely fishy (FOW peeking) - with a hypothesis that could be tested. If we can show that we can reject the null hypothesis, we have a greater chance of accepting the alternative hypothesis (which is that his fundamental mechanics are different in his ladder games vs. showmatch, which is consistent with the use of a maphack). Geez man, if you're going to talk statistics at least try and be on the same page as everyone else.

"Every man deserves the right to his livelihood" lol...So we have no right to punish people, whatsoever, by this logic? If you're going to throw out ridiculous statements like these at least qualify them so they actually become relevant to our discussion.

EDIT: while we're at it...

A view of a professional is no better than another because in the end, if you presume someone is guilty. Everything else will FULFILL that assumption. Everything you see, that you supposedly are analyzing. The "concrete evidence" is all assumptions based upon ASSUMPTIONS.

This makes no logical sense whatsoever. How did you come to the conclusion that the professionals analyzing the replays had already presumed him to be guilty? OH that's right, you made an ASSUMPTION.


Look. I'm not sure how you can create arguments out of... oh god I'm wasting my time. Nevermind.

And I never said assumptions can't be made. The law of gravity was first started with an assumption. But when assuming someone is guilty prior to analyzing, that analysis IS NO LONGER VALID, especially in situation full of circumstantial and no concrete evidence. Once you assume someone is guilty, in a situation similar to this, everything will fulfill the first assumption unless it is blindingly clear that they are wrong.


here's the thing, why do you think the pros that condemned him assumed he was guilty (other than perhaps recalling a history of hacking, which is a legitimate suspicion)? They've viewed the replays themselves, Catz et. al posted hours in advance that they were planning a stream of the replays, a decision they came to after viewing them in house. So Daniel C was pointing out that you were making an assumption that they entered with a bias or assumed hacking themselves. This we can't be entirely sure is true or not, but they reviewed the evidence. Your stance is asinine because to them and many viewers it was actually blindingly clear that they were correct.. the critical questions still go unanswered. Circumstancial evidence is all we'll have but most (pros) agree in this case that it is enough.


And that's the problem.
Kitchen.Sink
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
26 Posts
June 07 2012 06:45 GMT
#5736
On June 07 2012 15:20 Bogeyman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 14:24 figq wrote:
On June 07 2012 14:11 Bogeyman wrote:
On June 07 2012 13:33 figq wrote:
The "precog" case really gets me. Replay here:
http://www.sc2-replays.net/en/replays/8460-goldenlight-vs-spades,dual-sight
Watch 7:00-7:30 from Spades vision. He doesn't really see anything with the hellions, I don't think he even sees the count of the cocoons at the natural, because in the replay he spends a hell of a lot time in his base again at this crucial scouting moment. He then immediately declares the all-in of his opponent.

To me this is much stronger evidence than the rest, because he announces his knowledge verbally, not by actions. Whereby his actions could be just random or lucky and not really a sign of knowledge; here he declares his knowledge.

Unless he's used to saying stuff like "all-in / bm" to see how the opponent responds in chat or something, I find it really very difficult to explain, except with some kind of cheat. I hope Spades clarifies later, if possible; to me it makes no sense.

It's strange for sure, but if you follow his camera and base everything on that you'll miss some fine details.
What I'm referring to is the fact that moving across the map by means of e.g. double-clicking a hotkey or using a screen hotkey takes you there instantly while playing. When following his camera in the replay it takes you a little while to get there. During that split second (it might be 0.5 seconds at most, but I haven't tried measuring) he did have vision of all 6 eggs at the natural before moving his hellions back.

Now I agree, it's still weird of him to say what he does. But he could have noticed the eggs and then tries to poke GoldenLight with his comment, to see if he gets any valuable information.

And sorry for everyone who gets angry when anyone tries to defend Spades. I am rather certain that Spades has been hacking, but I won't stay silent when I see a possible explanation in his favor.
Thanks for the comment! Yeah, the slight difference between how vision looks when played automatically from the replay and when actually in-game may be the crux here. In the replay it really makes it look humanly impossible to count the cocoons, but in reality he might have been able to.

Okay. I'm back to undecided then. I've seen the tons of weird fishy stuff, but to me there needs to be really conclusive evidence, otherwise we may very well be cherry-picking and the guy may just have very weird styles of play that make no sense and just as often lead to (deserved) bad outcomes for him, as well. Something like loose-aggressive in poker.

