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On January 28 2012 05:42 Lysenko wrote:
Even if post-game points do use the capped MMR (which should be easy to tell, and it sounds like you're sure that's the case) maintaining a behind-the-scenes uncapped MMR and adjusting the hidden MMR based on that number would prevent the problems that Mendelfist is describing with the entire population shifting around as a result of the cap. Of course, that would cause points and MMR to diverge for capped players, which means they wouldn't get sorted properly on the list.
I was trying to edit my post and wound up quoting myself instead, by mistake. Sorry! The bold text above is what I was adding.
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On January 28 2012 05:42 Lysenko wrote:
It also does occur to me, though, that if there were a hard cap at the top and a hard floor at the bottom (to fix the problem where people at the bottom can't earn any points) those might balance each other off to fix any tendency for the population to drift.
I don't think you can use two caps. That would make it impossible to preserve the relation between MMR difference and chance to win, which I think is quite fundamental to the matchmaking.
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On January 28 2012 05:55 Mendelfist wrote:
I don't think you can use two caps. That would make it impossible to preserve the relation between MMR difference and chance to win, which I think is quite fundamental to the matchmaking.
It only has that effect for matches involving people beyond the limits. There's no reason that relation can't be maintained in the range between the cap and floor.
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On January 28 2012 06:12 Lysenko wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 05:55 Mendelfist wrote:
I don't think you can use two caps. That would make it impossible to preserve the relation between MMR difference and chance to win, which I think is quite fundamental to the matchmaking. It only has that effect for matches involving people beyond the limits. There's no reason that relation can't be maintained in the range between the cap and floor.
I don't see how you can do that. If you don't update a players MMR after the match according to the calculated winning probabilities, the systems estimate of that players skill will no longer be correct. When that player in turn is matched against other players, the incorrect estimate will spread.
The effect of an upper cap will be as I said earlier, a downwards push of every other player, like pushing one end of a spring. If you push both ends of the spring, the entire spring will compress. I don't see how you can confine the compression to the ends of the MMR range.
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On January 28 2012 06:21 Mendelfist wrote:
The effect of an upper cap will be as I said earlier, a downwards push of every other player, like pushing one end of a spring. If you push both ends of the spring, the entire spring will compress. I don't see how you can confine the compression to the ends of the MMR range.
As long as the result is stable over the long term, a mapping between MMR difference and win likelihood can be found, even if it's maybe nonlinear across the full range. In any case, having equal MMR would still predict a 50% likelihood of a win. There would just be "stretching" of the scale that would affect how far above or below 50% you were with a particular numeric difference in MMR.
As I mentioned earlier, a "soft cap" avoids a lot of these issues, and I'm not sure why that approach wouldn't be preferable, but I'm guessing that the actual implementation is probably different and more complex than any of the possibilities we're talking about.
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On January 28 2012 08:54 Lysenko wrote:
As long as the result is stable over the long term, a mapping between MMR difference and win likelihood can be found, even if it's maybe nonlinear across the full range. In any case, having equal MMR would still predict a 50% likelihood of a win. There would just be "stretching" of the scale that would affect how far above or below 50% you were with a particular numeric difference in MMR.
Yes, you may be right, but I wonder if there are any unexpected side effects. It's hard to get an intuitive feeling for things like this. Sometimes I would like to write a small program that simulates a matchmaking system and experiment with it, but as usual these projects tend to never happen. I'll just put it on the shelf with "things to do". There is a lot of stuff there.
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System makes no sense on the surface! ><
I am diamond
Last matches:
Play a masters player, I win 12 points he loses 10. If he lost less than I won, it technically means that my rating is higher than his, right? He is 65-66 in masters. One of his other recent games was an 11 point loss against another masters.
Before him, is another 12 point win, he loses 11. He is also masters. His prior match was an 11 point win over another masters player.
Before that, another 12 point win for me, he loses 11. Masters. He gets a 12 point win against another masters after our game.
The majority of my games are against masters players with them losing fewer than I am winning... why wont it just promote me =[
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On January 31 2012 06:42 TheRabidDeer wrote:
The majority of my games are against masters players with them losing fewer than I am winning... why wont it just promote me =[
Like the article says, leagues are "sticky" so they don't promote and then take it back the next week. Also: reading between the lines in the seasonal "how to get a promotion" blogs, it sounds like they may have made it a lot harder to get promoted mid-season since the seasons got shorter. Excalibur_Z: you think that might be the case?
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Anyone know when this current season ends? And does the ladder lock happen 2 weeks before the end of the season?
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United States12248 Posts
On January 31 2012 06:42 TheRabidDeer wrote:
System makes no sense on the surface! ><
I am diamond
Last matches:
Play a masters player, I win 12 points he loses 10. If he lost less than I won, it technically means that my rating is higher than his, right? He is 65-66 in masters. One of his other recent games was an 11 point loss against another masters.
Before him, is another 12 point win, he loses 11. He is also masters. His prior match was an 11 point win over another masters player.
Before that, another 12 point win for me, he loses 11. Masters. He gets a 12 point win against another masters after our game.
