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[DreamHack] Winter Day 1 - Page 11

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
November 22 2012 12:17 GMT
#201
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
Fueled
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1610 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#202
On November 22 2012 21:17 Schelim wrote:
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.

I'd have to agree with that
The Wood League - Where a double gas opening can still mean a Marine/SCV all-in
shabby
Profile Joined March 2010
Norway6402 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#203
On November 22 2012 21:17 Schelim wrote:
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.


I almost agree. If group 1 gets a good BYOC and Ret is in bad shape again I'd say group 1 is harder.
Jaedong, Gumibear, Leenock, Byun
ELA
Profile Joined April 2010
Denmark4608 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#204
On November 22 2012 21:14 TheBB wrote:
By the way, here are my numbers from before.

Show nested quote +
On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:
Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +
Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TaeJa: 4.18% 11.72% 18.75% 27.66% 37.69%
Stephano: 4.94% 13.49% 20.34% 28.10% 33.12%
Fraer: 14.52% 26.23% 25.48% 19.95% 13.82%
TheStC: 14.46% 26.45% 25.37% 19.88% 13.83%
SjoW: 61.89% 22.11% 10.06% 4.41% 1.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
TaeJa: 0.94% 9.24% 30.60% 40.65% 18.57%
Stephano: 1.20% 11.23% 32.93% 38.78% 15.86%
Fraer: 5.49% 26.61% 40.08% 23.22% 4.60%
TheStC: 5.28% 27.15% 39.75% 23.21% 4.61%
SjoW: 37.12% 42.24% 17.37% 3.11% 0.16%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TaeJa: 0.05% 0.21% 0.33% 0.65% 1.83% 3.40% 4.04% 6.54% 11.04% 10.93% 10.49% 14.88% 13.47% 7.53% 6.76% 5.86% 1.99%
Stephano: 0.05% 0.26% 0.42% 0.75% 2.41% 4.08% 4.66% 7.45% 12.25% 11.55% 10.29% 14.45% 12.40% 6.73% 5.92% 4.83% 1.51%
Fraer: 0.37% 1.32% 2.21% 2.98% 6.93% 10.19% 9.11% 11.41% 15.49% 11.25% 8.32% 8.59% 6.02% 2.59% 1.75% 1.15% 0.31%
TheStC: 0.30% 1.37% 1.94% 3.13% 7.17% 10.15% 9.20% 11.78% 14.92% 11.32% 8.19% 8.70% 6.11% 2.53% 1.73% 1.20% 0.26%
SjoW: 5.48% 13.71% 12.35% 10.92% 15.98% 14.16% 8.29% 6.85% 6.06% 2.94% 1.43% 1.10% 0.50% 0.15% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +
Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Mana: 6.88% 13.71% 19.80% 26.58% 33.03%
Bly: 7.04% 13.86% 20.22% 26.33% 32.56%
SaSe: 13.26% 20.39% 23.66% 22.76% 19.94%
StarNaN: 50.31% 24.84% 13.85% 7.50% 3.49%
Socke: 22.51% 27.20% 22.47% 16.83% 10.98%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Mana: 1.72% 12.59% 33.45% 37.65% 14.58%
Bly: 1.80% 12.81% 33.93% 37.42% 14.04%
SaSe: 4.26% 21.54% 38.74% 28.23% 7.23%
StarNaN: 26.08% 42.42% 24.69% 6.25% 0.57%
Socke: 8.87% 31.88% 38.10% 18.00% 3.15%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mana: 0.07% 0.34% 0.65% 1.08% 2.61% 4.71% 5.10% 7.80% 12.59% 11.52% 10.60% 13.85% 11.70% 6.17% 5.37% 4.50% 1.34%
