NBA Offseason 2017 - Page 12

On June 24 2017 15:30 Twinkle Toes wrote:
Magic Johnson: "D'Angelo is an excellent player. He has the talent to be an All-Star. We want to thank him for what he did for us. But what I needed was a leader. I needed somebody also that can make the other players better and also [somebody] that players want to play with."

On June 24 2017 23:15 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Adjusted plus minus takes into account the quality of all other 9 people on the court. There are several Timberwolves with very good defensive APM. In fact, when Minnie's #2 defender went down late in the year as i noted in last year's thread Minnie's defense collapsed.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/sports/515339-nba-2016-17-season?page=61#1205

Adjusted +/- is basically a system of 600+ equations with the # of unknowns being the players who played in the NBA. You solve for the unknowns in an analogous way that you solve for a system of 2 equations and 2 unknowns in grade 9 math. Because there are more equations than unknowns, an overdetermined system, you solve for the unknowns ( which are the individual NBA players ) via Regression. Every NBA line up playing against each other is an equation with 10 unknowns with a (+) on the side of the team that scored more points during their time on the court.

As a "smell test" for the results on Wiggins check out his impact on team mates. There is a mountain of data on Wiggins playing with all levels of team mates over his 3 year career. He has yet to make any team mate better defensively. The vast majoritty of his mate's defensive efficiency declines in Wiggins presence. There are a few Wiggins team mates whose defensive efficiency stays the same.
http://www.82games.com/1617/1617MIN2.HTM

On the contrary, many Minnesota players experienced an improvement in their defensive efficiency in the presence of Nemanja Bjelica and Ricky Rubio.

Wiggins is 1 of the worst defenders in the NBA and finding that is the easiest thing for any advanced stat. The hard part of an advanced defensive stat is to determine whether or not a very slightly below average defender is as good as a dead-on average defender. That is a tough problem. Determining the worst in the league is easy and its been a solved problem for ~10 years now. The guy who solved this issue using Adjusted +/- was at the forefront of research in this area 14 years ago and he is now employed by Cleveland.
http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm

On June 25 2017 23:10 Twinkle Toes wrote:
I'm loving it. One know-it-all name drops and terms drops about something he knows nothing about, then another know-it-all makes his own claim of arrogance/ignorance!

On June 26 2017 00:07 xwoGworwaTsx wrote:

Hey, I'm taking exception if you are talking about me.

It is he after all who throws out all these big stat words and waive it around people's faces as if they were words uttered by god himself. I would like to explain why he is wrong, in full mathematical detail, but the ball is on his court since all throughout this thread he is the one doing all the term dropping.

NOTE: No self-respecting mathematician or statistician would make bold absolute claims without any context

NOTE 2: Not specially since the methods and equations are relatively new

NOTE 3: And not most especially without providing consideration for regression ridges and other variations.

TLDR: He is the one making all this absolute claims which are biased and are an abuse of data. He barely even understands it and would make for a good leader of the "iamveysmart" group

On June 26 2017 09:04 Jerubaal wrote:


No offense, but this is a rather "Jimmy-like" post. You've made a lot of theses, but you haven't really explained exactly what you mean or given any evidence.

We're all extremely interested to hear what you have to say about it.