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07:06 KST - method linked here has been disproved here10:54 KST - Find a full timeline of pro comments (including Spades) in the topic here.08:47 KST - Summary:Accusations of maphacking have the potential to destroy a player's career if left unaddressed. Because of the potential consequences, we should be careful about accepting unproven accusations. The principle of 'innocent until proven guilty' should be applied here. That does not mean that there has been a conclusion about this case, however, which is why this thread remains tentatively open. Please discuss with caution and use evidence to back up your claims. (also a summary post by an unnamed pro on reddit here) |
Spades is actually a mastermind. He is the true creator of this thread, which he secretly loaded on Lucifron's computer to throw off the mods. Just before his first match at mlg, he will stand up and give a very emotional speech proclaiming his innocence on every topic he has been accused of. Of course, he accused himself of all the points so they will be very easy to refute. He intentionally played in a suspicious manner vs Lucifron to put his master plan into motion.
Spades has hired 12 different people to hack into existing teamliquid accounts and continue the discussion regarding his play. He has also responded in a strange manner in order to put as many people against him as he could. This way, when he reveals the truth about his fair play he will be able to play the victim card and gain instant stardom. He will then blame his loss at mlg on unfair emotional trauma, and ask for generous donations to put his gaming career back on the right track.
He has been placing thoughts into his former teammates minds for months through careful and meticulous action. Cheating in BroodWar, faking stream cheating, and appearing to digress in talent have all been part of his multi year plan to rise to the top.
He has the motive. He has the desire. He has tools. He has the history. It all makes sense. Spades might even be Lucifron himself for all we know.
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On June 07 2012 14:27 xNSwarm wrote:
Spades is actually a mastermind. He is the true creator of this thread, which he secretly loaded on Lucifron's computer to throw off the mods. Just before his first match at mlg, he will stand up and give a very emotional speech proclaiming his innocence on every topic he has been accused of. Of course, he accused himself of all the points so they will be very easy to refute. He intentionally played in a suspicious manner vs Lucifron to put his master plan into motion.
Spades has hired 12 different people to hack into existing teamliquid accounts and continue the discussion regarding his play. He has also responded in a strange manner in order to put as many people against him as he could. This way, when he reveals the truth about his fair play he will be able to play the victim card and gain instant stardom. He will then blame his loss at mlg on unfair emotional trauma, and ask for generous donations to put his gaming career back on the right track.
He has been placing thoughts into his former teammates minds for months through careful and meticulous action. Cheating in BroodWar, faking stream cheating, and appearing to digress in talent have all been part of his multi year plan to rise to the top.
He has the motive. He has the desire. He has tools. He has the history. It all makes sense. Spades might even be Lucifron himself for all we know.
In fact, every poster in this thread might just be a figment of Spades imagination :D
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Hacker. Ban him Blizzard. Don't invite him to tournaments.
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2012 14:23 insanet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 14:18 psychotics wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2012 13:36 insanet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
one thing i would like to add to this is i'd like to take a chance to try and give some feedback against the people saying "oh his streamed ladder games he played different then the show match, he must be hacking because no one can change play-styles like that" this is completely false actually. i have watched hundreds of games streamed by players and have also watched hundreds of games by the same players in MLG thru the First person cam view. and i can say that many people would be surprised to know that many players play completely different on stream then in tournaments. DRG for example plays alot slower on ladder then in tournaments same with stephano. theres a notable difference in the APM and speed they play at. in MLG DRG averages something like 350+ apm (i think last time i saw the number was 384) his stream he plays in the mid 200's. does this prove that spades was cheating, no, does it prove he wasn't, no but it does mean that just because his play looked different isnt necessarily evidence against him.
1. so watched hundreds of replays, and the only point you bring up is APM, how low apm is completely different to high apm?, in what way does it change everything?, it doesnt change that much, he probably micro a bit less in ladder, but saying is completely different is false. Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
on another note, innocent till proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, should and must hold true in these type of situations. . 2. sorry but "innocent until proven guilty" doesnt apply to rapers, pedophiles, ex-cheaters, because you have a past. Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:show me a replay where he obviously reacts to something that he could only have known about with hacks (example the protoss maphacker from the thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342704 HRGZack blindly building his mass cannons to defend the allin) show me something that cant be explained away without map hacks and i will gladly take back my defense of spades but as it stands im not convinced. i still think hes innocent. . 3. so you think he is still innocent in BW right?because thats what you saying. because he didnt get cought with what you call "100% proof" he got caught based on statistics. you think we need "100% proof" but we dont. so dont come asking "100% proof" not gonna happen. i only brought up the apm difference because its easy to see the change. playing slow or faster is a change in play no? its an indicator of how the player is playing the game. its not definitive of anything more then the player is playing different. just pointing out that things change based on the scenario that the game was played in. how serious do pros take ladder games? is comparing ladder play to tournament play an effective way to show hacks? thats all im saying is i dont think its enough because their 2 different scenarios, and yes all cases (atleast in the US) dont allow u to use past convictions as evidence that a current and different accusation is. and honestly i wasnt there for his BW career, i have no clue about anything that happened to lead to his conviction of it but i will just have to go with the fact that its a known fact and since he has admitted to it in BW id be a idoit to believe other wise. im not asking for 100% proof im asking for proof beyond a reasonable doubt. then, what do you expect? do you expect split marine micro? do you expect perefect mule timing? do you expect him to negate every drop and never be caught off-guard? im sorry to say it but this case is beyond your skill, you are asking for easy hacks he is not that stupid.
