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On June 24 2017 12:50 andrewlt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2017 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
I think the key with all these stats is not to overate and not ignore. For some reason it feels like most people pick a side on advanced stats and either treat them like the bible or competently ignore. I think they are a tool that can tell you some things but the eye test still matters Well, I read up on the creator's description of bpm on bkref.com. He pretty much flat out says that the metric is pretty good on offense but extremely limited (read: useless) on defense. Most NBA advanced stats are generally more useful and accurate on offense. Defense is still much more dependent on the eye test. There are trackers nowadays that can measure contests but the popular advanced stats don't really use them. The stats still overuse defensive rebounds, steals and blocks which are notorious for putting stat chasers woefully out of position to actually play defense.
I would say box-score stats, not necessarily advanced stats, are a better gauge of offense than defense. But I agree with everything else. I actually edited that into my previous post a few minutes before you posted this too, great point.
edit: JimmyJ did also post the RPM (non box) stats, where Wiggins is also in the bottom 10 fwiw ..and WB and Harden's defensive impact is more attuned to where you probably think
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On June 24 2017 12:50 andrewlt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2017 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
I think the key with all these stats is not to overate and not ignore. For some reason it feels like most people pick a side on advanced stats and either treat them like the bible or competently ignore. I think they are a tool that can tell you some things but the eye test still matters Well, I read up on the creator's description of bpm on bkref.com. He pretty much flat out says that the metric is pretty good on offense but extremely limited (read: useless) on defense. Most NBA advanced stats are generally more useful and accurate on offense. Defense is still much more dependent on the eye test. There are trackers nowadays that can measure contests but the popular advanced stats don't really use them. The stats still overuse defensive rebounds, steals and blocks which are notorious for putting stat chasers woefully out of position to actually play defense.
Also, the "contested shot" stat is very dubious. For example, it has Durant's' famous G3 shot as contested. That might as.well have been pregame warmups.
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Thing is, it's a good development that we are finding new and more complex ways of valuing players and performance other than the traditional P/R/A/S/B/TO/F. It is not complete, and it is not perfect, but improvements are being made and this is a step to the right direction.
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Magic Johnson: "D'Angelo is an excellent player. He has the talent to be an All-Star. We want to thank him for what he did for us. But what I needed was a leader. I needed somebody also that can make the other players better and also [somebody] that players want to play with."
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On June 24 2017 12:50 andrewlt wrote:
Defense is still much more dependent on the eye test. There are trackers nowadays that can measure contests but the popular advanced stats don't really use them. The stats still overuse defensive rebounds, steals and blocks which are notorious for putting stat chasers woefully out of position to actually play defense.
defensive adjusted plus/minus does not incorporate rebounds, blocks, steals etc.
defensive adjusted plus/minus is very effective at identifying the very best and very worst defenders that play 30+ minutes/game.
On June 24 2017 14:50 Twinkle Toes wrote:
Thing is, it's a good development that we are finding new and more complex ways of valuing players and performance other than the traditional P/R/A/S/B/TO/F. It is not complete, and it is not perfect, but improvements are being made and this is a step to the right direction.
yep, new stats are slowly improving how players can be objectively judged. with any new stat many people do not understand its limits and where its weakest and why its at its weakest so they'll just throw the stat away as meaningless.
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Adjusted plus minus takes into account the quality of all other 9 people on the court. There are several Timberwolves with very good defensive APM. In fact, when Minnie's #2 defender went down late in the year as i noted in last year's thread Minnie's defense collapsed.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/sports/515339-nba-2016-17-season?page=61#1205
Adjusted +/- is basically a system of 600+ equations with the # of unknowns being the players who played in the NBA. You solve for the unknowns in an analogous way that you solve for a system of 2 equations and 2 unknowns in grade 9 math. Because there are more equations than unknowns, an overdetermined system, you solve for the unknowns ( which are the individual NBA players ) via Regression. Every NBA line up playing against each other is an equation with 10 unknowns with a (+) on the side of the team that scored more points during their time on the court.
As a "smell test" for the results on Wiggins check out his impact on team mates. There is a mountain of data on Wiggins playing with all levels of team mates over his 3 year career. He has yet to make any team mate better defensively. The vast majoritty of his mate's defensive efficiency declines in Wiggins presence. There are a few Wiggins team mates whose defensive efficiency stays the same.
http://www.82games.com/1617/1617MIN2.HTM
On the contrary, many Minnesota players experienced an improvement in their defensive efficiency in the presence of Nemanja Bjelica and Ricky Rubio.
