EPTFantasy Basketball 2012/2013 - Page 26
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Doraemon
Australia14949 Posts
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
For example, out of your bigs you generally want 9-10 rpg. Even the weakest rebounding bigs (BroLo for example) still average around 7 rpg. So you have a deficit of about 3 rpg when you roster one of the worst rebounding bigs (only 30% of 10). You need to make up for that (or fall behind in rebs). 3 rpg is a very small deficit. You can make that up from literally any roster position. Even some guards (Lowry, Westbrook, Rondo) easily make up that deficit. Out of a PG, you're not really expecting more than 2.5 or 3 rpg... so when one grabs 5+, it makes up for a very weak big. On the other hand, if you look at 3pt shooting, weak guards provide a HUGE deficit. You're generally looking to get ~ 1.5 3pm per game from guards (maybe a bit higher). So if someone shoots 0.4 (like Rondo... a 73% deficit) you need to make up that 1.1 from somewhere else. That means you either need another guard that shoots 2.6+ per game (there are no PGs in the league that do that... and only a few players total) or you need a big that shoots 1+ a game (again, only a handful of players do that). That deficit is a much bigger hole to climb out of. | ||
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krndandaman
Mozambique16569 Posts
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
If I were you, I'd punt it completely. I'm generally not a fan of punting categories in ROTO (even though I basically have to punt-TOs in our league) but you don't have much of a choice. Maybe even look to trade away some of your 3pt shooters. Although I guess the only serious 3pt shooters you have left are Kyrie (whose value is at an all-time low with the injury) and Westbrook (who you probably can't afford to trade). You put yourself in a tough spot by trading both KMart and Mayo. Although I do agree you got good value for both. But now it's time to look to trade a big for a legit 3pt shooter or punt 3s. | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
On December 04 2012 13:10 DoomsVille wrote: I feel like you gave me enough of a thumping to care about 1 or 2 categories  Man I should never try to think when I make roster decisions. Sat Mo tonight for Jameer (CP3 on Mo vs. Curry on Jameer). Turns out Mo explodes for an awesome line and Jameer was trash. From now on I'm just going to not think lol Nah I am out for all the points I can get, I missed last year's playoff by like 2 points (on 2 occasions I forgot to sub one player in and it cost me). So no mercy (half-kidding)... Ya I hope Wall comes back soon. I have him in the 2 leagues now so my fantasy seasons lie on him now. | ||
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
I gave up my main shot-blocker so I am not sure if I won't suffer later. If only wall hit 3s tho I would be happier when he finally gets out there. | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
I'm in a 10 man H2H and a trade is pending between two other teams jameer Nelson + metta for Lawson is this unfair? I am offering nene and scola for Lawson my friend (with jameer and metta) thinks its an underhanded tactic to send an offer for Lawson while trade is pending? is he right? | ||
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a176
Canada6688 Posts
lawson is a bit more consistent with the assists, and nelson a bit more consistent with the threes, but otherwise generally equal out in other stats but adding metta though? thats a huge bonus the way he's playing. i'd veto that instantly just because of metta | ||
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
Good chance he regrets it later. But I don jinks it's veto able. | ||
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
On December 04 2012 15:07 Doraemon wrote: i have been offered pau for my klay straight up...my team has no other 3 point shooters except pierce and westbrook (LOL), given this is a 16 man league, having those 3 already puts me in the middle of the pack. however i have shot blockers, my centres are varejao, patterson and monroe. i'll never win blocks anyway and i win 3 pointers half the time. is it worth the trade? hmmm. rest of my team is Lin, hayward, rip and pargo/billups I wouldn't do it. It's hard to take pau given his current situation. And it sounds like you don't need him at all. With those bigs you're definitely punting blocks. Bu I wouldn't fault you if you hit accept. Pau gets traded or figures out the offence and you're dancing. Way more upside than klay. | ||
XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On December 05 2012 23:42 zeks wrote: hi guys need some advice I'm in a 10 man H2H and a trade is pending between two other teams jameer Nelson + metta for Lawson is this unfair? I am offering nene and scola for Lawson my friend (with jameer and metta) thinks its an underhanded tactic to send an offer for Lawson while trade is pending? is he right? Agree with Doomsville. Lawson is struggling but was putting up 2nd round value only a season ago and is still a vital piece of that team. The Nuggets know that they need to get him going if they want to be at their best. Nelson and Metta are playing well right now, but neither has shown the consistent high-end production that Lawson has over the past few seasons. Not to mention that Metta may take a hit once Nash comes back since he'll have the ball less and likely take fewer shots. Nene and Scola is a lowball offer for Lawson in my opinion. Nene has barely started playing and hasn't shown that he can return his pre-injury level of production yet. He also arguably doesn't have 2nd or 3rd round potential at this point, which Lawson does. Scola is coming off the bench and is fighting for PT, and his value is also capped because he's never been a good source of defensive statistics and his scoring and rebounding have dropped off over the past couple of seasons. Sending a trade offer while another trade for the same player(s) is not underhanded in itself, but it does suggest some bias or ulterior motive if that same person votes against the pending trade. However, you could possibly dispel that argument by coming up with some well-reasoned unbiased reasons to veto the trade. | ||