The majority of my games are against masters players with them losing fewer than I am winning... why wont it just promote me =[
12 means that your adjusted points are roughly the same as his MMR. 10 means that his adjusted points are slightly less than your MMR. That information alone could either mean that you had higher points than him (if your MMRs were equal) or a higher MMR than him (if your points were equal). How many adjusted points did he have at the time of your game? If it's close to 0, then you haven't earned enough to cross the confidence buffer necessary for a mid-season promotion. Leagues are "sticky" as Lysenko said. We don't know what exactly the confidence buffer is in terms of points or MMR, but please let us know the adjusted points of your opponents at the time of each match (work backward along their match history as necessary) so we can use that to find out, once you actually do get promoted.
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Guess I am just on that border
i lost 10 - 265 adjusted points - he wins 11 - 178 adjusted points
i lost 10 - 242 adjusted points - he wins 12 - 163 adjusted points
i win 12 - 222 adjusted points - he lost 10 - 1 adjusted points
i win 12 - 198 adjusted points - he lost 11 - 13 adjusted points
points approximately adjusted for the time that we played.
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Have a little question about my diamond rank :
I'm 8th of my diamond league with 530 points in 30 games (and i had a big win streak last week)...
I still don't play against master players but i'd like to know how far i am from master league? 
Here is my sc2 ranks profile : http://www.sc2ranks.com/eu/205613/uTNys
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United States12248 Posts
On February 02 2012 21:45 Nys wrote:Have a little question about my diamond rank : I'm 8th of my diamond league with 530 points in 30 games (and i had a big win streak last week)... I still don't play against master players but i'd like to know how far i am from master league? Here is my sc2 ranks profile : http://www.sc2ranks.com/eu/205613/uTNys
There are several clues that you can use, and they're in order of importance:
- What percentage of your games are against Master league players? You said you don't play against them, so that's an indicator that you're probably pretty far off.
- What are your adjusted points versus the adjusted points of other players in your division? Currently, you have (560 [total bonus pool from Master league] * 0.58 [accrual rate difference]) = 325 bonus pool spendable in your division. You have 541 - 325 = 216 adjusted points while your #1 player has 779 - about 310 = 469 and he's still not promoted yet. This probably means you're in a low tier division, meaning more MMR (and by extension more points) is required before you start meeting Master league players. Assuming you're in the lowest or close to the lowest division tier, you'll start meeting Master players if you manage to increase your MMR and adjusted points by another 200 or so. The promotion barrier is beyond that at probably 300 or 400 more.
- Compare your adjusted points to the guidelines from this chart: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/Battle.net_Leagues#Points These govern the approximate point thresholds for the bottom tier of any given league at the time of a season rollover. (I just noticed that someone changed it, give me a few moments and I'll have it changed back. Anyway it should read 535 for Diamond -> Master).
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I just don't really understand what adjusted points means, and how know how we got (maybe because i'm french :D)
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United States12248 Posts
On February 03 2012 06:32 Nys wrote:I just don't really understand what adjusted points means, and how know how we got (maybe because i'm french :D)
Adjusted points are the points you have excluding bonus pool.
Go in-game (not on the website) and look in your division. Let's call the amount of points displayed D. Look at how much bonus pool you have remaining and call it R. Find someone in your division who has 0 wins and look up their profile, then go to 1v1 so you can see how much bonus pool they have remaining. Because they have 0 wins, they will have the max bonus pool (since you can only spend bonus pool by winning), and we'll call this M. Adjusted Points = D - M + R.
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I'm new to SCII and am feeling very annoyed by the way the promotion system works.
So I play SCII since 3 weeks. Immediately went to multiplayer without having any clue at all. Got placed into Silver league. Lost like 15 out of 20 games. Realized how tremendously horrible I play. Went to teamliquid. Learned a build order - made it into top 25 in my silver division (playing vs silver and bronze players). Won another game. Got demoted.
Wooooh, way to motivate new players!
Alright, doesn't matter. I know I suck hard and so I get some time to practice a lot with people that suck too and it should be fun. Always stay positive!
So now I've won 170 games, have 1100 points and play almost exclusively vs Silver. Top 8 silver, Top 25 silver, some top 50 silver and very rarely vs top 8 bronze.
Y U NO PROMOTE ME?
I feel like the system is artificially sticky and this is really demotivating. Yeah I know. If I would play better than I do now and have a hot winning streak until I'm exclusively matched vs top 8 silver - the system would probably promote me rather quickly.
But why would you want to promote someone into a league ONCE HE CRUSHES that league?!
I don't get it. I really don't. Well - I do get the idea behind the stickiness, but this is pushing ti too far and is just demotivating in my opinion.
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The case above is really strange, as for me, I recently reached 100 wins, Rank 3. As I watched a Zerg Bronze League Beginner Stuff (from Apollo maybe?), and he started from Rank 99. Took him 7 wins to get promoted to Silver.
I wonder how's that possible, I had it really often that I had a 4 winning streak against platinum & Silver, but I never got promoted really.
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nice write up Big props!
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Wow. very clever and very well illustrated. Loving it.
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On February 03 2012 11:47 MrBazinga wrote:
So now I've won 170 games, have 1100 points and play almost exclusively vs Silver. Top 8 silver, Top 25 silver, some top 50 silver and very rarely vs top 8 bronze.
Y U NO PROMOTE ME?
I feel like the system is artificially sticky and this is really demotivating. Yeah I know. If I would play better than I do now and have a hot winning streak until I'm exclusively matched vs top 8 silver - the system would probably promote me rather quickly.
Bronze is a tough case because it's such a huge range of skill levels. The good news is that you're VERY likely to get promoted when the new season comes, in my opinion. A couple more weeks at most.
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EPT