Well, since the pace of the thread seems to be slowing down... a lot of people have probably gone to bed. I suppose I should too, but when I get back I could point out another strong argument that people seem to have forgotten.

Actually, let's just do this now and let it work while I sleep. It's not new, but it's just as suspicious as it always was.

Topic: Seemingly does not care to scout, even when actually scouting.

Map: MLG Daybreak

2:51 - Spades' SCV has been idling in Lucifron's main for a few seconds, so Spades' jumps to it and moves it towards the ramp with one click. He then clicks three times a bit more to the left, which if he let it go all the way there would reveal the 2nd geyser, but he doesn't let it get even close as he immediately sends it to a mineral patch in his main. Is he really that concerned with saving the SCV from a potential depot-block? The marine from Lucifron is a bit ahead of Spades' but there's enough time to check the 2nd gas and get out before the marine gets out. Given the timing of his own marine, this is a reasonable assumption. Lucifron would have to be the wizard of Oz to get his marine out fast enough to kill this marine (or just get a stupidly fast barracks, cutting economy). So wth, why not check the 2nd gas? It's fucking vital information and your SCV is right there, ready to scoot over and let you know. Is the gnome back in your head Spades?

Map: MLG Entombed Valley
~3.10 - SCV enters Lucifron's base, and exits without Spades looking at it. That's weird right? He proceeds by selecting his SCV once it's far outside of the base and sends it home. He doesn't look at what the SCV scouted even once, during or after the SCV scout. Wtf? Sure, he does see on the minimap that there's one gas, but it's really hard to say if he had vision of the 2nd geyser or not (I can't open the replay anymore for some reason... "The launch of this game makes reference to mod of map dependancies which are no longer available" is the message I get when trying. Weird stuff. Maybe Blizzard is hacking? Anyways...) and him not even trying to have a look at it is odd. In fact, Spades is just starting his own 2nd gas at about that time. Why don't you care if Lucifron does the same? Also, you see two buildings that could be barracks or a barracks and a factory. Why not look? Sure, you don't expect 2 barracks, but not even looking at the intel you have available? Has the gnome in your head taken viagra? He's got balls of steel man.

Map: MLG Entombed Valley (vs Theognis)
3:32 - SCV goes up the ramp and walks into Theognis' wall. There's a barracks with a tech-lab visible, and had Spades looked at the right moment he would have seen an SCV moving behind the mineral line at the natural. However he's busy doing stuff in his main at the time. So the SCV keeps going to his last way-point, and Spades wasn't paying attention to see that it got to Theognis' base already. That's pretty sloppy play for a GM-level player, but it could happen. So then you check the ramp to see what was there. Wait what? No, you don't. Spades' gnome doesn't give a shit about what's there. From the minimap there seems to be a building to the right of the barracks, without a (reasonable) doubt an add-on of some kind. What is it? Spades gnome gives zero fucks!
Instead he scans at 5:42, a perfect time to reveal that the building starport will get a tech-lab from the barracks. Coincidence? Might be. Still doesn't explain the rationale of a gnome.

That's enough, I have to sleep now... fucking 8 AM already...
To end on a note regarding the way Spades scouts in these games:
What the hell?!

Enjoy! I'm out.


The scouting was one of several circumstantial things that eventually pushed me over the edge and convinced me that Spades had to be hacking. I can't pretend to know how these hacks work: he may be turning it on and off; he may be using a private hack available to only a select few with sophisticated anti-detection features. I gave up looking for direct evidence of a hack, things like magic scans and minimap clicking, because so few of us know how these hacks work.

But, for the love of all that is holy, how in the world can you send an SCV to your opponent's base and never, not even once, check to see what that SCV scouted like Spades did on Entombed Valley? Back when I first started playing the game I was placed in the silver league and I didn't even do that back in silver. Silver. What is the point in sending an SCV if you aren't going to process the information the SCV gathered? He does not check to see if Lucifron had a second gas nor did he check to see what the second building was that was in the process of being built. This is supposed to be a top level NA GM and he doesn't even spend one APM to click a building? He doesn't even bother to steer his SCV to scout a second gas geyser? The scouting in his games is preposterous.
Thinking always ahead, thinking always of trying to do more, brings a state of mind in which nothing is impossible. The moment one gets into the "expert" state of mind a great number of things become impossible. --Henry Ford
lisward
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Singapore959 Posts
June 07 2012 06:46 GMT
#5737
On June 07 2012 15:43 kineSiS- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 15:36 StarStrider wrote:
On June 07 2012 14:38 kineSiS- wrote:

Honestly, I wasn't even directing my words at choice people. Can everyone, including me I suppose, be proud of the fact that they've posted in this thread overall contributing to the detriment of Spades career. Any defense at this point is futile even if it makes an impact.


