EPTPreviously we had been looking at the ladder from the top down rather than the bottom up, but it's all relative of course. We had to use the top as a baseline because our methods used the top 200 values week to week with the offsets all filtered out. Realistically speaking, the higher your league/division in the ladder, the more of a penalty your points take.
How to calculate your MMR from results of 1 match - Page 4
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Excalibur_Z
United States12237 Posts
Previously we had been looking at the ladder from the top down rather than the bottom up, but it's all relative of course. We had to use the top as a baseline because our methods used the top 200 values week to week with the offsets all filtered out. Realistically speaking, the higher your league/division in the ladder, the more of a penalty your points take. | ||
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Not_That
287 Posts
On April 26 2012 19:05 aintthatfunny wrote: Am I doing this correct? Beat a GM dude who had 350 pts and 9 bonus pool, he lost 11 points, found a dude in my division with 0 wins, had 196 bonus pool, so: 350+430+9-196+11 = 604 -11+24 = 13 13 corresponds to 16/48 So my MMR would be between 620 and 652*? Yes, you're doing it right. On April 26 2012 19:41 Delta-V wrote: I don't get it, you say that the blue column on the right of that table is the opponent's adjusted points minus your mmr, right? so blue = oppAdj - mmr this would mean that mmr = oppAdj - blue Then you say to get the mmr you add the opponents adjusted points to those values (blue). this would mean that mmr = oppAdj + blue which is not the same as above. What am I missing? This is what's confusing you. I said The bars are the results of inputting the opponent adjusted points and amount of points gained/lost into my F function candidate. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough, but the values displayed on the graph are the result of my proposed F applied to opponent adj points and the amount of points he got for winning. I hope this makes it clearer. I slept on this and I realize there's a problem with my data gathering methodology (it's amazing how much you can accomplish lying in bed). It has been the cause of some of the strange results, particularly the ones that are related to +23 points games. I'll use an example of what I mean: Let's say FoPǂChimaira played the day before I collected data against player B, and Chimaira won. I looked into B's profile and saw that B lost 12 points. Since then B played 10 more games, winning 5 of them. In those 10 games, B gained 80 points and lost 110, so +80 - 110 = -30. Since B lost 30 points since his game with Chimaira, I add 30 to B's current points (his points at the time of me looking, let's say 300), add B's unspent bonus pool (let's say 0). So I end up with: 300: B's current points +30: B's (negative) points change since after his match with Chimaira. Since B lost 30, we add 30 to compensate. +0: B's unspent bonus pool +12: The amount of points B lost to Chimaira = 342 If at the time of me gathering all data points the current total bonus pool for the server was 180, I then do 342-180=162 to find out B's adjusted points at the time of his beginning of the game against Chimaira (well, not quite, you'll see soon why). This is wrong however, here's why: Let's look at two scenarios. For calculation's sake, let's say the server gained 20 bonus pool points since Chimaira and B played. Server total BP at the time of Chimaira and B match: 160 B points at the time of him playing Chimaira: Scenario A: Ladder points: 322 Unspent bonus pool: 20 B adj points: 322+20-160=182 Scenario B: Ladder points: 322 Unspent bonus pool: 0 B adj points: 322-160=162 In scenario A, player B gained 40 adjusted points in his 5 wins. In scenario B, he gained 60 adjusted points in his 5 wins. If we try to look into the B's match history we have no way of knowing which of the two scenarios took place. The two scenarios are indistinguishable looking at B's match history the day after his match with Chimaira happened. Basically, out of the 5 games and +80 points that B won since then, we have no way of knowing whether 20 of those points are bonus pool points (the 20 points the server received since then), or 40 (same 20 points plus 20 B had initially). We basically can't determine B's adjusted points retroactively. This raises a big problem with all the data I've gathered. I thought of ways to circumvent this by watching Chimaira's match history live over a day. He (or someone who plays similar amount) probably plays enough games for this to work, but tedious. Then I thought I might as well use my own games. I'm a Master player with adjusted points in the area of 220, fairly similar to Chimaira's and meet the occasional Diamond as well. It'll be tough playing the necessary amount of games, but I'll have the added benefit of being able to ask my opponents how many adj points they get for the win when they beat me, and some may even answer. Also I'll always be up to date on when there's a new game entry. But then I thought this is completely unnecessary. Some people have been keeping close tabs on their game history for months. Just get one of those of a player in Master league and use his data. I may already have such a data base of a friend of mine in low Master I could use, but may as well ask here hopefully someone in mid Master+ has been keeping excel sheet of his matches that is willing to let me use. I'm looking for a player's history data that contains the following: - Amount of points opponent gained/lost for match with him - Opponent adjusted points prior (or following) the match. Alternatively, Opponent ladder points and unspent bonus pool and total server bonus pool at the time of the match, which allow a calculation of opponent adjusted points. There will almost always be a small uncertainty in case opponent wins how many of his points are bonus pool points and how many are adjusted. Consequently there will usually be a small uncertainty in those games about opponent win amount and opponent adjusted points prior to the match in games where opponent wins. - Opponent league Bonus: player's own adj points prior to match and adj points change from his match. The matches need to be consecutive with no gaps in between. In the meanwhile I'll have a look into my friend's stats see if they contain everything needed. Edit: Nope the data base of my friend does not contain opponent points change from the match. Still looking for database. | ||
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TiDragOnflY