Wiggins is 1 of the worst defenders in the NBA and finding that is the easiest thing for any advanced stat. The hard part of an advanced defensive stat is to determine whether or not a very slightly below average defender is as good as a dead-on average defender. That is a tough problem. Determining the worst in the league is easy and its been a solved problem for ~10 years now. The guy who solved this issue using Adjusted +/- was at the forefront of research in this area 14 years ago and he is now employed by Cleveland.
http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm
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Wiggins is a bad defender and that is part of his evaluation as a player. Watching him play defense in ~20 games this year he looked horrible. Not surprisingly , this season, every team mate defends worse in his presence.. examine the 82games.com 5 player lineup data to verify this fact with cold hard #s. In his career he has improved no one defensively.. a few team mates stayed the same. Wiggins is a defensive black hole.
where am i "bragging"? i use new statistical methods. try them out. if those methods make good predictions i hold on to them. if the new stats make lousy predictions i stop using them. The credit goes to guys like Dan Rosenbaum... not me.
my Raptor projections turn out to be more correct than any one else in the thread because i watch the Raptors more than any one else in the thread. this does not make me some kind of savant. more observations makes a huge difference.
i'm cautious with how i use advanced stats and default right back down to vanilla +/- as another smell test.
I'd rather hear other's opinions because you swing from not a top 5 player but multiple allstar. Pretty damn good. To one of the worst players and everywhere in between.
I've never said Wiggins was one of the worst players. I said he is one of the worst defenders. You are mischaracterizing my posts on Wiggins.
players improve as they move into their late 20s. Derozan was a below average player 5 years ago. He is now an all star. Wiggins will ascend along a similar path of improvement going from below average player to allstar. its a projection i've made several times and it has not changed. For completeness, I am not claiming he is a Derozan clone.
without a rebuttal to the "smell test" i employ this convo can't go any further.
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The goal of analytics should be to bridge the gap between "black box" statistics and observable actions on the court.
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here is a closer look at how adjusted plus/minus is calculated.
http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm
the only real "hocus pocus" is regression on an overdetermined system of equations. the rest is counting every ball that goes in the hoop.
nice work by Rosenbaum.
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again you are mischaracterizing my comments. right now, Wiggins is a below average player because his defense is very bad.
On June 25 2017 09:03 JimmiC wrote:
"the super advanced stats are going to look bad because Minnesota is a sub .333 team. everything u measure will look bad."
i said that when minnesota was a sub .333 team. they are no longer a sub .333 team. furthermore, that quote was discussing team advanced stats drawn from the small sample size of the very start of the year when minnie started 6-19. not individual stats drawn across several years of Wiggins playing in the NBA. Several Timberwolves have solid individual advanced stats last year.
according to advanced stats minnesota has 3 good defenders (Gorgui Dieng , Rubio, and that guy that got hurt late in the year), 3 very bad defenders ( lavine, wiggins, townes), and the rest of the roster muddled between below average and above average.
the lower the # of the group of 3 good defenders (Rubio, Dieng or Bjelica) on the floor the worse Minnie's defense got last year. this was apparent and observable in games which is why i said their defense was fucked when Bjelica got hurt. which it was.
Lavine's exit will improve minnesota's defense. it'll interesting to see if Lavine's defense improves under a different system in chicago.
So you have allowed to him be a 4out10 to the 6th best player in the league and you can still feel like you were right!
the probability of Wiggins evolving into the 6th best player in the league is close to zero. after seeing giannis antetokounmpo in the playoffs he looks to be on that path to being a top 6 player in the league. i can not make a more granular projection than what i've provided due to the limited # of observations i've made of Wiggins. My more granular projections occur with the Raptors.
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I have to say I'm with team JimmyJ on this one, but for disclosure sake I'm a big proponent of RAPM.
Wiggins is flashy but not a good NBA player as of now. I think Derozan is a good comparison for him, particularly when compared to early years of DeMar. Wiggins could develop into a good NBA player but I don't see him cracking top 20 type player. I could be wrong.
But he needs to get a shitload more efficient relative to his usage and improve his D a lot. Best case I see for Wiggins is a Derozan or Michael Redd but I think his career will be more Rudy Gay.
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Not good may be a little harsh. Wiggins makes a positive impact on offensive end but needs to get more efficient to take his game up a notch. Particularly if he's going to maintain a usage rate near 30.
His defensive impact is diabolical though. It's up there with worst in the NBA, which is super frustrating as he has the physical tools to be so much better but just doesn't seem to care.
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I wouldn't disagree that he still has room to grow but it's concerning that he isn't improving as much as he needs to an both ends of the floor.
I see a Rudy Gay/Michael Redd career for Wiggins. I think he'll be a guy who puts up good numbera but doesn't really impact games the way the best players do. That's just my hot take though. He could be a lot better and good luck to him--I hope he makes it. Just don't see it happening.
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Jimmy gonna Jimmy but he makes some fair points about the Wiggster I agree with.
The hype does work both ways for him though because that plus his raw numbers are going to get him a max when he hits RFA. Once he's making $150 mill a year then we'll really see the blowtorch applied to his game.
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EPT
