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How to calculate your MMR from results of 1 match - Page 17

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Hirawin
Profile Joined June 2012
1 Post
June 20 2012 15:53 GMT
#321
Which makes me sad, how couldn't I get into diamond with 200 AP at plat tier S division in neither account


Same for me. If I understand well the ladder mechanism, I had 152 AP at plat tier S division. And I stay Plat again.

I thinks, this is only because the edge of each league are changing at the end of each season (or maybe everytime) because of the 20% population rules by leagues.

And the edge to get into Diamond raise a little to high this season.

The main possible reasons is (I think) a lot of bronze/silver/gold/plat players becomes inactive players.

Larkin
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
United Kingdom7161 Posts
June 20 2012 18:45 GMT
#322
Well detailed post and all, but one thing, this:

but if you wish to tell whether or not you improve as a player it is meaningless.


Why do we need a number to tell us if we've improved as a player or not? Surely only we know when we feel we've improved, which is then reflected in tournament progression, ladder win rates, and how we win? Since anyone can 4gate/3rax/6pool to masters (or above).
https://www.twitch.tv/ttalarkin - streams random stuff, high level teamleague, maybe even heroleague
nojok
Profile Joined May 2011
France15845 Posts
June 23 2012 18:03 GMT
#323
When looking at the mmr stats in SC2 gear, we should hope promotion once we reach the middle of the next badge? I'm in plat & my MMR is 1687 line separating diamond from plat is 1540 & seprating diamond from masters is 1990, so I should be promoted when I'm at 1775 or there is no real rule to be promoted?
"Back then teams that won were credited, now it's called throw. I think it's sad." - Kuroky - Flap Flap Wings!
Disastorm
Profile Joined January 2008
United States922 Posts
June 23 2012 19:46 GMT
#324
does this thread still apply since blizzard has loosened the matchmaking system?
"Don't worry so much man. There won't be any more zergs left to QQ. Lots of QQ about TvT is incoming though I bet." - Vrok 9/21/10
Not_That
Profile Joined April 2011
287 Posts
June 24 2012 07:20 GMT
#325
On June 24 2012 04:46 Disastorm wrote:
does this thread still apply since blizzard has loosened the matchmaking system?


Nothing discussed in this thread has changed.


On June 24 2012 03:03 nojok wrote:
When looking at the mmr stats in SC2 gear, we should hope promotion once we reach the middle of the next badge? I'm in plat & my MMR is 1687 line separating diamond from plat is 1540 & seprating diamond from masters is 1990, so I should be promoted when I'm at 1775 or there is no real rule to be promoted?


Promotion should come when your average MMR has stablized within a tier in the next league, or has passed into two leagues up, whichever comes first.
Not_That
Profile Joined April 2011
287 Posts
July 19 2012 18:24 GMT
#326
I've rewritten the OP to succinctly and clearly explain what we discovered about the ladder system so that new comers won't have to search through 17 pages. From now on I can simply direct people to the OP.
etherealfall
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia476 Posts
July 30 2012 15:54 GMT
#327
How many games do you mean by stabilized?
skeldark
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany2223 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-13 13:17:37
August 13 2012 13:17 GMT
#328
On July 31 2012 00:54 etherealfall wrote:
How many games do you mean by stabilized?


From the experience of my users i would say 4-10 games in this area but this is only a guess.

We don't know the real algorithm for it yet. The stabilized function is the last open question.
Save gaming: kill esport
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-13 14:51:21
August 13 2012 14:39 GMT
#329
On August 13 2012 22:17 skeldark wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2012 00:54 etherealfall wrote:
How many games do you mean by stabilized?


From the experience of my users i would say 4-10 games in this area but this is only a guess.

We don't know the real algorithm for it yet. The stabilized function is the last open question.

Regarding personal experience and some others that I know I would say stabilization often requires much more games than that. Of course the data collected by the MMR plugin may generally say otherwise and would provide much more accurate info.

Pre-v1.5 (SC2) for at least 2 people (or 3) I know it took 10-20 matches (usually closer to 10) to rise to masters after their MMR rose over the 'master line' (and stayed over) shown in the tool. But the master league has only one skill tier. It may take much more games to rise to other leagues that have more skill tiers. For which I have a personal example: In the end of season 7 I had bad last two days with my EU random account. My MMR dropped just below diamond line (little less than 1500) and was placed in platinum. After my MMR rose over diamond line it took around 65 games before I was promoted. For 45 first games MMR changed quite a lot inside range of ~180 MMR points (after 32 games it dropped near or just below 'diamond line' for few games). The promotion to diamond finally happened when my MMR according to the tool had been for 18 games inside range of 60 MMR points (avg for those 18 games was ~1650).

