[DreamHack] Winter Day 1 - Page 14

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AlternativeEgo

Sweden17309 Posts

November 22 2012 12:30 GMT

#261

On November 22 2012 21:26 TheBB wrote:

Show nested quote +

On November 22 2012 21:20 AlternativeEgo wrote:

On November 22 2012 21:18 ELA wrote:

On November 22 2012 21:14 TheBB wrote:
By the way, here are my numbers from before.

On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:
Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +

Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         TaeJa:    4.18%   11.72%   18.75%   27.66%   37.69%
      Stephano:    4.94%   13.49%   20.34%   28.10%   33.12%
         Fraer:   14.52%   26.23%   25.48%   19.95%   13.82%
        TheStC:   14.46%   26.45%   25.37%   19.88%   13.83%
          SjoW:   61.89%   22.11%   10.06%    4.41%    1.53%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
         TaeJa:    0.94%    9.24%   30.60%   40.65%   18.57%
      Stephano:    1.20%   11.23%   32.93%   38.78%   15.86%
         Fraer:    5.49%   26.61%   40.08%   23.22%    4.60%
        TheStC:    5.28%   27.15%   39.75%   23.21%    4.61%
          SjoW:   37.12%   42.24%   17.37%    3.11%    0.16%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
         TaeJa:    0.05%    0.21%    0.33%    0.65%    1.83%    3.40%    4.04%    6.54%   11.04%   10.93%   10.49%   14.88%   13.47%    7.53%    6.76%    5.86%    1.99%
      Stephano:    0.05%    0.26%    0.42%    0.75%    2.41%    4.08%    4.66%    7.45%   12.25%   11.55%   10.29%   14.45%   12.40%    6.73%    5.92%    4.83%    1.51%
         Fraer:    0.37%    1.32%    2.21%    2.98%    6.93%   10.19%    9.11%   11.41%   15.49%   11.25%    8.32%    8.59%    6.02%    2.59%    1.75%    1.15%    0.31%
        TheStC:    0.30%    1.37%    1.94%    3.13%    7.17%   10.15%    9.20%   11.78%   14.92%   11.32%    8.19%    8.70%    6.11%    2.53%    1.73%    1.20%    0.26%
          SjoW:    5.48%   13.71%   12.35%   10.92%   15.98%   14.16%    8.29%    6.85%    6.06%    2.94%    1.43%    1.10%    0.50%    0.15%    0.05%    0.02%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +

Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          Mana:    6.88%   13.71%   19.80%   26.58%   33.03%
           Bly:    7.04%   13.86%   20.22%   26.33%   32.56%
          SaSe:   13.26%   20.39%   23.66%   22.76%   19.94%
       StarNaN:   50.31%   24.84%   13.85%    7.50%    3.49%
         Socke:   22.51%   27.20%   22.47%   16.83%   10.98%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
          Mana:    1.72%   12.59%   33.45%   37.65%   14.58%
           Bly:    1.80%   12.81%   33.93%   37.42%   14.04%
          SaSe:    4.26%   21.54%   38.74%   28.23%    7.23%
       StarNaN:   26.08%   42.42%   24.69%    6.25%    0.57%
         Socke:    8.87%   31.88%   38.10%   18.00%    3.15%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
          Mana:    0.07%    0.34%    0.65%    1.08%    2.61%    4.71%    5.10%    7.80%   12.59%   11.52%   10.60%   13.85%   11.70%    6.17%    5.37%    4.50%    1.34%
           Bly:    0.10%    0.36%    0.66%    1.07%    2.78%    4.81%    5.12%    8.08%   12.49%   11.71%   10.50%   13.81%   11.72%    6.24%    5.15%    4.17%    1.22%
          SaSe:    0.23%    1.07%    1.63%    2.26%    5.56%    8.12%    7.72%   10.65%   14.69%   11.54%    9.44%   10.21%    8.05%    3.75%    2.77%    1.88%    0.42%
       StarNaN:    3.11%    8.80%    9.13%    9.21%   14.81%   15.13%    9.81%    9.26%    8.79%    5.00%    2.78%    2.19%    1.20%    0.43%    0.21%    0.11%    0.02%
         Socke:    0.62%    2.43%    3.34%    4.31%    9.11%   12.19%    9.95%   11.94%   14.28%    9.95%    6.99%    6.75%    4.28%    1.75%    1.15%    0.79%    0.17%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +

Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
       Nerchio:    4.89%    9.26%   14.52%   23.71%   47.61%
        DIMAGA:   27.51%   23.15%   20.71%   17.62%   11.00%
         TargA:   22.59%   22.68%   21.87%   19.47%   13.38%
  TheLittleOne:   26.07%   23.80%   21.05%   17.50%   11.58%
        monchi:   18.94%   21.10%   21.84%   21.69%   16.44%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
       Nerchio:    0.90%    8.18%   27.11%   40.78%   23.03%
        DIMAGA:   10.54%   32.42%   36.26%   17.71%    3.07%
         TargA:    7.93%   29.59%   37.75%   20.77%    3.95%
  TheLittleOne:   10.00%   31.86%   36.72%   18.12%    3.30%
        monchi:    6.39%   25.80%   37.97%   24.40%    5.44%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
       Nerchio:    0.03%    0.18%    0.32%    0.55%    1.52%    3.08%    3.55%    5.73%    9.75%    9.99%   10.17%   14.60%   13.79%    8.50%    8.12%    7.44%    2.68%
        DIMAGA:    0.77%    3.03%    3.87%    4.89%    9.51%   12.21%    9.99%   11.41%   13.44%    9.48%    6.89%    6.52%    4.36%    1.68%    1.10%    0.70%    0.14%
         TargA:    0.58%    2.10%    2.99%    3.87%    8.37%   11.18%    9.38%   11.60%   14.00%   10.46%    7.64%    7.82%    5.20%    2.19%    1.46%    0.92%    0.26%
  TheLittleOne:    0.78%    2.79%    3.68%    4.76%    9.13%   12.01%    9.87%   11.85%   13.76%    9.45%    6.86%    6.82%    4.22%    1.85%    1.23%    0.78%    0.16%
        monchi:    0.44%    1.57%    2.44%    3.34%    6.86%    9.57%    8.85%   11.41%   14.30%   10.76%    8.49%    9.09%    6.34%    2.82%    2.01%    1.40%    0.32%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +

Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
      ThorZaIN:   29.27%   27.91%   21.43%   13.99%    7.40%
         fOrGG:    6.21%   12.08%   19.78%   28.44%   33.49%
           ret:   42.08%   26.77%   17.05%    9.50%    4.59%
          HerO:    4.61%    9.94%   16.93%   27.54%   40.98%
        Naniwa:   17.82%   23.29%   24.82%   20.53%   13.53%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
      ThorZaIN:   13.00%   36.55%   34.98%   13.61%    1.86%
         fOrGG:    1.36%   11.68%   33.05%   38.53%   15.39%
           ret:   20.90%   40.98%   28.73%    8.47%    0.92%
          HerO:    0.94%    8.65%   28.73%   41.37%   20.30%
        Naniwa:    6.46%   27.35%   39.12%   22.53%    4.54%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
      ThorZaIN:    1.14%    3.93%    4.77%    5.85%   11.14%   13.43%   10.57%   11.75%   12.95%    8.66%    5.42%    5.08%    3.02%    1.15%    0.67%    0.39%    0.08%
         fOrGG:    0.06%    0.26%    0.51%    0.87%    2.46%    4.35%    4.77%    7.45%   12.45%   11.21%   10.66%   14.24%   12.32%    6.56%    5.57%    4.76%    1.49%
           ret:    2.29%    6.82%    7.36%    8.06%   13.77%   15.01%   10.17%   10.57%   10.35%    6.01%    3.68%    3.14%    1.64%    0.56%    0.37%    0.17%    0.03%
          HerO:    0.02%    0.16%    0.39%    0.61%    1.73%    3.19%    3.69%    6.16%   10.48%   10.34%   10.50%   15.11%   13.77%    7.87%    7.35%    6.48%    2.16%
        Naniwa:    0.45%    1.64%    2.40%    3.51%    7.48%   10.25%    9.16%   11.63%   14.61%   10.96%    8.02%    8.76%    5.62%    2.41%    1.68%    1.11%    0.30%

Hahaha - Wow!

Yeah, TheBB is kinda crazy. But he's alright.

Hope I'm not spamming. XD

That's fine by me. Just try to get your head off the numbers every now and then and try to enjoy the games.

Schelim

Austria11528 Posts

November 22 2012 12:30 GMT

#262

it seems someone found the volume control

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 22 2012 12:30 GMT

#263

On November 22 2012 21:29 Zzoram wrote:

Show nested quote +

What is the reason for using sc2charts.net instead of TLPD ELO? Could you please add that reason to the "Details" post?

Yeah, I can get around to it eventually. SC2Charts.net use Glicko ratings, which are more accurate.

shabby

Norway6402 Posts

November 22 2012 12:31 GMT

#264

Did the NASL soundguy evolve into a spider?

AlternativeEgo

Sweden17309 Posts

November 22 2012 12:31 GMT

#265

Bly won g1

DBrave

Serbia379 Posts

November 22 2012 12:32 GMT

#266

to Sound engineer :

turn down sound from game, its too loud.
Game sounds should be lower that caster's voice, otherwise in order to hear them our ears will explode

ELA

Denmark4608 Posts

November 22 2012 12:32 GMT

#267

What do you guys think of this tech-path from Elfi?

Robo first getting observer, then Twillight for Blink and now Collossus Ô_Ô

With the amount of Sentries as well, it seems off for me... Or am I just behind on things?

ELA

Denmark4608 Posts

November 22 2012 12:33 GMT

#268

On November 22 2012 21:32 DBrave wrote:
to Sound engineer :

turn down sound from game, its too loud.
Game sounds should be lower that caster's voice, otherwise in order to hear them our ears will explode

Quick, unbold your post! - Some mods will deal out a temp ban for that

myRZeth

Germany1047 Posts

November 22 2012 12:33 GMT

#269

anyone here hearing skype sounds in stream 2?

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 22 2012 12:34 GMT

#270

This is Elfi and Taeja game 1, right?

Olli

Austria24422 Posts

November 22 2012 12:35 GMT

#271

On November 22 2012 21:32 ELA wrote:
What do you guys think of this tech-path from Elfi?

Robo first getting observer, then Twillight for Blink and now Collossus Ô_Ô

With the amount of Sentries as well, it seems off for me... Or am I just behind on things?

I'm not watching but it sounds like a super safe defensive build (if colossus gets out in time for +1 medivac pushout). It can spiral out of control really fast if you catch stuff with blink. Is he on one forge?