EPTYou also say that "as expected, MMR changes more rapidly than adjusted points". This raises a small warning flag for me, because I came to the opposite conclusion here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12182693
How to calculate your MMR from results of 1 match - Page 2
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Mendelfist
Sweden356 Posts
You also say that "as expected, MMR changes more rapidly than adjusted points". This raises a small warning flag for me, because I came to the opposite conclusion here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12182693 | ||
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Not_That
287 Posts
On April 26 2012 16:32 Mendelfist wrote: There seems to be an underlying assumption here that your opponents points have converged to his MMR. Otherwise I can't see it working. Example: Your points: 500: Your MMR 500. Your opponents points: 100. Your opponents MMR: 500. The match is even but if your opponent loses he will lose 0 points. Your formula would give your MMR = 500 + 368 = 868 which is wrong. Not the case. It would give your MMR = between 100+368 and 100+infinity, which is accurate. The nice thing about it is that your opponent's points don't have to match his MMR or anything. For all you care, you could be playing against an opponent who is playing his first Starcraft 2 match ever. Your opponent is only used as a proxy for measuring your MMR against his adjusted points which are well known. On April 26 2012 16:32 Mendelfist wrote: You also say that "as expected, MMR changes more rapidly than adjusted points". This raises a small warning flag for me, because I came to the opposite conclusion here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12182693 I agree I was careless with that statement. Your graph makes a valid point that this is not necessarily the case. Though I gotta wonder if Blizzard did not implement the entire points system to obfuscate a wildly fluctuating MMR, I have no idea what was their motivation for doing so. | ||
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Eurytos
Singapore97 Posts
Also it looks similar to the regression courses I took in math! Keep up the good work!  | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Not_That
287 Posts
On April 26 2012 16:29 Excalibur_Z wrote: Potentially we could learn what the MMR cap is if this holds up. Is it 3000 like previously thought? Finding out the division offsets is a little more difficult because they muddy things up a lot. With enough data points, though, it's possible. I started that 12/12 project (a large spreadsheet with the primary goal of identifying league and division offsets for pairs of players who win +12 and -12 [or +13/-11, +14/-10, etc.]) last year which did help narrow down the slope, but there were also a lot of outliers as a result of division offsets for leagues below Master. For example, if you have a +12/-11 game (meaning the point gain difference was 1 point) and the point difference before that game was 32, that could either mean that the two players are in the same division tier or are within 1 tier of each other. I'm unfamiliar with the number 3000, not sure where it's from. I think you're going to have a hard time using the 12/12 method to find league modifiers nowadays ever since Blizzard changed the matchmaking parameters. I suggest an alternative solution which I mentioned a few posts above: Find out a Master player's MMR before a match using what I describe in the OP. If you can infer by analyzing enough games / estimate his post match MMR, and in the subsequent match he is facing a Diamond player, then you can use the same F formula to extract the Diamond player's adjusted points taking the Master's MMR as a given. This should tell you the Diamond league tier right away, with accuracy which depend only on how accurate your initial estimation of the Master player MMR was. Seeing as how the difference between Diamond tiers is 63 points, you will be hard pressed to be off by more than a single tier. If you are able to do this between Master and Diamond, then you can work your way backwards from Master league, going one league at a time and populating leagues and divisions with their modifiers compared to the last known point from above. It's a lot of work, and depends on your ability to approximate a player's MMR post match from his MMR pre match, but on the bright side you're no longer dependant on 12/12 at all. You could use any match whatsoever (well, not 24/0...) | ||
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Mendelfist
Sweden356 Posts
On April 26 2012 17:05 Not_That wrote: Not the case. It would give your MMR = between 100+368 and 100+infinity, which is accurate. The nice thing about it is that your opponent's points don't have to match his MMR or anything. For all you care, you could be playing against an opponent who is playing his first Starcraft 2 match ever. Your opponent is only used as a proxy for measuring your MMR against his adjusted points which are well known. Yes, you are right. I was reading carelessly. | ||
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OzRe
Israel31 Posts
thanks | ||
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ThatGuyDoMo
Australia516 Posts
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BronzeKnee
United States5226 Posts
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mrtomjones
Canada4020 Posts
 Nice | ||
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Firesilver
United Kingdom1190 Posts
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eScaper-tsunami
Canada313 Posts
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aintthatfunny
193 Posts
Beat a GM dude who had 350 pts and 9 bonus pool, he lost 11 points, found a dude in my division with 0 wins, had 196 bonus pool, so: 350+430+9-196+11 = 604 -11+24 = 13 13 corresponds to 16/48 So my MMR would be between 620 and 652*? | ||
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Piy
Scotland3152 Posts
Good work though, must have taken ages :/ | ||
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Nyast
Belgium554 Posts
On April 26 2012 19:05 aintthatfunny wrote: Beat a GM dude who had 350 pts and 9 bonus pool, he lost 11 points, found a dude in my division with 0 wins, had 196 bonus pool, so: 350+430+9-196+11 = 604 -11+24 = 13 13 corresponds to 16/48 So my MMR would be between 620 and 650? Edit.: ah right the 430 is the master's offset, sounds about right then. | ||
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memcpy
United States459 Posts
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syriuszonito
Poland332 Posts
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Delta-V
New Zealand43 Posts
so blue = oppAdj - mmr this would mean that mmr = oppAdj - blue Then you say to get the mmr you add the opponents adjusted points to those values (blue). this would mean that mmr = oppAdj + blue which is not the same as above. What am I missing? | ||
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Gyoza
Sweden45 Posts
All the Diamond tiers are in comparison to Master MMR, but within what interval is the master league MMR? Grandmaster: One Tier Master: One Tier Diamond: 7 Tiers - Tier 1: +150 from Master - Tier 2: +213 from Master - Tier 3: +276 from Master - Tier 4: +339 from Master - Tier 5: +402 from Master - Tier 6: +465 from Master - Tier 7: +528 from Master Platinum: 3 Tiers, unknown offset Gold: 2 Tiers, unknown offset Silver: 3 Tiers, unknown offset per tier Bronze: 7 Tiers, unknown point offset per tier | ||
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Avean
Norway449 Posts
Hope you release a tool soon. | ||
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