Skeldark & NotThat: Have you taken a look of data collected by the MMR tool regarding promotions? It would be interesting to get more info how long it generally takes for promotion after people rise over league barriers and is there often a visible stabilization period like in my example. Also after SC2 v.1.5 there have been lots of promotion reports in TL, Bnet forums and some other SC2 communities (and some MMR tool users claim that their MMR points just reached (moving average would be slower) the promotion line or were little lower when promotion happened). I have a feeling that promotion offsets for different leagues could have been lowered, but I have no solid data to back this up. Is there a visible surge of new promotions in data collected by the MMR tool after v.1.5?
skeldark
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany2223 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-13 14:59:29
August 13 2012 14:51 GMT
#330
On August 13 2012 23:39 korona wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 13 2012 22:17 skeldark wrote:
On July 31 2012 00:54 etherealfall wrote:
How many games do you mean by stabilized?


From the experience of my users i would say 4-10 games in this area but this is only a guess.

We don't know the real algorithm for it yet. The stabilized function is the last open question.

Regarding personal experience and some others that I know I would say stabilization often requires much more games than that. Of course the data collected by the MMR plugin may generally say otherwise and would provide much more accurate info.

Pre-SC2-1.5 for at least 2 people (or 3) I know it took 10-20 matches (usually closer to 10) to rise to masters after their MMR rose over the 'master line' (and stayed over) shown in the tool. But the master league has only one skill tier. It may take much more games to rise to other leagues that have more skill tiers. For which I have a personal example: In the end of season 7 I had bad last two days with my EU random account. My MMR dropped just below diamond line (little less than 1500) and was placed in platinum. After my MMR rose over diamond line it took around 65 games before I was promoted. For 45 first games MMR changed quite a lot inside range of ~180 MMR points (after 32 games it dropped near or just below 'diamond line' for few games). The promotion to diamond finally happened when my MMR according to the tool had been for 18 games inside range of 60 MMR points (avg for those 18 games was ~1650).

Skeldark & NotThat: Have you taken a look of data collected by the MMR tool regarding promotions? It would be interesting to get more info how long it generally takes for promotion after people rise over league barriers and is there often a visible stabilization period like in my example. Also after SC2 v.1.5 there have been lots of promotion reports in TL, Bnet forums and some other SC2 communities (and some MMR tool users claim that their MMR points just reached (moving average would be slower) the promotion line or were little lower when promotion happened). I have a feeling that promotion offsets for different leagues could have been lowered, but I have no solid data to back this up. Is there a visible surge of new promotions in data collected by the MMR tool after v.1.5?

I looked into the promotion problem but not very deep. I have all the data but never thought about a way to analyse it.
I could write an analyser who checks the gamecount in an area before an promotion. But this is a lot of work and im busy at the moment.I only upadate my tool with bugfixes and stuff i can program in 1 h.

Promotion lines are a guess by us any ways. We guess : promotion line is T0 offset +73.
We can not back this up but we think its a good guess because the way the system works this would make sense.

The offsets could have changed a little bit ( not big i would notice that ) .
I agree its time to calculate the offsets again. We have way more data by now.
i can watch all users at the moment but dont calculate data over all users at once (only for my race-avgmmr value.)
This kind of analyse is normally NTs part. However he is busy at the moment healing me from headcrubs in "Alien Swarm "
Save gaming: kill esport
Not_That
Profile Joined April 2011
287 Posts
August 13 2012 20:10 GMT
#331
I am at a point where I feel comfortable saying "I'm X MMR player" rather than "League Y player with X MMR". To me by now league promotion lines are entirely irrelevant. Skill is best described by MMR rather than league anyway. What's the difference if you're 2023 MMR player in Diamond or 2023 MMR player in Master?

I realize many players still don't speak the MMR lingo and don't use the tool or even know about it. TBH, they should. The league system gives almost no information. I cringe whenever I hear a player describe himself as "top X" or "rank 5" in his league. Usually he doesn't even realize how meaningless that is (especially so if they go "I got promoted into rank 4 in my new league"). It's not his fault either, it's the way the system was built. I try to introduce as many players as I can to the MMR tool.

Regarding possible change of tiers offsets recently, that is something I'll look into, because that affects much more important things in the tool than league promotion lines, that affects the calculation process itself.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12237 Posts
August 14 2012 00:24 GMT
#332
On August 14 2012 05:10 Not_That wrote:
I am at a point where I feel comfortable saying "I'm X MMR player" rather than "League Y player with X MMR". To me by now league promotion lines are entirely irrelevant. Skill is best described by MMR rather than league anyway. What's the difference if you're 2023 MMR player in Diamond or 2023 MMR player in Master?

I realize many players still don't speak the MMR lingo and don't use the tool or even know about it. TBH, they should. The league system gives almost no information. I cringe whenever I hear a player describe himself as "top X" or "rank 5" in his league. Usually he doesn't even realize how meaningless that is (especially so if they go "I got promoted into rank 4 in my new league"). It's not his fault either, it's the way the system was built. I try to introduce as many players as I can to the MMR tool.

