• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 19:26
CET 01:26
KST 09:26
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Revival - 2025 Season Finals Preview8RSL Season 3 - Playoffs Preview0RSL Season 3 - RO16 Groups C & D Preview0RSL Season 3 - RO16 Groups A & B Preview2TL.net Map Contest #21: Winners12
Community News
$21,000 Rongyi Cup Season 3 announced (Jan 22-Feb 7)5Weekly Cups (Dec 29-Jan 4): Protoss rolls, 2v2 returns6[BSL21] Non-Korean Championship - Starts Jan 103SC2 All-Star Invitational: Jan 17-1822Weekly Cups (Dec 22-28): Classic & MaxPax win, Percival surprises3
StarCraft 2
General
Weekly Cups (Dec 29-Jan 4): Protoss rolls, 2v2 returns SC2 All-Star Invitational: Jan 17-18 Weekly Cups (Dec 22-28): Classic & MaxPax win, Percival surprises Chinese SC2 server to reopen; live all-star event in Hangzhou Starcraft 2 Zerg Coach
Tourneys
$21,000 Rongyi Cup Season 3 announced (Jan 22-Feb 7) WardiTV Winter Cup WardiTV Mondays SC2 AI Tournament 2026 OSC Season 13 World Championship
Strategy
Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ?
External Content
Mutation # 507 Well Trained Mutation # 506 Warp Zone Mutation # 505 Rise From Ashes Mutation # 504 Retribution
Brood War
General
BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ I would like to say something about StarCraft BW General Discussion StarCraft & BroodWar Campaign Speedrun Quest Data analysis on 70 million replays
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [BSL21] Grand Finals - Sunday 21:00 CET [BSL21] Non-Korean Championship - Starts Jan 10 SLON Grand Finals – Season 2
Strategy
Game Theory for Starcraft Simple Questions, Simple Answers Current Meta [G] How to get started on ladder as a new Z player
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Awesome Games Done Quick 2026! General RTS Discussion Thread Nintendo Switch Thread Should offensive tower rushing be viable in RTS games?
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Trading/Investing Thread The Big Programming Thread
Fan Clubs
White-Ra Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List TL+ Announced
Blogs
Life Update and thoughts.
FuDDx
How do archons sleep?
8882
Psychological Factors That D…
TrAiDoS
James Bond movies ranking - pa…
Topin
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1584 users

[DreamHack] Winter Day 1 - Page 11

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
Post a Reply
Prev 1 9 10 11 12 13 152 Next
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
November 22 2012 12:17 GMT
#201
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
Fueled
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1610 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#202
On November 22 2012 21:17 Schelim wrote:
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.

I'd have to agree with that
The Wood League - Where a double gas opening can still mean a Marine/SCV all-in
shabby
Profile Joined March 2010
Norway6402 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#203
On November 22 2012 21:17 Schelim wrote:
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.


I almost agree. If group 1 gets a good BYOC and Ret is in bad shape again I'd say group 1 is harder.
Jaedong, Gumibear, Leenock, Byun
ELA
Profile Joined April 2010
Denmark4608 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#204
On November 22 2012 21:14 TheBB wrote:
By the way, here are my numbers from before.

