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Omg Socke you beast <3<3<3<3<3<3
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On November 22 2012 21:20 AlternativeEgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2012 21:18 ELA wrote:On November 22 2012 21:14 TheBB wrote:By the way, here are my numbers from before. On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.) + Show Spoiler [Group 1] +Group 1
TaeJa
Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)
Stephano
Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)
Fraer
Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)
TheStC
Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)
SjoW
Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
Most likely place: 5th (61.89%) Detailed placement probabilities
5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
TaeJa: 4.18% 11.72% 18.75% 27.66% 37.69%
Stephano: 4.94% 13.49% 20.34% 28.10% 33.12%
Fraer: 14.52% 26.23% 25.48% 19.95% 13.82%
TheStC: 14.46% 26.45% 25.37% 19.88% 13.83%
SjoW: 61.89% 22.11% 10.06% 4.41% 1.53%
Match score
0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
TaeJa: 0.94% 9.24% 30.60% 40.65% 18.57%
Stephano: 1.20% 11.23% 32.93% 38.78% 15.86%
Fraer: 5.49% 26.61% 40.08% 23.22% 4.60%
TheStC: 5.28% 27.15% 39.75% 23.21% 4.61%
SjoW: 37.12% 42.24% 17.37% 3.11% 0.16%
Set score
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TaeJa: 0.05% 0.21% 0.33% 0.65% 1.83% 3.40% 4.04% 6.54% 11.04% 10.93% 10.49% 14.88% 13.47% 7.53% 6.76% 5.86% 1.99%
Stephano: 0.05% 0.26% 0.42% 0.75% 2.41% 4.08% 4.66% 7.45% 12.25% 11.55% 10.29% 14.45% 12.40% 6.73% 5.92% 4.83% 1.51%
Fraer: 0.37% 1.32% 2.21% 2.98% 6.93% 10.19% 9.11% 11.41% 15.49% 11.25% 8.32% 8.59% 6.02% 2.59% 1.75% 1.15% 0.31%
TheStC: 0.30% 1.37% 1.94% 3.13% 7.17% 10.15% 9.20% 11.78% 14.92% 11.32% 8.19% 8.70% 6.11% 2.53% 1.73% 1.20% 0.26%
SjoW: 5.48% 13.71% 12.35% 10.92% 15.98% 14.16% 8.29% 6.85% 6.06% 2.94% 1.43% 1.10% 0.50% 0.15% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% Group 2
Mana
Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)
Bly
Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)
SaSe
Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)
Socke
Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)
StarNaN
Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
Most likely place: 5th (50.31%) Detailed placement probabilities
5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Mana: 6.88% 13.71% 19.80% 26.58% 33.03%
Bly: 7.04% 13.86% 20.22% 26.33% 32.56%
SaSe: 13.26% 20.39% 23.66% 22.76% 19.94%
StarNaN: 50.31% 24.84% 13.85% 7.50% 3.49%
Socke: 22.51% 27.20% 22.47% 16.83% 10.98%
Match score
0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Mana: 1.72% 12.59% 33.45% 37.65% 14.58%
Bly: 1.80% 12.81% 33.93% 37.42% 14.04%
SaSe: 4.26% 21.54% 38.74% 28.23% 7.23%
StarNaN: 26.08% 42.42% 24.69% 6.25% 0.57%
Socke: 8.87% 31.88% 38.10% 18.00% 3.15%
Set score
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mana: 0.07% 0.34% 0.65% 1.08% 2.61% 4.71% 5.10% 7.80% 12.59% 11.52% 10.60% 13.85% 11.70% 6.17% 5.37% 4.50% 1.34%
Bly: 0.10% 0.36% 0.66% 1.07% 2.78% 4.81% 5.12% 8.08% 12.49% 11.71% 10.50% 13.81% 11.72% 6.24% 5.15% 4.17% 1.22%
SaSe: 0.23% 1.07% 1.63% 2.26% 5.56% 8.12% 7.72% 10.65% 14.69% 11.54% 9.44% 10.21% 8.05% 3.75% 2.77% 1.88% 0.42%