Right now it seems highly unlikely that he wasn't hacking. But is that absolute/ can't be questioned concrete yet? No.
I'm not proud of my contribution in helping examine evidence that ruined his career yet. But when the evidence keeps piling up and it seems more and more unlikely that these suspicions are all just a random set of coincidences, and we reach the point where not many are left that could still believe he didn't hack, then yes I will be proud if I had a part to play in exposing him, because hackers disgust me, they ruin the fair competition of this game I hold so dear, the competition is everything and if someone is falsely getting ahead by a means other than skill I will be proud til the end of my days to bury his career into the ground. Not saying I know yet that he did it, but based on the extensive studying of the pretty huge amount of evidence I have done I'm already pretty far beyond a reasonable doubt in my own mind, as I have not been shown enough reasonable doubts in comparison to the number of incidences of shadiness.

As Drewbie said, there is no irreperable damage being done here. If Spades were uncannily able to explain every bit of his weird incidents in an undeniably logical way or reproduce on his stream the kind of actions he claims to have made in that series in a comfortable way like he's done it before......if his name was cleared....people would flock to the martyr'd soul like groupies. His name is already 10x more recognized than it ever was and if he were proved to be innocent there is no way people would hold the witch hunt against the innocent victim. They would support him and probably even apologize.


Not hating on Drewbie, but progamers aren't know for their intelligence but rather their game playing ability. I highly disagree.

I'm glad that we came to a standstill, but the fact is, there is irreparable damage being done here. Because HE CAN'T explain everything he did. And even if he did, his word is as good as dirt after being condemned and put to the cross but dozens of players. Once people make up their mind, their mind is made.

Have you seen what's happened? He's been kicked off a team for Christ's sake. People, even ex-hackers, deserve better than this. Why do you think there are so many rights to alleged criminals in our legal system. Everyone deserves a chance to defend themselves, even those you consider scum.

Didn't he leave his own team? Besides, the thing that made everyone really suspicious was the lack of a defense coming from Spades..
Opinions are like phasers -- everybody ought to have one
starcraft911
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Korea (South)1263 Posts
June 07 2012 06:47 GMT
#5738
On June 07 2012 15:32 Integra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 15:25 AngryFarmer wrote:
There's no way to hack at a live tournament. Everyone would be able to see. I'm also assuming they use the computers at the tournament which most likely wont have the hack installed.

I was more thinking about the fact that most people, specially the people you will play will believe or suspect you are cheating, and you have to walk around there and talk to them and shit lol. And what happens if he totally bombs out during the opening brackets, how will people react and so forth.


Even with his hacks he wouldn't stand much chance. I don't think anyone will be shocked.
StarStrider
Profile Joined August 2011
United States689 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-07 06:51:05
June 07 2012 06:50 GMT
#5739
On June 07 2012 15:43 kineSiS- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 15:36 StarStrider wrote:
On June 07 2012 14:38 kineSiS- wrote:

Honestly, I wasn't even directing my words at choice people. Can everyone, including me I suppose, be proud of the fact that they've posted in this thread overall contributing to the detriment of Spades career. Any defense at this point is futile even if it makes an impact.


Right now it seems highly unlikely that he wasn't hacking. But is that absolute/ can't be questioned concrete yet? No.
I'm not proud of my contribution in helping examine evidence that ruined his career yet. But when the evidence keeps piling up and it seems more and more unlikely that these suspicions are all just a random set of coincidences, and we reach the point where not many are left that could still believe he didn't hack, then yes I will be proud if I had a part to play in exposing him, because hackers disgust me, they ruin the fair competition of this game I hold so dear, the competition is everything and if someone is falsely getting ahead by a means other than skill I will be proud til the end of my days to bury his career into the ground. Not saying I know yet that he did it, but based on the extensive studying of the pretty huge amount of evidence I have done I'm already pretty far beyond a reasonable doubt in my own mind, as I have not been shown enough reasonable doubts in comparison to the number of incidences of shadiness.