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
And yea, nene + Scola is definitely a low ball offer. Nene is a swift breeze away from collapsing at any time. Scola, even with unlimited play time can't put up anything beyond top 50 value. With him fighting for minutes, he's fighting for top 100. | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
Edit: agreed with the post btw. | ||
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XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On December 06 2012 04:48 DoomsVille wrote: I disagree with you on metta getting less shots. If anything Nash will find him for easier open looks. Even if his shot total goes down, his 3pt attempts probably goes up. You mainly have him for steals and 3s so a few less points wont hurt his value... Especially if it leads to a slightly higher percentage. It remains to be seen, but I think that Nash will inevitably take some shots away from MWP since he's going to have the ball in his hands all the time and is the best shooter on the team by far. MWP is getting a good number of shots right now because he's one of the few guys who can create offense for himself and they don't really have many better options along the perimeter. He'll be downgraded immediately in both roles once Nash is back. Also, MWP seems to play better on offense when he has the ball in his hands, as opposed to when he's asked to play off the ball. He's not a great spot-up shooter, and he tends to disappear on offense when he's not directly involved in the action. He likes to dribble a bit too much, power through people on drives, post up, and take pull-up 3 pointers. I suspect that all of that will go down once Nash is back, since he'll be dribbling less, the offense is moving further and further away from ISOs and post-ups (and Kobe will look to post more with Nash taking over PG duties), and he'll be doing more catch and shooting as opposed to shooting off the dribble. Who knows though. If MWP can find a way to be effective off the ball, there's a definite opportunity for him to continue his production and improve his efficiency with Nash setting him up. I haven't seen any indication that he's capable of that yet since he's joined the Lakers though, so my doubts will remain. | ||
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Kazeyonoma
United States2912 Posts
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XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On December 06 2012 05:32 Kazeyonoma wrote: MWP benefited with some of his highest 3ptm% when he was in houston and played alongside aaron brooks and kyle lowry, so if the elite pg's can get him the ball, I don't see why he won't be able to fire off on those 3s. He definitely has his confidence back outside. There's quite a difference between Nash and Brooks/Lowry, and the systems that they play under. If you look at MWP's usage rates and FGAs, you can see that he had the ball in his hands and shot the ball a lot while he was in HOU. Brooks and Lowry simply didn't dominate the ball the way Nash does, and MWP was free to dominate the ball and do all those things he loves to do on offense. MWP hasn't reached anything close to that level of usage with the Lakers, including this season, and that's prior to playing next to Nash in a D'Antoni system that has him dominating the ball. I don't think you can use that season with HOU as a reference point at all considering how different the circumstances were and how different his role is. | ||
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a176
Canada6688 Posts
On December 06 2012 03:30 XaI)CyRiC wrote: Agree with Doomsville. Lawson is struggling but was putting up 2nd round value only a season ago and is still a vital piece of that team. The Nuggets know that they need to get him going if they want to be at their best. Nelson and Metta are playing well right now, but neither has shown the consistent high-end production that Lawson has over the past few seasons. Not to mention that Metta may take a hit once Nash comes back since he'll have the ball less and likely take fewer shots. Nene and Scola is a lowball offer for Lawson in my opinion. Nene has barely started playing and hasn't shown that he can return his pre-injury level of production yet. He also arguably doesn't have 2nd or 3rd round potential at this point, which Lawson does. Scola is coming off the bench and is fighting for PT, and his value is also capped because he's never been a good source of defensive statistics and his scoring and rebounding have dropped off over the past couple of seasons. Sending a trade offer while another trade for the same player(s) is not underhanded in itself, but it does suggest some bias or ulterior motive if that same person votes against the pending trade. However, you could possibly dispel that argument by coming up with some well-reasoned unbiased reasons to veto the trade. what does any of that have to do their current fantasy value they both average around the same ppg, lawson is a bit up on apg, jameer a bit up on 3pg, which is why give-and-take their value is comparable but metta is also average 13ppg, also does pretty well on 3pg, isn't bad at all for padding ast and rebounds. and i would say you cant argue lawson is anymore consistent than metta has been. so again, one sided trade. | ||
