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On June 29 2017 03:47 Jerubaal wrote:
^There's also the fact that short players are more skilled than tall players.
I don't think Ball is completely detestable, but I also don't think you should ascribe too much credit to him. Yes, there's a certain low cunning to him, but that's who he is. You don't turn that on and off. The problem with that strategy you're describing is that if it becomes disadvantageous, there's no guarantee he can shift tact.
I think he can. IIRC, in one of his more sober interviews that I cannot remember where, certainly no Skip or SAS, he was asked how he would react if Lonzo wasnt chosen by the Lakers. He was level-headed enough to admit that Lakers was the goal, mostly because of the monetary opportunities it represents, but he added that Lonzo would play greatly with any team, and he would support it. And even if we assume it to be true that he cannot shift tact, so what? He has made it very clear plenty of times that he is doing it for money. You cannot hate a man for doing everything to market his assets, as long as he doesnt harm others. If he fails, the world will simply turn against him, which is the case anyway in our present liberal capitalist economy.
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I personally like coaches like Pop and Kerr who turn good teams into great teams. Jackson was great as a coach in doing that. Jordan was considered a selfish scorer who wasn't a winner before he came along. His failings as a gm shouldn't detract from that. They are two different skill sets.
Turning good into great is much harder than turning bad/mediocre into good. In the NBA, championship contenders pace themselves in the regular season. Plenty of coaches turn mediocre teams into good by simply going all out during the regular season and playing their starters more minutes (Hi, Thibs). And considering most of the teams are jumbled in the middle, breaking out of the pack in a random year is just due to randomness.
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On June 29 2017 22:32 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:
Dan Tony: "All your PGs are belong to us!"
The Genius of the Morey/CP3 trade:
- Harden fronted the "negotiations" as FO cannot do so.
- FO dangled Houston's non tax-equalization, thereby 6.5% tax rate, allowing CO3 to earn more than the contract
- S/T allows CP3 to fall within the CBA 38-yo rule, as his 5th max year fall on his 38th year
- Technically the trade in financial value would have had to include either Ariza or Gordon. Houston worked under the cap and packaged it with players salary in order to give room for the ~18m needed to get CP3, thus saving Ariza and Gordon
ya, that was in the reddit post about abusing the CBA... thx for copying it over. to flesh that out and fully quote the reddit post i'll add his comment "This is why lawyers have positions in front offices."
reddit user WaswereV2 knows his stuff. his reddit posts are worth a read. he also follows the Raptors and provides some good insights.
On June 29 2017 22:22 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 01:08 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
i'd stay away from any point guard under 6'1", over 32 years old and wanting a long term deal.
In the last 30 years how many guys under 6'1" had great seasons after their 32nd birthday?
i'd stay away from both Paul and Lowry if they want a deal longer than 2 years. Let someone else screw up their salary cap. Another one of your "analytics"? Stop already dude. You are a known ignoramus, coward, and liar.
the discussion proved fruitful; you ignored it and arrived late.
i might not have a big fancy B.Math degree but i did take 2.5 years of university math as part of my program from a university with a good reputation in math.  do you have any input regarding the math in Rosenbaum's technique for calculating APM? If not , then i'm moving it to the math thread.
Chris Paul didn't get signed to a deal longer than 2 years. Houston gets a full year to see him up close and come up with reasons to lower his pay on an extension.
Lowry is still available. I wouldn't go near that guy for anything longer than 2 years. He will probably get a deal longer than 2 years for more than 20M+/year and that will be a mistake.
On June 29 2017 02:56 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
i'm pretty sure that in all sports tall athletes take longer to mature and peak than short athletes.
On June 29 2017 22:32 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:
Define tall and short?
i use "tall" and "short" to state things simply. In the same way you'll hear baseball people say "Tall pitchers take longer to mature than short pitchers".
however, i'll be more precise in my language: the age where peak level performance begins ...increases with height. treat height as a variable measured it in millimeters. do it across all sports and check the results. taller athletes peak at a later age.
Mike Tyson (for a heavyweight) , Wayne Gretzky (for a hockey player), and Marcus Stroman ( for a pitcher) are short.
Roy Halladay, Noah Syndergaard, Zdeno Chara, and Lennox Lewis are tall.
