[DreamHack] Winter Day 1 - Page 152

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Elite_

United States4259 Posts

November 23 2012 07:42 GMT

#3021

Is day 2 anything other than BYOC players completing the groups?

Ryncol

United States980 Posts

November 23 2012 08:06 GMT

#3022

On November 23 2012 16:12 dcemuser wrote:
Finding the schedule was actually extremely difficult, lol. Took me around 20 minutes, but I may have been unlucky and kept just missing it.

Anyway, http://open.dreamhack.se/news/2012/11/20/schedule.html. The first match is at 13:00 just like Day 1, so use the time indicator at the top of the OP of this thread to find out when it starts for your time zone (7:00 a.m. EST)

Thank you very much!

ReachTheSky

United States3294 Posts

November 23 2012 08:12 GMT

#3023

I don't see dreamhack on the calendar for today or tomorrow or the next couple days. Am i missing something or was it just not posted yet?

Kreb

4834 Posts

November 23 2012 08:15 GMT

#3024

On November 23 2012 16:36 Trashman420 wrote:
I agree with previous sentiments that TLO's 7-5 should never trumph Nerchio's 6-3. Please fix this, Dreamhack.

They probably use a "mini-table" between the three people in the tie-breaker first. Then if its equal they count total map score against all players in the group. And....
TLO: Won 2-1 lost 1-2
Monchi: Won 2-0 lost 1-2
Nerchio: Won 2-1 lost 0-2
As such the table is correct.

Not sure what common practice is regarding this, but its certainly not a new thing. I know I've seen many other use it. It actually makes sense since you beating the last guy in the group 2-1 or 2-0 (possibly when the guy was alrady out)shouldnt have impact unless it has to.

JonIrenicus

Italy602 Posts

November 23 2012 08:20 GMT

#3025

--- Nuked ---

schaf

Germany1326 Posts

November 23 2012 08:24 GMT

#3026

edit: stupid me, wrong thread

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 23 2012 08:47 GMT

#3027

I can't find the rulebook for DHW12, but this is from DHS11:

The seed will be decided by won matches, won games and who won the group stage match between possibly tied players.

And from DHW11:

The groups are decided in the following order: points, maps +/-, internal match. In case of a three-way-tie of the previous criteria internal maps +/- will decide.

They have never used internal map score as first tiebreaker.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 23 2012 08:57 GMT

#3028

Anyway, here are the current predictions assuming sensible tiebreakers (namely match score, set score, internal matches, rematch, in that order). They seem to indicate that Feast and Nightend are the BYOCers with the best chances.

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +

Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 4.76-0.24 (sets: 9.66-1.78)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 1st (98.77%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 2.63-2.37 (sets: 7.46-7.02)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 68.47%
      Most likely place: 2nd (50.94%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 2.63-2.37 (sets: 6.46-6.02)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 65.56%
      Most likely place: 3rd (34.71%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.74-2.26 (sets: 5.62-6.82)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 41.33%
      Most likely place: 4th (37.15%)

Snute
      Expected score: 1.71-3.29 (sets: 4.84-7.51)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.64%
      Most likely place: 6th (31.31%)

elfi
      Expected score: 0.53-4.47 (sets: 4.30-9.20)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (68.69%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         TaeJa:                                        1.23%   98.77%
        TheStC:             8.73%   22.81%   17.52%   50.94%         
         Fraer:            12.68%   21.76%   34.71%   30.85%         
      Stephano:            21.52%   37.15%   36.11%    5.22%         
         Snute:   31.31%   25.77%   18.28%   11.65%   11.76%    1.23%
          elfi:   68.69%   31.31%                                    

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
         TaeJa:                                       24.08%   75.92%
        TheStC:                     36.92%   63.08%                  
         Fraer:                     36.77%   63.23%                  
      Stephano:                     26.24%   73.76%                  
         Snute:   11.81%   32.32%   33.95%   17.25%    4.30%    0.36%
          elfi:   47.00%   53.00%                                    