Regarding possible change of tiers offsets recently, that is something I'll look into, because that affects much more important things in the tool than league promotion lines, that affects the calculation process itself.


But I went from rank 3 in my old league and was demoted to rank 9 in my new league! Why wouldn't it at least put me in rank 1? I was rank 3 before, now it's saying I'm worse than a rank 3 in this lower league?

Also I ended one season at rank 2 in my league but then I played my inter-season placement match and now I'm rank 96??? That is so not fair!
Moderator
skeldark
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany2223 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-14 02:06:40
August 14 2012 01:54 GMT
#333
On August 14 2012 09:24 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 14 2012 05:10 Not_That wrote:
I am at a point where I feel comfortable saying "I'm X MMR player" rather than "League Y player with X MMR". To me by now league promotion lines are entirely irrelevant. Skill is best described by MMR rather than league anyway. What's the difference if you're 2023 MMR player in Diamond or 2023 MMR player in Master?

I realize many players still don't speak the MMR lingo and don't use the tool or even know about it. TBH, they should. The league system gives almost no information. I cringe whenever I hear a player describe himself as "top X" or "rank 5" in his league. Usually he doesn't even realize how meaningless that is (especially so if they go "I got promoted into rank 4 in my new league"). It's not his fault either, it's the way the system was built. I try to introduce as many players as I can to the MMR tool.

Regarding possible change of tiers offsets recently, that is something I'll look into, because that affects much more important things in the tool than league promotion lines, that affects the calculation process itself.


But I went from rank 3 in my old league and was demoted to rank 9 in my new league! Why wouldn't it at least put me in rank 1? I was rank 3 before, now it's saying I'm worse than a rank 3 in this lower league?

Also I ended one season at rank 2 in my league but then I played my inter-season placement match and now I'm rank 96??? That is so not fair!

By all joke.
I did not even think about how the system looks to someone without any background-knowledge, that 1:1 believes the information .
The average TL guy knows at least a little bit (mostly because of you).

In the beginning i did not like it because it doing a bad task: hiding information and show you fake information.
By now i think it even do a bad job in executing this bad task.
The only thing that they wanted and that works flawless is :
Most players think they are way higher than they are.
What is to be honest kind of an achievement.
Its not so easy to tell one group the same lie and after that, most of the group think they are the top of the group.
"I am top in points in the list" and "If i just play more i would be the guy in top of the list, i was it before"

Save gaming: kill esport
VanGarde
Profile Joined July 2010
Sweden755 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-25 20:08:54
August 25 2012 20:08 GMT
#334
I really don't understand this addon, it keeps changing my older stats as I go, yesterday I won against a master toss (I am diamond) and I got a huge boost in mmr. Today not only has my entire graph been shifted down 100 mmr but the win against the master toss has now changed into a 40 mmr loss. How can I lose mmr if I win against a player of several hundred mmr more than me.
War does not determine who is right - only who is left.
Fossa
Profile Joined July 2011
United States67 Posts
August 29 2012 18:03 GMT
#335
hmmm 1993 is average master promotion, the game previous to the one i just won says my mmr is 1972
T0fuuu
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Australia2275 Posts
October 12 2012 12:38 GMT
#336
This thing is eerily accurate at least for me.

I started this season as Platinum zerg after playing terran since the beginning of the year. Was just promoted 2 games ago to diamond. Rank 14 312 points in my new league.

[image loading]
pAnatiC
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany123 Posts
December 27 2012 17:00 GMT
#337
[image loading]
looks a bit strange today?
Jumped from ~2450 to 2750 with 3 games after update?!
JKM
Profile Joined November 2011
Denmark419 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-05 04:12:28
December 28 2012 21:14 GMT
#338
I had something very similar, although another error occurred some time ago (at the same time as the jump in MMR)

- My opponents MMR was seen as exactly the same as my own for a couple of weeks (fixed after yesterdays update).
- Yesterday it suddenly decided to increase my MMR by ~300 points (jumping back to the point where mine and my opponents MMR coincided for 50 games in a row).

[image loading]


EDIT:

Any way to reset the MMR it calculates? It keeps jumping up and down, so I'm not sure what my true MMR is when it will increase or decrease 100-300 randomly -_-.
1338, one upping 1337
Neyfaerie
Profile Joined September 2021
1 Post
September 10 2021 13:13 GMT
#339
Hi guys, I am quite confused as to how the offset values are determined / whether they are still a factor in the equation after the season 9 patch. Would be very happy to get an answer from y'all
Seeker *
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
Where dat snitch at?37033 Posts
September 10 2021 14:41 GMT
#340
On September 10 2021 22:13 Neyfaerie wrote:
Hi guys, I am quite confused as to how the offset values are determined / whether they are still a factor in the equation after the season 9 patch. Would be very happy to get an answer from y'all

Hello. Please open a new thread. This one is very old and outdated.
ModeratorPeople ask me, "Seeker, what are you seeking?" My answer? "Sleep, damn it! Always sleep!"
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