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On December 22 2012 21:23 Liquid`TLO wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 17:36 TheBB wrote:Well, here are my numbers, for what they are worth. Symbol is a big favourite, after him there is basically Snute, Stephano and Xlord (!). Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS.  Note: Third place match ignored. HSC BracketMost likely winners: Symbol: 52.68% Snute: 17.67% Stephano: 11.21% XlorD: 10.73% TLO: 3.27% Grubby: 3.27% MarineKing: 0.87% BratOK: 0.29% Life expectancy: Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals) Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals) XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) Detailed placement probabilities
Top 8 Top 4 Top 2 Win
Snute: 33.96% 22.67% 25.70% 17.67%
Grubby: 66.04% 24.77% 5.92% 3.27%
MarineKing: 83.38% 10.30% 5.44% 0.87%
Stephano: 16.62% 42.26% 29.91% 11.21%
XlorD: 21.98% 55.47% 11.82% 10.73%
BratOK: 78.02% 19.96% 1.72% 0.29%
TLO: 83.78% 8.25% 4.69% 3.27%
Symbol: 16.22% 16.32% 14.79% 52.68%
Most likely to be eliminated by...
Snute: Grubby (33.96%) Symbol (20.86%) Stephano (19.58%)
Grubby: Snute (66.04%) Stephano (21.54%) Symbol ( 4.57%)
MarineKing: Stephano (83.38%) Snute ( 7.88%) Symbol ( 3.96%)
Stephano: Snute (35.49%) Symbol (23.29%) MarineKing (16.62%)
XlorD: Symbol (50.37%) BratOK (21.98%) Snute ( 6.06%)
BratOK: XlorD (78.02%) Symbol (17.09%) TLO ( 2.87%)
TLO: Symbol (83.78%) XlorD ( 7.55%) Snute ( 2.50%)
Symbol: TLO (16.22%) XlorD (15.00%) Snute ( 8.40%) + Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] +Snute wins (66.04%): 3-0: 20.26% 3-1: 25.08% 3-2: 20.70% Grubby wins (33.96%): 3-0: 7.03% 3-1: 12.38% 3-2: 14.55% Most likely winner: Snute (66.04%) Median outcome: Snute 3-2 Grubby MarineKing wins (16.62%): 3-0: 2.76% 3-1: 5.78% 3-2: 8.07% Stephano wins (83.38%): 3-0: 33.96% 3-1: 30.80% 3-2: 18.62% Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%) Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano XlorD wins (78.02%): 3-0: 28.76% 3-1: 29.33% 3-2: 19.94% BratOK wins (21.98%): 3-0: 3.93% 3-1: 7.78% 3-2: 10.27% Most likely winner: XlorD (78.02%) Median outcome: XlorD 3-1 BratOK TLO wins (16.22%): 3-0: 2.68% 3-1: 5.64% 3-2: 7.90% Symbol wins (83.78%): 3-0: 34.40% 3-1: 30.89% 3-2: 18.49% Most likely winner: Symbol (83.78%) Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Symbol Fortune favours the bold. I'll make those 16,22% worth their value :D keep up the good work btw, I actually love your work cause it's like an actual meaning ladder/ranking you can climb as a progamer. I love it when you can keep track of your progress ^_^
Don't worry, Sting beat Leenock in a bo9 and only had a 3% chance iirc, gl hf!
That said keep em coming indeed BB, good stuff really. <3
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On December 22 2012 21:23 Liquid`TLO wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 17:36 TheBB wrote:Well, here are my numbers, for what they are worth. Symbol is a big favourite, after him there is basically Snute, Stephano and Xlord (!). Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS. Note: Third place match ignored. HSC BracketMost likely winners: Symbol: 52.68% Snute: 17.67% Stephano: 11.21% XlorD: 10.73% TLO: 3.27% Grubby: 3.27% MarineKing: 0.87% BratOK: 0.29% Life expectancy: Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals) Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals) XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) Detailed placement probabilities
Top 8 Top 4 Top 2 Win
Snute: 33.96% 22.67% 25.70% 17.67%
Grubby: 66.04% 24.77% 5.92% 3.27%
MarineKing: 83.38% 10.30% 5.44% 0.87%
Stephano: 16.62% 42.26% 29.91% 11.21%
XlorD: 21.98% 55.47% 11.82% 10.73%
BratOK: 78.02% 19.96% 1.72% 0.29%
TLO: 83.78% 8.25% 4.69% 3.27%
Symbol: 16.22% 16.32% 14.79% 52.68%
Most likely to be eliminated by...