Bly: 0.10% 0.36% 0.66% 1.07% 2.78% 4.81% 5.12% 8.08% 12.49% 11.71% 10.50% 13.81% 11.72% 6.24% 5.15% 4.17% 1.22%
SaSe: 0.23% 1.07% 1.63% 2.26% 5.56% 8.12% 7.72% 10.65% 14.69% 11.54% 9.44% 10.21% 8.05% 3.75% 2.77% 1.88% 0.42%
StarNaN: 3.11% 8.80% 9.13% 9.21% 14.81% 15.13% 9.81% 9.26% 8.79% 5.00% 2.78% 2.19% 1.20% 0.43% 0.21% 0.11% 0.02%
Socke: 0.62% 2.43% 3.34% 4.31% 9.11% 12.19% 9.95% 11.94% 14.28% 9.95% 6.99% 6.75% 4.28% 1.75% 1.15% 0.79% 0.17%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +
Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Nerchio: 4.89% 9.26% 14.52% 23.71% 47.61%
DIMAGA: 27.51% 23.15% 20.71% 17.62% 11.00%
TargA: 22.59% 22.68% 21.87% 19.47% 13.38%
TheLittleOne: 26.07% 23.80% 21.05% 17.50% 11.58%
monchi: 18.94% 21.10% 21.84% 21.69% 16.44%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Nerchio: 0.90% 8.18% 27.11% 40.78% 23.03%
DIMAGA: 10.54% 32.42% 36.26% 17.71% 3.07%
TargA: 7.93% 29.59% 37.75% 20.77% 3.95%
TheLittleOne: 10.00% 31.86% 36.72% 18.12% 3.30%
monchi: 6.39% 25.80% 37.97% 24.40% 5.44%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nerchio: 0.03% 0.18% 0.32% 0.55% 1.52% 3.08% 3.55% 5.73% 9.75% 9.99% 10.17% 14.60% 13.79% 8.50% 8.12% 7.44% 2.68%
DIMAGA: 0.77% 3.03% 3.87% 4.89% 9.51% 12.21% 9.99% 11.41% 13.44% 9.48% 6.89% 6.52% 4.36% 1.68% 1.10% 0.70% 0.14%
TargA: 0.58% 2.10% 2.99% 3.87% 8.37% 11.18% 9.38% 11.60% 14.00% 10.46% 7.64% 7.82% 5.20% 2.19% 1.46% 0.92% 0.26%
TheLittleOne: 0.78% 2.79% 3.68% 4.76% 9.13% 12.01% 9.87% 11.85% 13.76% 9.45% 6.86% 6.82% 4.22% 1.85% 1.23% 0.78% 0.16%
monchi: 0.44% 1.57% 2.44% 3.34% 6.86% 9.57% 8.85% 11.41% 14.30% 10.76% 8.49% 9.09% 6.34% 2.82% 2.01% 1.40% 0.32%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +
Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
ThorZaIN: 29.27% 27.91% 21.43% 13.99% 7.40%
fOrGG: 6.21% 12.08% 19.78% 28.44% 33.49%
ret: 42.08% 26.77% 17.05% 9.50% 4.59%
HerO: 4.61% 9.94% 16.93% 27.54% 40.98%
Naniwa: 17.82% 23.29% 24.82% 20.53% 13.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
ThorZaIN: 13.00% 36.55% 34.98% 13.61% 1.86%
fOrGG: 1.36% 11.68% 33.05% 38.53% 15.39%
ret: 20.90% 40.98% 28.73% 8.47% 0.92%
HerO: 0.94% 8.65% 28.73% 41.37% 20.30%
Naniwa: 6.46% 27.35% 39.12% 22.53% 4.54%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ThorZaIN: 1.14% 3.93% 4.77% 5.85% 11.14% 13.43% 10.57% 11.75% 12.95% 8.66% 5.42% 5.08% 3.02% 1.15% 0.67% 0.39% 0.08%
fOrGG: 0.06% 0.26% 0.51% 0.87% 2.46% 4.35% 4.77% 7.45% 12.45% 11.21% 10.66% 14.24% 12.32% 6.56% 5.57% 4.76% 1.49%
ret: 2.29% 6.82% 7.36% 8.06% 13.77% 15.01% 10.17% 10.57% 10.35% 6.01% 3.68% 3.14% 1.64% 0.56% 0.37% 0.17% 0.03%
HerO: 0.02% 0.16% 0.39% 0.61% 1.73% 3.19% 3.69% 6.16% 10.48% 10.34% 10.50% 15.11% 13.77% 7.87% 7.35% 6.48% 2.16%
Naniwa: 0.45% 1.64% 2.40% 3.51% 7.48% 10.25% 9.16% 11.63% 14.61% 10.96% 8.02% 8.76% 5.62% 2.41% 1.68% 1.11% 0.30%



