On December 22 2012 21:23 Liquid`TLO wrote:
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Fortune favours the bold. I'll make those 16,22% worth their value :D
keep up the good work btw, I actually love your work cause it's like an actual meaning ladder/ranking you can climb as a progamer. I love it when you can keep track of your progress ^_^
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On December 22 2012 17:36 TheBB wrote:
Well, here are my numbers, for what they are worth. Symbol is a big favourite, after him there is basically Snute, Stephano and Xlord (!).
Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS.
Note: Third place match ignored.
HSC Bracket
Most likely winners:
Symbol: 52.68%
Snute: 17.67%
Stephano: 11.21%
XlorD: 10.73%
TLO: 3.27%
Grubby: 3.27%
MarineKing: 0.87%
BratOK: 0.29%
Life expectancy:
Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals)
Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
+ Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] +
+ Show Spoiler [MarineKing vs. Stephano] +
+ Show Spoiler [XlorD vs. BratOK] +
+ Show Spoiler [TLO vs. Symbol] +
details, data source, code
Well, here are my numbers, for what they are worth. Symbol is a big favourite, after him there is basically Snute, Stephano and Xlord (!).
Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS.
Note: Third place match ignored.
HSC Bracket
Most likely winners:
Symbol: 52.68%
Snute: 17.67%
Stephano: 11.21%
XlorD: 10.73%
TLO: 3.27%
Grubby: 3.27%
MarineKing: 0.87%
BratOK: 0.29%
Life expectancy:
Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals)
Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
Detailed placement probabilities
Top 8 Top 4 Top 2 Win
Snute: 33.96% 22.67% 25.70% 17.67%
Grubby: 66.04% 24.77% 5.92% 3.27%
MarineKing: 83.38% 10.30% 5.44% 0.87%
Stephano: 16.62% 42.26% 29.91% 11.21%
XlorD: 21.98% 55.47% 11.82% 10.73%
BratOK: 78.02% 19.96% 1.72% 0.29%
TLO: 83.78% 8.25% 4.69% 3.27%
Symbol: 16.22% 16.32% 14.79% 52.68%
Most likely to be eliminated by...
Snute: Grubby (33.96%) Symbol (20.86%) Stephano (19.58%)
Grubby: Snute (66.04%) Stephano (21.54%) Symbol ( 4.57%)
MarineKing: Stephano (83.38%) Snute ( 7.88%) Symbol ( 3.96%)
Stephano: Snute (35.49%) Symbol (23.29%) MarineKing (16.62%)
XlorD: Symbol (50.37%) BratOK (21.98%) Snute ( 6.06%)
BratOK: XlorD (78.02%) Symbol (17.09%) TLO ( 2.87%)
TLO: Symbol (83.78%) XlorD ( 7.55%) Snute ( 2.50%)
Symbol: TLO (16.22%) XlorD (15.00%) Snute ( 8.40%)
+ Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] +
Snute wins (66.04%):
3-0: 20.26%
3-1: 25.08%
3-2: 20.70%
Grubby wins (33.96%):
3-0: 7.03%
3-1: 12.38%
3-2: 14.55%
Most likely winner: Snute (66.04%)
Median outcome: Snute 3-2 Grubby
3-0: 20.26%
3-1: 25.08%
3-2: 20.70%
Grubby wins (33.96%):
3-0: 7.03%
3-1: 12.38%
3-2: 14.55%
Most likely winner: Snute (66.04%)
Median outcome: Snute 3-2 Grubby
+ Show Spoiler [MarineKing vs. Stephano] +
MarineKing wins (16.62%):
3-0: 2.76%
3-1: 5.78%
3-2: 8.07%
Stephano wins (83.38%):
3-0: 33.96%
3-1: 30.80%
3-2: 18.62%
Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%)
Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano
3-0: 2.76%
3-1: 5.78%
3-2: 8.07%
Stephano wins (83.38%):
3-0: 33.96%
3-1: 30.80%
3-2: 18.62%
Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%)
Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano
+ Show Spoiler [XlorD vs. BratOK] +
XlorD wins (78.02%):
3-0: 28.76%
3-1: 29.33%
3-2: 19.94%
BratOK wins (21.98%):
3-0: 3.93%
3-1: 7.78%
3-2: 10.27%
Most likely winner: XlorD (78.02%)
Median outcome: XlorD 3-1 BratOK
3-0: 28.76%
3-1: 29.33%
3-2: 19.94%
BratOK wins (21.98%):
3-0: 3.93%
3-1: 7.78%
3-2: 10.27%
Most likely winner: XlorD (78.02%)
Median outcome: XlorD 3-1 BratOK
+ Show Spoiler [TLO vs. Symbol] +
TLO wins (16.22%):
3-0: 2.68%
3-1: 5.64%
3-2: 7.90%
Symbol wins (83.78%):
3-0: 34.40%
3-1: 30.89%
3-2: 18.49%
Most likely winner: Symbol (83.78%)
Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Symbol
3-0: 2.68%
3-1: 5.64%
3-2: 7.90%
Symbol wins (83.78%):
3-0: 34.40%
3-1: 30.89%
3-2: 18.49%
Most likely winner: Symbol (83.78%)
Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Symbol
details, data source, code
Fortune favours the bold. I'll make those 16,22% worth their value :D
keep up the good work btw, I actually love your work cause it's like an actual meaning ladder/ranking you can climb as a progamer. I love it when you can keep track of your progress ^_^
Don't worry, Sting beat Leenock in a bo9 and only had a 3% chance iirc, gl hf!
That said keep em coming indeed BB, good stuff really. <3