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XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On December 06 2012 06:14 a176 wrote:what does any of that have to do their current fantasy value they both average around the same ppg, lawson is a bit up on apg, jameer a bit up on 3pg, which is why give-and-take their value is comparable but metta is also average 13ppg, also does pretty well on 3pg, isn't bad at all for padding ast and rebounds. and i would say you cant argue lawson is anymore consistent than metta has been. so again, one sided trade. There's more to a player's value than their current production. Lawson is set as the starting PG for the Nuggets, and as an essential part of the team. It's very unlikely that he'll ever struggle to get PT or scoring opportunities. As a result, he will get every opportunity to break out of his current slump and get back to providing the 2nd/3rd round production he produced last season. Is it possible he never returns to that form this season? Sure. But his potential and opportunity should definitely be considered when weighing his trade value, and his value is probably currently as low as it's ever going to be this season. Jameer, on the other hand, has never put up 2nd/3rd round production and it seems very unlikely that he will suddenly do so this season. His value (5th round) is currently being bumped up by a career high in steals (1.6 spg), which is very unlikely to last all season since he's never shown that type of production over the past 8 years, exceeding 1 spg only once in 04/05 with 1.1 spg. It's also being boosted by a career high in 94.7 FT%, which is also unlikely to last as he's averaged closer to 80% over the past two seasons. There's no reason why he would suddenly become a thief and 90% free throw shooter in his 9th season. His FG% and 3PT% are down significantly from the past few seasons, and that is actually explainable due to the fact that he is getting fewer clean looks due to not having D12 sucking in defenses. It's certainly possible that those numbers will go up since he's been better throughout his career, but he's played most of that with D12 getting him open looks and the drop in %'s began last season when D12 went out. I think most people expected his FG% and 3PT% to drop this season, and it's safe to assume he won't be returning to his career numbers with this roster. While Nelson is doing a lot for ORL right now, that team is clearly in the midst of a youth movement and tanking season. Also, unlike Lawson, he's probably playing as well as he's going to play all season right now, and he's only putting up 5th round value. Assuming his steals and FT% drop and his FG% and 3PT% go up a bit, you're still looking at 5th round value, or 4th at best. I've discussed MWP's fantasy outlook extensively already. In the end, the trade is not lopsided because you're trading two players past their peak who haven't been in the top 100 over the past few seasons (Nelson and MWP) and are currently producing 5th round level that is unlikely to improve this season and could very easily drop later on, for an up and coming Allstar PG playing on a fantasy friendly team who put up 2nd round value last season and 2nd/3rd round value whenever he's started and has only been struggling for 18 games. You've got to consider sample size, player role, team circumstances, and talent level, and not just what the players have produced over less than 20 games. Lawson's potential is easily worth gambling on for Nelson and MWP. | ||
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
 . Or play poker. What you are overlooking is consistency/upside and the fact that Lawson is the most consistent out of all three. Metta was running hot for a while, but the odds of him keeping that hot or improving upon these numbers are not very high. Jameer has been battling injuries and has only played a few games. I don't know his numbers now but it would be better to look at his stats from the last few seasons. With no Howard, and defenses being able to focus more on him if he begins to produce, Nelson's numbers are still in the air somewhat. Not to mention you are taking a chance of injury. Lawson is actually playing bad for his standards, yet his asst/stl numbers aren't really suffering. Throw in the fact that Denver is still in the process of figuring things out (McGee/Koufus/Manimal front-court makes it hard right now for him to drive down the lanes. Plus Gallinari is not making his 3s making them able to stretch the D, and with Iggy being new and a player that likes to fit in, they still haven't gotten the 3-ball going yet like Afflalo/Gallo last year) and you would be happy if Jameer Nelson gets close to Lawson's numbers by season's end. And you should be looking at the trade equation as : Lawson + waiver pickup = Metta + Jameer I would take Lawson and waiver-pickup if I had the choice. edit:hijacked by Cyric above edit2: | ||
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