[DreamHack] Winter Day 1 - Page 10

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storywriter

Australia528 Posts

November 22 2012 12:09 GMT

#181

anyone know why polt isn't attending this event?

Schelim

Austria11528 Posts

November 22 2012 12:09 GMT

#182

LOL dat random laugh

Coolhwip

Sweden1381 Posts

November 22 2012 12:09 GMT

#183

HI APOLLO AND JEOFF

Dodgin

Canada39254 Posts

November 22 2012 12:09 GMT

#184

On November 22 2012 21:09 storywriter wrote:
anyone know why polt isn't attending this event?

GSTL

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 22 2012 12:09 GMT

#185

On November 22 2012 21:05 StarVe wrote:
Reminder, you can add "/new" to Twitch URLs to get their new, updated site design, which is (in my opinion) a lot better than the current one and you can hide elements like chat and channels completely.

For example:

http://www.twitch.tv/dreamhacksc2/new

I just pop the video out.

Asha

United Kingdom38149 Posts

November 22 2012 12:09 GMT

#186

On November 22 2012 21:09 storywriter wrote:
anyone know why polt isn't attending this event?

GSTL semis tomorrow

storywriter

Australia528 Posts

November 22 2012 12:10 GMT

#187

On November 22 2012 21:09 Dodgin wrote:

Show nested quote +

GSTL

ah thx

Glubschauge

Austria1216 Posts

November 22 2012 12:10 GMT

#188

Incontrol micro is kinda low

Flonomenalz

Nigeria3519 Posts

November 22 2012 12:10 GMT

#189

ugh GSL ends, Dreamhack begins.

My internet monthly cap will suffer. Ah well.

DBrave

Serbia379 Posts

November 22 2012 12:10 GMT

#190

DAMN that HQ quality stream 0.o

StarVe

Germany13591 Posts

November 22 2012 12:12 GMT

#191

On November 22 2012 21:09 TheBB wrote:

Show nested quote +

I just pop the video out.

Usually I do, too, but some people probably don't, or like to have the chat or something, and then it's a big improvement, I think.

AlternativeEgo

Sweden17309 Posts

November 22 2012 12:12 GMT

#192

On November 22 2012 21:10 Flonomenalz wrote:
ugh GSL ends, Dreamhack begins.

My internet monthly cap will suffer. Ah well.

There are people who put caps on air? The fuck is wrong with them?! D:

StarVe

Germany13591 Posts

November 22 2012 12:13 GMT

#193

Taeja vs Elfi started on GLHF.tv already btw.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 22 2012 12:14 GMT

#194

By the way, here are my numbers from before.

On November 20 2012 23:17 TheBB wrote:
Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +

Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         TaeJa:    4.18%   11.72%   18.75%   27.66%   37.69%
      Stephano:    4.94%   13.49%   20.34%   28.10%   33.12%
         Fraer:   14.52%   26.23%   25.48%   19.95%   13.82%
        TheStC:   14.46%   26.45%   25.37%   19.88%   13.83%
          SjoW:   61.89%   22.11%   10.06%    4.41%    1.53%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
         TaeJa:    0.94%    9.24%   30.60%   40.65%   18.57%
      Stephano:    1.20%   11.23%   32.93%   38.78%   15.86%
         Fraer:    5.49%   26.61%   40.08%   23.22%    4.60%
        TheStC:    5.28%   27.15%   39.75%   23.21%    4.61%
          SjoW:   37.12%   42.24%   17.37%    3.11%    0.16%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
         TaeJa:    0.05%    0.21%    0.33%    0.65%    1.83%    3.40%    4.04%    6.54%   11.04%   10.93%   10.49%   14.88%   13.47%    7.53%    6.76%    5.86%    1.99%
      Stephano:    0.05%    0.26%    0.42%    0.75%    2.41%    4.08%    4.66%    7.45%   12.25%   11.55%   10.29%   14.45%   12.40%    6.73%    5.92%    4.83%    1.51%
         Fraer:    0.37%    1.32%    2.21%    2.98%    6.93%   10.19%    9.11%   11.41%   15.49%   11.25%    8.32%    8.59%    6.02%    2.59%    1.75%    1.15%    0.31%
        TheStC:    0.30%    1.37%    1.94%    3.13%    7.17%   10.15%    9.20%   11.78%   14.92%   11.32%    8.19%    8.70%    6.11%    2.53%    1.73%    1.20%    0.26%
          SjoW:    5.48%   13.71%   12.35%   10.92%   15.98%   14.16%    8.29%    6.85%    6.06%    2.94%    1.43%    1.10%    0.50%    0.15%    0.05%    0.02%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +

Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          Mana:    6.88%   13.71%   19.80%   26.58%   33.03%
           Bly:    7.04%   13.86%   20.22%   26.33%   32.56%
          SaSe:   13.26%   20.39%   23.66%   22.76%   19.94%
       StarNaN:   50.31%   24.84%   13.85%    7.50%    3.49%
         Socke:   22.51%   27.20%   22.47%   16.83%   10.98%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
          Mana:    1.72%   12.59%   33.45%   37.65%   14.58%
           Bly:    1.80%   12.81%   33.93%   37.42%   14.04%
          SaSe:    4.26%   21.54%   38.74%   28.23%    7.23%
       StarNaN:   26.08%   42.42%   24.69%    6.25%    0.57%
         Socke:    8.87%   31.88%   38.10%   18.00%    3.15%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
          Mana:    0.07%    0.34%    0.65%    1.08%    2.61%    4.71%    5.10%    7.80%   12.59%   11.52%   10.60%   13.85%   11.70%    6.17%    5.37%    4.50%    1.34%
           Bly:    0.10%    0.36%    0.66%    1.07%    2.78%    4.81%    5.12%    8.08%   12.49%   11.71%   10.50%   13.81%   11.72%    6.24%    5.15%    4.17%    1.22%
          SaSe:    0.23%    1.07%    1.63%    2.26%    5.56%    8.12%    7.72%   10.65%   14.69%   11.54%    9.44%   10.21%    8.05%    3.75%    2.77%    1.88%    0.42%
       StarNaN:    3.11%    8.80%    9.13%    9.21%   14.81%   15.13%    9.81%    9.26%    8.79%    5.00%    2.78%    2.19%    1.20%    0.43%    0.21%    0.11%    0.02%
         Socke:    0.62%    2.43%    3.34%    4.31%    9.11%   12.19%    9.95%   11.94%   14.28%    9.95%    6.99%    6.75%    4.28%    1.75%    1.15%    0.79%    0.17%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +

Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
       Nerchio:    4.89%    9.26%   14.52%   23.71%   47.61%
        DIMAGA:   27.51%   23.15%   20.71%   17.62%   11.00%
         TargA:   22.59%   22.68%   21.87%   19.47%   13.38%
  TheLittleOne:   26.07%   23.80%   21.05%   17.50%   11.58%
        monchi:   18.94%   21.10%   21.84%   21.69%   16.44%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
       Nerchio:    0.90%    8.18%   27.11%   40.78%   23.03%
        DIMAGA:   10.54%   32.42%   36.26%   17.71%    3.07%
         TargA:    7.93%   29.59%   37.75%   20.77%    3.95%
  TheLittleOne:   10.00%   31.86%   36.72%   18.12%    3.30%
        monchi:    6.39%   25.80%   37.97%   24.40%    5.44%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
       Nerchio:    0.03%    0.18%    0.32%    0.55%    1.52%    3.08%    3.55%    5.73%    9.75%    9.99%   10.17%   14.60%   13.79%    8.50%    8.12%    7.44%    2.68%
        DIMAGA:    0.77%    3.03%    3.87%    4.89%    9.51%   12.21%    9.99%   11.41%   13.44%    9.48%    6.89%    6.52%    4.36%    1.68%    1.10%    0.70%    0.14%
         TargA:    0.58%    2.10%    2.99%    3.87%    8.37%   11.18%    9.38%   11.60%   14.00%   10.46%    7.64%    7.82%    5.20%    2.19%    1.46%    0.92%    0.26%
  TheLittleOne:    0.78%    2.79%    3.68%    4.76%    9.13%   12.01%    9.87%   11.85%   13.76%    9.45%    6.86%    6.82%    4.22%    1.85%    1.23%    0.78%    0.16%
        monchi:    0.44%    1.57%    2.44%    3.34%    6.86%    9.57%    8.85%   11.41%   14.30%   10.76%    8.49%    9.09%    6.34%    2.82%    2.01%    1.40%    0.32%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +

Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
      ThorZaIN:   29.27%   27.91%   21.43%   13.99%    7.40%
         fOrGG:    6.21%   12.08%   19.78%   28.44%   33.49%
           ret:   42.08%   26.77%   17.05%    9.50%    4.59%
          HerO:    4.61%    9.94%   16.93%   27.54%   40.98%
        Naniwa:   17.82%   23.29%   24.82%   20.53%   13.53%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
      ThorZaIN:   13.00%   36.55%   34.98%   13.61%    1.86%
         fOrGG:    1.36%   11.68%   33.05%   38.53%   15.39%
           ret:   20.90%   40.98%   28.73%    8.47%    0.92%
          HerO:    0.94%    8.65%   28.73%   41.37%   20.30%
        Naniwa:    6.46%   27.35%   39.12%   22.53%    4.54%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
      ThorZaIN:    1.14%    3.93%    4.77%    5.85%   11.14%   13.43%   10.57%   11.75%   12.95%    8.66%    5.42%    5.08%    3.02%    1.15%    0.67%    0.39%    0.08%
         fOrGG:    0.06%    0.26%    0.51%    0.87%    2.46%    4.35%    4.77%    7.45%   12.45%   11.21%   10.66%   14.24%   12.32%    6.56%    5.57%    4.76%    1.49%
           ret:    2.29%    6.82%    7.36%    8.06%   13.77%   15.01%   10.17%   10.57%   10.35%    6.01%    3.68%    3.14%    1.64%    0.56%    0.37%    0.17%    0.03%
          HerO:    0.02%    0.16%    0.39%    0.61%    1.73%    3.19%    3.69%    6.16%   10.48%   10.34%   10.50%   15.11%   13.77%    7.87%    7.35%    6.48%    2.16%
        Naniwa:    0.45%    1.64%    2.40%    3.51%    7.48%   10.25%    9.16%   11.63%   14.61%   10.96%    8.02%    8.76%    5.62%    2.41%    1.68%    1.11%    0.30%

Flonomenalz

Nigeria3519 Posts

November 22 2012 12:14 GMT

#195

On November 22 2012 21:12 AlternativeEgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

There are people who put caps on air? The fuck is wrong with them?! D:

I live in Nigeria atm man. Good internet is expensive and capped here. It's awful.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 22 2012 12:16 GMT

#196

TaeJa vs. elfi

TaeJa wins (71.47%):
      2-0: 41.91%
      2-1: 29.56%

elfi wins (28.53%):
      2-0: 12.43%
      2-1: 16.10%

Most likely winner: TaeJa (71.47%)
Most likely outcome: TaeJa 2-0 elfi (41.91%)

details, data source, code

Tchado

Jordan1831 Posts

November 22 2012 12:16 GMT

#197

Whoever wrote the Liquipedia article forgot to mention dreamhon in the "about" section.

WigglingSquid

5194 Posts

November 22 2012 12:16 GMT

#198

On November 22 2012 21:14 Flonomenalz wrote:

Show nested quote +

I live in Nigeria atm man. Good internet is expensive and capped here. It's awful.

Don't worry, I am sure that many Canadians and US citizens can understand how you must be feeling.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 22 2012 12:16 GMT

#199

Socke vs. Mana

Socke wins (34.40%):
      2-0: 15.56%
      2-1: 18.84%

Mana wins (65.60%):
      2-0: 36.68%
      2-1: 28.93%

Most likely winner: Mana (65.60%)
Most likely outcome: Socke 0-2 Mana (36.68%)