actually if he was hacking he shouldnt be caught of guard by drops which believe he was in the Bo7... im asking for something that substantial thats all something concrete, something that is unexplainable that is impossible not improbable.
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On June 07 2012 11:16 Daniel C wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 11:01 kineSiS- wrote:On June 06 2012 16:47 Daniel C wrote:On June 06 2012 16:40 kineSiS- wrote:On June 06 2012 16:29 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 16:20 Silent12ill wrote:
Just out of curiousity why not Spade drop a full replay pack? Wouldn't that either A give more proof he hacks or B help us terrans out. =] He shared about 100 replays of ladder games that seem clean. Which actually hurt his case since there are multiple distinct differences in mechanics between those and the specific 10+ in question and people were able to compare the two side by side. Okay look. Assuming that the replay packs and sample are not biased. Let me give you a rundown using statistics, not opinion, statistics. A larger sample, will lead to less variation reducing alpha level, and beta, which in turn increases the power of a test. Assuming that the test determines whether or not Spades has hacked. In a smaller sample, there is in turn greater variance. Leading to a greater chance that you could reject the null: Spades has not hacked, and assume the alternative hypothesis. Honestly, posts like these, IMHO, should have been closed, locked, deleted in any manner by the mods immediately after being posted. It was obviously a hot topic. It obviously had potential to ruin a career, any run of the mill idiot can tell you that. Sure leaving it open fosters debate. But its not true debate, because it is unhealthy and sick. A bunch of keyboard warriors hiding in the basement of their mothers house with thousands of miles separating them from the person they are supposedly confronting. This has been truly detrimental to his career, and considering that I can speak objectively considering I quit SC2 several months ago (5 to be exact) and have no experience with who this Spades is, am disappointed but not surprised at the actions and reactions of this community of sick people. A view of a professional is no better than another because in the end, if you presume someone is guilty. Everything else will FULFILL that assumption. Everything you see, that you supposedly are analyzing. The "concrete evidence" is all assumptions based upon ASSUMPTIONS. Sigh. OK hotshot. I'm no stats expert but let's say we take 7 random ladder games and the 7 games of the showmatch, and for argument's sake, let's take the average no. of times he clicks into the fog in the ladder games vs. the showmatch games. From earlier analysis of other posters, the number is tens to hundreds of times per game versus ZERO (or close to it) per game in the showmatch. Would a t-test be enough to show that these two means are statistically different? Please enlighten us. (And no, the alternate hypothesis is that he hacked, which is IMPOSSIBLE to prove, but that there is a significant difference in his camera behaviour in the ladder games and in the showmatch which is CONSISTENT with the use of a camera lock hack). Look. I'm not sure what your problem is. But I'm not stating that I'm a "hotshot". And please refrain from personal insults, this thread is about Spades from what I gather. You're making arguments against me that on tenants that I never made. Furthermore, whatever you're doing for argument's sake is a ridiculous notion and I never stated that I was for or against the idea that Spades is hacking but rather the irreparable damage this thread has done to his career. Every man deserves the right to his livelihood. Dude are you trolling us? You call people "sick" and " keyboard warriors hiding in the basement of their mothers house with thousands of miles separating them from the person they are supposedly confronting" and ask others to refrain from person insults? WTF is this. Thanks for not following the thread at all and admitting your ignorance about the replays and camera hacks. You come in all high-and-mighty educating us about "statistics" - I gave you an example of an issue that multiple pro-gamers considered from the replays to be extremely fishy (FOW peeking) - with a hypothesis that could be tested. If we can show that we can reject the null hypothesis, we have a greater chance of accepting the alternative hypothesis (which is that his fundamental mechanics are different in his ladder games vs. showmatch, which is consistent with the use of a maphack). Geez man, if you're going to talk statistics at least try and be on the same page as everyone else. "Every man deserves the right to his livelihood" lol...So we have no right to punish people, whatsoever, by this logic? If you're going to throw out ridiculous statements like these at least qualify them so they actually become relevant to our discussion. EDIT: while we're at it... Show nested quote +
A view of a professional is no better than another because in the end, if you presume someone is guilty. Everything else will FULFILL that assumption. Everything you see, that you supposedly are analyzing. The "concrete evidence" is all assumptions based upon ASSUMPTIONS.