Show nested quote +
On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:
Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +
Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TaeJa: 4.18% 11.72% 18.75% 27.66% 37.69%
Stephano: 4.94% 13.49% 20.34% 28.10% 33.12%
Fraer: 14.52% 26.23% 25.48% 19.95% 13.82%
TheStC: 14.46% 26.45% 25.37% 19.88% 13.83%
SjoW: 61.89% 22.11% 10.06% 4.41% 1.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
TaeJa: 0.94% 9.24% 30.60% 40.65% 18.57%
Stephano: 1.20% 11.23% 32.93% 38.78% 15.86%
Fraer: 5.49% 26.61% 40.08% 23.22% 4.60%
TheStC: 5.28% 27.15% 39.75% 23.21% 4.61%
SjoW: 37.12% 42.24% 17.37% 3.11% 0.16%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TaeJa: 0.05% 0.21% 0.33% 0.65% 1.83% 3.40% 4.04% 6.54% 11.04% 10.93% 10.49% 14.88% 13.47% 7.53% 6.76% 5.86% 1.99%
Stephano: 0.05% 0.26% 0.42% 0.75% 2.41% 4.08% 4.66% 7.45% 12.25% 11.55% 10.29% 14.45% 12.40% 6.73% 5.92% 4.83% 1.51%
Fraer: 0.37% 1.32% 2.21% 2.98% 6.93% 10.19% 9.11% 11.41% 15.49% 11.25% 8.32% 8.59% 6.02% 2.59% 1.75% 1.15% 0.31%
TheStC: 0.30% 1.37% 1.94% 3.13% 7.17% 10.15% 9.20% 11.78% 14.92% 11.32% 8.19% 8.70% 6.11% 2.53% 1.73% 1.20% 0.26%
SjoW: 5.48% 13.71% 12.35% 10.92% 15.98% 14.16% 8.29% 6.85% 6.06% 2.94% 1.43% 1.10% 0.50% 0.15% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +
Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Mana: 6.88% 13.71% 19.80% 26.58% 33.03%
Bly: 7.04% 13.86% 20.22% 26.33% 32.56%
SaSe: 13.26% 20.39% 23.66% 22.76% 19.94%
StarNaN: 50.31% 24.84% 13.85% 7.50% 3.49%
Socke: 22.51% 27.20% 22.47% 16.83% 10.98%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Mana: 1.72% 12.59% 33.45% 37.65% 14.58%
Bly: 1.80% 12.81% 33.93% 37.42% 14.04%
SaSe: 4.26% 21.54% 38.74% 28.23% 7.23%
StarNaN: 26.08% 42.42% 24.69% 6.25% 0.57%
Socke: 8.87% 31.88% 38.10% 18.00% 3.15%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mana: 0.07% 0.34% 0.65% 1.08% 2.61% 4.71% 5.10% 7.80% 12.59% 11.52% 10.60% 13.85% 11.70% 6.17% 5.37% 4.50% 1.34%
Bly: 0.10% 0.36% 0.66% 1.07% 2.78% 4.81% 5.12% 8.08% 12.49% 11.71% 10.50% 13.81% 11.72% 6.24% 5.15% 4.17% 1.22%
SaSe: 0.23% 1.07% 1.63% 2.26% 5.56% 8.12% 7.72% 10.65% 14.69% 11.54% 9.44% 10.21% 8.05% 3.75% 2.77% 1.88% 0.42%
StarNaN: 3.11% 8.80% 9.13% 9.21% 14.81% 15.13% 9.81% 9.26% 8.79% 5.00% 2.78% 2.19% 1.20% 0.43% 0.21% 0.11% 0.02%
Socke: 0.62% 2.43% 3.34% 4.31% 9.11% 12.19% 9.95% 11.94% 14.28% 9.95% 6.99% 6.75% 4.28% 1.75% 1.15% 0.79% 0.17%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +
Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Nerchio: 4.89% 9.26% 14.52% 23.71% 47.61%
DIMAGA: 27.51% 23.15% 20.71% 17.62% 11.00%
TargA: 22.59% 22.68% 21.87% 19.47% 13.38%
TheLittleOne: 26.07% 23.80% 21.05% 17.50% 11.58%
monchi: 18.94% 21.10% 21.84% 21.69% 16.44%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Nerchio: 0.90% 8.18% 27.11% 40.78% 23.03%
DIMAGA: 10.54% 32.42% 36.26% 17.71% 3.07%
TargA: 7.93% 29.59% 37.75% 20.77% 3.95%
TheLittleOne: 10.00% 31.86% 36.72% 18.12% 3.30%
monchi: 6.39% 25.80% 37.97% 24.40% 5.44%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nerchio: 0.03% 0.18% 0.32% 0.55% 1.52% 3.08% 3.55% 5.73% 9.75% 9.99% 10.17% 14.60% 13.79% 8.50% 8.12% 7.44% 2.68%
DIMAGA: 0.77% 3.03% 3.87% 4.89% 9.51% 12.21% 9.99% 11.41% 13.44% 9.48% 6.89% 6.52% 4.36% 1.68% 1.10% 0.70% 0.14%
TargA: 0.58% 2.10% 2.99% 3.87% 8.37% 11.18% 9.38% 11.60% 14.00% 10.46% 7.64% 7.82% 5.20% 2.19% 1.46% 0.92% 0.26%
TheLittleOne: 0.78% 2.79% 3.68% 4.76% 9.13% 12.01% 9.87% 11.85% 13.76% 9.45% 6.86% 6.82% 4.22% 1.85% 1.23% 0.78% 0.16%
monchi: 0.44% 1.57% 2.44% 3.34% 6.86% 9.57% 8.85% 11.41% 14.30% 10.76% 8.49% 9.09% 6.34% 2.82% 2.01% 1.40% 0.32%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +
Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
ThorZaIN: 29.27% 27.91% 21.43% 13.99% 7.40%
fOrGG: 6.21% 12.08% 19.78% 28.44% 33.49%
ret: 42.08% 26.77% 17.05% 9.50% 4.59%
HerO: 4.61% 9.94% 16.93% 27.54% 40.98%
Naniwa: 17.82% 23.29% 24.82% 20.53% 13.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
ThorZaIN: 13.00% 36.55% 34.98% 13.61% 1.86%
fOrGG: 1.36% 11.68% 33.05% 38.53% 15.39%
ret: 20.90% 40.98% 28.73% 8.47% 0.92%
HerO: 0.94% 8.65% 28.73% 41.37% 20.30%
Naniwa: 6.46% 27.35% 39.12% 22.53% 4.54%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ThorZaIN: 1.14% 3.93% 4.77% 5.85% 11.14% 13.43% 10.57% 11.75% 12.95% 8.66% 5.42% 5.08% 3.02% 1.15% 0.67% 0.39% 0.08%
fOrGG: 0.06% 0.26% 0.51% 0.87% 2.46% 4.35% 4.77% 7.45% 12.45% 11.21% 10.66% 14.24% 12.32% 6.56% 5.57% 4.76% 1.49%
ret: 2.29% 6.82% 7.36% 8.06% 13.77% 15.01% 10.17% 10.57% 10.35% 6.01% 3.68% 3.14% 1.64% 0.56% 0.37% 0.17% 0.03%
HerO: 0.02% 0.16% 0.39% 0.61% 1.73% 3.19% 3.69% 6.16% 10.48% 10.34% 10.50% 15.11% 13.77% 7.87% 7.35% 6.48% 2.16%
Naniwa: 0.45% 1.64% 2.40% 3.51% 7.48% 10.25% 9.16% 11.63% 14.61% 10.96% 8.02% 8.76% 5.62% 2.41% 1.68% 1.11% 0.30%



