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On November 24 2011 04:53 zere wrote:
Please everyone remember that betting real money will inevitably lead to losing real money. If you are going to bet, just for the heck of it, set yourself a monthly maximum, say 10 bucks. Hitting 2 or 3 wrong results in a row, money can vanish faster than you could possibly imagine. Odds are designed for you to lose money. The only one who wins in any betting game is the bookie. The best way in order to not lose money is simply not to bet.
Don't even anyone dare to question this. No, not only others are stupid, you can be, too. You do not have a perfect system, because there is no perfect system. No, your friend of your friend did not win anything, especially not long-term, he is making stuff up. Be responsible and get rid of your illusion.
I don't know how to be clearer. I hope someone who wanted to throw his money away read this and stopped betting.
lol. Wow. Amazing.
I mean, gambling is a problem for some people, but what an extreme post. I know several very successful sports bettors. I know guys who bet consistently well on SC2 games. It's unfortunate I live in the USA, or I'd do it too with regularity.
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What zere said is true to some degree.
For GSL open seasons 1 and 2, there was another site that took bets, called XLBet. Their odds were even posted in LR threads. That site eventually shut down, and anyone who hadn't cashed out were shit out of luck. Even then, XLBet hadn't been cashing anyone out for a few weeks before their shutdown.
As a fun idea, I took a fake $500 bankroll and attempted to see if I could make any money using the XLBet odds in GSL open season 2, using my Liquibets. My bets were conservative, ranging from $10 to $50 depending on my confidence level. I had correctly predicted about 70% of the matchups, including the eventual winner, Nestea. Guess how much I had in my bankroll after the season was over? $540. That's right, being top 100 in Liquibet only gave me $40 when it converted into real betting.
(GSL Open Season 2 was chock full of upsets, by the way. I bet $50 on FruitDealer over MarineKing, then called BoxeR, because MarineKing looked awful in round 1. That one loss killed all I made in the Ro64. It only takes one loss to reset your funds.)
Basically, if you can't win at least two-thirds of your Liquibet guesses, you will eventually lose money. That's the house advantage of betting sites. Those odds are carefully calculated so that they're stacked against you.
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u said they do it in korea? aren't they illegal there?
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On November 24 2011 16:31 andrea20 wrote:
Basically, if you can't win at least two-thirds of your Liquibet guesses, you will eventually lose money. That's the house advantage of betting sites. Those odds are carefully calculated so that they're stacked against you.
You can easily calculate the house advantage, if you take one bet and place your wager on all outcomings so that you get the same amount back no matter what the outcome is. The percentage you don't get back is the house advantage. (you will realize that the house advantage is nearly the same on all bets)
And this can be hugely varying on different betting providers.
Example: pinnacle today
Leenock 1.645 / -155
aLive 2.320 / +132
If we bet 1/1.645 in Leenock and 1/2.320 on aLive we get back 1 unit every time.
1/1.645+1/2.320 = 1,0389
So we have to bet ~1,04 units in total. House advantage is 4%.
That is very good for betting sites. Many other sites have ~10% and if you go in to some real betting house, it goes up to 20%.
If you want to bet profitably you have to beat the bookie by 4% (or whatever the advantage is).
(Test: sC 3.860, MVP 1.283, units to bet 1,0385)
On another note:
Liquibet is quite different, because you simply bet who you think will win >50%, so you will almost always bet on who is the favourite based on betting odds. But if you get for example almost 4x on sC vs MVP, your decision might be often different.
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Poland27 Posts
Hi
for anyone who want to check his skills in betting i would go to the ESBL Site
https://www.esbl.co/
there was a TL thread on this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=284204
Here u will recieve virtual monney for free and u can bet all u want. Just try it. The only thing u can lose is the Time spent on it.
I wanted to try some betting Sites myself, but after trying the esbl i soon found out that i have lost over 1500 "e-dollars" and i would be verry depressed if this would be real monney.
So no real betting for me 
Have Fun
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
SC2 betting has to be easy to beat with insider information (as a progamer etc that knows all the pros).