This makes no logical sense whatsoever. How did you come to the conclusion that the professionals analyzing the replays had already presumed him to be guilty? OH that's right, you made an ASSUMPTION.
Look. I'm not sure how you can create arguments out of... oh god I'm wasting my time. Nevermind.
Honestly, I wasn't even directing my words at choice people. Can everyone, including me I suppose, be proud of the fact that they've posted in this thread overall contributing to the detriment of Spades career. Any defense at this point is futile even if it makes an impact.
And yes, you have no right to punish him. You call me condescending, yet you come with an attitude that is stubborn and biased to a point of futility. The pertinent parties should deal with this. And if the outcome is that he hacks, it should be released after the matter is settled by people not limited to, the affected parties including: Spades' team, Lucifron and others.
I never came in high and mighty. But yes, I was giving proper education on Statistics that people OBVIOUSLY lack. Are you saying that offering information is condescending. Then let's just burn down Harvard University, because as the # 1 ranked university in the United States, it is the source of all condescension, arrogance and the epitome of evil, ain't it?
And I never said assumptions can't be made. The law of gravity was first started with an assumption. But when assuming someone is guilty prior to analyzing, that analysis IS NO LONGER VALID, especially in situation full of circumstantial and no concrete evidence. Once you assume someone is guilty, in a situation similar to this, everything will fulfill the first assumption unless it is blindingly clear that they are wrong.
The human mind is quite powerful. Do you know that everything you hear is affected by what you see? McGurk effect, look it up. Just by seeing something, you can hear something completely different or at least partially different than what was intended.
Please be educated prior to entering an argument. And you've been pathetically trying to use statistics in some other posts I've seen, so don't act like me utilizing statistics is some form of condescension or arrogance. Although, I do think I'm better than you. Lol.
Can you honestly say this:
On June 07 2012 14:31 NoisyNinja wrote:
Hacker. Ban him Blizzard. Don't invite him to tournaments.
Is an opinion that is helping to resolve the situation. Really? And you are surprised by my response when at least 90% of the comments are LIKE THAT?
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Honestly, i don't give a fuck if spades hacks or not. At the end of the day, all i care about is the LAN result. We can't catch every hacker in this game. So why bother wasting our time going in circles and instead let's PLAY THE FUCKING GAME. Let them accumulate some pocket change while the best go to the bank.
Just a lulz: Spades still lost (assuming hax)
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On June 07 2012 12:31 canikizu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 12:28 StarStrider wrote:On June 07 2012 12:27 artanis2 wrote:On June 07 2012 12:24 Telcontar wrote:
I'm all for second chances, but not 3rd and onwards. I hope Spades stays away from competitive gaming for good. We'll all get to laugh when he loses in round one of MLG this weekend... I doubt he'll actually go after all this. Why would you want to put yourself through that kind of embarrassment for missing fans and a peer group that despises you? And the death threat.
It seems like Spades has supporters.
1) Bring back the TL hacker database
2)Focus your ire on people who are more clearly hackers, like HRGZack
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On June 07 2012 14:22 lisward wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 14:16 Defacer wrote:On June 07 2012 14:05 Valikyr wrote:On June 07 2012 13:58 Arush wrote:
You guys not really comparing this whole thing to murder cases come on... lets get serious a bit here... Was going to say the same thing. The only comparisation that could possibly be made is performing enhancing drugs in sports. But that's not the same either because we don't have a court. We only have a community that does not want cheaters to earn money from hard-working honest professional gamers. If someone might be hacking it HAS to be investigated. People have accused Nerchio of hacking because of his great online results but since zero evidence exists to back that up noone believes he actually does hack and his reputation is undamaged. In the case of Spades it was extremely obvious that he did hack from the replays. I felt sorry for Orb for what the community did. I felt sorry for Destiny too but in the case of Spades I feel a sense of justice. I don't feel sorry for Orb and Destiny at all. In both cases, there was concrete proof. And ultimately, the community didn't decide or choose what the consequences would be. EG Alex basically decided Orb didn't meet his personal standards, while Destiny decided it would be easier to walk away from Quantic then change his behaviour or draw negative attention to them. Again, I don't think Spades is innocent. But I'd almost prefer if a team, tournament or other players came out and said, "We think Spades is a hacker, for reasons A, B, C, and this is why he'll never play in X tournament." It's like they expect the community to punish or shame the player out of existence, when they have the power to ban people from tournaments, provide better officiating to deter map hacking, fire players etc. For example, we can all think that Ron Artest is a goon and a peice of shit and should never play basketball again. But it's not our job or responsibility to decide if he plays, or what punishment he deserves. It's the team, the league, his peers, the sponsors. Why does it feel like we're doing the dirty work here? With your logic, Spades left his team of his own will. If you actually took the time and effort to read the thread before barraging it with posts, you would know that players did come out and call Spares guilty, many players. No one here is doing any 'dirty work', people here are just arguing whether Spades is guilty or not. You seem like someone with a point to prove, what is that, may I ask?
