How to calculate your MMR from results of 1 match - Page 6

On April 27 2012 07:23 SDream wrote:
BTW, it seems that the "zero" for the bronze-diamond leagues (at least) is not zero, but a number between 80 and 112, so keep that in mind when calculating your MMR, everyone gets 80-112 points for "free" and the system think that it is some kind of "zero", so you are platinum and won against a bronze, silver, gold, it doesn't matter, you will get 15 points!

If you could help me confirm what I just said, it would be helpful. I confirmed it existed for a bronze-level that was placed at platinum friend of mine and it would make sense if bronze-plat, probably diamonds would all have it. But I didn't confirm anything. <3

And that's it, thanks for your effort, these numbers will help me, specially with this new system ^^

On April 27 2012 02:06 Mendelfist wrote:
I know this isn't what you are looking for, but this is my complete match history, about 1500 games (zipped excel file). Unfortunately I'm not in master league, but maybe you or someone else can squeeze out some interesting information from it.

Don't forget to "enable macros" if you open it.

http://www.lysator.liu.se/~john/history.zip

On April 27 2012 11:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
i'm sure lots of people would greatly appreciate it if someone were to work this into a plugin for sc2gears

On April 27 2012 09:25 Excalibur_Z wrote:


I'm still not sold on that. I think the system just places you conservatively.

On April 26 2012 20:54 MShaw006 wrote:


I think you're right. It appears to be completely mislabeled, as are the rest of the graphs.

The 'blue' to which you refer appears to be "your MMR" - "opponent adjusted points".

OP did great work, but these graphs are a trainwreck.

Graph 1: This was completely confusing. Neither axis is labeled in-graph or in-text. It took guesswork after finishing the whole post to figure out that the x-axis is "points the opponent stood to win (that is, 'points actually won' or 'points lost + 24')" and the y-axis is "opponent points - mmr". OP just throws in "playerXhigh" and "playerXlow", and never explains what those mean.

Graph 2: As stated, the label of the blue section should be "MMR minus opponent's adjusted points".

Graph 3: As confusing as the first graph. Zero labels, and zero mention anywhere of what each axis is.

Graph 4: OP calls the y-axis "Adjusted points in Master league". That tells us absolutely nothing. If you were to talk about the "adjusted points in Master league" with someone, would they have any idea what you're talking about? No. It should be "Opponent adjusted points". That's the terminology used in the rest of the post; it's extremely confusing to see different terminology here.

Graph 5: The line denoting FoPǂChimaira's adjusted points is simply given the label "adjusted points", the same label as the y-axis. This problem would mostly be solved if the y-axis were already labeled "Opponent adjusted points", but why not call it "FoPǂChimaira's adjusted points"? OP shouldn't worry that FoPǂChimaira's data won't be an opponent's adjust points; he already explained that he was overlaying his data on the previous graph. Also, the legend indicates that blue bars denote MMR, with no mention of red bars at all. What? Bars blue for wins, red for losses, and they're both marking adjusted points, not MMR.

I think OP did a great job figuring this out, and a decent job explaining it, but these graphs may be doing more harm than good as they stand. The labeling is just off the wall. Figuring out the graphs is total guesswork until you get the big picture.

On April 27 2012 12:15 SDream wrote:


But that's pretty much confirmed on plat, gold and silver, chances are it exist at bronze-diamond, but I want to check diamond, master and GM, GM might be difficult to find a player suitable though =/

A typical player that is losing way more than winning at plat-gold:

0 AP -> wins 15 (they always win 15 in the first game, ALWAYS)
15 AP -> win 14
29 AP -> losses 10
19 AP -> losses 10
9 AP -> losses 9
0 AP -> wins 15 (coincidence!!)
15 AP -> win 14
29 AP -> losses 10
19 AP, however, he is demoted!
73 AP -> losses 12 (12 now... interesting)
61 -> losses 11
50 -> losses 11
39 -> losses 10
29 -> (this number is rather magic...) losses 10
19 -> losses 10
9 -> losses 9
0 -> -9
-9 -> -9
-18 -> -8
-26 -> +16 (16 now! interesting)
-10 -> - 9
-19 -> -8
-27

This example is real and you can find dozens just like him. I am looking for a diamond or master now... diamond will be easier I guess. Cya =)

On April 27 2012 12:35 Excalibur_Z wrote:


Yeah I've noticed similar things happen when going through the histories of players who bomb their MMRs to drop down to Bronze. It's always -12 -11 -11 -10 -10 -9 -9 -9 -9 -8 -8 -8 -8 -8 (league change) -12 -11 -11 -10 -10 etc. So, it's certainly possible that 73 is the "real" baseline. From a game design perspective, it makes sense too: if I were to pitch a ladder system I could easily justify this by saying "you want to make it easier to get some points at the start to encourage activity across all skill levels." Is that what's happening? It's possible, sure, but I don't know for sure.

On April 27 2012 13:01 SDream wrote:


I edited there, but you answered so I will say here as well:

I just confirmed that master and GM still uses the "old" style. I am trying to confirm that diamond is at the new style, but I am having trouble finding good examples, but it seems to be like plat-silver...

It makes sense that bronze-diamond follow a "nooby" style, they have less bonus pool, anyone can be placed there with only 5 games etc. Master and GM are more... "hardcore" :D

Keep in mind this probably started at S3.

On April 27 2012 13:07 Excalibur_Z wrote:


How do you know it's not related to division tiers?

On April 27 2012 12:02 Cassel_Castle wrote:
Hey, I calculated your "smoothed" MMR (last 10 games average without outliers) with this bonus pool for opponent leagues:

On April 27 2012 17:29 Peleus wrote:
If I'm doing this right, I believe I've run into a problem.

Image for information - http://imgur.com/6m3iv

So I was vs'ing other masters opponents and calculating MMR, for example my last one. Bonus pool on SEA at the moment is 224.

Opponents Points: 283
Opponents Change: -6
Bonus Pool: 0

Adjusted Points = 283 ("Points") + 0 ("Bonus Pool") - 224 ("Server Bonus Pool") + 6 ("Without Change") = 65

This gives an F of 18 on the table, meaning we add 176 at the lower bound, 208 at the top. We'll say 192 for a median giving an MMR of 192 + 65 = 257 for my MMR.

Edit: There was a mistake in my spreadsheet giving the incorrect F value (should be 14), the major change in MMR still resides however.

Next game I play against a GM with these stats
Opponents Points: 140
Opponents Change: 14
Bonus Pool: 103

Adjusted Points = 140 ("Points") + 430 ("GM -> M Conversion") + 103 ("Bonus Pool") - 224 ("Server Bonus Pool") - 14 ("Without Change") = 435

Given a change of 14 we have a lookup value of 48 - 80, again we'll take 64 as a median, meaning that my MMR is now 435 + 64 = 499, effectively doubling my MMR after a game.

Doesn't seem feasible, or is MMR really that volatile?

Edit: Thinking it through, this should only be a reflection of MMR as from the previous game. That means it's actually the master game previous to that which doubled my MMR?