EPTit was good to get some data about Wiggins without Lavine on the floor. that makes the advanced defensive stats more reliable.
NBA Offseason 2017 - Page 10
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
it was good to get some data about Wiggins without Lavine on the floor. that makes the advanced defensive stats more reliable. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On June 24 2017 00:41 MassHysteria wrote: No one is writing him off, just stating facts. edit: + Show Spoiler + I'm curious who that huge outlier is. Or even the second best one. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
On June 24 2017 02:12 JimmiC wrote: 99% of players will never be a top 5 player. Butler who we are all gushing about is not a top 5 player. All wiggins needs to do to be a huge asset for the twolves is be a great 3rd best player. Which I think he can do. Do you have the advanced stats on wiggins post Lavine? What has been posted so far is his full season numbers. i love aggressive agreement posts.  i'd say 5% of players make it into the top-5 for 1 year of their career. Wiggins will be a Derozan level of All Star.his defensive xRAPM got worse after Lavine got hurt. its his worst defensive performance of his career. he went from -2.5 to -3.16 in the ~2.5 months Lavine was hurt. http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM | ||
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ZenithM
France15952 Posts
On June 24 2017 02:12 andrewlt wrote: I'm curious who that huge outlier is. Or even the second best one. I think the first one is 2016-2017 Westbrook. Raw numbers: http://nbamath.com/tpa-database/nba-2016-17-tpa-scores/ And proof that it's neither Lebron nor Jordan: twitter link Edit: The second point is 2016-2017 Harden. The graph says that it's from all individual seasons since 1973 but that's just wrong, not enough points, the guy just reused the same template. It's just the 2016-2017 regular season. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On June 24 2017 02:38 ZenithM wrote: I think the first one is 2016-2017 Westbrook. Raw numbers: http://nbamath.com/tpa-database/nba-2016-17-tpa-scores/ And proof that it's neither Lebron nor Jordan: twitter link Edit: The second point is 2016-2017 Harden. The graph says that it's from all individual seasons since 1973 but that's just wrong, not enough points, the guy just reused the same template. It's just the 2016-2017 regular season. Yup, WB and Harden, it was just for the last season. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
TLDR; Wiggins will evolve into an above average player and make the all star team once and a while. that's my projection. Right now he is below average player. Nash will remain the best Canadian ever to play in the NBA. interesting highlights from an Ainge interview. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/6j1a2f/danny_ainge_on_bostons_985_the_sports_hub/ "Minnesota gave up too much to acquire Butler". This comment will bring out the haters in droves. | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On June 24 2017 02:53 MassHysteria wrote: Yup, WB and Harden, it was just for the last season. I mean the outlier in the top right, who also has to be good on defense. There's no way that is either Westbrook or Harden. I'm more inclined to believe that Harden is the outlier on the bottom right, though that could be IT2. Looking at the raw numbers, the one on the top right is indeed Westbrook, which is incredibly odd. Only thing I can think about is that the defensive numbers overrate the defensive rebounds his big men gift to him and are not about playing defense at all. A glance at the top "defensive" players on that ranking shows that it puts too much weight to raw defensive rebounding stats. | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
edit:since based on box-score it is obviously a better gauge for offense than defense | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
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ZenithM
France15952 Posts
On June 24 2017 06:47 andrewlt wrote: I mean the outlier in the top right, who also has to be good on defense. There's no way that is either Westbrook or Harden. I'm more inclined to believe that Harden is the outlier on the bottom right, though that could be IT2. Looking at the raw numbers, the one on the top right is indeed Westbrook, which is incredibly odd. Only thing I can think about is that the defensive numbers overrate the defensive rebounds his big men gift to him and are not about playing defense at all. A glance at the top "defensive" players on that ranking shows that it puts too much weight to raw defensive rebounding stats. One thing worth mentioning is that Westbrook isn't a terribly bad defender according to metrics like DRPM. He's slightly in negative but Harden is way worse. Harden just doesn't expand any effort at all in defense. Westbrook at least gambles for steals and jumps for rebounds :D. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Speaking of gambles: Caboclo is running out of time. On the positive side: he was the best player in the D-League finals this year. http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/nba/new-raptors-forward-og-anunoby-says-everything-happens-reason/ | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On June 24 2017 11:22 ZenithM wrote: One thing worth mentioning is that Westbrook isn't a terribly bad defender according to metrics like DRPM. He's slightly in negative but Harden is way worse. Harden just doesn't expand any effort at all in defense. Westbrook at least gambles for steals and jumps for rebounds :D. I disagree. Harden was horrible in the last couple of years, but made good improvements on his defense this year, and he has his stats to show for it. Westbrook on the other hand has the worst possible defense for a franchise star. The steals and the rebound you mentioned are analytically detrimental to his team as a matter of fact. Westbrook always goes for those risky reaches and steals that often lead to 4 on 3 advantage for his opponents. They are not the Ginobili or Chris Paul type defensive reads that anticipate passing lanes and force players towards help. They are often wild irrational attempts that hurt the Thunders defensive schemes, whatever scheme they are running. His rebounds are also a negative. Notice this trend in the present guard-based teams to clear out the paint for guards to rebound. OKC runs a similar scheme, but on steroids. Kanter and Adams box out deliberately for Westbrook regardless of the situation for a couple of reasons. It allows the team to hit the ground running and proceed with their run and gun quicker than the defense could react. How much this Westbrook-rebound system hastens and improves this is still debatable. Second, it is allows for the Westbrook triple-double season. This is not a problem in and of itself. as there are advantages to running transition offense this way. But it can be abused, and Westbrook does not possess enough maturity nor IQ to avoid such abuses. How many times have we seen Westbrook leave his man early in order to clog the lane for the rebound? He also has the tendency to ball watch while he is looking for ways to pad his triple-double. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On June 24 2017 00:21 NonY wrote: Don't get fooled. Think about how much of the spotlight he stole from the other players. The draft is about the families only when the player gets interviewed and takes the opportunity to honor their family. The fact that he's orchestrated for so much of the draft coverage to be about him instead of the players is despicable. Doesn't matter that he composed himself last night. Being a jackass for your own gain is reprehensible but the idea that doing the exact same harm to society with your jackass behavior becomes okay if the benefit is for your kids is just wrong. People aren't expected to be perfect -- they can care more about themselves than others, they can care more about their family than strangers, they can care more about their country than other countries. But there are reasonable amounts of selfishness and preferential treatment allowed and then there are unreasonable amounts. He crosses the line. Just clear your mind and think "has this guy been a jackass?" and if the answer is yes, then don't let his motivations ameliorate his behavior. He's just a jackass. Not saying everything he does crosses the line. Not saying the media isn't responsible too. Etc etc there are a ton of angles to cover. Point is that he doesn't get a pass for bad behavior just because he's doing it for his kids. I'm trying to read what you said carefully. I agree, yes, he is a loud mouth egotistical jackass. Yes, he is annoying, Yes, he is doing it for personal gain. But in what way is he harming society by being a jackass? | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On June 24 2017 08:20 Jerubaal wrote: Stats give you a particular perspective. It's unlikely that any stat is going to give you a complete answer. Ringsss, Erneh... | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
On June 24 2017 11:39 Twinkle Toes wrote: Westbrook on the other hand has the worst possible defense for a franchise star. The steals and the rebound you mentioned are analytically detrimental to his team as a matter of fact. Westbrook always goes for those risky reaches and steals that often lead to 4 on 3 advantage for his opponents. They are not the Ginobili or Chris Paul type defensive reads that anticipate passing lanes and force players towards help. They are often wild irrational attempts that hurt the Thunders defensive schemes, whatever scheme they are running. interesting insight. do you watch a lot of OKC? i watch ~3 OKC games a year so its hard for me to get that granular. | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On June 24 2017 07:52 JimmiC wrote: I think the key with all these stats is not to overate and not ignore. For some reason it feels like most people pick a side on advanced stats and either treat them like the bible or competently ignore. I think they are a tool that can tell you some things but the eye test still matters Well, I read up on the creator's description of bpm on bkref.com. He pretty much flat out says that the metric is pretty good on offense but extremely limited (read: useless) on defense. Most NBA advanced stats are generally more useful and accurate on offense. Defense is still much more dependent on the eye test. There are trackers nowadays that can measure contests but the popular advanced stats don't really use them. The stats still overuse defensive rebounds, steals and blocks which are notorious for putting stat chasers woefully out of position to actually play defense. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On June 24 2017 12:50 andrewlt wrote: Well, I read up on the creator's description of bpm on bkref.com. He pretty much flat out says that the metric is pretty good on offense but extremely limited (read: useless) on defense. Most NBA advanced stats are generally more useful and accurate on offense. Defense is still much more dependent on the eye test. There are trackers nowadays that can measure contests but the popular advanced stats don't really use them. The stats still overuse defensive rebounds, steals and blocks which are notorious for putting stat chasers woefully out of position to actually play defense. By the way, what do we mean by eye test? | ||
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