EPTand welcome clippers to the bottom of the league once again. lets see how excited ballmer gets now.
NBA Offseason 2017 - Page 17
| Forum Index > Sports |
|
zev318
Canada4306 Posts
and welcome clippers to the bottom of the league once again. lets see how excited ballmer gets now. | ||
|
ZenithM
France15952 Posts
| ||
|
zev318
Canada4306 Posts
On June 29 2017 01:46 ZenithM wrote: Inb4 the Clippers sweep the Rockets in the first round. no griffin no paul no reddick, nobody's gonna sign there. i mean i guess griffin COULD resign. starting lineup is gonna be something like, jordan, johnson/griffin(?), dekker?, williams, beverley. maybe some variation but its gonna be pretty terrible. im not sure playoffs are a sure thing if no griffin. | ||
|
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On June 29 2017 01:21 ZenithM wrote: This is some random-as-fuck, low sample-size stat. There aren't that many great players under 6'1 in the first place... Jerry West, Stockton and Iverson were playing pretty well at that age, and Chris Paul is in that category of talent. And CP3 isn't looking like he's slowing down on the court at all, his playstyle isn't too reliant on athletic ability anymore. He is referencing the data there is about point-guards and their prime years in relation to their height, specifically over/under 6'2. I am not sure if I've linked this before but I'll quote it for those w/o Insider. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19525455/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs "Is there empirical evidence that smaller point guards decline faster than their larger peers? Lowry and CP3 seem to be going against this line of thinking, but almost every point guard historically seems to have been borderline unstartable after age 34, excepting Stockton, Nash, Kidd, Cassell and Mark Jackson (surprisingly solid age-36 season)." -- Nick Kogan The way I've studied this in the past is to look at ratio compared to peak winning percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. A few years ago, I put together a list of players who had played at least nine seasons and at least 10,000 minutes and ended their careers between 2005 and 2010. That list had 21 players I labeled point guards. They divide rather evenly into 10 players 6-foot-2 or taller (the tall group) and 11 who were 6-foot-1 or shorter (the short group, and at 5-foot-9 I mean nothing disparaging by that). While those sample sizes are smaller (shorter) than ideal for this kind of study, the results are fascinating. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/5jicKb9.png) While the smaller point guards were for the most part effective immediately -- Brevin Knight's best season was his rookie year at age 22, while Damon Stoudamire's came in year three at age 24 -- the larger guards generally took longer to develop. Rod Strickland peaked at age 29, Gary Payton peaked at age 30, and Cassell did not reach his peak until age 34. So as a group, the taller point guards didn't hit their peak until age 30, much later than the smaller point guards (age 26, a little younger than the typical age-27 peak across all positions). Every year after age 27, the taller point guards were relatively better, often substantially so. That's the thing tho zenithm, if there is one point-guard who can be worth it, you wouldl think it would be CP3 right? It's tough to ask any wing to be worth it at 38 but some players would be worth the risk more than others, and I think CP3 would be up on that list. But going back to what is actually happening, there is no way CP3 does it w/o getting assured he is getting the 5-year extension. It is the whole reason, as president of the players' union, he pushed for the over-38 rule (you can sign a multiyear contract up to 38 instead of 36). It will be interesting to see what other stuff Morey has lined up since they still have to add stuff to make the salaries work. The Clippers do at least get something instead of nothing, so it is worth it for them. Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams on the same team though?? :D :D | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
| ||
|
JimmyJRaynor
Canada17474 Posts
On June 29 2017 01:21 ZenithM wrote: This is some random-as-fuck, low sample-size stat. There aren't that many great players under 6'1 in the first place... Jerry West, Stockton and Iverson were playing pretty well at that age, and Chris Paul is in that category of talent. And CP3 isn't looking like he's slowing down on the court at all, his playstyle isn't too reliant on athletic ability anymore. it is not a stat. its a question to find out if there is any track record of short point guards having even 1 great season as they age. i suspect there are almost none. West , Stockton, Iverson. Jerry West: 6'2" and stopped playing in the early 70s. That was 40+ years ago... game was too different. Stockton: 6'1" and he was solid but no where near as good as he was in his prime. Iverson: "ok" at 32, 33 and terrible after that. In hindsight, signing Iversion to a deal 2 years or less at moderate money makes sense if he were 32 like Paul is. 32/33 Iverson does not deserve max level money for those 2 years. so far Stockton is the only candidate where a 3+ year deal makes some sense. Scoring drops a lot and quickly as point guards hit age 32. https://playbook.draftkings.com/nba/a-look-at-aging-for-nba-guards ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/he8c5TW.jpg) Scoring is a lot bigger part of Lowry's and Paul's game compared to Stockton. And its the most vulnerable element of a PGs game as they age. after digging a bit more, I'd still stay away from any deal over 2 years for either Lowry or Paul. On June 29 2017 01:57 MassHysteria wrote: But going back to what is actually happening, there is no way CP3 does it w/o getting assured he is getting the 5-year extension. It is the whole reason, as president of the players' union, he pushed for the over-38 rule (you can sign a multiyear contract up to 38 instead of 36). that's hilarious. that chart you posted was on ESPN's public site some time ago for free. now its behind a paywall? oh well. | ||