As Drewbie said, there is no irreperable damage being done here. If Spades were uncannily able to explain every bit of his weird incidents in an undeniably logical way or reproduce on his stream the kind of actions he claims to have made in that series in a comfortable way like he's done it before......if his name was cleared....people would flock to the martyr'd soul like groupies. His name is already 10x more recognized than it ever was and if he were proved to be innocent there is no way people would hold the witch hunt against the innocent victim. They would support him and probably even apologize.


Not hating on Drewbie, but progamers aren't know for their intelligence but rather their game playing ability. I highly disagree.

I'm glad that we came to a standstill, but the fact is, there is irreparable damage being done here. Because HE CAN'T explain everything he did. And even if he did, his word is as good as dirt after being condemned and put to the cross but dozens of players. Once people make up their mind, their mind is made.

Have you seen what's happened? He's been kicked off a team for Christ's sake. People, even ex-hackers, deserve better than this. Why do you think there are so many rights to alleged criminals in our legal system. Everyone deserves a chance to defend themselves, even those you consider scum.


He got kicked off the team/resigned after the majority of the evidence came out and was analyzed. I have to believe that was the team manager's decision based on the evidence he had seen and I'm sure not even a significant portion of his decision was influenced by public opinion (the witch hunt) or the bandwagon of Spades slayers, but rather he looked at the evidence himself and agreed it was enough in his opinion to be damning, especially considering his intimate knowledge of Spades history. I'm sure Spades was given plenty of chance to defend himself in their conversations.
Spontaneous Pneumothorax sucks, please keep MVP sC in your thoughts. sC fighting! 힘내세요
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
June 07 2012 06:52 GMT
#5740
On June 07 2012 15:45 Kitchen.Sink wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2012 15:20 Bogeyman wrote:
On June 07 2012 14:24 figq wrote:
On June 07 2012 14:11 Bogeyman wrote:
On June 07 2012 13:33 figq wrote:
The "precog" case really gets me. Replay here:
http://www.sc2-replays.net/en/replays/8460-goldenlight-vs-spades,dual-sight
Watch 7:00-7:30 from Spades vision. He doesn't really see anything with the hellions, I don't think he even sees the count of the cocoons at the natural, because in the replay he spends a hell of a lot time in his base again at this crucial scouting moment. He then immediately declares the all-in of his opponent.

To me this is much stronger evidence than the rest, because he announces his knowledge verbally, not by actions. Whereby his actions could be just random or lucky and not really a sign of knowledge; here he declares his knowledge.

Unless he's used to saying stuff like "all-in / bm" to see how the opponent responds in chat or something, I find it really very difficult to explain, except with some kind of cheat. I hope Spades clarifies later, if possible; to me it makes no sense.

It's strange for sure, but if you follow his camera and base everything on that you'll miss some fine details.
What I'm referring to is the fact that moving across the map by means of e.g. double-clicking a hotkey or using a screen hotkey takes you there instantly while playing. When following his camera in the replay it takes you a little while to get there. During that split second (it might be 0.5 seconds at most, but I haven't tried measuring) he did have vision of all 6 eggs at the natural before moving his hellions back.

Now I agree, it's still weird of him to say what he does. But he could have noticed the eggs and then tries to poke GoldenLight with his comment, to see if he gets any valuable information.

And sorry for everyone who gets angry when anyone tries to defend Spades. I am rather certain that Spades has been hacking, but I won't stay silent when I see a possible explanation in his favor.
Thanks for the comment! Yeah, the slight difference between how vision looks when played automatically from the replay and when actually in-game may be the crux here. In the replay it really makes it look humanly impossible to count the cocoons, but in reality he might have been able to.

Okay. I'm back to undecided then. I've seen the tons of weird fishy stuff, but to me there needs to be really conclusive evidence, otherwise we may very well be cherry-picking and the guy may just have very weird styles of play that make no sense and just as often lead to (deserved) bad outcomes for him, as well. Something like loose-aggressive in poker.

Well, since the pace of the thread seems to be slowing down... a lot of people have probably gone to bed. I suppose I should too, but when I get back I could point out another strong argument that people seem to have forgotten.

Actually, let's just do this now and let it work while I sleep. It's not new, but it's just as suspicious as it always was.

Topic: Seemingly does not care to scout, even when actually scouting.