Snute: Grubby (33.96%) Symbol (20.86%) Stephano (19.58%)
Grubby: Snute (66.04%) Stephano (21.54%) Symbol ( 4.57%)
MarineKing: Stephano (83.38%) Snute ( 7.88%) Symbol ( 3.96%)
Stephano: Snute (35.49%) Symbol (23.29%) MarineKing (16.62%)
XlorD: Symbol (50.37%) BratOK (21.98%) Snute ( 6.06%)
BratOK: XlorD (78.02%) Symbol (17.09%) TLO ( 2.87%)
TLO: Symbol (83.78%) XlorD ( 7.55%) Snute ( 2.50%)
Symbol: TLO (16.22%) XlorD (15.00%) Snute ( 8.40%) + Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] +Snute wins (66.04%): 3-0: 20.26% 3-1: 25.08% 3-2: 20.70% Grubby wins (33.96%): 3-0: 7.03% 3-1: 12.38% 3-2: 14.55% Most likely winner: Snute (66.04%) Median outcome: Snute 3-2 Grubby MarineKing wins (16.62%): 3-0: 2.76% 3-1: 5.78% 3-2: 8.07% Stephano wins (83.38%): 3-0: 33.96% 3-1: 30.80% 3-2: 18.62% Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%) Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano XlorD wins (78.02%): 3-0: 28.76% 3-1: 29.33% 3-2: 19.94% BratOK wins (21.98%): 3-0: 3.93% 3-1: 7.78% 3-2: 10.27% Most likely winner: XlorD (78.02%) Median outcome: XlorD 3-1 BratOK TLO wins (16.22%): 3-0: 2.68% 3-1: 5.64% 3-2: 7.90% Symbol wins (83.78%): 3-0: 34.40% 3-1: 30.89% 3-2: 18.49% Most likely winner: Symbol (83.78%) Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Symbol Fortune favours the bold. I'll make those 16,22% worth their value :D keep up the good work btw, I actually love your work cause it's like an actual meaning ladder/ranking you can climb as a progamer. I love it when you can keep track of your progress ^_^
so much agreeing with this.
I can only imagine how much work it is to do this, and i fucking love rankings :D
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This music so desperately reminds me of Stromberg...
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Grubby Protoss represent! Win it all
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Two things i'm hoping for:
1. Zerg winner (preferably Stephano)
2. No problems with the streams
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i can confirm that mkp is indeed warmed up : - (
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On December 22 2012 21:23 Liquid`TLO wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 17:36 TheBB wrote:Well, here are my numbers, for what they are worth. Symbol is a big favourite, after him there is basically Snute, Stephano and Xlord (!). Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS. Note: Third place match ignored. HSC BracketMost likely winners: Symbol: 52.68% Snute: 17.67% Stephano: 11.21% XlorD: 10.73% TLO: 3.27% Grubby: 3.27% MarineKing: 0.87% BratOK: 0.29% Life expectancy: Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals) Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals) XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) Detailed placement probabilities
Top 8 Top 4 Top 2 Win
Snute: 33.96% 22.67% 25.70% 17.67%
Grubby: 66.04% 24.77% 5.92% 3.27%
MarineKing: 83.38% 10.30% 5.44% 0.87%
Stephano: 16.62% 42.26% 29.91% 11.21%
XlorD: 21.98% 55.47% 11.82% 10.73%
BratOK: 78.02% 19.96% 1.72% 0.29%
TLO: 83.78% 8.25% 4.69% 3.27%
Symbol: 16.22% 16.32% 14.79% 52.68%
Most likely to be eliminated by...