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On June 30 2017 01:02 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2017 00:36 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On June 29 2017 22:32 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:
Dan Tony: "All your PGs are belong to us!"
The Genius of the Morey/CP3 trade:
- Harden fronted the "negotiations" as FO cannot do so.
- FO dangled Houston's non tax-equalization, thereby 6.5% tax rate, allowing CO3 to earn more than the contract
- S/T allows CP3 to fall within the CBA 38-yo rule, as his 5th max year fall on his 38th year
- Technically the trade in financial value would have had to include either Ariza or Gordon. Houston worked under the cap and packaged it with players salary in order to give room for the ~18m needed to get CP3, thus saving Ariza and Gordon ya, that was in the reddit post about abusing the CBA... thx for copying it over. to flesh that out and fully quote the reddit post i'll add his comment "This is why lawyers have positions in front offices." reddit user WaswereV2 knows his stuff. his reddit posts are worth a read. he also follows the Raptors and provides some good insights. On June 29 2017 22:22 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:On June 29 2017 01:08 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
i'd stay away from any point guard under 6'1", over 32 years old and wanting a long term deal.
In the last 30 years how many guys under 6'1" had great seasons after their 32nd birthday?
i'd stay away from both Paul and Lowry if they want a deal longer than 2 years. Let someone else screw up their salary cap. Another one of your "analytics"? Stop already dude. You are a known ignoramus, coward, and liar. the discussion proved fruitful; you ignored it and arrived late. i might not have a big fancy B.Math degree but i did take 2.5 years of university math as part of my program from a university with a good reputation in math. do you have any input regarding the math in Rosenbaum's technique for calculating APM? If not , then i'm moving it to the math thread. Chris Paul didn't get signed to a deal longer than 2 years. Houston gets a full year to see him up close and come up with reasons to lower his pay on an extension. Lowry is still available. I wouldn't go near that guy for anything longer than 2 years. He will probably get a deal longer than 2 years for more than 20M+/year and that will be a mistake. On June 29 2017 02:56 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
i'm pretty sure that in all sports tall athletes take longer to mature and peak than short athletes. On June 29 2017 22:32 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:
Define tall and short? i use "tall" and "short" to state things simply. In the same way you'll hear baseball people say "Tall pitchers take longer to mature than short pitchers". however, i'll be more precise in my language: age of peak level performance increases with height. treat height as a variable measured it in millimeters. do it across all sports and check the results. taller athletes peak at a later age. Mike Tyson (for a heavyweight) , Wayne Gretzky (for a hockey player), and Marcus Stroman ( for a pitcher) are short. Roy Halladay, Noah Syndergaard, Zdeno Chara, and Lennox Lewis are tall. Great examples. How about some on the other side Dwight Gooden youngest pitcher to get 20 wins (6'3) Mario Lemiux (6'4) Dominated juniors, first shirt first goal as good as anyone at any age Lebron james, 6'8 Not a bad player Ali was 6'3 won a gold medal at 18. Also Gretzky is 6 feet tall. For hockey that is about average. You can find short and tall people who develop early and late. Listing a few "short guys" who developed early and few tall guys who developed late does not prove anything.
its pretty much established taller athletes take longer to get to peak performance because the taller you are the later in life you reach your peak height. one's nervous system is still adjusting and not fully settled in while one's body is still changing.
So a short athlete who stopped growing at 15 can have their nervous system fully settle into their body for 3+ years while an athlete who will eventually grow to over 6'5" is still growing and their nervous system is still trying to catch up.
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On June 30 2017 00:18 andrewlt wrote:
I personally like coaches like Pop and Kerr who turn good teams into great teams. Jackson was great as a coach in doing that. Jordan was considered a selfish scorer who wasn't a winner before he came along. His failings as a gm shouldn't detract from that. They are two different skill sets.
Turning good into great is much harder than turning bad/mediocre into good. In the NBA, championship contenders pace themselves in the regular season. Plenty of coaches turn mediocre teams into good by simply going all out during the regular season and playing their starters more minutes (Hi, Thibs). And considering most of the teams are jumbled in the middle, breaking out of the pack in a random year is just due to randomness.
Pop is a conundrum to me though. I have always wondered, but not enough to go on an in-depth research on it, why he was unable to at least repeat despite being perennial contenders.