1) That giving the community an open forum to investigate serious allegations about a player, before other players and their own teams get a fair chance to do so, is potentially harmful to all players and teams. This seems like a silly risk.
2) That having an 'open investigation' or kangaroo court, which includes a flood of good and bad analysis, is unfair to the accused and their team, considering the seriousness of the allegation. It also encourages a mob mentality and bad analysis, and damages a player's reputation before there is any conclusive evidence of wrongdoing.
3) That allowing a person to post anonymously, without explanation or further contribution, has never met TL standards before so why would it now? Should Spades have the right to know who his accuser is?
4) That teams, tournaments and players are ultimately responsible for policing themselves. And frankly, it doesn't matter if we think he's guilty of hacking. They'll decide whether the evidence is good enough and what the consequences will be, ultimately. So what good is it to have us speculating about it? Sure there's some great contributions, but also a lot of noise, half-baked evidence, and outright falsehoods.
Fair enough?
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On June 07 2012 14:37 psychotics wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2012 14:23 insanet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 14:18 psychotics wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2012 13:36 insanet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
one thing i would like to add to this is i'd like to take a chance to try and give some feedback against the people saying "oh his streamed ladder games he played different then the show match, he must be hacking because no one can change play-styles like that" this is completely false actually. i have watched hundreds of games streamed by players and have also watched hundreds of games by the same players in MLG thru the First person cam view. and i can say that many people would be surprised to know that many players play completely different on stream then in tournaments. DRG for example plays alot slower on ladder then in tournaments same with stephano. theres a notable difference in the APM and speed they play at. in MLG DRG averages something like 350+ apm (i think last time i saw the number was 384) his stream he plays in the mid 200's. does this prove that spades was cheating, no, does it prove he wasn't, no but it does mean that just because his play looked different isnt necessarily evidence against him.
1. so watched hundreds of replays, and the only point you bring up is APM, how low apm is completely different to high apm?, in what way does it change everything?, it doesnt change that much, he probably micro a bit less in ladder, but saying is completely different is false. Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:
on another note, innocent till proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, should and must hold true in these type of situations. . 2. sorry but "innocent until proven guilty" doesnt apply to rapers, pedophiles, ex-cheaters, because you have a past. Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:show me a replay where he obviously reacts to something that he could only have known about with hacks (example the protoss maphacker from the thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342704 HRGZack blindly building his mass cannons to defend the allin) show me something that cant be explained away without map hacks and i will gladly take back my defense of spades but as it stands im not convinced. i still think hes innocent. . 3. so you think he is still innocent in BW right?because thats what you saying. because he didnt get cought with what you call "100% proof" he got caught based on statistics. you think we need "100% proof" but we dont. so dont come asking "100% proof" not gonna happen. i only brought up the apm difference because its easy to see the change. playing slow or faster is a change in play no? its an indicator of how the player is playing the game. its not definitive of anything more then the player is playing different. just pointing out that things change based on the scenario that the game was played in. how serious do pros take ladder games? is comparing ladder play to tournament play an effective way to show hacks? thats all im saying is i dont think its enough because their 2 different scenarios, and yes all cases (atleast in the US) dont allow u to use past convictions as evidence that a current and different accusation is. and honestly i wasnt there for his BW career, i have no clue about anything that happened to lead to his conviction of it but i will just have to go with the fact that its a known fact and since he has admitted to it in BW id be a idoit to believe other wise. im not asking for 100% proof im asking for proof beyond a reasonable doubt. then, what do you expect? do you expect split marine micro? do you expect perefect mule timing? do you expect him to negate every drop and never be caught off-guard? im sorry to say it but this case is beyond your skill, you are asking for easy hacks he is not that stupid. actually if he was hacking he shouldnt be caught of guard by drops which believe he was in the Bo7... im asking for something that substantial thats all something concrete, something that is unexplainable that is impossible not improbable.
"Sometimes you need to just let DT kill all your probes" TT1. Spades can't make it obvious that he is hacking. Of course he isn't going to stop every single drop, but the fact that he knows things that he should not be able to know in the games, that he went from low masters to 1#GM in the blink of unstreamed eye, and that his former teammates have accused him of streamcheating then it should be obvious that he hacks.
Yes, we didn't catch him with the gun in his hand but at times this is the best you can do. And really, it is pretty conclusive.
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On June 07 2012 14:37 psychotics wrote:
actually if he was hacking he shouldnt be caught of guard by drops which believe he was in the Bo7... im asking for something that substantial thats all something concrete, something that is unexplainable that is impossible not improbable.
You should listened to what TT1 said, if you are hacker and you know DTs are coming you have to fake it been surprised, you have to fake been surprised by drops, otherwise you would get caught instantly. we are talking about an ex-cheater that was very good at faking he maphacked. he even turned on - off the hacks several times to fool observers.