Even if you don't have that and are a good player who watches all the games I'm sure it's very beatable.
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I've been betting on sc2 with pinnaclesports. Just betting small bets like 5-10$ because sc2 is still pretty random as any other esport.
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I once won 500,000,000 from a 5,000,000 meat investment in browser-based rpg kingdom of loathing on a pvp coinflip. Kinda put me off gambling when I realised I can get enough of a rush from playing with free money.
I wholeheartedly agree with BartPil's post about esbl.co though. I'm shit at it and bet way too risky, but I have good fun with it at least.
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On November 24 2011 17:58 poofie wrote:
I've been betting on sc2 with pinnaclesports. Just betting small bets like 5-10$ because sc2 is still pretty random as any other esport.
Well, it won't be an interesting sport if it wasn't a bit random.
Would you like MVP to have a 90% win rate and get 1.05 odds on him all the time? Where's the fun in that?
The biggest mistake many bettors make is that they try to predict the winner (as in 100% winner) and bet on him no matter of how bad the odds are. This is wrong.
You need to predict the odds (percentages) that player has to win. If your odds are different that what the bookie offers go for it. If it's the same, just avoid that match.
You can also just check the offer and see if any odds look slightly off to you. For example they have Leenock at 1.55, but you think it should be 1.65; in this case bet on his opponent.
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On November 24 2011 04:53 zere wrote:
Please everyone remember that betting real money will inevitably lead to losing real money. If you are going to bet, just for the heck of it, set yourself a monthly maximum, say 10 bucks. Hitting 2 or 3 wrong results in a row, money can vanish faster than you could possibly imagine. Odds are designed for you to lose money. The only one who wins in any betting game is the bookie. The best way in order to not lose money is simply not to bet.
Don't even anyone dare to question this. No, not only others are stupid, you can be, too. You do not have a perfect system, because there is no perfect system. No, your friend of your friend did not win anything, especially not long-term, he is making stuff up. Be responsible and get rid of your illusion.
I don't know how to be clearer. I hope someone who wanted to throw his money away read this and stopped betting.
my family use to own a pub, and we use to put bets on with bookies for punters and they even admit thay they woudlnt exist if they odds werent stacke din their favour,. For instance fruit machines are also the same 70% payout or something and of course it doesnt even feel like that, because how many times when you do win a £1 or somethign small ypu put it right back in?
Use to love watching some clueless guy put £40 in a bandit only for me to go on it as soon as he left and win the jackpot and walk away with like £30+ from a fiver if even that then thats ame guy soemtimes wouldcome back with more cash and rinse repeat :D
one of the main reasons I miss having a pub in the fmaily.. lol
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If you want real money, pinnaclesports is the only option I know of.... but if your looking to have fun, win prizes without the risks of real money try ggBet.net
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On November 24 2011 04:53 zere wrote:
Please everyone remember that betting real money will inevitably lead to losing real money. If you are going to bet, just for the heck of it, set yourself a monthly maximum, say 10 bucks. Hitting 2 or 3 wrong results in a row, money can vanish faster than you could possibly imagine. Odds are designed for you to lose money. The only one who wins in any betting game is the bookie. The best way in order to not lose money is simply not to bet.
Don't even anyone dare to question this. No, not only others are stupid, you can be, too. You do not have a perfect system, because there is no perfect system. No, your friend of your friend did not win anything, especially not long-term, he is making stuff up. Be responsible and get rid of your illusion.
I don't know how to be clearer. I hope someone who wanted to throw his money away read this and stopped betting.
I'd use my poker approach : never bet more than you're willing to lose.
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On November 24 2011 04:53 zere wrote:
Please everyone remember that betting real money will inevitably lead to losing real money. If you are going to bet, just for the heck of it, set yourself a monthly maximum, say 10 bucks. Hitting 2 or 3 wrong results in a row, money can vanish faster than you could possibly imagine. Odds are designed for you to lose money. The only one who wins in any betting game is the bookie. The best way in order to not lose money is simply not to bet.