Anybody knowledgeable could chime in?
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Aka how to bait an idiot.
Where to start...
On June 30 2017 00:36 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 22:32 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:
Dan Tony: "All your PGs are belong to us!"
The Genius of the Morey/CP3 trade:
- Harden fronted the "negotiations" as FO cannot do so.
- FO dangled Houston's non tax-equalization, thereby 6.5% tax rate, allowing CO3 to earn more than the contract
- S/T allows CP3 to fall within the CBA 38-yo rule, as his 5th max year fall on his 38th year
- Technically the trade in financial value would have had to include either Ariza or Gordon. Houston worked under the cap and packaged it with players salary in order to give room for the ~18m needed to get CP3, thus saving Ariza and Gordon ya, that was in the reddit post about abusing the CBA... thx for copying it over. to flesh that out and fully quote the reddit post i'll add his comment "This is why lawyers have positions in front offices." reddit user WaswereV2 knows his stuff. his reddit posts are worth a read. he also follows the Raptors and provides some good insights.
Where did I state that this is my own deep meditation and thorough analysis of the topic?
This shit is common knowledge, it was mentioned by webber as soon as the trade went public. heck kellerman was blabbing about it as well. It is a good point that is worth posting here since no one mentioned it yet.
On June 30 2017 00:36 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 22:22 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:On June 29 2017 01:08 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
i'd stay away from any point guard under 6'1", over 32 years old and wanting a long term deal.
In the last 30 years how many guys under 6'1" had great seasons after their 32nd birthday?
i'd stay away from both Paul and Lowry if they want a deal longer than 2 years. Let someone else screw up their salary cap. Another one of your "analytics"? Stop already dude. You are a known ignoramus, coward, and liar. the discussion proved fruitful; you ignored it and arrived late.
I present to you, fruitful discussion - all effectively contradicting YOUR BULLSHIT NONSENSE
andrewlt
Going by raw numbers, Stockton peaked before he made it to the NBA Finals. He was around 35-36 when he made it and he peaked much earlier. Houston doesn't care if CP3 is past his peak if he can make them better.
Jerubaal
^There's also the fact that short players are more skilled than tall players.
ZenithM
You were definitely talking about a stat. How many guys scored 20+ ppg for a season? That's a stat. How many guys whose first name is Lebron and last name is James have made 7 straight finals? Another stat. How many guys are returned by my intentionally way-too-constrained query? Oh, not many!
On June 30 2017 00:36 JimmyJRaynor wrote:i might not have a big fancy B.Math degree but i did take 2.5 years of university math as part of my program from a university with a good reputation in math. do you have any input regarding the math in Rosenbaum's technique for calculating APM? If not , then i'm moving it to the math thread.
Who the fuck cares about your degree??!!!
No one brought that up, stay on topic.
Remember, it all started with you proclaiming your grand knowledge of analytics.
I called you out after I read and realized you know nothing about it. I challenged you. What did you do?
You crawled back to your filthy hole.
I repeat this as it needs to be emphasized - You know nothing about analytics, so stop using it in your defense
At best, you could say that, "here, read this article that I liked" and leave it at that. Stop pretending that you actually understand anything about it.
On June 29 2017 02:56 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:56 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
i'm pretty sure that in all sports tall athletes take longer to mature and peak than short athletes. i use "tall" and "short" to state things simply. In the same way you'll hear baseball people say "Tall pitchers take longer to mature than short pitchers". however, i'll be more precise in my language: age of peak level performance increases with height. treat height as a variable measured it in millimeters. do it across all sports and check the results. taller athletes peak at a later age. Mike Tyson (for a heavyweight) , Wayne Gretzky (for a hockey player), and Marcus Stroman ( for a pitcher) are short. Roy Halladay, Noah Syndergaard, Zdeno Chara, and Lennox Lewis are tall.
PERFECT. I asked you a specific question and you dodge it, like the true coward that you are. Why? because you know that once you answer it honestly, empirical data will prove you wrong.
I am not very articulate with insults, and I can be very rough, so I'll just quote what was said about you:
JimmyJRaynor, stop spreading your verbal diarrhea
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no dodge, i increased the precision of my statement. you can pick any height as the dividing point and put the tall guys in 1 group and the short guys in another group and the short guys hit peak performance first. So, let's choose 6'2" point guards and use the ESPN investigation as one example.
so i'll move the Rosenbaum adjusted plus/minus stuff to the math thread. glad that is out of the way.