StarNaN: 3.11% 8.80% 9.13% 9.21% 14.81% 15.13% 9.81% 9.26% 8.79% 5.00% 2.78% 2.19% 1.20% 0.43% 0.21% 0.11% 0.02%
Socke: 0.62% 2.43% 3.34% 4.31% 9.11% 12.19% 9.95% 11.94% 14.28% 9.95% 6.99% 6.75% 4.28% 1.75% 1.15% 0.79% 0.17% Group 3
Nerchio
Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)
monchi
Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)
TargA
Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)
TheLittleOne
Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)
DIMAGA
Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
Most likely place: 5th (27.51%) Detailed placement probabilities
5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Nerchio: 4.89% 9.26% 14.52% 23.71% 47.61%
DIMAGA: 27.51% 23.15% 20.71% 17.62% 11.00%
TargA: 22.59% 22.68% 21.87% 19.47% 13.38%
TheLittleOne: 26.07% 23.80% 21.05% 17.50% 11.58%
monchi: 18.94% 21.10% 21.84% 21.69% 16.44%
Match score
0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
Nerchio: 0.90% 8.18% 27.11% 40.78% 23.03%
DIMAGA: 10.54% 32.42% 36.26% 17.71% 3.07%
TargA: 7.93% 29.59% 37.75% 20.77% 3.95%
TheLittleOne: 10.00% 31.86% 36.72% 18.12% 3.30%
monchi: 6.39% 25.80% 37.97% 24.40% 5.44%
Set score
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Nerchio: 0.03% 0.18% 0.32% 0.55% 1.52% 3.08% 3.55% 5.73% 9.75% 9.99% 10.17% 14.60% 13.79% 8.50% 8.12% 7.44% 2.68%
DIMAGA: 0.77% 3.03% 3.87% 4.89% 9.51% 12.21% 9.99% 11.41% 13.44% 9.48% 6.89% 6.52% 4.36% 1.68% 1.10% 0.70% 0.14%
TargA: 0.58% 2.10% 2.99% 3.87% 8.37% 11.18% 9.38% 11.60% 14.00% 10.46% 7.64% 7.82% 5.20% 2.19% 1.46% 0.92% 0.26%
TheLittleOne: 0.78% 2.79% 3.68% 4.76% 9.13% 12.01% 9.87% 11.85% 13.76% 9.45% 6.86% 6.82% 4.22% 1.85% 1.23% 0.78% 0.16%
monchi: 0.44% 1.57% 2.44% 3.34% 6.86% 9.57% 8.85% 11.41% 14.30% 10.76% 8.49% 9.09% 6.34% 2.82% 2.01% 1.40% 0.32% Group 4
HerO
Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)
fOrGG
Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)
Naniwa
Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)
ThorZaIN
Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)
ret
Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
Most likely place: 5th (42.08%) Detailed placement probabilities
5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
ThorZaIN: 29.27% 27.91% 21.43% 13.99% 7.40%
fOrGG: 6.21% 12.08% 19.78% 28.44% 33.49%
ret: 42.08% 26.77% 17.05% 9.50% 4.59%
HerO: 4.61% 9.94% 16.93% 27.54% 40.98%
Naniwa: 17.82% 23.29% 24.82% 20.53% 13.53%
Match score
0-4 1-3 2-2 3-1 4-0
ThorZaIN: 13.00% 36.55% 34.98% 13.61% 1.86%
fOrGG: 1.36% 11.68% 33.05% 38.53% 15.39%
ret: 20.90% 40.98% 28.73% 8.47% 0.92%
HerO: 0.94% 8.65% 28.73% 41.37% 20.30%
Naniwa: 6.46% 27.35% 39.12% 22.53% 4.54%
Set score
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ThorZaIN: 1.14% 3.93% 4.77% 5.85% 11.14% 13.43% 10.57% 11.75% 12.95% 8.66% 5.42% 5.08% 3.02% 1.15% 0.67% 0.39% 0.08%
fOrGG: 0.06% 0.26% 0.51% 0.87% 2.46% 4.35% 4.77% 7.45% 12.45% 11.21% 10.66% 14.24% 12.32% 6.56% 5.57% 4.76% 1.49%
ret: 2.29% 6.82% 7.36% 8.06% 13.77% 15.01% 10.17% 10.57% 10.35% 6.01% 3.68% 3.14% 1.64% 0.56% 0.37% 0.17% 0.03%
HerO: 0.02% 0.16% 0.39% 0.61% 1.73% 3.19% 3.69% 6.16% 10.48% 10.34% 10.50% 15.11% 13.77% 7.87% 7.35% 6.48% 2.16%
Naniwa: 0.45% 1.64% 2.40% 3.51% 7.48% 10.25% 9.16% 11.63% 14.61% 10.96% 8.02% 8.76% 5.62% 2.41% 1.68% 1.11% 0.30% Hahaha - Wow! Yeah, TheBB is kinda crazy. But he's alright.