Don't even anyone dare to question this. No, not only others are stupid, you can be, too. You do not have a perfect system, because there is no perfect system. No, your friend of your friend did not win anything, especially not long-term, he is making stuff up. Be responsible and get rid of your illusion.
I don't know how to be clearer. I hope someone who wanted to throw his money away read this and stopped betting.
Goodness gracious. You lost money recently? :/
Gambling can be a very fun and exciting hobby. Yes if you spend too much money on it it's bad but, WOW...
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On November 24 2011 04:49 kammeyer wrote:Pretty cool idea. I'd be wayyy too afraid to bet on SC2 right now, haha. It seems like no one consistently wins tournaments quite yet. I mean, the top 8 is consistently the same people, but not the top 4 it seems like.
+ Show Spoiler +Well just bet in tourneys that MVP enters then
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I know betting money on games is huge on neotv, the Chinese site for GSL, since I browse there quite frequently, and they always be talking about bettings every other thread.
Maybe you can make a post and ask them there what site they use
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I'd always bet on MVP, duke doesn't seem a safe bet anymore.
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On November 24 2011 04:53 zere wrote:
Please everyone remember that betting real money will inevitably lead to losing real money. If you are going to bet, just for the heck of it, set yourself a monthly maximum, say 10 bucks. Hitting 2 or 3 wrong results in a row, money can vanish faster than you could possibly imagine. Odds are designed for you to lose money. The only one who wins in any betting game is the bookie. The best way in order to not lose money is simply not to bet.
Don't even anyone dare to question this. No, not only others are stupid, you can be, too. You do not have a perfect system, because there is no perfect system. No, your friend of your friend did not win anything, especially not long-term, he is making stuff up. Be responsible and get rid of your illusion.
I don't know how to be clearer. I hope someone who wanted to throw his money away read this and stopped betting.
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. There are plenty of professional sports betters, it's not easy and yes the house takes a small percentage. That being said if you are a good line shopper you can still be very profitable, it takes skill, experience and bankroll management but its certainly possible.
That being said SC2 is certainly something you can be profitable at since the lines are often quite off.
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The thing is, starcraft 2 is the only sport where you can have an edge over the bookmaker.
In a blink of an eye I can see when their odds are over or under-evaluated, and since pinnacle offers sc2 bets I stopped completely betting on other sports (well, I was betting on sports casually).
By the way, we can be glad that Pinnacle is the one to choose to offer ESPORTS bets, as it's one of the best and most reputable betting sites on the market (and the one that offer the best odds and take the smallest cut, usually 4% where the standard is 5-10%).
But for anyone interested to bet, I would recommend to read a lot about the subject before doing so (bankroll management in particular). You can bet casually too, like people who play loto or instant-games. Just have a budget and be strict about it.
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On November 24 2011 05:46 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 04:53 zere wrote:
Please everyone remember that betting real money will inevitably lead to losing real money. If you are going to bet, just for the heck of it, set yourself a monthly maximum, say 10 bucks. Hitting 2 or 3 wrong results in a row, money can vanish faster than you could possibly imagine. Odds are designed for you to lose money. The only one who wins in any betting game is the bookie. The best way in order to not lose money is simply not to bet.
Don't even anyone dare to question this. No, not only others are stupid, you can be, too. You do not have a perfect system, because there is no perfect system. No, your friend of your friend did not win anything, especially not long-term, he is making stuff up. Be responsible and get rid of your illusion.
I don't know how to be clearer. I hope someone who wanted to throw his money away read this and stopped betting. Wow, you really dont understand the odds market works. Dissapointing post from an admin. I think your confusing value betting with betting blindly.
this. i work for a gambling company and quite a few makes money in the long run. maybe not more than 1-2%, but there sure is those that do. and yes, its not about systems and such, its about value betting
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FYI: Bookmakers don't actually try to predict what chances each side has of winning when they set their odds. They predict how players will bet and they set their odds accordingly. I.e. You don't need to be better than the bookie, you only need to be better than the other players. I think this is very, very doable in starcraft II.
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EPT