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He's a troll, ignore him. Discussion is better without him anyway.
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On June 30 2017 01:15 Twinkle Toes wrote:
He's a troll, ignore him. Discussion is better without him anyway.
no, the height impacting age of peak play discussion is legit.
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Suddenly this page became a wall of post. I had a question earlier that I'm curious to know the answer to, I'll just repost for visibility:
Pop is a conundrum to me though. I have always wondered, but not enough to go on an in-depth research on it, Why was he unable to at least repeat despite being perennial contenders?
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On June 30 2017 00:18 andrewlt wrote:
I personally like coaches like Pop and Kerr who turn good teams into great teams. Jackson was great as a coach in doing that. Jordan was considered a selfish scorer who wasn't a winner before he came along. His failings as a gm shouldn't detract from that. They are two different skill sets.
Turning good into great is much harder than turning bad/mediocre into good. In the NBA, championship contenders pace themselves in the regular season. Plenty of coaches turn mediocre teams into good by simply going all out during the regular season and playing their starters more minutes (Hi, Thibs). And considering most of the teams are jumbled in the middle, breaking out of the pack in a random year is just due to randomness.
Moreover, it is easier to perform well in the playoffs with marginally good players and get 50+ wins because mostly games are 1-shot.
Games are normally isolated and opponents cannot fully prepare against you.
It is during the playoffs when talent and strategy are exposed that the great ones emerge.
2015 Pacers, 2016 Hawks, 2017 Celtics are examples of this.
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Pop never builds , "now and only-now and screw-the-future" , super dominant teams. Most repeat winners have at least 1 year where they are super dominant.
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And IIRC, Spurs were practically one win away from championship a few times. Spurs would have seriously been the most dominant team had they won 7 or 8 in the entire 00s and 10s. Shaq/Kobe Lakers were the only legitimate threats.
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Yeah, maybe that's it.
In other news, how will D'Antoni work Harden and CP3? Other than Capella, surely they'll need a good 4 or 5 to take advantage of all the point guard power?
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uh oh. look out Raptor fans.
https://www.thestar.com/sports/basketball/2017/06/28/knicks-fire-phil-jackson-amid-feud-with-porzingis-anthony.html
"Dolan said he would not be involved in the operation of the team, adding that general manager Steve Mills would run the day-to-day business in the short term and that former Toronto executive Tim Leiweke would advise him and help develop a plan going forward."
Lewieke hired Ujiri away from Denver and gave Ujiri his first monster deal. Seeing how Ujiri reacted upon Lewieke's exit it appeared to me Ujiri genuinely liked working for Lewieke.
Lewieke did a great job in Toronto while spending a mother-fuck-tonne of cash. If Dolan gives Lewieke the same license to spend like crazy... look out.
EDIT: if Dolan gives Lewieke a similar full-time position to what he had with MLSE then i say Ujiri is going to NY. If Lewieke is just a part time guy around for emergency purposes then i say Ujiri stays in Toronto and Lewieke is just using the Ujiri gossip to make it seem like everyone wants to work for the Knicks.
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The West is just too loaded and I don't think the Spurs have had the really dominant teams the Lakers and Warriors have put out.
Bad injury luck and bad timing luck have also played a part in it. The Shaq/Kobe Lakers, Kobe/Gasol Lakers and current Warriors team all started after a Spurs championship. Injuries to Duncan after their first championship and Ginobili among others a few times after that played a role too.
The current incarnation of the Spurs has really only won one championship. The previous four were during the pound the post with Tim Duncan era. The fourth championship is a bit in the middle as Tony Parker was really great during that run. They were already in the process of copying some D'Antoni principles from facing his Suns regularly during the playoffs.
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On the rivers discussion from a page back. I have only followed the nba a couple of years, but I have always thought Doc looked incompetent because he never got his second line up to work. They tried different trades over and over, but the guys couldnt play as a team. Let jamal crawford do his thing and hope for the best seemed to be the only "strategy". I feel like a more competent coach would have gotten better synergy.
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EPT