Map: MLG Daybreak

2:51 - Spades' SCV has been idling in Lucifron's main for a few seconds, so Spades' jumps to it and moves it towards the ramp with one click. He then clicks three times a bit more to the left, which if he let it go all the way there would reveal the 2nd geyser, but he doesn't let it get even close as he immediately sends it to a mineral patch in his main. Is he really that concerned with saving the SCV from a potential depot-block? The marine from Lucifron is a bit ahead of Spades' but there's enough time to check the 2nd gas and get out before the marine gets out. Given the timing of his own marine, this is a reasonable assumption. Lucifron would have to be the wizard of Oz to get his marine out fast enough to kill this marine (or just get a stupidly fast barracks, cutting economy). So wth, why not check the 2nd gas? It's fucking vital information and your SCV is right there, ready to scoot over and let you know. Is the gnome back in your head Spades?

Map: MLG Entombed Valley
~3.10 - SCV enters Lucifron's base, and exits without Spades looking at it. That's weird right? He proceeds by selecting his SCV once it's far outside of the base and sends it home. He doesn't look at what the SCV scouted even once, during or after the SCV scout. Wtf? Sure, he does see on the minimap that there's one gas, but it's really hard to say if he had vision of the 2nd geyser or not (I can't open the replay anymore for some reason... "The launch of this game makes reference to mod of map dependancies which are no longer available" is the message I get when trying. Weird stuff. Maybe Blizzard is hacking? Anyways...) and him not even trying to have a look at it is odd. In fact, Spades is just starting his own 2nd gas at about that time. Why don't you care if Lucifron does the same? Also, you see two buildings that could be barracks or a barracks and a factory. Why not look? Sure, you don't expect 2 barracks, but not even looking at the intel you have available? Has the gnome in your head taken viagra? He's got balls of steel man.

Map: MLG Entombed Valley (vs Theognis)
3:32 - SCV goes up the ramp and walks into Theognis' wall. There's a barracks with a tech-lab visible, and had Spades looked at the right moment he would have seen an SCV moving behind the mineral line at the natural. However he's busy doing stuff in his main at the time. So the SCV keeps going to his last way-point, and Spades wasn't paying attention to see that it got to Theognis' base already. That's pretty sloppy play for a GM-level player, but it could happen. So then you check the ramp to see what was there. Wait what? No, you don't. Spades' gnome doesn't give a shit about what's there. From the minimap there seems to be a building to the right of the barracks, without a (reasonable) doubt an add-on of some kind. What is it? Spades gnome gives zero fucks!
Instead he scans at 5:42, a perfect time to reveal that the building starport will get a tech-lab from the barracks. Coincidence? Might be. Still doesn't explain the rationale of a gnome.

That's enough, I have to sleep now... fucking 8 AM already...
To end on a note regarding the way Spades scouts in these games:
What the hell?!

Enjoy! I'm out.


The scouting was one of several circumstantial things that eventually pushed me over the edge and convinced me that Spades had to be hacking. I can't pretend to know how these hacks work: he may be turning it on and off; he may be using a private hack available to only a select few with sophisticated anti-detection features. I gave up looking for direct evidence of a hack, things like magic scans and minimap clicking, because so few of us know how these hacks work.

But, for the love of all that is holy, how in the world can you send an SCV to your opponent's base and never, not even once, check to see what that SCV scouted like Spades did on Entombed Valley? Back when I first started playing the game I was placed in the silver league and I didn't even do that back in silver. Silver. What is the point in sending an SCV if you aren't going to process the information the SCV gathered? He does not check to see if Lucifron had a second gas nor did he check to see what the second building was that was in the process of being built. This is supposed to be a top level NA GM and he doesn't even spend one APM to click a building? He doesn't even bother to steer his SCV to scout a second gas geyser? The scouting in his games is preposterous.

Haven't tried any in SC2 but at least in brood war it just removes fog of war basically, giving you full view of everything. However there probably are some hacks also that make the replay look "genuine", for instance removing suspicious clicks of objects that would be inside the FoW. That lack of checking the SCV could be caused by something like that. However, as said, I have no knowledge about SC2 hacks so I can't really say anything about that.

Either way I personally have always hated Spades, he also was a confirmed hacker in SCBW and has always seemed shady to me. I probably am biased, though, but let's just say that if this was true I would be less surprised than if it wasn't.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
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