EPTNBA Season 2017-2018 - Page 64
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 22 2017 03:42 JimmiC wrote: His plus minus is then artificialy bumped because you get pluses on offense and miss out on the minuses. Just another of the many reasons rapm is not a ranking system. do not conflate vanilla +/- with RAPM and DRPM. RAPM and DRPM are proprietary. you do not know how it works. no one does. i highly suspect DRPM does not take into account anything that goes on during offensive possessions. But that is just speculation. On December 22 2017 03:42 JimmiC wrote: I did watch the game. At 1.29 wiggins went in for gibson. Then at 49 gibson went back in for crawford. K love is a bad defender that is why lue pulls him. His plus minus is then artificialy bumped because you get pluses on offense and miss out on the minuses. Just another of the many reasons rapm is not a ranking system. I just used him as a obvious example of its failing but you are so invested in it being correct that instead of thinking about what might be inflating the stat you come up with elaborate reasons for why lue would place a top 5 defender on the bench. that is why i do not use vanilla +/- i prefer RAPM , APM and DRPM. along with on/off, opposition eFG, opposition TS%, and "points saved" to measure defense. plus , of course, the eye test. so here is Love. very strong on offense. weak on defense. over all, a positive contributor to the team. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/GvWoU9X.jpg) and Love's RAPM #s are there for you to view. his DRPM is -0.03 so he is -0.03 on defense. i see no metrics indicating Love is an average defender. eye test: my vague recollections of occasionally watching Love is that he is an average defender. if someone who watches the Cavs a lot more than i do and knows what they are talking about says he is a below average defender.. i'd probably agree. if someone tried to say he is either the worst or best power forward on defense in the NBA i'd say you've got to do some slick talking to convince me based on what i've seen with my own eyes and what hte metrics say. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
when a player is somewhere between slightly above average to average to slightly below average that is when these metrics are at their weakest. the various spectrum of defensive metrics are good for picking out extremes both good and bad. .. such as Shabazz this year or Wiggins on defense last year... or Kyle Anderson on defense last year. once we saw Kyle Anderson in a full time role we saw that his defense was very good. THe consensus amongst most advanced stats guys (who are not Spurs fan boys) was that Anderson's defense would hold up in a full time role. On December 22 2017 06:19 JimmiC wrote: Which ends up.making it look worse instead of just accepting that it has flaws. Which everyone in the statistics community agrees. check my posts i've already done a dissertation on the strengths and weaknesses of RAPM. which again, is why i do not use it soley to make an evaluation. i use it for brevity. and all the charts i'm posting are not RAPM they are "Defensive Points Saved//Offensive POints Gained". | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 22 2017 06:37 JimmiC wrote: No you say you dont but in practice all your opinion and "eye tests" 100% match it. within the limits of how RAPM works, which i've already stated, RAPM has been solid at measuring the Raptors for several years now. if it were poor i would ignore it. now for some fun stuff. Dwight Howard... fuck you.. and the horse you rode in on. https://streamable.com/whwbh On December 22 2017 06:37 JimmiC wrote: I hope OG keeps at this pace. But if he doesnt (which is likely) it will be funny to read your excuses or complete change of opinion. players change over time... but since i started yapping about OG he's been playing great. after the 3rd game i saw him play all i could think was "how the fuck did this guy go #23?" | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 22 2017 06:47 JimmiC wrote: Did it? It showed patterson as a great player who would excell else where, he has not. It shows DeRozen to be not very good. Yet he keeps being the number 1 or 2 guy in usage and everything for a 50 win team. great? no. above average, yes. Above average compared to other players at his position. yes. Patterson is a smart and versatile player with knee problems. i posted that video of the end of the Philly game. PPat comes through after replacing Adams as the Center. Casey used PPatt at Center in his small ball lineups last year. Lowry's #s fell off a cliff when he had bursitis and played through it. RAPM can't predict future injuries.. it can measure past performance. RAPM predicted Lowry would play great in March and APril in 2016... but RAPM couldn't see the orange sized tumour growing on Lowry's elbow. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 22 2017 06:56 JimmiC wrote: Lowry has always been top rapm pg ... ... ... It is actually meant to attempt to predict future performance, that is why it uses so many assumptions. This again shows your lack of basic understanding about it. it is an attempt at predicting future performance and it fails when, in April 2016, that RAPM stat can't see the orange-sized tumour growing out of Lowry's right elbow and Lowry can't hit the ocean with a jump shot because he is in so much pain. but Lowry plays through it because .. that's just him. the orange-sized tumour was Lowry's inflammed bursa.. he had bursitis. this is what i mean about understanding the limitations of the stat. as long as you understand its limitations its solid. RAPM predicted Lowry would play very well offensively in March, April, and May of 2016. He couldn't shoot worth a damn. his elbow was fucked. so i was not expecting the stat to be accurate. i understand RAPM.. just fine. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
