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On June 27 2017 18:21 ZenithM wrote:
Myself I don't really understand the craze for advanced analytics. If you're just a fan, I don't see a near-future where these numbers matter. They aren't going to become barber-shop talk material anytime soon (imagine that: "Kobe is outside my top 20 all-time because of that VORP dawg!"). And awards are not decided on their basis (case in point, these awards).
If you're a professional, a scout or a coach, then this would obviously seem like a good set of extra tools to use to prepare better. But what good are aggregate numbers like WS/VORP/whateverPM? JimmyJ says it's good at identifying the very best and very worst players, and I think that's fair. Problem is, we don't really need metrics for that :D. You can make some mistakes, but overall the top players are quite clearly identified. And for all the other players, what you need is understand WHY they bring some value or not when they're on the court, you don't really need that single number.
Analytics is crucial and very important for management and coaches. In a game of constant adjustments, constant roster match-ups, and billions of dollars, any and all advantage is welcome.
For early adapters such as the Spurs, it allowed Pop and the players to cycle players across the duration of the entire season, to take advantage of 3 and D players despite his vehement media protests, and to design offensive and defensive plays that maximizes their players.
This system is put on steroids by the warriors who in turn even methodically manage players based on court mileage, lactic levels, and o2/co2 ratio. I am talking about the medical and physiological aspect of the game that uses sophisticated metrics.
Let me go back to performance analytics. Like I said, coaches and management take full advantage of it, and use it to bridge the gap between eye test and box scores. It provides a robust explanation as to why otherwise middle tier guys like battier, ariza, and horford are premium players when used properly.
It also provides deeper appreciation of the games of curry and kawhi other than their normal point production and defense.
For example, other than the fact that currys long range threes are traditionally bad shots and should and will never be taught to young players, his value is more than the fact that he can consistently make these shots above the minimal threshold of efficienvy, even if we place the baseline at the league average of 40%.
Analytics could explain why curry MIGHT be a more potent offensive option than jordan. This is were it gets a bit messy. But this is a good thing because it means that the system has value and can still be improved.
For us regular fans however, the game is about enjoyment and the spectacle. And for that, box scores are often enough. Which is why it is retarded and stupid for people like JimmyJRaynor to flaunt analytics here when it is obvious that he knows nothing about it and is not even asked about it.
On June 27 2017 21:20 JimmiC wrote:
If you read articles by someone like zach lowe who integrates the advanced stats with basketball knowledge to take a comprehensive look at players ot teams it can be very interesting. Other wise its just people puking out numbers to try to feel smart. There is a weird subset of people that dont even enjoy the sport, never played, and cant apply the numbers but think they know everything because they cab look up advanced stats.
Incidentally, there is one in this thread.
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What I meant is that the single aggregate type of measures is probably almost completely useless for the coaching/scouting staff. No point trying to assign a single number to assess a guy's production, because first, that number will always have its biases and flaws, and second, the way you use that player on the court is the most important thing, especially for players who won't touch the ball that often. Single aggregates don't allow you to troubleshoot why something is working well or not.
The more interesting stats imo are the ones that take into account the plays and situations. Like, Player X makes 30% more 3s from the left wing than the right, or the opponent scores 0.3 ppp less when Player Y is involved in the P&R defense.
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On June 27 2017 23:20 ZenithM wrote:
What I meant is that the single aggregate type of measures is probably almost completely useless for the coaching/scouting staff. No point trying to assign a single number to assess a guy's production, because first, that number will always have its biases and flaws, and second, the way you use that player on the court is the most important thing, especially for players who won't touch the ball that often. Single aggregates don't allow you to troubleshoot why something is working well or not.
The more interesting stats imo are the ones that take into account the plays and situations. Like, Player X makes 30% more 3s from the left wing than the right, or the opponent scores 0.3 ppp less when Player Y is involved in the P&R defense.
I would agree, but the math person in me hopes that the mythical number exists and can be found.