|
ZenithM
France15952 Posts
It's a bit hard to speak of track record when we're talking about exceptional players. You don't need a precedent for everything, especially not if you're taking a risk on an all-time top 10 PG (Lowry isn't that, btw). I said Jerry West, you said the game was too different back then. Well I say the conditioning today is also different. Looking at his stat line, CP3 has been consistent for his whole stay at LAC, not showing any obvious sign of decline. I definitely understand your point that it is a risk in some form (CP3 has been a bit injury-prone too), but maybe that's a risk worth taking. | ||
|
JimmyJRaynor
Canada17474 Posts
On June 29 2017 01:57 MassHysteria wrote: That's the thing tho zenithm, if there is one point-guard who can be worth it, you wouldl think it would be CP3 right? thinking your 1 guy is the 1 and only guy that can be the exception to the rule is what gets GMs fired. The same thinking is going on in both Clipper-land and Raptor-ville. i hate to see Lowry go... watching 20 playoff games in 40 nights as Lowry struggled with his messed up elbow was magic.. but its over.. and it ain't ever happening again. On June 29 2017 02:43 ZenithM wrote: maybe that's a risk worth taking. CP3 is definitely a better risk than Lowry. | ||
|
MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:45 JimmyJRaynor wrote: i asked a question. you responded. thanks for ur input it sparked a bit of digging on my part. thinking your 1 guy is the 1 and only guy that can be the exception to the rule is what gets GMs fired. The same thinking is going on in both Clipper-land and Raptor-ville. IF you are saying no way he stays the same player until 38 then that's a pretty easy thing to agree with. There is no way the last few years are going to be worth it on per-year basis, he is 37-38. If HOU or whoever for that matter does that for CP3 or any player (lebron), they are accepting that and knowingly going all-out the next few seasons. When the time to pay come in those last few years, they will know what they are really paying for at that point. Judgement will come down to how things went...did they win a championship? Did they knock out GS in one of the playoffs? etc edit: ya Lowry is a tough one JimmyJ! Well both are tough really... CP3 could just sit on the outside and shoot for a few minutes per game later on | ||
|
JimmyJRaynor
Canada17474 Posts
On June 29 2017 02:43 ZenithM wrote: You don't need a precedent for everything, especially not if you're taking a risk on an all-time top 10 PG true, there are exceptions, the data on PGs at 32+ years of age experiencing drop off in scoring in comprehensive. the data MassHysteria provided about short PGs is important and valuable but only 21 players. Taken from MassHysteria's quote of the ESPN article While the smaller point guards were for the most part effective immediately -- Brevin Knight's best season was his rookie year at age 22, while Damon Stoudamire's came in year three at age 24 -- the larger guards generally took longer to develop. Rod Strickland peaked at age 29, Gary Payton peaked at age 30, and Cassell did not reach his peak until age 34. i'm pretty sure that in all sports tall athletes take longer to mature and peak than short athletes. | ||
|
Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
I don't think Ball is completely detestable, but I also don't think you should ascribe too much credit to him. Yes, there's a certain low cunning to him, but that's who he is. You don't turn that on and off. The problem with that strategy you're describing is that if it becomes disadvantageous, there's no guarantee he can shift tact. | ||
|
andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
| ||
|
Disregard
China10252 Posts
| ||
|
Disregard
China10252 Posts
But what really solidified Paul’s dissatisfaction with Doc was a proposed trade involving Carmelo Anthony last season. New York offered Carmelo and Sasha Vujacic to the Clippers in exchange for Jamal Crawford, Paul Pierce and Austin Rivers, a deal to which Rivers ultimately said no. That event led Paul to feel that keeping his son on the roster was more important to Doc than improving the team. So, ultimately, Paul lost both trust and faith in Doc. As one league executive put it, “Chris despises Doc. Ummm... Wow? LOL | ||
|
Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
| ||
|
nVme
952 Posts
On June 29 2017 06:44 Disregard wrote: Michael Eaves@ SportsCenter Ummm... Wow? LOL doc single handedly destroying a franchise for his son lelz | ||
|
nVme
952 Posts
On June 29 2017 07:42 nVme wrote: doc single handedly destroying a franchise for his son lelz doesn't help that he is also the pres, a shitshow like this was bound to happen, thats why there is a thing called a segregation of duties | ||
|
Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
| ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
| ||
