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Do you macro like a pro? - Page 36

Forum Index > SC2 General
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FuRong
Profile Joined April 2010
New Zealand3089 Posts
September 17 2011 15:32 GMT
#701
This is amazing, fantastic work and an interesting read.
Don't hate the player, hate the game
ScoringFire
Profile Joined December 2010
United States30 Posts
September 17 2011 15:35 GMT
#702
This is absolutely incredible! I'm a senior in high school and this is why I love learning math! Anyways, I averaged 11 games(7 wins 4 losses) and my average SQ was 77 with the highest being 90 and the lowest being 63. I'm a plat protoss, and I scored higher than the masters average so you have made me exceedingly happy!

Thanks so much!
"Why are you guys trying to justify this?" -QXC
Drock
Profile Joined October 2010
United States305 Posts
September 17 2011 15:41 GMT
#703
I have no clue whether or not any of this is accurate as I am no mathematician, but I will definitely take your word for it. I am really impressed that you came up with that formula on your own. My art brain could never do that lol
I kinda miss Idra...
Reithan
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States360 Posts
September 17 2011 16:09 GMT
#704
A couple things:

1. People keep refering to this:
[image loading]
as a 'graph'. That's accurate partly, but it's a histogram.

It DOESN'T show anything about a moving avg per number of games, or anything else mentioned. It shows how many games had a given rating for a given league.

If you look at the X axis (SQ) across to around 35-ish, then look up to the Bronze line, you'll see it peaks at around 45. This means he found 45 games where a Bronze player scored 35. The fact that the bronze line shows 10 Games at around 70 SQ only means that he ALSO found 10 games where a Bronze had a 70 SQ.

The Histogram isn't an average, or a moving average, or anything. It's basically just a list, in image form of "I had X games with Y rating for Z League."

So, it shows you how strongly the rating correlates. As you can see the peaks for each league aren't super crazy steep with gaps between their bases, there IS some overlap. So it's possible for a league to score outside their expected SQ range, however, the tops of the peaks ARE significantly higher than the widest portion of their base, and in most cases the peaks are fairly far apart, showing that the results are indicative of something...though Bronze has a second peak that coincides with Silver...

What you CAN attribute the smaller number of games where the person's SQ was higher or lower than avg are many things, such as someone's who smurfing, someone who has lowered their rating on purpose, someone's practiced a lot and is about to league up, someone on a killer win streak, a zerg that is just overdroning and facerolling the keyboard, etc.

Probably the secondary peak on Bronze is due to smurfs, achievement hunters and people leaguing up.
http://www.teamliquid.net/blog/Xanthus730 ***** http://www.twitch.tv/reithan
Soyuz
Profile Joined July 2011
Hong Kong996 Posts
September 17 2011 16:25 GMT
#705
Amazing post! Found it surprising that Gold players were so close to Silver though, I always felt that Gold is just as threatening as Platinum on ladder.

Now all we need is a calculated SQ for pros in the TLPD...
eXwOn
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada351 Posts
September 17 2011 16:42 GMT
#706
My average SQ is...85.34?? But... I'm a terran, I can't macro! Something must be wrong.

Awesome man! Thanks for the great formula.
#2 in the world on the ladders!!! 3.31.11 :D:D:D
ScrubS
Profile Joined September 2010
Netherlands436 Posts
September 17 2011 17:14 GMT
#707
On September 17 2011 09:19 DiaBoLuS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?


or your math is wrong


The math wasn't wrong, besides, that isn't relevant to my question..


On September 17 2011 09:29 rauk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?


3 is an incredibly small sample size. i can also get a 90+ SQ if i cherry pick games, that's why you need to use at least 10+ games.


The sample size doesn't matter, it isn't of any importance to my question. Besides, i didnt cherry pick, when i calced it of 10 random games, my SQ was still 92...


On September 17 2011 09:38 tshred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?



It's just an indicator of how well you spend your money. There are other hidden factors for macro that can't be calculated mathematically such as expansion timings, worker saturation compared to the number of bases, number of production facilities, etc. These other factors affect your macro in addition to how well you spend your money.

To determine if your macro is good enough, you'll need to examine some information about your games. If you are below diamond league, then for the most part you could still work on macro. For the games that you lost, compare your income to your opponents. If you have a high SQ, but your income is lower than your opponent, then you still need to work on your macro. If your income is about the same or greater than your opponent and you still lost the game, then there was probably some decision making or micro error that might've cost you the game.


Okay thank you <3 at least somebody who doesn't focus on my SQ number
Van Nasty
Profile Joined October 2010
35 Posts
September 17 2011 17:45 GMT
#708
So, with my average being 76 over 10 games (picked 5 wins, 5 losses), but being in Platinum...does that point to my micro/decision making being my biggest weakness currently?
GHOSTCLAW
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States17042 Posts
September 17 2011 18:05 GMT
#709
very very nice. Interesting that the different macro mechanics didn't affect the analysis, which to me ends up being the most important conclusion.