But realistically speaking, there is a lot of truth in what you say. The fact that not eveybody plays the same way or even assumes the same role makes this very difficult. If you add other ridges such as fatigue and non-game factors, it is clear that at best, at present, analytics is best used only as a guide and not as a hard rule.
Which is why absolute statements about player values like the ones JimmyJRaynor makes is laughable in its ignorance.
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wrong thread, thought it said 2017
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On June 27 2017 23:20 ZenithM wrote:
What I meant is that the single aggregate type of measures is probably almost completely useless for the coaching/scouting staff. No point trying to assign a single number to assess a guy's production, because first, that number will always have its biases and flaws, and second, the way you use that player on the court is the most important thing, especially for players who won't touch the ball that often. Single aggregates don't allow you to troubleshoot why something is working well or not.
The more interesting stats imo are the ones that take into account the plays and situations. Like, Player X makes 30% more 3s from the left wing than the right, or the opponent scores 0.3 ppp less when Player Y is involved in the P&R defense.
Those are the ones I like. Writers like Zach Lowe frequently use those kinds of numbers in their articles. It's a management adage that good numbers are actionable. If management sees that players shoot X% less accurately near the rim when Draymond Green or Rudy Gobert is nearby, that is something that can affect game planning and roster building.
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Do you know where they get this kind of stats from btw? I also see them used quite well by BBALLBREAKDOWN (Youtube channel).
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I think nba.com has some of them. It's frequently linked on the articles. It's under stats->tracking, I believe.
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On June 27 2017 12:20 Scarecrow wrote:
Arbitrary stat-line achieved through padding and a meh record apparently gets MVP. Really thought media voters would have more integrity but I guess hype and Trump america doesn't value precedence, efficiency or defense.
Stand in the ashes of a trillion dead souls, and ask the ghosts if honor matters.
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I have an unpopular opinion: Lavar Ball is actually a hero. I am not saying he is a good person (he may or may not be, I don't have enough information about that and that is another topic), but what I'm saying is he is doing the correct moves.
Thesis Statement - Lavar is just being a good father and businessman, and is doing all he can to hype and bring the attention to his talented son/s (who indeed has/have immense potential) and to maximizing their family's financial gains form such talent.
- - His loud-mouthed omnipresence in the months and weeks before the draft were all aimed to draw attention to Lonzo Ball and to generate enough traction for the Lakers goal.
- His egotistical megalomaniac self-obsession and self promotion are all attempts to draw attention to his brand. The mere fact that everyone is talking about it, even in the height of the playoffs and finals, for better or for worse, is proof that this marketing effort is successful
- Demanding $1billion for his sons contract from Nike and other sports brands might be an overreach, but it is a product of his belief in the talent, potential, and value of his sons... which brings us to
- Putting out their own brand of shoes and apparel is a brave if not insane move. But he truly believes in his sons and, I paraphrase him "I created him, trained him, and I will sit back and let others profit off of him?" To be sure, there is ample precedence of superstars (who have way more potential than Lonzo) who put themselves under the safe umbrella of international corporations. This is a plus for Lavar, the guy is crazy. It's a long shot the BBB will succeed on its own in the long run (I believe sooner rather than later, no matter what happens to Lonzo's career, Nike will buy them out), but imagine if they succeed. We would all look back on it as a genius move. In case they don't succeed, depending on the degree of nonsucess/failure, BBB will still be of minor interest to the big companies.
- I used to hate him a lot, but even casual fans who watch his interviews can see that it is partially for show, much like Conor McGregor in the UFC. He is genuinely trolling, showboating, being as ridiculous as he could be, all for the sake of getting eyes and ears to turn to him. He is even chuckling to his antics during interviews. He is a self conscious troll with a big marketing idea.