Hahaha - Wow!
The first link of chain forged, the first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably.
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
November 22 2012 12:18 GMT
#205
StarNaN vs. Bly

StarNaN wins (23.61%):
      2-0: 9.97%
      2-1: 13.64%

Bly wins (76.39%):
      2-0: 46.83%
      2-1: 29.57%

Most likely winner: Bly (76.39%)
Most likely outcome: StarNaN 0-2 Bly (46.83%)

[image loading]

details, data source, code
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#206
Elfi doing his storm rush build again that he showed at the GD ASUS Invitational.
Fueled
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1610 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#207
I think StC has this. Going to be tough, but I think he'll pull through.
The Wood League - Where a double gas opening can still mean a Marine/SCV all-in
TheSir
Profile Joined February 2012
1830 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#208
New background for the casters looks good, way better then previous one
Musicus
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany23576 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#209
On November 22 2012 21:17 Schelim wrote:
no matter what people say, i still maintain that group 1 is harder than group 4. they are both insane though, no doubt.


I also agree with you.
Maru and Serral are probably top 5.
Masq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada1792 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#210
Is the audio messed up or something? I keep hearing a strange echo
Zzoram
Profile Joined February 2008
Canada7115 Posts
November 22 2012 12:19 GMT
#211
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats?
AlternativeEgo
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden17309 Posts
November 22 2012 12:20 GMT
#212
On November 22 2012 21:18 ELA wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2012 21:14 TheBB wrote:
By the way, here are my numbers from before.

On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:
Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +
Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TaeJa: 4.18% 11.72% 18.75% 27.66% 37.69%
Stephano: 4.94% 13.49% 20.34% 28.10% 33.12%
Fraer: 14.52% 26.23% 25.48% 19.95% 13.82%
TheStC: 14.46% 26.45% 25.37% 19.88% 13.83%
SjoW: 61.89% 22.11% 10.06% 4.41% 1.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
TaeJa: 0.94% 9.24% 30.60% 40.65% 18.57%
Stephano: 1.20% 11.23% 32.93% 38.78% 15.86%
Fraer: 5.49% 26.61% 40.08% 23.22% 4.60%
TheStC: 5.28% 27.15% 39.75% 23.21% 4.61%
SjoW: 37.12% 42.24% 17.37% 3.11% 0.16%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TaeJa: 0.05% 0.21% 0.33% 0.65% 1.83% 3.40% 4.04% 6.54% 11.04% 10.93% 10.49% 14.88% 13.47% 7.53% 6.76% 5.86% 1.99%
Stephano: 0.05% 0.26% 0.42% 0.75% 2.41% 4.08% 4.66% 7.45% 12.25% 11.55% 10.29% 14.45% 12.40% 6.73% 5.92% 4.83% 1.51%
Fraer: 0.37% 1.32% 2.21% 2.98% 6.93% 10.19% 9.11% 11.41% 15.49% 11.25% 8.32% 8.59% 6.02% 2.59% 1.75% 1.15% 0.31%
TheStC: 0.30% 1.37% 1.94% 3.13% 7.17% 10.15% 9.20% 11.78% 14.92% 11.32% 8.19% 8.70% 6.11% 2.53% 1.73% 1.20% 0.26%
SjoW: 5.48% 13.71% 12.35% 10.92% 15.98% 14.16% 8.29% 6.85% 6.06% 2.94% 1.43% 1.10% 0.50% 0.15% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +
Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Mana: 6.88% 13.71% 19.80% 26.58% 33.03%
Bly: 7.04% 13.86% 20.22% 26.33% 32.56%
SaSe: 13.26% 20.39% 23.66% 22.76% 19.94%
StarNaN: 50.31% 24.84% 13.85% 7.50% 3.49%
Socke: 22.51% 27.20% 22.47% 16.83% 10.98%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Mana: 1.72% 12.59% 33.45% 37.65% 14.58%
Bly: 1.80% 12.81% 33.93% 37.42% 14.04%
SaSe: 4.26% 21.54% 38.74% 28.23% 7.23%
StarNaN: 26.08% 42.42% 24.69% 6.25% 0.57%
Socke: 8.87% 31.88% 38.10% 18.00% 3.15%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mana: 0.07% 0.34% 0.65% 1.08% 2.61% 4.71% 5.10% 7.80% 12.59% 11.52% 10.60% 13.85% 11.70% 6.17% 5.37% 4.50% 1.34%
Bly: 0.10% 0.36% 0.66% 1.07% 2.78% 4.81% 5.12% 8.08% 12.49% 11.71% 10.50% 13.81% 11.72% 6.24% 5.15% 4.17% 1.22%
SaSe: 0.23% 1.07% 1.63% 2.26% 5.56% 8.12% 7.72% 10.65% 14.69% 11.54% 9.44% 10.21% 8.05% 3.75% 2.77% 1.88% 0.42%
StarNaN: 3.11% 8.80% 9.13% 9.21% 14.81% 15.13% 9.81% 9.26% 8.79% 5.00% 2.78% 2.19% 1.20% 0.43% 0.21% 0.11% 0.02%
Socke: 0.62% 2.43% 3.34% 4.31% 9.11% 12.19% 9.95% 11.94% 14.28% 9.95% 6.99% 6.75% 4.28% 1.75% 1.15% 0.79% 0.17%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +
Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Nerchio: 4.89% 9.26% 14.52% 23.71% 47.61%
DIMAGA: 27.51% 23.15% 20.71% 17.62% 11.00%
TargA: 22.59% 22.68% 21.87% 19.47% 13.38%
TheLittleOne: 26.07% 23.80% 21.05% 17.50% 11.58%
monchi: 18.94% 21.10% 21.84% 21.69% 16.44%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Nerchio: 0.90% 8.18% 27.11% 40.78% 23.03%
DIMAGA: 10.54% 32.42% 36.26% 17.71% 3.07%
TargA: 7.93% 29.59% 37.75% 20.77% 3.95%
TheLittleOne: 10.00% 31.86% 36.72% 18.12% 3.30%
monchi: 6.39% 25.80% 37.97% 24.40% 5.44%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nerchio: 0.03% 0.18% 0.32% 0.55% 1.52% 3.08% 3.55% 5.73% 9.75% 9.99% 10.17% 14.60% 13.79% 8.50% 8.12% 7.44% 2.68%
DIMAGA: 0.77% 3.03% 3.87% 4.89% 9.51% 12.21% 9.99% 11.41% 13.44% 9.48% 6.89% 6.52% 4.36% 1.68% 1.10% 0.70% 0.14%
TargA: 0.58% 2.10% 2.99% 3.87% 8.37% 11.18% 9.38% 11.60% 14.00% 10.46% 7.64% 7.82% 5.20% 2.19% 1.46% 0.92% 0.26%
TheLittleOne: 0.78% 2.79% 3.68% 4.76% 9.13% 12.01% 9.87% 11.85% 13.76% 9.45% 6.86% 6.82% 4.22% 1.85% 1.23% 0.78% 0.16%
monchi: 0.44% 1.57% 2.44% 3.34% 6.86% 9.57% 8.85% 11.41% 14.30% 10.76% 8.49% 9.09% 6.34% 2.82% 2.01% 1.40% 0.32%