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
         TaeJa:                                                                                                                                           9.98%   14.10%            29.75%   46.16%         
        TheStC:                                                                           17.08%   19.84%            28.32%   34.76%                                                                        
         Fraer:                                                                           16.80%   19.97%            28.49%   34.74%                                                                        
      Stephano:                                                         11.34%   14.90%            29.76%   44.00%                                                                                          
         Snute:    0.67%    2.51%    4.07%    4.96%    8.26%   11.06%   10.34%   10.77%   12.32%    9.90%    7.29%    6.36%    4.84%    2.78%    1.75%    1.22%    0.56%    0.20%    0.10%    0.04%    0.01%
          elfi:                              23.22%   23.78%            26.07%   26.93%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +

Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 4.61-0.39 (sets: 9.43-4.07)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 1st (71.80%)

Socke
      Expected score: 3.45-1.55 (sets: 8.16-4.33)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 2nd (57.01%)

Feast
      Expected score: 2.59-2.41 (sets: 6.38-6.07)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 52.77%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.62%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.57-2.43 (sets: 5.37-7.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 38.62%
      Most likely place: 4th (41.88%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 1.49-3.51 (sets: 6.25-7.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 8.62%
      Most likely place: 5th (53.48%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 0.29-4.71 (sets: 2.87-9.59)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (93.15%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          Mana:                               2.28%   25.93%   71.80%
         Socke:                              25.88%   57.01%   17.11%
           Bly:            19.50%   41.88%   38.62%                  
          SaSe:            53.48%   37.90%    8.62%                  
         Feast:    6.85%   20.17%   20.21%   24.62%   17.06%   11.09%
       StarNaN:   93.15%    6.85%                                    

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
          Mana:                                       39.00%   61.00%
         Socke:                              55.00%   45.00%         
           Bly:                     42.61%   57.39%                  
          SaSe:            50.56%   49.44%                           
         Feast:    2.22%   13.51%   30.73%   33.75%   16.61%    3.19%
       StarNaN:   71.43%   28.57%                                    

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
          Mana:                                                                                                                        18.00%   21.00%            28.55%   32.45%                           
         Socke:                                                                                                               28.70%   26.30%            23.38%   21.61%                                    
           Bly:                                                         20.40%   22.21%            27.36%   30.03%                                                                                          
          SaSe:                                                                  24.77%   25.79%            24.84%   24.60%                                                                                 
         Feast:    0.09%    0.30%    0.72%    1.04%    2.35%    4.22%    5.07%    6.86%    9.79%   10.86%   10.29%   11.33%   11.04%    8.09%    6.19%    5.36%    3.19%    1.49%    1.08%    0.54%    0.09%
       StarNaN:                     42.06%   29.37%            16.22%   12.35%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +

Group 3

monchi
      Expected score: 3.61-1.39 (sets: 8.44-3.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 99.58%
      Most likely place: 1st (62.53%)

Nerchio
      Expected score: 3.74-1.26 (sets: 7.63-3.81)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 96.49%
      Most likely place: 2nd (50.37%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 3.58-1.42 (sets: 8.38-6.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.59%
      Most likely place: 3rd (50.28%)

Bischu
      Expected score: 1.97-3.03 (sets: 5.32-7.10)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 22.34%
      Most likely place: 4th (34.31%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.54-3.46 (sets: 4.31-7.18)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 5th (56.62%)

TargA
      Expected score: 0.56-4.44 (sets: 2.34-9.16)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (83.55%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        monchi:                      0.42%   20.86%   16.20%   62.53%
  TheLittleOne:                     18.41%   50.28%   26.43%    4.87%
       Nerchio:                      3.51%   18.02%   50.37%   28.10%
        Bischu:   16.21%   27.14%   34.31%   10.84%    7.00%    4.50%
        DIMAGA:    0.24%   56.62%   43.14%                           
         TargA:   83.55%   16.25%    0.21%                           

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        monchi:                              38.53%   61.47%         
  TheLittleOne:                              42.41%   57.59%         
       Nerchio:                              25.54%   74.46%         
        Bischu:    7.94%   26.41%   35.18%   22.55%    6.97%    0.95%
        DIMAGA:            46.05%   53.95%                           
         TargA:   44.50%   55.50%                                    