- And after reading that he has been consistently putting up training programs for kids and is a relatively beloved character in his town, it makes his case more interesting
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My opinion of him has changed recently too. I just knew he was a douchebag and an attention whore from talk on the Internet, but I respect him because he genuinely seems like he cares a lot for his sons. And I think it's also a smart move from him to sacrifice his public image/reputation by being so loud everywhere. That way his sons both share that Ball brand attention AND keep their own reputation clean because they don't need to do much. It's quite douchy for the other young dudes in the draft because the talk is all about Lonzo and even Lavar himself, but I respect the "family-first" mentality.
If I was in a position where I can further my children's careers if I just act like a clown on TV with little to no repercussion for them I'd probably do it.
It still remains to be seen if Lonzo will live up to the expectations though, it would fall a bit flat if he was absolutely terrible in the NBA :D. I think the other father-son approach of letting your kid grab what he deserves on his own has merits too.
I don't care much for BBB though. It won't go far if Lonzo himself isn't good.
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On June 28 2017 22:40 ZenithM wrote:
My opinion of him has changed recently too. I just knew he was a douchebag and an attention whore from talk on the Internet, but I respect him because he genuinely seems like he cares a lot for his sons. And I think it's also a smart move from him to sacrifice his public image/reputation by being so loud everywhere. That way his sons both share that Ball brand attention AND keep their own reputation clean because they don't need to do much. It's quite douchy for the other young dudes in the draft because the talk is all about Lonzo and even Lavar himself, but I respect the "family-first" mentality.
Ah yeah. I missed this one. He is acting like a shock absorber to all the hate so that his sons get all the attention but none of the negativity, I would be surprised if they have discussed this thoroughly already. Watching WWE last night with Lavar going batshit crazy for show, and you can see the children obviously enjoying it, thinking "i wonder how far dad will take it this time." The "Stay in yo lane" incident was rude, but I give it a pass as an emotional father protecting the reputation of his children after being attacked by the media. But everytime I see them, it seems like they are all on the same page, having fun, Even in the rare interviews with Lopnzo, you can't really say that this is a douchey family like the Kardashians, which Lavar is trying to copy for sports television.
On June 28 2017 22:40 ZenithM wrote:
I don't care much for BBB though. It won't go far if Lonzo himself isn't good.
And this I think is the end game. Lavar has such confidence in his son that he is willing to take it all just so his son can do his thing and prove that he is indeed worth they hype and the $499.
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Come on now, the triangle is a really nice scheme when you have the absolute best offensive threat in the game. It's even better when you have the two best, in fact!
Get me Durant and Anthony Davis to the Knicks and let Jackson work his magic.
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Can Dolan convince Masai Ujiri that he'll get the same level of autonomy in New York as he has in Toronto?
Ujiri is about to fill the Raptors GM position with a 32 year old internal guy who has precious little NBA exec experience. Ujiri has total control of everything in Toronto.
Ujiri's track record indicates he does not like doing the team president PR type work and prefers to stick to nuts and bolts basketball. He got handed more of the PR type "team figurehead" work in Toronto when Lewieke left.
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Chris Paul to Houston though, how do we feel about that?
Honestly I'm a bit disappointed to see Chris Paul next to Harden (I don't like Harden too much, and that's some weird ball-handling redundancy), but this should be interesting at least.
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i'd stay away from any point guard under 6'1", over 32 years old and wanting a long term deal.
In the last 30 years how many guys under 6'1" had great seasons after their 32nd birthday?
i'd stay away from both Paul and Lowry if they want a deal longer than 2 years. Let someone else screw up their salary cap.
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In the last 30 years how many guys under 6'1" and had great seasons after their 32nd birthday?
This is some random-as-fuck, low sample-size stat. There aren't that many great players under 6'1 in the first place...
Jerry West, Stockton and Iverson were playing pretty well at that age, and Chris Paul is in that category of talent. And CP3 isn't looking like he's slowing down on the court at all, his playstyle isn't too reliant on athletic ability anymore.
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The fit is questionable. Harden became an MVP candidate sliding into the PG position. Now he has to play more off the ball again in the SG position. We'll see if he can be as effective.
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EPT
