EPT[Day 4] HomeStory Cup VI - Page 3
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Champloo
Germany1850 Posts
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opterown
Australia54785 Posts
On December 22 2012 12:01 aleksano wrote: http://gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings/ I think he deserves to be among the favourites! that's a pretty bad rating system tbh, it values 3-2 the same as 3-0 | ||
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Venax
119 Posts
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K3Nyy
United States1961 Posts
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
Yeah, take them with a grain of salt as usual, but I did get all advancees right yesterday, as well as 7 and 6/8 from days 2 and 1 respectively. So I guess it's not total BS.  Note: Third place match ignored. HSC Bracket Most likely winners: Symbol: 52.68% Snute: 17.67% Stephano: 11.21% XlorD: 10.73% TLO: 3.27% Grubby: 3.27% MarineKing: 0.87% BratOK: 0.29% Life expectancy: Symbol: 2.04 rounds (lose in the finals) Stephano: 1.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Snute: 1.27 rounds (lose in the semifinals) XlorD: 1.11 rounds (lose in the semifinals) Grubby: 0.46 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) TLO: 0.27 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) BratOK: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) MarineKing: 0.24 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals) Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Snute vs. Grubby] + Snute wins (66.04%): 3-0: 20.26% 3-1: 25.08% 3-2: 20.70% Grubby wins (33.96%): 3-0: 7.03% 3-1: 12.38% 3-2: 14.55% Most likely winner: Snute (66.04%) Median outcome: Snute 3-2 Grubby ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/LE1Ih.png) + Show Spoiler [MarineKing vs. Stephano] + MarineKing wins (16.62%): 3-0: 2.76% 3-1: 5.78% 3-2: 8.07% Stephano wins (83.38%): 3-0: 33.96% 3-1: 30.80% 3-2: 18.62% Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%) Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/WeWfk.png) + Show Spoiler [XlorD vs. BratOK] + XlorD wins (78.02%): 3-0: 28.76% 3-1: 29.33% 3-2: 19.94% BratOK wins (21.98%): 3-0: 3.93% 3-1: 7.78% 3-2: 10.27% Most likely winner: XlorD (78.02%) Median outcome: XlorD 3-1 BratOK ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Y9Ese.png) + Show Spoiler [TLO vs. Symbol] + TLO wins (16.22%): 3-0: 2.68% 3-1: 5.64% 3-2: 7.90% Symbol wins (83.78%): 3-0: 34.40% 3-1: 30.89% 3-2: 18.49% Most likely winner: Symbol (83.78%) Median outcome: TLO 1-3 Symbol ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lMqBf.png) details, data source, code | ||
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Psyclon
Bulgaria2443 Posts
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Schelim
Austria11528 Posts
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Derrida
2885 Posts
This is like a dream tournament. | ||
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opterown
Australia54785 Posts
On December 22 2012 17:36 TheBB wrote: I think your predictions were a bit more on target with sc2charts haha | ||
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rafaliusz
Poland482 Posts
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brill
Ghana12 Posts
MarineKing wins (16.62%): 3-0: 2.76% 3-1: 5.78% 3-2: 8.07% Stephano wins (83.38%): 3-0: 33.96% 3-1: 30.80% 3-2: 18.62% Most likely winner: Stephano (83.38%) Median outcome: MarineKing 1-3 Stephano marineking elo: 2311 vsz: 2215 stephano elo: 2298 vst: 2267 how is it 83% that stephano wins then? their elos are pretty close. | ||
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Rollora
2450 Posts
On December 22 2012 10:45 X3GoldDot wrote: marinekingprime is gonna rock the hell out of this tourny, i have feeling that he will beat stephano without dropping a game and then win the whole thing easily are we talking 2x proxy rax or are we talking macro game here? | ||
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goswser
United States3548 Posts
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On December 22 2012 18:51 brill wrote: marineking elo: 2311 vsz: 2215 stephano elo: 2298 vst: 2267 how is it 83% that stephano wins then? their elos are pretty close. I don't use Elo. Stephano: http://aligulac.com/players/10/ MarineKing: http://aligulac.com/players/14/ | ||
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furo
Germany449 Posts
i so want to say grubby but he prolly has to face zerg all the way and i kinda doubt he has that many tricks in his sleaves so i go with MKP what will prolly be zvz final and unless Tarson casts im out | ||
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brill
Ghana12 Posts
On December 22 2012 18:59 TheBB wrote: I don't use Elo. Stephano: http://aligulac.com/players/10/ MarineKing: http://aligulac.com/players/14/ a quick survey showed me that MKP has roughly 50% percent winrate in tvz in the past 3 months, note that the losses are from much scarier zvt players than stephano, such as life, leenock, hyun, sniper Stephano has about the same winrate, slightly better, but vs worse quality tvz opponents in average (there are good players but overall worse opponents in average which is logical since he mainly enters foreign tournaments, fewer koreans there) so while obviously you put a lof of work into that webpage, the predictions often seem way off | ||
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RiZu
Singapore5715 Posts
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TBO
Germany1350 Posts
On December 22 2012 19:10 brill wrote: a quick survey showed me that MKP has roughly 50% percent winrate in tvz in the past 3 months, note that the losses are from much scarier zvt players than stephano, such as life, leenock, hyun, sniper Stephano has about the same winrate, slightly better, but vs worse quality tvz opponents in average (there are good players but overall worse opponents in average which is logical since he mainly enters foreign tournaments, fewer koreans there) so while obviously you put a lof of work into that webpage, the predictions often seem way off while they seem to be kinda strange often, his prediction turn out to be right scaringly often. Predicting all players who advance in 2nd group stage correctly (with MC and MMA getting eliminated!) is quite impressive | ||
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brill
Ghana12 Posts
On December 22 2012 19:15 TBO wrote: while they seem to be kinda strange often, his prediction turn out to be right scaringly often. Predicting all players who advance in 2nd group stage correctly (with MC and MMA getting eliminated!) is quite impressive yeah I saw the predictions and they are right and seem rational a lot of times. but there are examples where they are way off. I remember a prediction which gave Polt a very bad chance while his race specific elo was better than his opponents and he proceeded to rape the guy. don't remember the specifics though. | ||
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Rollora
2450 Posts
On December 22 2012 17:57 Psyclon wrote: 5 more hours...i have no idea what i'm going to do until then drinking coffee dumping something having a couple of nice saturday hours with GF eating watching HSC with friends while getting drunk Concluding the great day by going out and getting even more drunk coming home, explaining GF why I am that drunk (must have been something wrong with that beer) sleeping | ||
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