Hahaha - Wow!
The first link of chain forged, the first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably.
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#205
StarNaN vs. Bly

StarNaN wins (23.61%):
      2-0: 9.97%
      2-1: 13.64%

Bly wins (76.39%):
      2-0: 46.83%
      2-1: 29.57%

Most likely winner: Bly (76.39%)
Most likely outcome: StarNaN 0-2 Bly (46.83%)

[image loading]

details, data source, code
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#206
Elfi doing his storm rush build again that he showed at the GD ASUS Invitational.
Fueled
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1610 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#207
I think StC has this. Going to be tough, but I think he'll pull through.
The Wood League - Where a double gas opening can still mean a Marine/SCV all-in
TheSir
Profile Joined February 2012
1830 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#208
New background for the casters looks good, way better then previous one
Musicus
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany23576 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#209
On November 22 2012 21:17 Schelim wrote:
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.


I also agree with you.
Maru and Serral are probably top 5.
Masq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada1792 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#210
Is the audio messed up or something? I keep hearing a strange echo
Zzoram
Profile Joined February 2008
Canada7115 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#211
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats?
AlternativeEgo
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden17309 Posts
November 22 2012 12:20 GMT
#212
On November 22 2012 21:18 ELA wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2012 21:14 TheBB wrote:
By the way, here are my numbers from before.