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so is climbing the ladder now proof of hacks?
+ Show Spoiler +"Sometimes you need to just let DT kill all your probes" TT1. Spades can't make it obvious that he is hacking. Of course he isn't going to stop every single drop, but the fact that he knows things that he should not be able to know in the games, that he went from low masters to 1#GM in the blink of unstreamed eye, and that his former teammates have accused him of streamcheating then it should be obvious that he hacks.
to follow the gun in his hand metaphor, i dont even see a gun anywhere lol
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On June 07 2012 14:50 psychotics wrote:so is climbing the ladder now proof of hacks? + Show Spoiler +"Sometimes you need to just let DT kill all your probes" TT1. Spades can't make it obvious that he is hacking. Of course he isn't going to stop every single drop, but the fact that he knows things that he should not be able to know in the games, that he went from low masters to 1#GM in the blink of unstreamed eye, and that his former teammates have accused him of streamcheating then it should be obvious that he hacks. to follow the gun in his hand metaphor, i dont even see a gun anywhere lol
Look, I get that many people in this thread think that some are going overboard in their claims regarding Spades being a hacker. Some people might be overstating the evidence. But that doesn't justify completely ignoring the evidence and denying that any suspicion is justified.
I feel like both sides are a little overboard. Some people overstating the case, and mixing faulty evidence together with more legitimate points. Then others see this and respond in a purely defensive matter, responding to the faulty evidence and acting like no suspicions are warranted. Both are being irrational.
As an example, there are many uninformed athiests that use faulty reasoning in their arguments against theism. This isn't a mark against atheism, but a mark against those specific people. Sorry for the charged example, but it's all I can think of at the moment.
Or this. If someone says the sky is blue because it was revealed to them through their imaginary friend, that doesn't make the claim false. Sure, shutting down poor arguments for something is useful in a limited way, but you must contend with the strongest claims, not the weakest.
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On June 07 2012 14:38 kineSiS- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 11:16 Daniel C wrote:On June 07 2012 11:01 kineSiS- wrote:On June 06 2012 16:47 Daniel C wrote:On June 06 2012 16:40 kineSiS- wrote:On June 06 2012 16:29 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 16:20 Silent12ill wrote:
Just out of curiousity why not Spade drop a full replay pack? Wouldn't that either A give more proof he hacks or B help us terrans out. =] He shared about 100 replays of ladder games that seem clean. Which actually hurt his case since there are multiple distinct differences in mechanics between those and the specific 10+ in question and people were able to compare the two side by side. Okay look. Assuming that the replay packs and sample are not biased. Let me give you a rundown using statistics, not opinion, statistics. A larger sample, will lead to less variation reducing alpha level, and beta, which in turn increases the power of a test. Assuming that the test determines whether or not Spades has hacked. In a smaller sample, there is in turn greater variance. Leading to a greater chance that you could reject the null: Spades has not hacked, and assume the alternative hypothesis. Honestly, posts like these, IMHO, should have been closed, locked, deleted in any manner by the mods immediately after being posted. It was obviously a hot topic. It obviously had potential to ruin a career, any run of the mill idiot can tell you that. Sure leaving it open fosters debate. But its not true debate, because it is unhealthy and sick. A bunch of keyboard warriors hiding in the basement of their mothers house with thousands of miles separating them from the person they are supposedly confronting. This has been truly detrimental to his career, and considering that I can speak objectively considering I quit SC2 several months ago (5 to be exact) and have no experience with who this Spades is, am disappointed but not surprised at the actions and reactions of this community of sick people. A view of a professional is no better than another because in the end, if you presume someone is guilty. Everything else will FULFILL that assumption. Everything you see, that you supposedly are analyzing. The "concrete evidence" is all assumptions based upon ASSUMPTIONS. Sigh. OK hotshot. I'm no stats expert but let's say we take 7 random ladder games and the 7 games of the showmatch, and for argument's sake, let's take the average no. of times he clicks into the fog in the ladder games vs. the showmatch games. From earlier analysis of other posters, the number is tens to hundreds of times per game versus ZERO (or close to it) per game in the showmatch. Would a t-test be enough to show that these two means are statistically different? Please enlighten us. (And no, the alternate hypothesis is that he hacked, which is IMPOSSIBLE to prove, but that there is a significant difference in his camera behaviour in the ladder games and in the showmatch which is CONSISTENT with the use of a camera lock hack). Look. I'm not sure what your problem is. But I'm not stating that I'm a "hotshot". And please refrain from personal insults, this thread is about Spades from what I gather. You're making arguments against me that on tenants that I never made. Furthermore, whatever you're doing for argument's sake is a ridiculous notion and I never stated that I was for or against the idea that Spades is hacking but rather the irreparable damage this thread has done to his career. Every man deserves the right to his livelihood. Dude are you trolling us? You call people "sick" and " keyboard warriors hiding in the basement of their mothers house with thousands of miles separating them from the person they are supposedly confronting" and ask others to refrain from person insults? WTF is this. Thanks for not following the thread at all and admitting your ignorance about the replays and camera hacks. You come in all high-and-mighty educating us about "statistics" - I gave you an example of an issue that multiple pro-gamers considered from the replays to be extremely fishy (FOW peeking) - with a hypothesis that could be tested. If we can show that we can reject the null hypothesis, we have a greater chance of accepting the alternative hypothesis (which is that his fundamental mechanics are different in his ladder games vs. showmatch, which is consistent with the use of a maphack). Geez man, if you're going to talk statistics at least try and be on the same page as everyone else. "Every man deserves the right to his livelihood" lol...So we have no right to punish people, whatsoever, by this logic? If you're going to throw out ridiculous statements like these at least qualify them so they actually become relevant to our discussion. EDIT: while we're at it...
