EPTNBA Season 2017-2018 - Page 62
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Compare the Wolves Ortg/Drtg and SRS with and without Lavine. Then adjust got Bjelca in the line up. What do you get? Short hint: it's almost impossible for someone scoring above league average to be that bad on defense unless they're using a ton of possessions | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
Jimmy Butler or Victor Oladipo? i say Butler. Oladipo's offense looks way more spectacular. Over all, i think Butler is a slightly better player. i'd say Butler is the best shooting guard in the NBA with Oladipo a close #2. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On December 20 2017 04:25 Ace wrote: That doesn't make any sense. Lavine was above average offensively last year and was the Wolves 3rd best player. How is it possible his defense weighed down his offense that much? Bjelca being in for Lavine and them going .500 was due to that one variable changing? Be detailed. That's what happens when people cherry pick on a bad stat and base all their favorite conclusion on that. It's like saying a book is bad because all it has are periods. The stats are useful but leads to a lot of abuse, that's why it is important to include provide a holistic picture and assume that the stat is not the be-all end-all indicator of a players value. That's why it's easy to identify people who know and do not know how they are used and what they mean. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 20 2017 06:06 Ace wrote: Or another way to out it since you claim his defensive ability weighs down his offensive contributions: Compare the Wolves Ortg/Drtg and SRS with and without Lavine. Then adjust got Bjelca in the line up. What do you get? Short hint: it's almost impossible for someone scoring above league average to be that bad on defense unless they're using a ton of possessions there are lots of above average offensive guys whose defense is very weak and they end up as bench players primarily inserted when 2+ of the other team's weaker players are on the floor. Kyle Korver and Lou Williams come to mind... Jamaal Crawford as well. The problem with using Ortg versus Drtg as a direct comparison with Minnesota is that they were 31-51 but only -44 in points. Also, what Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are you talking about? the 1 based on actual possessions or the 1 where a boxscore estimate of possessions is employed? Lavine's #s are Offensive Rating: 106.5, Defensive Rating:110.1, Net:-3.6 Minnesota's overall defensive rating was 109.1. so he made their defense worse. And this is on a team that was -44 points after an 82 game season. its not like the team was -7000 points and was "less negative" due to Lavine. So he had a negative impact on the team.. both macroscopically with the WIns//Losses that i posted originally.. and microscopically with Offensive and Defensive ratings. On December 20 2017 06:31 Twinkle Toes wrote: That's what happens when people cherry pick on a bad stat and base all their favorite conclusion on that. It's like saying a book is bad because all it has are periods. The stats are useful but leads to a lot of abuse, that's why it is important to include provide a holistic picture and assume that the stat is not the be-all end-all indicator of a players value. That's why it's easy to identify people who know and do not know how they are used and what they mean. is there any NBA talk in this post? so r u saying the Bulls should play Lavine as a starter? in the G League? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 20 2017 07:15 JimmiC wrote: Im completely shocked that your opinion completely mirrors RAPM. Shocking shit. I think the best 2 gaurd is Harden. No i dont think he is a point though he handles lots. But its guessing messy deciding who plays what now. with the new tracking systems in NBA arenas the statistics will just continue to keep on getting better and better. it really is a great time to watch the NBA... isnt it little buddy? i've seen a lot of Oladipo and Butler lately. its mainly based on the eye test. it is interesting that RAPM has them both so close. last time i saw harden , in their loss to Toronto , he was the point guard for houston. i'm glad you're checking RAPM a lot these days. its great to have another convert. For several weeks Oladipo was ranked higher than Butler. it is very close though. Oladipo looked good again last night... you'll notice i posted the last 2.5 minutes of the Boston/Indy game. i use a mix of eye-test and various stats...and started watching RAPM when it first was published by ESPN. I started watching APM right from the beginning. APM was definitely a big step forward from Bowman's original +/-. For me, it just wasn't good enough. Anyhow, After 3 years of skepiticism ... RAPM sold me because it measured the Toronto Raptors players so very well. nice to have you on board! | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On December 20 2017 06:48 JimmyJRaynor wrote: there are lots of above average offensive guys whose defense is very weak and they end up as bench players primarily inserted when 2+ of the other team's weaker players are on the floor. Kyle Korver and Lou Williams come to mind... Jamaal Crawford as well. The problem with using Ortg versus Drtg as a direct comparison with Minnesota is that they were 31-51 but only -44 in points. Also, what Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are you talking about? the 