On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:
Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +
Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TaeJa: 4.18% 11.72% 18.75% 27.66% 37.69%
Stephano: 4.94% 13.49% 20.34% 28.10% 33.12%
Fraer: 14.52% 26.23% 25.48% 19.95% 13.82%
TheStC: 14.46% 26.45% 25.37% 19.88% 13.83%
SjoW: 61.89% 22.11% 10.06% 4.41% 1.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
TaeJa: 0.94% 9.24% 30.60% 40.65% 18.57%
Stephano: 1.20% 11.23% 32.93% 38.78% 15.86%
Fraer: 5.49% 26.61% 40.08% 23.22% 4.60%
TheStC: 5.28% 27.15% 39.75% 23.21% 4.61%
SjoW: 37.12% 42.24% 17.37% 3.11% 0.16%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TaeJa: 0.05% 0.21% 0.33% 0.65% 1.83% 3.40% 4.04% 6.54% 11.04% 10.93% 10.49% 14.88% 13.47% 7.53% 6.76% 5.86% 1.99%
Stephano: 0.05% 0.26% 0.42% 0.75% 2.41% 4.08% 4.66% 7.45% 12.25% 11.55% 10.29% 14.45% 12.40% 6.73% 5.92% 4.83% 1.51%
Fraer: 0.37% 1.32% 2.21% 2.98% 6.93% 10.19% 9.11% 11.41% 15.49% 11.25% 8.32% 8.59% 6.02% 2.59% 1.75% 1.15% 0.31%
TheStC: 0.30% 1.37% 1.94% 3.13% 7.17% 10.15% 9.20% 11.78% 14.92% 11.32% 8.19% 8.70% 6.11% 2.53% 1.73% 1.20% 0.26%
SjoW: 5.48% 13.71% 12.35% 10.92% 15.98% 14.16% 8.29% 6.85% 6.06% 2.94% 1.43% 1.10% 0.50% 0.15% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +
Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Mana: 6.88% 13.71% 19.80% 26.58% 33.03%
Bly: 7.04% 13.86% 20.22% 26.33% 32.56%
SaSe: 13.26% 20.39% 23.66% 22.76% 19.94%
StarNaN: 50.31% 24.84% 13.85% 7.50% 3.49%
Socke: 22.51% 27.20% 22.47% 16.83% 10.98%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Mana: 1.72% 12.59% 33.45% 37.65% 14.58%
Bly: 1.80% 12.81% 33.93% 37.42% 14.04%
SaSe: 4.26% 21.54% 38.74% 28.23% 7.23%
StarNaN: 26.08% 42.42% 24.69% 6.25% 0.57%
Socke: 8.87% 31.88% 38.10% 18.00% 3.15%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mana: 0.07% 0.34% 0.65% 1.08% 2.61% 4.71% 5.10% 7.80% 12.59% 11.52% 10.60% 13.85% 11.70% 6.17% 5.37% 4.50% 1.34%
Bly: 0.10% 0.36% 0.66% 1.07% 2.78% 4.81% 5.12% 8.08% 12.49% 11.71% 10.50% 13.81% 11.72% 6.24% 5.15% 4.17% 1.22%
SaSe: 0.23% 1.07% 1.63% 2.26% 5.56% 8.12% 7.72% 10.65% 14.69% 11.54% 9.44% 10.21% 8.05% 3.75% 2.77% 1.88% 0.42%
StarNaN: 3.11% 8.80% 9.13% 9.21% 14.81% 15.13% 9.81% 9.26% 8.79% 5.00% 2.78% 2.19% 1.20% 0.43% 0.21% 0.11% 0.02%
Socke: 0.62% 2.43% 3.34% 4.31% 9.11% 12.19% 9.95% 11.94% 14.28% 9.95% 6.99% 6.75% 4.28% 1.75% 1.15% 0.79% 0.17%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +
Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Nerchio: 4.89% 9.26% 14.52% 23.71% 47.61%
DIMAGA: 27.51% 23.15% 20.71% 17.62% 11.00%
TargA: 22.59% 22.68% 21.87% 19.47% 13.38%
TheLittleOne: 26.07% 23.80% 21.05% 17.50% 11.58%
monchi: 18.94% 21.10% 21.84% 21.69% 16.44%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Nerchio: 0.90% 8.18% 27.11% 40.78% 23.03%
DIMAGA: 10.54% 32.42% 36.26% 17.71% 3.07%
TargA: 7.93% 29.59% 37.75% 20.77% 3.95%
TheLittleOne: 10.00% 31.86% 36.72% 18.12% 3.30%
monchi: 6.39% 25.80% 37.97% 24.40% 5.44%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nerchio: 0.03% 0.18% 0.32% 0.55% 1.52% 3.08% 3.55% 5.73% 9.75% 9.99% 10.17% 14.60% 13.79% 8.50% 8.12% 7.44% 2.68%
DIMAGA: 0.77% 3.03% 3.87% 4.89% 9.51% 12.21% 9.99% 11.41% 13.44% 9.48% 6.89% 6.52% 4.36% 1.68% 1.10% 0.70% 0.14%
TargA: 0.58% 2.10% 2.99% 3.87% 8.37% 11.18% 9.38% 11.60% 14.00% 10.46% 7.64% 7.82% 5.20% 2.19% 1.46% 0.92% 0.26%
TheLittleOne: 0.78% 2.79% 3.68% 4.76% 9.13% 12.01% 9.87% 11.85% 13.76% 9.45% 6.86% 6.82% 4.22% 1.85% 1.23% 0.78% 0.16%
monchi: 0.44% 1.57% 2.44% 3.34% 6.86% 9.57% 8.85% 11.41% 14.30% 10.76% 8.49% 9.09% 6.34% 2.82% 2.01% 1.40% 0.32%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +
Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
ThorZaIN: 29.27% 27.91% 21.43% 13.99% 7.40%
fOrGG: 6.21% 12.08% 19.78% 28.44% 33.49%
ret: 42.08% 26.77% 17.05% 9.50% 4.59%
HerO: 4.61% 9.94% 16.93% 27.54% 40.98%
Naniwa: 17.82% 23.29% 24.82% 20.53% 13.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
ThorZaIN: 13.00% 36.55% 34.98% 13.61% 1.86%
fOrGG: 1.36% 11.68% 33.05% 38.53% 15.39%
ret: 20.90% 40.98% 28.73% 8.47% 0.92%
HerO: 0.94% 8.65% 28.73% 41.37% 20.30%
Naniwa: 6.46% 27.35% 39.12% 22.53% 4.54%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ThorZaIN: 1.14% 3.93% 4.77% 5.85% 11.14% 13.43% 10.57% 11.75% 12.95% 8.66% 5.42% 5.08% 3.02% 1.15% 0.67% 0.39% 0.08%
fOrGG: 0.06% 0.26% 0.51% 0.87% 2.46% 4.35% 4.77% 7.45% 12.45% 11.21% 10.66% 14.24% 12.32% 6.56% 5.57% 4.76% 1.49%
ret: 2.29% 6.82% 7.36% 8.06% 13.77% 15.01% 10.17% 10.57% 10.35% 6.01% 3.68% 3.14% 1.64% 0.56% 0.37% 0.17% 0.03%
HerO: 0.02% 0.16% 0.39% 0.61% 1.73% 3.19% 3.69% 6.16% 10.48% 10.34% 10.50% 15.11% 13.77% 7.87% 7.35% 6.48% 2.16%
Naniwa: 0.45% 1.64% 2.40% 3.51% 7.48% 10.25% 9.16% 11.63% 14.61% 10.96% 8.02% 8.76% 5.62% 2.41% 1.68% 1.11% 0.30%



