|
This happened to mOOnGLaDe at IEM Cologne last time. He 2-0s the best player in the group (top Korean Terran. Last time it was Bomber, this time Dream) and then not get through based off one map.
|
How exactly is it a bad system if the one with the most map wins moves on? You make it sound like it is all unusual, but infact it is usually the way same in football (map wins=goals in this case).
|
Everyone complains about low viewer counts but the streams can't even function properly. Audio stutter here.
|
On January 19 2013 01:59 00Visor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2013 01:57 Musicus wrote:On January 19 2013 01:53 OKMarius wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 o)_Saurus wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 Xoronius wrote:On January 19 2013 01:49 Nick! wrote:
So Dream/Grubby/TLO advance? Dream/TLO/Moonglade, if my math is correct (Glade and Grubby both at +1, Glade > Grubby in H2H). total maps won counts higher as h2h afaik. So Grubby advances 3rd over moonglade. Really? If that's the case, then that rule makes no sense. 7-6 isn't better than 6-5. It is better. An extreme example would be 70-60 and 60-50, +10 gets worth more the more games were played. Totally not. You think 70-60 is more impressive than 20-10 (or 11-1)?
Yeah you are right, the last part with "+10 gets worth more the more games were played" doesn't make sense  .
But in IEM it has always been that the number of wins count if the map difference is the same and I agree that wins count more than losses, even if I can't explain why^^.
|
On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00%
This group also went mostly as expected, except for Snute underperforming by quite a bit. Among the other five, the order is okay I think. I also had TLO > Dream, but I guess it was not to be. 
|
On January 19 2013 02:03 eurTsItniH wrote:
How exactly is it a bad system if the one with the most map wins moves on? You make it sound like it is all unusual, but infact it is usually the way same in football (map wins=goals in this case).
In football it makes sense, because you stimulate the teams to play offensive because you reward more total goals.
This doesnt apply to map wins, so it doesnt make sense there.
|
Kas 1-0 Paranoid in a weird-long base trade game that Kas should have won 20 minutes ago.
|
Anyone of you guys have the VODs from LucifroN vs Parting?
|
United States97277 Posts
On January 19 2013 02:05 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% This group also went mostly as expected, except for Snute underperforming by quite a bit. I also had TLO > Dream, but I guess it was not to be.
Dream lives to defy probability. What was his win prediction % vs Rain in Code A?
|
On January 19 2013 01:52 TheSir wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2013 01:50 o)_Saurus wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 Xoronius wrote:On January 19 2013 01:49 Nick! wrote:
So Dream/Grubby/TLO advance? Dream/TLO/Moonglade, if my math is correct (Glade and Grubby both at +1, Glade > Grubby in H2H). total maps won counts higher as h2h afaik. So Grubby advances 3rd over moonglade. yes, Grubby should pay TLO's dinner tonight.
But if TLO lost then Grubby would have outright gotten 3rd in the group?
|
United States97277 Posts
On January 19 2013 02:06 checkit wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2013 01:52 TheSir wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 o)_Saurus wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 Xoronius wrote:On January 19 2013 01:49 Nick! wrote:
So Dream/Grubby/TLO advance? Dream/TLO/Moonglade, if my math is correct (Glade and Grubby both at +1, Glade > Grubby in H2H). total maps won counts higher as h2h afaik. So Grubby advances 3rd over moonglade. yes, Grubby should pay TLO's dinner tonight. But if TLO lost then Grubby would have outright gotten 3rd in the group?
Yeah Grubby was safe. It was only between TLO and mOOnGLaDe. well actually if moonglade had won a map I guess grubby would have been out
|
On January 19 2013 02:06 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2013 02:05 TheBB wrote:On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% This group also went mostly as expected, except for Snute underperforming by quite a bit. I also had TLO > Dream, but I guess it was not to be. Dream lives to defy probability. What was his win prediction % vs Rain in Code A?
I don't remember, lol. I may be a nerd but I'm not rain man.
|
Seems really stupid to pick wins over winning percentage.
|
nerchio is two leagues above diestar here
|
On January 19 2013 02:07 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2013 02:06 checkit wrote:On January 19 2013 01:52 TheSir wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 o)_Saurus wrote:On January 19 2013 01:50 Xoronius wrote:On January 19 2013 01:49 Nick! wrote:
So Dream/Grubby/TLO advance? Dream/TLO/Moonglade, if my math is correct (Glade and Grubby both at +1, Glade > Grubby in H2H). total maps won counts higher as h2h afaik. So Grubby advances 3rd over moonglade. yes, Grubby should pay TLO's dinner tonight. But if TLO lost then Grubby would have outright gotten 3rd in the group? Yeah Grubby was safe. It was only between TLO and mOOnGLaDe. well actually if moonglade had won a map I guess grubby would have been out
No. If mOOnGLaDe had taken a game off TLO, Grubby would not be advancing.
|
On January 19 2013 02:07 ssg wrote:
Seems really stupid to pick wins over winning percentage.
I agree, winrate should be more important.
|
If we only count the games between them 3, both TLO and Grubby are 3-3 on maps and Moonglade is 2-3, he would be out too with this system, some tourney did this iirc.
|
|
|
So many zealots o_o
That was a pretty sick +1 4gate with phoenixs by First.
Although, it helps when your opponent doesn't build any units ^^
|
Diestars upgrades are really bad/late ;x
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