 any how, the irresistable force meets the immovable object tonight in Cleveland as Chicago takes its 7 game winning streak into ohio. i've got my popcorn and my 2 liters of iced tea ready! Embiid will miss his 3rd straight game after playing 49 minutes in a triple overtime game. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/o1FyHuw.png) Why the feck is Thibs using only a 7 man rotation in the regular season? | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
"Meet the Worst Defensive Duo In the NBA: The 2 Stooges.. Towns and Wiggins" The stuff he says about their foot work is dead bang on the money. On December 22 2017 12:52 Twinkle Toes wrote: Why the feck is Thibs using only a 7 man rotation in the regular season? ya a 7 or 8 man rotation in December is nuts. he is really pissed off with Shabazz playing like crap and took away his minutes and for a while just played his starters more. However, Thibs has moved away from this short rotation lately. Because Wiggins shooting has been so bad he's been using Crawford more in place of Wiggins and using Georges-Hunt more. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
One person has already made up his mind about some conclusions. He pulls out arbitrary stats to support these conclusions but refuses to recognize context and other data and stats that would provide a clearer picture. Other people point this out to him, but he would just obfuscate the discussion or change the topic just to avoid admitting his mistake. It is also becoming clear that he does not understand even the stats he is using, and is being douchey about it in the discussion. Look, stats are excellent and it is a fantastic time that we have all these data at our disposal right now. But we must at the very basic level understand what they are and how they are used and recognize that they are still incomplete and far from perfect since they are newish and complex. No one stat will indicate whether a person is good or bad. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong. We could resolve a lot of the debate here if we are only honest and clear with our points, and respond to the points that challenge ours, you know, like a real proper discussion. Otherwise, this thread can reach page 1000 without resolving whether Wiggins is a good or bad player and what are the reasons why that is so. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 22 2017 13:13 Twinkle Toes wrote: I'll try to summarize the recurring debate here: One person has already made up his mind about some conclusions. He pulls out arbitrary stats to support these conclusions but refuses to recognize context and other data and stats that would provide a clearer picture. Other people point this out to him, but he would just obfuscate the discussion or change the topic just to avoid admitting his mistake. It is also becoming clear that he does not understand even the stats he is using, and is being douchey about it in the discussion. Look, stats are excellent and it is a fantastic time that we have all these data at our disposal right now. But we must at the very basic level understand what they are and how they are used and recognize that they are still incomplete and far from perfect since they are newish and complex. No one stat will indicate whether a person is good or bad. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong. We could resolve a lot of the debate here if we are only honest and clear with our points, and respond to the points that challenge ours, you know, like a real proper discussion. Otherwise, this thread can reach page 1000 without resolving whether Wiggins is a good or bad player and what are the reasons why that is so. the Towns thing has been conceded already. are you saying Towns is an average or better? if u r .. i think you're the only one in here that thinks that. so here i'll put the video at the point where he talks about how crap Wiggins defense is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T890zCRYn0g#t=6m8s TL; DR Wiggins footwork is bad and his stances are improper for the situation he is in. he has bad court awareness and is often ball watching too long causing him to close out poorly/too late. he does not anticipate well. his BBIQ on defense is poor. all this is reflected in every defensive stat.. last year the man he covered had FG% only 0.1% worse than than when he was wide open. Wiggins is so bad at covering a jump shooter that he was in effect wide open because that is how Wiggin's opponent shot against him. if you want to watch 2 guys who know how to play defense check out Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson. If it were not for Butler and Gibson Minnesota would have the 30th best defense in the league instead of the 26th ranked defense. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
Game? | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
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