A view of a professional is no better than another because in the end, if you presume someone is guilty. Everything else will FULFILL that assumption. Everything you see, that you supposedly are analyzing. The "concrete evidence" is all assumptions based upon ASSUMPTIONS.
This makes no logical sense whatsoever. How did you come to the conclusion that the professionals analyzing the replays had already presumed him to be guilty? OH that's right, you made an ASSUMPTION. Look. I'm not sure how you can create arguments out of... oh god I'm wasting my time. Nevermind. And I never said assumptions can't be made. The law of gravity was first started with an assumption. But when assuming someone is guilty prior to analyzing, that analysis IS NO LONGER VALID, especially in situation full of circumstantial and no concrete evidence. Once you assume someone is guilty, in a situation similar to this, everything will fulfill the first assumption unless it is blindingly clear that they are wrong.
here's the thing, why do you think the pros that condemned him assumed he was guilty (other than perhaps recalling a history of hacking, which is a legitimate suspicion)? They've viewed the replays themselves, Catz et. al posted hours in advance that they were planning a stream of the replays, a decision they came to after viewing them in house. So Daniel C was pointing out that you were making an assumption that they entered with a bias or assumed hacking themselves. This we can't be entirely sure is true or not, but they reviewed the evidence. Your stance is asinine because to them and many viewers it was actually blindingly clear that they were correct.. the critical questions still go unanswered. Circumstancial evidence is all we'll have but most (pros) agree in this case that it is enough.
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Let's just all pretend to agree Spades is guilty.
The more interesting discussion is where do the players, teams, tournaments and TL go from here.
If there's another suspected hacker, how should it be handled? Is Catz the defacto judge of who is hacking or who's not?
What should or could online tournaments do to deter hacking?
What can players do? Should they demand certain playing conditions? (ex. the period that Huk refused to play live streamed online tournaments -- people thought he was just being difficult but he looks like genius in hindsight)
Meh.
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Those offscreen scans to me seem the weirdest off all. Like some one else said humans are creatures of habbit, in most streaming games he never uses the minimap for a scan (and people say he is not using the hack in those) he never used the minimap, but like all pro's the scrolling instead.
I don't know it's kinda starting to stack against him here, the truth will come out now the microscoop is on him one way or the other.
For him i just hope he's got Gosu senses and will in fact go to MLG (or any upcoming lan) and show he's got the balls and skill to wipe all this away.
The future will tell.
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On June 07 2012 14:03 psychotics wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2012 13:47 StarStrider wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:40 psychotics wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 07 2012 13:32 StarStrider wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 13:20 psychotics wrote:one thing i would like to add to this is i'd like to take a chance to try and give some feedback against the people saying "oh his streamed ladder games he played different then the show match, he must be hacking because no one can change play-styles like that" this is completely false actually. i have watched hundreds of games streamed by players and have also watched hundreds of games by the same players in MLG thru the First person cam view. and i can say that many people would be surprised to know that many players play completely different on stream then in tournaments. DRG for example plays alot slower on ladder then in tournaments same with stephano. theres a notable difference in the APM and speed they play at. in MLG DRG averages something like 350+ apm (i think last time i saw the number was 384) his stream he plays in the mid 200's. does this prove that spades was cheating, no, does it prove he wasn't, no but it does mean that just because his play looked different isnt necessarily evidence against him. on another note, innocent till proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, should and must hold true in these type of situations. show me a replay where he obviously reacts to something that he could only have known about with hacks (example the protoss maphacker from the thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342704 HRGZack blindly building his mass cannons to defend the allin) show me something that cant be explained away without map hacks and i will gladly take back my defense of spades but as it stands im not convinced. i still think hes innocent. Maybe Zack just felt like the opponent was going to do it, or knew what their particular playstyle on that map was, or he saw something that we aren't