+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +
Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Detailed placement probabilities

5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
ThorZaIN: 29.27% 27.91% 21.43% 13.99% 7.40%
fOrGG: 6.21% 12.08% 19.78% 28.44% 33.49%
ret: 42.08% 26.77% 17.05% 9.50% 4.59%
HerO: 4.61% 9.94% 16.93% 27.54% 40.98%
Naniwa: 17.82% 23.29% 24.82% 20.53% 13.53%

Match score

0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
ThorZaIN: 13.00% 36.55% 34.98% 13.61% 1.86%
fOrGG: 1.36% 11.68% 33.05% 38.53% 15.39%
ret: 20.90% 40.98% 28.73% 8.47% 0.92%
HerO: 0.94% 8.65% 28.73% 41.37% 20.30%
Naniwa: 6.46% 27.35% 39.12% 22.53% 4.54%

Set score

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ThorZaIN: 1.14% 3.93% 4.77% 5.85% 11.14% 13.43% 10.57% 11.75% 12.95% 8.66% 5.42% 5.08% 3.02% 1.15% 0.67% 0.39% 0.08%
fOrGG: 0.06% 0.26% 0.51% 0.87% 2.46% 4.35% 4.77% 7.45% 12.45% 11.21% 10.66% 14.24% 12.32% 6.56% 5.57% 4.76% 1.49%
ret: 2.29% 6.82% 7.36% 8.06% 13.77% 15.01% 10.17% 10.57% 10.35% 6.01% 3.68% 3.14% 1.64% 0.56% 0.37% 0.17% 0.03%
HerO: 0.02% 0.16% 0.39% 0.61% 1.73% 3.19% 3.69% 6.16% 10.48% 10.34% 10.50% 15.11% 13.77% 7.87% 7.35% 6.48% 2.16%
Naniwa: 0.45% 1.64% 2.40% 3.51% 7.48% 10.25% 9.16% 11.63% 14.61% 10.96% 8.02% 8.76% 5.62% 2.41% 1.68% 1.11% 0.30%



Hahaha - Wow!


Yeah, TheBB is kinda crazy. But he's alright.
Mark Munoz looks like Gretorp
WigglingSquid
Profile Joined August 2011
5194 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#213
On November 22 2012 21:19 Zzoram wrote:
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats?

... TheBB, I think you'd be better off without undersized links. Actually, just bold them and get it over with.
shabby
Profile Joined March 2010
Norway6402 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#214
Haha BWC burn
Jaedong, Gumibear, Leenock, Byun
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#215
lol this is funny already
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
bluQ
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Germany1724 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#216
SPIDER!!!
www.twitch.tv/bluquh (PoE, Starbow, HS)
Fueled
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1610 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#217
Spider going to DH too?!?!! This guy is truly killing eSports.
The Wood League - Where a double gas opening can still mean a Marine/SCV all-in
Ryncol
Profile Joined July 2011
United States980 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#218
LOL Incontrol's hilarious
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#219
Is there some kind of stream guide for this?
Spitmode
Profile Joined January 2011
Germany1510 Posts
November 22 2012 12:21 GMT
#220
haha incontrol
"Make house -> Robots come out of house -> Robots shoot lazers -> Someone wins"
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