Netherlands130 Posts
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Delta-V
New Zealand43 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:10 Not_That wrote: This is what's confusing you. I said The bars are the results of inputting the opponent adjusted points and amount of points gained/lost into my F function candidate. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough, but the values displayed on the graph are the result of my proposed F applied to opponent adj points and the amount of points he got for winning. I hope this makes it clearer. Sorry, I wasn't talking about the bar graph, I was talking about this: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ob0Jr.png) and this: Add to your opponent adjusted points before the match the matching values from the right rows, and that's your MMR within 32 points range. And how they don't match up. I'm pretty sure that "opponent's adj points minus your mmr" should read "your mmr minus opponent's adj points" | ||
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Not_That
287 Posts
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3DGlaDOS
Germany607 Posts
On April 26 2012 13:52 Gofarman wrote: Sounds like this is something SC2 Gears should get all over. YEAHHHHH would defenately be cool if it was implemented :D | ||
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Mendelfist
Sweden356 Posts
Don't forget to "enable macros" if you open it. http://www.lysator.liu.se/~john/history.zip | ||
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Snoodles
401 Posts
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xsnac
Barbados1365 Posts
On April 26 2012 13:52 AGIANTSMURF wrote: so much work to find MMR, people should just accept that when they are ACTIVE that their displayed points is relatively close to what their MMR is i dont mean to discredit OP's work, this is an awesome post. I just think people focus too much time and energy worrying about stuff like this whats the problem ? i bet if he likes numbers or math he enjoy doing this kind of stuff . thanks for this awesome thread op  | ||
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StarGalaxy
Germany744 Posts
What i wanted to ask is: in what reagard is the MMR a better messurement of skill than the current points->global rank with some assumptions like all spend bonus pool, decent amount of games played? What i can think of now is: You can watch your MMR history and see your development. That would be pretty bad ass. Looking forward to the tool then. If i understand it correctly the displayed point system is inflated so it only shows your skill relative to others. That means a good messurement of your skill would be the global rank you are which you can look up at sc2ranks.com. That's the best meassurement of skill there is out there atm imho. The only problem with it is that if you or a lot of other people have bonus pool left. | ||
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dala
Sweden477 Posts
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spancho
United States161 Posts
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Stropheum
United States1124 Posts
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Amyris
United Kingdom77 Posts
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iTzSnypah
United States1738 Posts
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TemujinGK
United States483 Posts
Thanks | ||
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Gyro_SC2
Canada540 Posts
I have a smurf account. I'm silver and I beat diamond player, platinium player. How can I know my MMR? The adjusted points is different for all the league ? | ||
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iTzSnypah
United States1738 Posts
I calculated my MMR and his MMR after a game. For me I got 64-96. For him I got. 144-176. Does this mean I'm a Tier below him? + Show Spoiler [Data] + I won. I gained +17 (+rest of bonus which was 9) He lost -15 He had 176 adjusted points. [282total 0bonus -121total bonus for season +15what he lost] I had 19 adjusted points. [157total 0bonus -121total bonus for season -17what I won] | ||
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Greenei
Germany1754 Posts
shouldn't it be the other way around? if I have SICK MMR and he has shitty points then adj-MMR is highly negative, hence he should get many points/lose not many. do you btw. know the exact value of MMR-limit? i want to know how far i am to playing stephano and such. | ||
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Not_That
287 Posts
On April 27 2012 04:44 Greenei wrote: "Find the matching row with the amount of points he gained here:...adj-mmr" shouldn't it be the other way around? if I have SICK MMR and he has shitty points then adj-MMR is highly negative, hence he should get many points/lose not many. do you btw. know the exact value of MMR-limit? i want to know how far i am to playing stephano and such. ty corrected. I have no idea what is the MMR limit, though I've seen Excalibur_Z mention 3000 as a theorized value. On April 27 2012 04:42 iTzSnypah wrote: Ok so I'm diamond and I played a game against another diamond. I calculated my MMR and his MMR after a game. For me I got 64-96. For him I got. 144-176. Does this mean I'm a Tier below him? + Show Spoiler [Data] + I won. I gained +17 (+rest of bonus which was 9) He lost -15 He had 176 adjusted points. [282total 0bonus -121total bonus for season +15what he lost] I had 19 adjusted points. [157total 0bonus -121total bonus for season -17what I won] I don't think you can know from these stats alone. Thinking of the top of my head, I will say this: You gained 17 while he would have gained 9 (24-15). To me this indicates your adjusted points are (17-9)*32 =256 behind his IF we assume for a moment (an unreasonable assumption) that your mmr = his mmr. Under this assumption, in order to compare you to him by adjusted points we would have to add 256 to your adjusted points. your 19+256=275 to his 176. This would put you with a division modifier roughly 99 points higher than his, or roughly a tier and a half below his. By this alone I would put you between a tier and two lower than your opponent. Keep in mind the assumption that your mmr = his mmr is probably not true, especially with the recent changes to the matchmaking system. On April 27 2012 04:18 Gyro_SC2 wrote: hi, I have a smurf account. I'm silver and I beat diamond player, platinium player. How can I know my MMR? The adjusted points is different for all the league ? Yes, it is. | ||
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