Snute: Grubby (33.96%) Symbol (20.86%) Stephano (19.58%)
Grubby: Snute (66.04%) Stephano (21.54%) Symbol ( 4.57%)
MarineKing: Stephano (83.38%) Snute ( 7.88%) Symbol ( 3.96%)
Stephano: Snute (35.49%) Symbol (23.29%) MarineKing (16.62%)
XlorD: Symbol (50.37%) BratOK (21.98%) Snute ( 6.06%)
BratOK: XlorD (78.02%) Symbol (17.09%) TLO ( 2.87%)
TLO: Symbol (83.78%) XlorD ( 7.55%) Snute ( 2.50%)
Symbol: TLO (16.22%) XlorD (15.00%) Snute ( 8.40%) + Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] +Snute wins (66.04%): 3-0: 20.26% 3-1: 25.08% 3-2: 20.70% Grubby wins (33.96%): 3-0: 7.03% 3-1: 12.38% 3-2: 14.55% Most likely winner: Snute (66.04%) Median outcome: Snute 3-2 Grubby MarineKing wins (16.62%): 3-0: 2.76% 3-1: 5.78% 3-2: 8.07% Stephano wins (83.38%): 3-0: 33.96% 3-1: 30.80% 3-2: 18.62% Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%) Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano XlorD wins (78.02%): 3-0: 28.76% 3-1: 29.33% 3-2: 19.94% BratOK wins (21.98%): 3-0: 3.93% 3-1: 7.78% 3-2: 10.27% Most likely winner: XlorD (78.02%) Median outcome: XlorD 3-1 BratOK TLO wins (16.22%): 3-0: 2.68% 3-1: 5.64% 3-2: 7.90% Symbol wins (83.78%): 3-0: 34.40% 3-1: 30.89% 3-2: 18.49% Most likely winner: Symbol (83.78%) Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Symbol Fortune favours the bold. I'll make those 16,22% worth their value :D keep up the good work btw, I actually love your work cause it's like an actual meaning ladder/ranking you can climb as a progamer. I love it when you can keep track of your progress ^_^
Good luck today!
And yeah, TheBB you're doing great work. I don't get the people who hate on you, compared to the shit the LR threads gets spammed with this is pure gold!
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On December 22 2012 22:38 n0ise wrote:
i can confirm that mkp is indeed warmed up : - (
how do you know? haha
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On December 22 2012 22:36 Psyclon wrote:
Two things i'm hoping for:
1. Not a Zerg winner
2. No problems with the streams
fixed (for me).
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On December 22 2012 22:39 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 22:38 n0ise wrote:
i can confirm that mkp is indeed warmed up : - ( how do you know? haha
got ladder'd tt
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Fist game will be MKP vs. Stephano! It's going to be casted by Ret, DIMAGA and Tarson! Have fun guys!
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On December 22 2012 22:42 TaKeTV wrote:
Fist game will be MKP vs. Stephano! It's going to be casted by Ret, DIMAGA and Tarson! Have fun guys!
What did Grubby have to do to convince you to not play first? :D
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Good stuff incoming, the upper half of the bracket looks great. 
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
hot damn, GOGOGO MARINEKINGGGGGG
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On December 22 2012 22:44 AlternativeEgo wrote:Good stuff incoming, the upper half of the bracket looks great.
Only the upper half? :O :O :O
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On December 22 2012 22:44 n0ise wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 22:42 TaKeTV wrote:
Fist game will be MKP vs. Stephano! It's going to be casted by Ret, DIMAGA and Tarson! Have fun guys! What did Grubby have to do to convince you to not play first? :D
Haha, I thought exactly the same thing.
I would like for Grubby to win but I think Snute might get te better of him and then win the whole thing zvzvz =(
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Hope for MKP to win it and a TvT Final. And wooo Grubby can sleep a lil longer !
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/LE1Ih.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/WeWfk.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Y9Ese.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lMqBf.png)