Maybe eveuentially you can create a win probability graph with this data. One other weird thing is that I bet that some systematic variability per player exists just because of when they gg. Nice analysis tho
PhotographerLiquipedia. Drop me a pm if you've got questions/need help.
GHOSTCLAW
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States17042 Posts
September 17 2011 18:07 GMT
#710
On September 18 2011 02:14 ScrubS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 09:19 DiaBoLuS wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?


or your math is wrong


The math wasn't wrong, besides, that isn't relevant to my question..


Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 09:29 rauk wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?


3 is an incredibly small sample size. i can also get a 90+ SQ if i cherry pick games, that's why you need to use at least 10+ games.


The sample size doesn't matter, it isn't of any importance to my question. Besides, i didnt cherry pick, when i calced it of 10 random games, my SQ was still 92...


Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 09:38 tshred wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?



It's just an indicator of how well you spend your money. There are other hidden factors for macro that can't be calculated mathematically such as expansion timings, worker saturation compared to the number of bases, number of production facilities, etc. These other factors affect your macro in addition to how well you spend your money.

To determine if your macro is good enough, you'll need to examine some information about your games. If you are below diamond league, then for the most part you could still work on macro. For the games that you lost, compare your income to your opponents. If you have a high SQ, but your income is lower than your opponent, then you still need to work on your macro. If your income is about the same or greater than your opponent and you still lost the game, then there was probably some decision making or micro error that might've cost you the game.


Okay thank you <3 at least somebody who doesn't focus on my SQ number


40+ games to analyze your games if you have a really really weird outlier.

Just to somewhat answer your question a little better, it's mostly another indicator that you can judge your play by - looks like you should look at cost efficiency (actually it would be nice if there was a good way to judge that), as well as timings and stuff. This number looks like APM - another way to measure your skill, but not as good as say...ladder rank/sc2ranks/win/loss record.
PhotographerLiquipedia. Drop me a pm if you've got questions/need help.
figq
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
12519 Posts
September 17 2011 18:14 GMT
#711
On September 17 2011 17:54 rauk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2011 17:18 figq wrote:
On September 17 2011 16:37 rauk wrote:
On September 17 2011 15:49 figq wrote:
On September 17 2011 14:53 Azzur wrote:
I believe there are definite gaps between leagues. The empirical data supports what many higher level players know intuitively.
Bronze and GrandMaster overlap (marked area):
[image loading]
Let alone the closer leagues. So we can hardly talk of gaps between leagues. There is scaling in the averages, but there is still quite a lot of variation within a league, and between different games of the same player.


there are obviously gaps between the leagues, you just don't know how to read the graph. the overlapping parts are at very low game counts, so essentially the fewer games there are, the more likely the leagues are to overlap. as you increase the sample size, the gaps become more distinguished.
Your last sentence has a couple of things wrong:
1. There's no such implication here: fewer games -> more likely to overlap
2. There's only one sample size here - of the whole study. And we can only assume if it is increased that the curves will scale proportionately.

What you meant to re-iterate with that sentence is that the overlap is relatively small to the overall sample size. That is obviously true, but it still exists and is not negligible. And even more so the closer the leagues are. Whereas to claim gaps would mean that two neighboring leagues (the closest) do not overlap at all. Which would be practically impossible by any measure, not just SQ. Luckily, the OP doesn't claim that at all.


? you've got to be trolling me. the y axis of the graph is the number of games. as the number of games go up, the less two different leagues will overlap on the SQ x-axis. the OP appears to have not gone with the same number of games per league, which makes the graph a little visually misleading. as you increase the sample size per league, ie the number of games played, eg as you go up the y-axis, you can can see how the average SQ increases, and that the difference between the average SQ for each league starts to widen.
Number of games used per league is the same - 100. It seems you imagine the curves would change like that when you increase the sample size:
[image loading]
however, they would scale proportionately - the overlap increases with the same factor as the peaks:
[image loading]
If you stand next to my head, you can hear the ocean. - Day[9]
TheRabidDeer
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States3806 Posts
September 17 2011 18:35 GMT
#712
On September 18 2011 01:09 Reithan wrote:
A couple things:

1. People keep refering to this:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

as a 'graph'. That's accurate partly, but it's a histogram.

It DOESN'T show anything about a moving avg per number of games, or anything else mentioned. It shows how many games had a given rating for a given league.

If you look at the X axis (SQ) across to around 35-ish, then look up to the Bronze line, you'll see it peaks at around 45. This means he found 45 games where a Bronze player scored 35. The fact that the bronze line shows 10 Games at around 70 SQ only means that he ALSO found 10 games where a Bronze had a 70 SQ.

The Histogram isn't an average, or a moving average, or anything. It's basically just a list, in image form of "I had X games with Y rating for Z League."

So, it shows you how strongly the rating correlates. As you can see the peaks for each league aren't super crazy steep with gaps between their bases, there IS some overlap. So it's possible for a league to score outside their expected SQ range, however, the tops of the peaks ARE significantly higher than the widest portion of their base, and in most cases the peaks are fairly far apart, showing that the results are indicative of something...though Bronze has a second peak that coincides with Silver...