Hahaha - Wow!


Yeah, TheBB is kinda crazy. But he's alright.
Mark Munoz looks like Gretorp
WigglingSquid
Profile Joined August 2011
5194 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#213
On November 22 2012 21:19 Zzoram wrote:
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats?

... TheBB, I think you'd be better off without undersized links. Actually, just bold them and get it over with.
shabby
Profile Joined March 2010
Norway6402 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#214
Haha BWC burn
Jaedong, Gumibear, Leenock, Byun
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#215
lol this is funny already
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
bluQ
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Germany1724 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#216
SPIDER!!!
www.twitch.tv/bluquh (PoE, Starbow, HS)
Fueled
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1610 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#217
Spider going to DH too?!?!! This guy is truly killing eSports.
The Wood League - Where a double gas opening can still mean a Marine/SCV all-in
Ryncol
Profile Joined July 2011
United States980 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#218
LOL Incontrol's hilarious
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#219
Is there some kind of stream guide for this?
Spitmode
Profile Joined January 2011
Germany1510 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#220
haha incontrol
"Make house -> Robots come out of house -> Robots shoot lazers -> Someone wins"
Prev 1 9 10 11 12 13 152 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
The PiG Daily
21:15
The Best Games of SC
Solar vs Reynor
Clem vs TBD
Classic vs TBD
Solar vs herO
PiGStarcraft731
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
PiGStarcraft731
Nathanias 124
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 16394
Shuttle 80
Sexy 36
NaDa 17
Dota 2
syndereN486
Pyrionflax206
monkeys_forever94
capcasts50
Counter-Strike
Fnx 350
m0e_tv61
Super Smash Bros
hungrybox305
Other Games
FrodaN3586
shahzam451
B2W.Neo224
KnowMe134
JimRising 100
minikerr23
Liquid`Ken8
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick48925
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 19 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 140
• musti20045 53
• RyuSc2 20
• Migwel
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• blackmanpl 65
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota21384
• WagamamaTV514
• Ler77
League of Legends
• Doublelift6474
Other Games
• imaqtpie1498
Upcoming Events
SOOP
3h 34m
SHIN vs GuMiho
Cure vs Creator
The PondCast
9h 34m
Wardi Open
11h 34m
Big Gabe XPERIONCRAFT
12h 34m
AI Arena Tournament
19h 34m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 9h
WardiTV Invitational
1d 12h
IPSL
1d 19h
DragOn vs Sziky
Replay Cast
2 days
Wardi Open
2 days
[ Show More ]
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
WardiTV Invitational
3 days
WardiTV Invitational
4 days
The PondCast
5 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Escore Tournament S1: W3
WardiTV 2025
META Madness #9

Ongoing

C-Race Season 1
IPSL Winter 2025-26
BSL 21 Non-Korean Championship
OSC Championship Season 13
Big Gabe Cup #3
eXTREMESLAND 2025
SL Budapest Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025

Upcoming

CSL 2025 WINTER (S19)
Escore Tournament S1: W4
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
Bellum Gens Elite Stara Zagora 2026
HSC XXVIII
Rongyi Cup S3
Thunderfire SC2 All-star 2025
Nations Cup 2026
Underdog Cup #3
NA Kuram Kup
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League Season 23
ESL Pro League Season 23
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter Qual
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.