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On April 06 2012 10:22 T0fuuu wrote:
Terrans are destroying protoss in tvp now? I think I will give it another month and see what happens to protoss in gsl. Last season was definately a good season for protoss and i was expecting more terrans to get knocked out of code s for this season.
Terrans have always been destroying toss at high level. When everyone went through a OMG TOSS IMBA stage, the PvT winrate was 52%. now its 62% for terran, the MU obviously needs more work done on it
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On April 06 2012 11:15 L3g3nd_ wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 10:22 T0fuuu wrote:
Terrans are destroying protoss in tvp now? I think I will give it another month and see what happens to protoss in gsl. Last season was definately a good season for protoss and i was expecting more terrans to get knocked out of code s for this season. Terrans have always been destroying toss at high level. When everyone went through a OMG TOSS IMBA stage, the PvT winrate was 52%. now its 62% for terran, the MU obviously needs more work done on it
Yeah, that matchup is just bad, terrans are rolling protoss in the early and mid game and lategame they stand little chance unless already ahead from the midgame. Such a bad MU overall -_-.
Not to mention every battle is always a landslide in one sides favour, not good watching.
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I love looking at these graphs! I talk with all of my friends about the latest results! Thank you as usual for compiling them and posting them! =D
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On April 06 2012 07:44 blade55555 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 07:31 -TesteR- wrote:
Protoss on losing ends of both match ups, as expected. Really? I see pvz 55% favoring toss.
I see pvz 46%...
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On April 06 2012 11:36 -TesteR- wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 07:44 blade55555 wrote:On April 06 2012 07:31 -TesteR- wrote:
Protoss on losing ends of both match ups, as expected. Really? I see pvz 55% favoring toss. I see pvz 46%...
What if...
...you're BOTH right
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Just goes to show how random SC2 is starting to feel like once everyone hits that high skill cap.
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The more I look at TLPD or Playhem data, the harder I find it to draw any fine-grained conclusions from small movements in win rates. Especially with the Korean-only data, there are so few games that a single tournament champion ends up skewing the results.
I'll be curious to look at the playhem data once there are enough games post-Ghost nerf to get a sense for what happened in TvZ.
WRT the whole "toss imba" thing even when Terran is ahead in both international and Korean win rates, I think part of what's going on is that players' perception is colored by the length of the game. If the terran wins two games in 12 minutes each off 2 bases, and the protoss wins one game at 24 minutes off four bases, you've spent 50% of your time watching each race win, but the Terran has a 67% win rate. What's more, people on TL think the only "real" way to play is a big long macro game, so the Terran wins don't count as "real" wins.
I also think there's a way to win TvP in the late game as terran, but no one's thinking really hard about it. Everyone just adds on more barracks and tries to play the remax game with MMMVG, which requires you to trade at close to even cost/supply on every single battle even though warpins puts protoss ahead by one production cycle and Zealot/Archon is incredibly supply efficient in terms of both DPS and hit points. There's got to be some other way to play the matchup in the lategame.
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Back to the status quo in regards to TvP being impossible for protoss. ZvP is interesting, but in Korea right now we have a resurgence of good protoss finally figuring out something about the matchup. I think Stephano has had a huge impact on Foreign ZvP whereas Korean zergs are stagnating a bit due to a lack of Protoss in higher leagues.
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On April 06 2012 07:05 Whitewing wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 06:38 hzflank wrote:
I think people need to start ignoring the korean graph. I have seen many times people have said (in previous threads) that only the korean data matters. However, the sample size of the korean data has always been too small, which is why the korean graph changes so extremely. I have not studied statistics, but it seems obvious to me that we would be better off analysing only the international data. No, you are incorrect, and you would know why if you studied statistics. A sample size of greater than 30 is probably good enough.
Though a graph representing less of the population is more viable then one representing a greater portion of the population? I believe that to be a fallacy.
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On April 06 2012 07:13 Olsson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 04:44 Recoil wrote:
Look at the huge change in TvZ. I don't think its all ghost nerf, I think a big part is the new mass ling w/ ugrades into infestor into hive tech strategy. I think TvZ will balance out next month.
In TvP holy hell 60-40 in KR favoring T I AM HONESTLY SHOCKED.
In ZvP why is it in the international scene Z is favored and the opposite is true in KR. Because korean protosses knows how to play protoss. Thought out build orders, great timings, abusing stuff such as BL immobility, good scouting (which many tosses lack) and consisency things such as forcefields which many foreigners seem to fail with placing well.
I said this in last month's thread, but korean protosses 2 base allin much more frequently than foreign ones. This pretty much explains the disparity.
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United States7483 Posts
On April 06 2012 12:34 Catatonic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 07:05 Whitewing wrote:On April 06 2012 06:38 hzflank wrote:
I think people need to start ignoring the korean graph. I have seen many times people have said (in previous threads) that only the korean data matters. However, the sample size of the korean data has always been too small, which is why the korean graph changes so extremely. I have not studied statistics, but it seems obvious to me that we would be better off analysing only the international data. No, you are incorrect, and you would know why if you studied statistics. A sample size of greater than 30 is probably good enough. Though a graph representing less of the population is more viable then one representing a greater portion of the population? I believe that to be a fallacy.