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
        monchi:                                                                                                                        17.81%   20.72%            28.14%   33.33%                           
  TheLittleOne:                                                                                             19.83%   22.58%            27.39%   30.20%                                                      
       Nerchio:                                                                                                      10.96%   14.58%            29.67%   44.78%                                             
        Bischu:    0.36%    1.67%    2.58%    3.43%    6.17%    8.88%    9.19%    9.93%   12.34%   11.07%    8.52%    8.19%    6.75%    4.08%    2.86%    2.07%    1.07%    0.43%    0.29%    0.10%    0.02%
        DIMAGA:                                                22.49%   23.56%            25.72%   28.23%                                                                                                   
         TargA:            21.83%   22.67%            26.64%   28.87%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +

Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 4.73-0.27 (sets: 9.61-1.84)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 1st (96.99%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.24-6.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 69.27%
      Most likely place: 2nd (46.38%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 2.56-2.44 (sets: 5.35-6.14)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 57.05%
      Most likely place: 3rd (34.59%)

NightEnD
      Expected score: 2.12-2.88 (sets: 5.57-6.85)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 44.57%
      Most likely place: 2nd (25.33%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 1.67-3.33 (sets: 4.53-6.94)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 19.64%
      Most likely place: 4th (32.47%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.42-3.58 (sets: 5.12-8.37)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 9.48%
      Most likely place: 6th (51.80%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          HerO:                                        3.01%   96.99%
      ThorZaIN:    0.55%    8.86%   21.32%   22.89%   46.38%         
        Naniwa:    4.77%   21.30%   16.88%   34.59%   22.46%         
           ret:   51.80%   22.88%   15.84%    8.60%    0.88%         
         fOrGG:   17.74%   30.15%   32.47%   17.69%    1.95%         
      NightEnD:   25.15%   16.80%   13.48%   16.23%   25.33%    3.01%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
          HerO:                                       27.35%   72.65%
      ThorZaIN:                     50.70%   49.30%                  
        Naniwa:                     43.71%   56.29%                  
           ret:            57.54%   42.46%                           
         fOrGG:            32.78%   67.22%                           
      NightEnD:    5.81%   23.06%   35.52%   25.56%    8.96%    1.09%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
          HerO:                                                                                                                                          11.76%   15.59%            29.65%   43.00%         
      ThorZaIN:                                                                           25.45%   25.25%            24.78%   24.53%                                                                        
        Naniwa:                                                                  20.98%   22.73%            26.72%   29.57%                                                                                 
           ret:                                                30.27%   27.27%            22.29%   20.17%                                                                                                   
         fOrGG:                                                14.61%   18.17%            28.93%   38.29%                                                                                                   
      NightEnD:    0.23%    1.07%    2.01%    2.59%    5.05%    7.83%    8.14%    9.40%   12.27%   11.44%    9.21%    9.22%    7.91%    4.94%    3.52%    2.70%    1.40%    0.55%    0.36%    0.15%    0.02%

Mosoball

Finland686 Posts

November 23 2012 08:59 GMT

#3029

No Day 2 thread yet?

Martijn

Netherlands1219 Posts

November 23 2012 11:02 GMT

#3030

I was just told I'll be streaming nightend vs hero, feast vs mana, dimaga vs bischu, feast vs socke, snute vs fraer on glhf, in that order. But yeah, we need a d2 thread ;o

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 23 2012 11:04 GMT

#3031

I'll be busy today, I can't keep an OP up to date.

opterown

Australia54784 Posts

November 23 2012 11:04 GMT

#3032

sorry, guys, i can't put much time into LR threads, hope someone can manage the rest of the LRs for IEM and DH!

kochujang

Germany1226 Posts

November 23 2012 11:33 GMT

#3033

opterown is killing Esports!

summerloud

Austria1201 Posts

November 23 2012 13:55 GMT

#3034

tuned in too late, can someone tell me if thorzain used his hilariously passive style again against nightend?

also: whats up with the missing stream links?

FnaticPink

Denmark324 Posts

November 23 2012 17:49 GMT

#3035

Naniwa: 2-3 - 5-7 -
Nightend: 2-3 - 5-7 -
H2H: Nightend

Why does liquipedia show otherwise? explain to me please