aware of, or he just made an awful play and it happened to get lucky and work, or xyz? Since this is the type of response that continues to be given to wildly justify insane coincidence decisions from Spades, I'll not bother providing the multitude of examples again. The reason you are so quick to write off Spades' decisions is because he hasn't been caught with a definitive blink hack proof yet. Yet, there are some things that happen in Spades games that are just as much lucky coincidence as some things in Zack games. give me a break u cant write off zacks play as lucky coincidence. if u actualy watch the game you'd see that he had 0 vision of anything that could have hinted in the slightest to the attack coming, random lucky chance can happen ill give u that, sure he could have just thrown down the cannons for no reason and got lucky but come on get real hes a GM player thats not something that a GM player just does, but thats has nothing to do with Spades play i have yet to see anything as blatantly obvious that makes me feel that without a reasonable doubt Spades cheated. i dont care if he cheated in BW that holds on baring on the present. show me a something that is blatant and obvious and ill will take back my statements in Spades defense "if u actualy watch the game you'd see that he had 0 vision of anything that could have hinted in the slightest to the attack coming, random lucky chance can happen ill give u that" Hmmm now where have I heard this before. Ah yes, in pros giving their take on the incidents of Spades. It's the same scenario. It's the same kind of random chances with the same kind of uncannily bad play that actually turns out to be an amazing blind reaction. its pretty easy to take part of a sentence out of context and completely change the meaning. but like i said zacks games irrelevant and i only brought them up as a clear obvious example of hacking when i look at the stuff being provided nothing in spades play that i have seen yet is obvious enough
Then my point that you only judge Zack's fishy play as fishy enough not to be excused by blind luck or bad play excuses because you saw a blink hack with it still stands.
Spades' play exhibits the same inconsistencies and blind coincidences, coincidences that straight up don't happen in his normal ladder games. But because there was no smoking gun of a blink hack, people write them off as if they are marginal when in fact they are just as telling as zack's weird decisions based on zero info gathered.
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On June 07 2012 14:48 insanet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 14:37 psychotics wrote:
actually if he was hacking he shouldnt be caught of guard by drops which believe he was in the Bo7... im asking for something that substantial thats all something concrete, something that is unexplainable that is impossible not improbable. You should listened to what TT1 said, if you are hacker and you know DTs are coming you have to fake it been surprised, you have to fake been surprised by drops, otherwise you would get caught instantly. we are talking about an ex-cheater that was very good at faking he maphacked. he even turned on - off the hacks several times to fool observers.
Still going through every replay very slowly, but I just had to say that much of what TT1, and his group said was on the fly, so they did not have much time to think about what they said.
However yes a large amount of what they said was good stuff but to many people are using this “he cannot stop every action/drop or it would be suspicious, and because he didn’t THAT is suspicious” way of thinking, that line of thought is not plausible.
Shakuras plateau replay during Catz stream
TT1 says “let the DT’s kill you because you can’t make it obvious”
“let the drop hit because you cannot make it obvious” So… Mid game Spades is under some pressure, he has to press, and click a large amount of buttons to continue macro, and micro. However he has the frame of mind to see the drop, and restrain himself from stopping it. Maybe he does have great self control, and a great mind. A hacker needs that from what TT1 and Catz believe.
So at the start of that exact same game, under no pressure just cruising along, it slips Spades mind…. Annnnnd he scans a lucky scan right at LucifroN’s base while his scouting SCV is at the centre of the map. They say “oh yeah look far to lucky he is hacking, that amount of luck is suspicious” WAIT a minute I thought Spades was so smart he was not suppose to do anything suspicious like this? TT1 said it “sometimes you just need to let DT kill all your probes” so Spades brain went for a walk, and he forgot he shouldn’t do anything suspicious?
They cannot apply the thought of “he has to let some stuff happen” to one situation, and not the next.
Look at that same situation in a different light “he scanned but wait if he was hacking, he would not be that stupid, every hacker knows you have to be careful or you will be caught so he shouldn’t do that scan, just the fact he did that scan, leads me to believe it was a lucky move, and was not a hack”
Same line of thought can also prove him to be innocent. Every angle should be viewed.