We're using different definitions of the word 'population'. A statistical population is not the same thing. Remember what it is we are measuring: balance at the professional level. The Korean graphs better represent that, because Koreans are superior players, others make more mistakes and have larger error rates in their performance, which leads to less accurate results. Thus, we should be looking at balance in the Korean population, rather than balance in the population of all SC2 pro-gamers.
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On April 06 2012 11:25 Hypemeup wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 11:15 L3g3nd_ wrote:On April 06 2012 10:22 T0fuuu wrote:
Terrans are destroying protoss in tvp now? I think I will give it another month and see what happens to protoss in gsl. Last season was definately a good season for protoss and i was expecting more terrans to get knocked out of code s for this season. Terrans have always been destroying toss at high level. When everyone went through a OMG TOSS IMBA stage, the PvT winrate was 52%. now its 62% for terran, the MU obviously needs more work done on it Not to mention every battle is always a landslide in one sides favour, not good watching.
This bears repeating I think. Pvz and Tvz are totally different to play/watch in this sense; there's usually lots of frequent engagements and back and forth action. Pvt is usually 1 big battle where 1 side decisively wins and the game ends shortly afterword. Not great from a spectator point of view.
I don't know how they could really fix this though so w/e.
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On April 06 2012 11:25 Hypemeup wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 11:15 L3g3nd_ wrote:On April 06 2012 10:22 T0fuuu wrote:
Terrans are destroying protoss in tvp now? I think I will give it another month and see what happens to protoss in gsl. Last season was definately a good season for protoss and i was expecting more terrans to get knocked out of code s for this season. Terrans have always been destroying toss at high level. When everyone went through a OMG TOSS IMBA stage, the PvT winrate was 52%. now its 62% for terran, the MU obviously needs more work done on it Yeah, that matchup is just bad, terrans are rolling protoss in the early and mid game and lategame they stand little chance unless already ahead from the midgame. Such a bad MU overall -_-. Not to mention every battle is always a landslide in one sides favour, not good watching.
Yeah. I've found that I either win through positioning, upgrade advantages, and the correct T2 units to counter his T3 units and crush him, or I die due to lack of these three things. Carpet EMPs make things extremely one-sided as well.
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On April 06 2012 13:07 Drowsy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 11:25 Hypemeup wrote:On April 06 2012 11:15 L3g3nd_ wrote:On April 06 2012 10:22 T0fuuu wrote:
Terrans are destroying protoss in tvp now? I think I will give it another month and see what happens to protoss in gsl. Last season was definately a good season for protoss and i was expecting more terrans to get knocked out of code s for this season. Terrans have always been destroying toss at high level. When everyone went through a OMG TOSS IMBA stage, the PvT winrate was 52%. now its 62% for terran, the MU obviously needs more work done on it Not to mention every battle is always a landslide in one sides favour, not good watching. This bears repeating I think. Pvz and Tvz are totally different to play/watch in this sense; there's usually lots of frequent engagements and back and forth action. Pvt is usually 1 big battle where 1 side decisively wins and the game ends shortly afterword. Not great from a spectator point of view. I don't know how they could really fix this though so w/e. You mean fix it without re-writing most of the Protoss race.
Imo, they would need to buff Gateway units, nerf Colossus, add more dynamic abilites, remove the Sentry, remove Warpgate, and then go from there. It's the kind of thing that warrants a beta. 
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Finally the game is pretty balanced in the last three months.
I think the big difference from the past, is for the maps.
In korea u should to analyze more months than one, at least 6 months.
If you watch the GSL code S, at the highest levels, zerg have some difficultities, while toss are going better.
Overall 12 months, T OP! We know this.
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Surprisingly enough, I think the 3 Terran matchups are balanced! I just think PvZ is a little Zerg favored at the moment. Personal opinion of course.
And yeah, I think we shouldn't look at the monthly trend, but rather look at the 3 month trends when we look at the graph. There's more games and also doesn't fluctuate when a GSL or MLG champ goes on a tear.
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Oh my god, the terran winrates in TvP are just... ridiculous, lol
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Dem Korean terrans. Nerf after nerf after nerf and yet there they are back on top. Truly, their collective talent can only send your jaw dropping in amazement.
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United States7483 Posts
On April 06 2012 13:23 red4ce wrote:
Dem Korean terrans. Nerf after nerf after nerf and yet there they are back on top. Truly, their collective talent can only send your jaw dropping in amazement.
Or the fact that Terran was absurdly overpowered and really needed those nerfs.
For the record, I think the ghost nerf was overdoing it, qxc's solution was much better.
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On April 06 2012 13:36 Whitewing wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 13:23 red4ce wrote:
Dem Korean terrans. Nerf after nerf after nerf and yet there they are back on top. Truly, their collective talent can only send your jaw dropping in amazement. Or the fact that Terran was absurdly overpowered and really needed those nerfs. For the record, I think the ghost nerf was overdoing it, qxc's solution was much better.
but its not like we have seen a huge wave of OMG I CANT BEAT TOSS STORM OP rages, terran is still DOMINATING the match up. Ghost is the only counter to HT, and it still does its job fine.
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EPT