What you CAN attribute the smaller number of games where the person's SQ was higher or lower than avg are many things, such as someone's who smurfing, someone who has lowered their rating on purpose, someone's practiced a lot and is about to league up, someone on a killer win streak, a zerg that is just overdroning and facerolling the keyboard, etc.

Probably the secondary peak on Bronze is due to smurfs, achievement hunters and people leaguing up.

Another thing you can pull from the histogram is the base SQ for each league.

For grandmasters, it is rare to be below an SQ of 60.
For masters, it is around 45-50
For diamond, it is around 38ish
For platinum, it is around 30
For gold, it is around 20
Conquerer67
Profile Joined May 2011
United States605 Posts
September 17 2011 18:39 GMT
#713
On September 18 2011 03:07 GHOSTCLAW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2011 02:14 ScrubS wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:19 DiaBoLuS wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?


or your math is wrong


The math wasn't wrong, besides, that isn't relevant to my question..


On September 17 2011 09:29 rauk wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?


3 is an incredibly small sample size. i can also get a 90+ SQ if i cherry pick games, that's why you need to use at least 10+ games.


The sample size doesn't matter, it isn't of any importance to my question. Besides, i didnt cherry pick, when i calced it of 10 random games, my SQ was still 92...


On September 17 2011 09:38 tshred wrote:
On September 17 2011 09:06 ScrubS wrote:
I dont get the SQ stuff, I calculated mine from 3 random games in my match history and i had an average of 93. You are suggesting that with such a high SQ number, i shouldn't focus on my macro because I am able to spent my resources? Or is it more an indicator of macro capabilities rather than your actual skill? I guess that just depends on the number of games you analyze?



It's just an indicator of how well you spend your money. There are other hidden factors for macro that can't be calculated mathematically such as expansion timings, worker saturation compared to the number of bases, number of production facilities, etc. These other factors affect your macro in addition to how well you spend your money.

To determine if your macro is good enough, you'll need to examine some information about your games. If you are below diamond league, then for the most part you could still work on macro. For the games that you lost, compare your income to your opponents. If you have a high SQ, but your income is lower than your opponent, then you still need to work on your macro. If your income is about the same or greater than your opponent and you still lost the game, then there was probably some decision making or micro error that might've cost you the game.


Okay thank you <3 at least somebody who doesn't focus on my SQ number


40+ games to analyze your games if you have a really really weird outlier.

Just to somewhat answer your question a little better, it's mostly another indicator that you can judge your play by - looks like you should look at cost efficiency (actually it would be nice if there was a good way to judge that), as well as timings and stuff. This number looks like APM - another way to measure your skill, but not as good as say...ladder rank/sc2ranks/win/loss record.


I think that the SQ number should only be used to measure how good someone is in macro, not necessarily overall skill. Skill is a combination of macro capabilities to get the units, but in Platinum and higher, you also have to have some micro to win engagements, and by extension games
I hate when people compare SC2 and rochambeu. One race isn't fucking supposed to counter another one. | Protoss isn't OP. Their units on the other hand....
Xretes
Profile Joined September 2010
United States14 Posts
September 17 2011 18:50 GMT
#714
Amazing post. I wonder how a person's SQ average would be effected when the SQ is calculated with a weighted average based on the time of the sample games.
Scisyhp
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States200 Posts
September 17 2011 18:58 GMT
#715
One slight problem is that things completely unrelated to your macro also have an effect on your SQ. For example, if I am a zerg player doing a 300 food push against a protoss player, and have a ton of money banked, but he does something completely stupid, throws away his army, and then loses before I can reinforce I will have a very high amount of unspent resources and therefore a lower SQ.
cheekybanana
Profile Joined September 2011
Turkey3 Posts
September 17 2011 19:45 GMT
#716
oh my god nice
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
September 17 2011 19:53 GMT
#717
It's amazing how close Masters-Diamond and Gold-Silver are to each other. I guess at those points, winning has more to do with builds/decision over macro.
FenneK
Profile Joined November 2010
France1231 Posts
September 17 2011 21:11 GMT
#718
holy ballsmurfs

this is awesome

great contribution!
good luck have batman
ChiIIgetoutGG
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada101 Posts
September 17 2011 21:29 GMT
#719
This guy is an economist. Apply regression to SC2 is OP. Btw Graph 1 & 2 are ODE and 3 & 4 are linear regressions. Thanks for the post!
"Seriously quit this business already, you are immature, not even good caster and TAKE ADVANTAGE OF YOUR GENDER."
softan
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden113 Posts
September 17 2011 21:38 GMT
#720
I think someone should do a comparison between the races and their respective SQ. Maybe 20 protoss, 20 zerg and 20 terran randomly selected from master or whatever. This would show us if this really is a fair way to determine how good someones macro is. I think queueing stuff in your buildnings alot can really mess this up, that's indicative of bad macro but would probably yield good SQ results.
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