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On June 07 2012 14:42 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 14:22 lisward wrote:On June 07 2012 14:16 Defacer wrote:On June 07 2012 14:05 Valikyr wrote:On June 07 2012 13:58 Arush wrote:
You guys not really comparing this whole thing to murder cases come on... lets get serious a bit here... Was going to say the same thing. The only comparisation that could possibly be made is performing enhancing drugs in sports. But that's not the same either because we don't have a court. We only have a community that does not want cheaters to earn money from hard-working honest professional gamers. If someone might be hacking it HAS to be investigated. People have accused Nerchio of hacking because of his great online results but since zero evidence exists to back that up noone believes he actually does hack and his reputation is undamaged. In the case of Spades it was extremely obvious that he did hack from the replays. I felt sorry for Orb for what the community did. I felt sorry for Destiny too but in the case of Spades I feel a sense of justice. I don't feel sorry for Orb and Destiny at all. In both cases, there was concrete proof. And ultimately, the community didn't decide or choose what the consequences would be. EG Alex basically decided Orb didn't meet his personal standards, while Destiny decided it would be easier to walk away from Quantic then change his behaviour or draw negative attention to them. Again, I don't think Spades is innocent. But I'd almost prefer if a team, tournament or other players came out and said, "We think Spades is a hacker, for reasons A, B, C, and this is why he'll never play in X tournament." It's like they expect the community to punish or shame the player out of existence, when they have the power to ban people from tournaments, provide better officiating to deter map hacking, fire players etc. For example, we can all think that Ron Artest is a goon and a peice of shit and should never play basketball again. But it's not our job or responsibility to decide if he plays, or what punishment he deserves. It's the team, the league, his peers, the sponsors. Why does it feel like we're doing the dirty work here? With your logic, Spades left his team of his own will. If you actually took the time and effort to read the thread before barraging it with posts, you would know that players did come out and call Spares guilty, many players. No one here is doing any 'dirty work', people here are just arguing whether Spades is guilty or not. You seem like someone with a point to prove, what is that, may I ask? 1) That giving the community an open forum to investigate serious allegations about a player, before other players and their own teams get a fair chance to do so, is potentially harmful to all players and teams. This seems like a silly risk. 2) That having an 'open investigation' or kangaroo court, which includes a flood of good and bad analysis, is unfair to the accused and their team, considering the seriousness of the allegation. It also encourages a mob mentality and bad analysis, and damages a player's reputation before there is any conclusive evidence of wrongdoing. 3) That allowing a person to post anonymously, without explanation or further contribution, has never met TL standards before so why would it now? Should Spades have the right to know who his accuser is? 4) That teams, tournaments and players are ultimately responsible for policing themselves. And frankly, it doesn't matter if we think he's guilty of hacking. They'll decide whether the evidence is good enough and what the consequences will be, ultimately. So what good is it to have us speculating about it? Sure there's some great contributions, but also a lot of noise, half-baked evidence, and outright falsehoods. Fair enough?
Well first, team liquid is a forum meant for discussion of things relevant to Starcraft, as such these allegations can and should be discussed.
Second, I don't understand your problem with this anonymous posting, I'm posting anonymously, you're doing it to, you don't know my identity and I don't know yours and its my right to keep it that way. I've said it before and I've said it again, this has evolved past some 1 post dude making accusations, this is about the community, and a significant number of pro gamers accusing someone of hacking.
Third, this is an open forum, it's a place where people discuss, there's going to be speculation, people saying dumb stuff, people saying intelligent stuff. Western wolves, his team, have already investigates this 'issue' and they basically said that Spades is innocent, so in that case should we just not talk about this and believe them? Now that Spades isn't in a team, who do we go to, to 'decide' if he's innocent or not? Honestly speaking I doubt tournament organizers or Western Wolves have enough expericence in this field to know whether or not he really was cheating; the only people who do, are people who have actual, high level, experience with Starcraft 2, such as professional gamers or casters, and if these tournament organizers or teams were serious about such allegations they would consult such people.
I understand that you're probably unhappy with the huge stir and perhaps pre-mature outrage, but this is an outrageous allegation on both sides, whether you believe this is a case of an innocent player being falsely accused, or a professional gamer cheating. Adding to the confusion on both sides is the number of professionals giving their opinions, be it for or against Spades. There is really no other way for the community to react other than in confusion..
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On June 07 2012 14:54 zefreak wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 14:50 psychotics wrote:so is climbing the ladder now proof of hacks? + Show Spoiler +"Sometimes you need to just let DT kill all your probes" TT1. Spades can't make it obvious that he is hacking. Of course he isn't going to stop every single drop, but the fact that he knows things that he should not be able to know in the games, that he went from low masters to 1#GM in the blink of unstreamed eye, and that his former teammates have accused him of streamcheating then it should be obvious that he hacks. to follow the gun in his hand metaphor, i dont even see a gun anywhere lol Look, I get that many people in this thread think that some are going overboard in their claims regarding Spades being a hacker. Some people might be overstating the evidence. But that doesn't justify completely ignoring the evidence and denying that any suspicion is justified. I feel like both sides are a little overboard. Some people overstating the case, and mixing faulty evidence together with more legitimate points. Then others see this and respond in a purely defensive matter, responding to the faulty evidence and acting like no suspicions are warranted. Both are being irrational. As an example, there are many uninformed athiests that use faulty reasoning in their arguments against theism. This isn't a mark against atheism, but a mark against those specific people. Sorry for the charged example, but it's all I can think of at the moment. Or this. If someone says the sky is blue because it was revealed to them through their imaginary friend, that doesn't make the claim false. Sure, shutting down poor arguments for something is useful in a limited way, but you must contend with the strongest claims, not the weakest.
This man speaks the truth.
And people should quit asking to close the thread. It's not like Spades is under arrest or anything. We can discuss this stuff while he ladders.
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EPT