Hope I'm not spamming. XD
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sick game by socke
that warpprism!
well played
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Austria24420 Posts
-_- can't watch games until like 8pm CET. damn damn damn damn damn
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On November 22 2012 21:21 WigglingSquid wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2012 21:19 Zzoram wrote:
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats? ... TheBB, I think you'd be better off without undersized links. Actually, just bold them and get it over with. 
I don't want to.... uhh, intrude.
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SOCKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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On November 22 2012 21:25 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2012 21:24 Zzoram wrote:On November 22 2012 21:21 WigglingSquid wrote:On November 22 2012 21:19 Zzoram wrote:
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats? ... TheBB, I think you'd be better off without undersized links. Actually, just bold them and get it over with. Why can't you just answer the question? because it's been asked many many times. if you look at his posts, you can see the answer there already
The "details" link explains it talking about ELO but also says he changed his data source so that's not relevant anymore.
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Ingame sound on Stream1 a bit loud cO
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On November 22 2012 21:27 Zzoram wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2012 21:25 opterown wrote:On November 22 2012 21:24 Zzoram wrote:On November 22 2012 21:21 WigglingSquid wrote:On November 22 2012 21:19 Zzoram wrote:
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats? ... TheBB, I think you'd be better off without undersized links. Actually, just bold them and get it over with. Why can't you just answer the question? because it's been asked many many times. if you look at his posts, you can see the answer there already The "details" link explains it talking about ELO but also says he changed his data source so that's not relevant anymore.
I link to the new data source, though. sc2charts.net
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On November 22 2012 21:28 bluQ wrote:
Ingame sound on Stream1 a bit loud cO
Yeah, game sounds definitely too high in the mix
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Who won Bly vs Starnan G1?
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Caster voices are very low and game sounds high
e: now it's better, game sounds still a bit high maybe
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On November 22 2012 21:28 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2012 21:27 Zzoram wrote:On November 22 2012 21:25 opterown wrote:On November 22 2012 21:24 Zzoram wrote:On November 22 2012 21:21 WigglingSquid wrote:On November 22 2012 21:19 Zzoram wrote:
How is TheBB calculating these placement probabilities? TLPD stats? ... TheBB, I think you'd be better off without undersized links. Actually, just bold them and get it over with. Why can't you just answer the question? because it's been asked many many times. if you look at his posts, you can see the answer there already The "details" link explains it talking about ELO but also says he changed his data source so that's not relevant anymore. I link to the new data source, though. sc2charts.net
What is the reason for using sc2charts.net instead of TLPD ELO? Could you please add that reason to the "Details" post?
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btw after watching gsl this hd streams is like the heaven of esports
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On November 22 2012 21:29 daemir wrote:
Caster voices are very low and game sounds high
holy crap, now everything's too loud
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United Kingdom10823 Posts
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Lol just turn down the ingame sounds SPIDER!!!
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EPT