1 based on actual possessions or the 1 where a boxscore estimate of possessions is employed? Lavine's #s are Offensive Rating: 106.5, Defensive Rating:110.1, Net:-3.6 Minnesota's overall defensive rating was 109.1. so he made their defense worse. And this is on a team that was -44 points after an 82 game season. its not like the team was -7000 points and was "less negative" due to Lavine. So he had a negative impact on the team.. both macroscopically with the WIns//Losses that i posted originally.. and microscopically with Offensive and Defensive ratings. is there any NBA talk in this post? so r u saying the Bulls should play Lavine as a starter? in the G League? With all due respect - you misunderstood the question. I want the Ortg and Drtg based on possessions used on bball reference. Secondly you don't understand how the stats work. Individual Ortg and Drtg do not stack. They aren't a players offense and defense: they are the Team's offense and defense when the player is on the court. There is a massive difference between them. This is why I asked you to compare it via SRS with and without Lavine so we could talk about lineups. Next, I use Wins Produced to get a measure of player skill. As I said before it's almost impossible for what you stated to occur to be real. Lavine comes out at above average there whereas Wiggins who played monster minutes is the negative. So what is the possibility here? Maybe Wiggins and Lavjne cant coexist? And then we'd look at Lavine without Wiggins and see he's still producing...and Wiggins can't produce without high usage. And maybe the same applies defensively where they are both below average but together they are disastrous. But hey maybe I'm just speculating 😁 | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 20 2017 07:53 Ace wrote: I want the Ortg and Drtg based on possessions used on bball reference. Secondly you don't understand how the stats work. Individual Ortg and Drtg do not stack. They aren't a players offense and defense: they are the Team's offense and defense when the player is on the court. There is a massive difference between them. This is why I asked you to compare it via SRS with and without Lavine so we could talk about lineups. that is exactly how i understand them and how i'm using them. and i'm arguing against stacking them. Minnesota's overall defensive rating is 109.1. Lavine's is higher than that. So that's bad. Please keep in mind .. this is a 1 year measurement about a player in his early 20s just coming off ACL surgery. i'm not saying he is doomed to be a horrible basketball player his whole career. I have not followed Lavine closely enough to have a reliable projection of his performance 2+ years into the future. Lavine was a poor defender last year man... the #s are there to back it. And, during ACL surgery rehab its hard to become a better defender. In fact, reactionary side-to-side movements on defense are probably the last thing a guy recovering from ACL surgery can do. I'll be shocked if Lavine plays even average defense this year. On December 20 2017 07:53 Ace wrote: So what is the possibility here? Maybe Wiggins and Lavjne cant coexist? And then we'd look at Lavine without Wiggins and see he's still producing...and Wiggins can't produce without high usage. And maybe the same applies defensively where they are both below average but together they are disastrous. But hey maybe I'm just speculating 😁 Wiggins and Lavine were a disaster on defense whenever they played together last year. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
On December 20 2017 08:15 JimmiC wrote: Who do you have enough info on to make reliable projections 2 years down the road? And please do 2 years from now Richard Jefferson will be retired. Tyus Jones will be better than Jeff Teague in 2 years. More seriously, If OG Anunoby was a Spartan in the movie 300, the movie would be called 1. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
anyhow, no Embiid tonight boys. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
any how, Hill is out tonight so Fox will carry the load and he is just coming off a leg injury. On December 20 2017 09:09 JimmiC wrote: the stats you live and breath you must? as i've told you on several occasions i employ a mix of the eye test and stats while respecting the limitations all stats have. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
The Rockets could shoot a 2-pointer on their next 774 shots and still have the highest 3-point rate in the league. They're not even 30 games into the season. The Rockets, and not the GSW, are the true revolutionaries of the 3pt game. Curry and Klay are great, but they are outliers. Morey and the Rockets have made it a core philosophy in their team strategy and it's working so well. It brings a tear to my eye watching Paul play so happily and take threes as if it was the most natural thing to him! | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
Pretty touching of the Philly guys to honour Air Canada the way they did tonight. Fox has been moving like crap ... i bet his leg is still bothering him. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18063 Posts
Embiid doesn't have any kind of brace or ice pack or anything on his knees or ankles or any place on his body.. so that is encouraging. Some pretty nice transition defense by Carter. Philly is 1-5 this year without Embiid.. and things ain't lookin' 2 good for them tonight. | ||
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