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Okay, I think I've worked out a way for Naniwa to qualify for DH winter based on this bracket. Let me break it down:
According to here Naniwa is right on the cusp of qualifying. He's at 12 points with +6 match score due to making the quarterfinals at DH summer.
So lets look at the first part of the Bracket:
Naniwa wants Mana to advance, as Mana already has a seed and thus is no threat to Naniwa.
He also wants Targa to beat Sage for the same reason, Targa is ahead of him on points and the only thing that could "change" that is if Targa makes it to the final and gets a direct seed to DH winter. If sage beats Targa, all isn't lost for Naniwa just yet, as he does have the better match score than Sage who is at +2 after 3-0ing his first group and then advancing 1-2 from his second group. It would be paramount however that Mana beat sage should sage advance.
Bly already has 5 points from DH Valencia so Naniwa would have to have Bly beaten by Rain.
It wouldn't matter to Naniwa who wins between Bly and STC as both of them already have >12 points, but it'd be critical for whichever one of those two wins to also beat rain, and Ideally advance to the finals to open up a seed.
Same logic for Nerchio vs Giantt, Nerchio would have to win.
Harstem already has 5 points so TLO would have to win there and Nerchio would have to beat TLO.
The bottom four are where it gets really complicated.
It's slightly better (match score) if Starnan beats SortOf, and DeathAngel to advance.
At this point, if somehow all of the above happened, people with exactly 12 points would be Starnan, Deathangel, Rain, and TLO.
Their match scores would be, respectively: +3, +3, +6, +5. Rain and Naniwa would each be +6 but if Rain loses after that he'd be at +5 (if I understand it correctly).
Therefore, given that one of SortOf, Starnan, Deathangel, and Monchi will advance to the semifinals and have enough points to qualify, knocking Naniwa out of his qualifying seed, Naniwa Needs at least one of the following to reach the finals to open up another point based seed:
Nerchio, Targa, Fraer, and TheSTC. Though I don't know what happens if Mana reaches the finals, as he already has a seed from DH summer.
Edit:
Also, Guaranteed Qualified for DH Winter:
Stephano = 32 Points
Nerchio >= 29 Points
Sase = 29 Points
Fraer >= 25 Points
TheSTC >= 25 Points
Targa >= 25 Points
Ret = 25 Points
Liquid Hero = 24 Points
Monster (I think is gauranteed? Not 100% sure) = 20 points.
And of course:
Polt
ThorZaIN
MaNa
DIMAGA
ForGG
TaeJa
In order to be guaranteed a spot Bly and Harstem must reach at least the semifinals (though they have a better than average chance of making it as long as they reach at least the quarterfinals in which case they'll have 17 points).
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Sweden448 Posts
On October 21 2012 06:05 Trashman420 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 05:59 Killcani wrote:
2 terran in ro16 has there ever been a worst race distribution in any tournament ever? Yeah, like every single GSL in 2011
That's false and you know it  . Most GSLs in 2011 had better race distribution if you compare to euro tournaments.
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My predictions for semifinals: TargA vs Rain, Nerchio vs monchi.
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^woah must have taken a lot of time to figure that out. And luckily for you (and Nani), most of it sounds quite possible, except maybe Starnan beating SortOf. It will be by a split hair though xD
It might also be possible for him to get a seed if one of the already qualifyed players decides to forfeit DH Winter for whatever reason, depending on the final points situation.
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On October 21 2012 06:20 Ender985 wrote:
^woah must have taken a lot of time to figure that out. And luckily for you (and Nani), most of it sounds quite possible, except maybe Starnan beating SortOf. It will be by a split hair though xD
It might also be possible for him to get a seed if one of the already qualifyed players decides to forfeit DH Winter for whatever reason, depending on the final points situation.
Took a little while but it's pretty aweful outside so I didn't really have anything better to do.
TBH, I don't care as much about Nani as I do TLO haha, it'd be SOOOOOO awesome to see him make it. (Though I don't know if there's a way both TLO and Naniwa can qualify, could be wrong though. Maybe if TLO and one of STC or Fraer or Targa reach the finals and rain loses in quarterfinals actually).
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Does somebody know when they are going to start tomorrow? 11/12/13 CET?
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Ahh, I'm still sad. Randomness can be so awful sometimes. Nerchio got lucky getting second, if fraer had been second he'd been up against Giantt and the winner of TLO/Harstem next. That'd be pretty easy and we could've seen his best matchups instead of his wacky/gimmicky PvT. And it'd be great to see Nerchio play STC and Rain/Bly and Sage/Targa after that. Now we're getting some potentially pretty boring games, bracket doesn't seem too good.
Ah well, that's what you get for doing everything randomly.
See ya tomorrow, can't wait to watch Rapollo and Hasu/Socke again.
@m0s1n0: 10 AM starting time for us Germans!
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On October 21 2012 06:17 Killcani wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 06:05 Trashman420 wrote:On October 21 2012 05:59 Killcani wrote:
2 terran in ro16 has there ever been a worst race distribution in any tournament ever? Yeah, like every single GSL in 2011 That's false and you know it . Most GSLs in 2011 had better race distribution if you compare to euro tournaments.
Maybe... but GSL October takes the cake on bad racial distribution hands down.
In RO16 there was a single protoss (SangHo iirc), 5 zergs and ten terran.
GSL Super Tournament wasn't much better, RO16 was 1 Protoss, 6 zergs, nine terran which ties with WCS asia for second
worst racial distribution in a RO16 I think: WCS Asia was 1 Terran, 6 Zergs, Nine Protoss.
Also: Hey! We're gauranteed a foriegner in the finals!
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On October 21 2012 06:28 StarVe wrote:
@m0s1n0: 10 AM starting time for us Germans!
Always this early times :D
Thanks man!
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On October 21 2012 06:10 TheDougler wrote:
Also, Guaranteed Qualified for DH Winter:
Stephano = 32 Points
Nerchio >= 29 Points
Sase = 29 Points
Fraer >= 25 Points
TheSTC >= 25 Points
Targa >= 25 Points
Ret = 25 Points
Liquid Hero = 24 Points
And of course:
Polt
ThorZaIN
MaNa
DIMAGA
ForGG
TaeJa
In order to be guaranteed a spot Bly and Harstem must reach at least the semifinals (though they have a better than average chance of making it as long as they reach at least the quarterfinals in which case they'll have 17 points).
My predictions seeing the bracket for tomorrow, having more then 12 points gets you a seed to DH Winter. So one player of SortOf, Starnan, monchi, Deathangel gets a seed.... wtf kinda.
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Is the Death Angel in the Ro16 the same Death Angel who impersonated a girl for money and embrassed Sjow?
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On October 21 2012 06:45 TheSir wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 06:10 TheDougler wrote:
Also, Guaranteed Qualified for DH Winter:
Stephano = 32 Points
Nerchio >= 29 Points
Sase = 29 Points
Fraer >= 25 Points
TheSTC >= 25 Points
Targa >= 25 Points
Ret = 25 Points
Liquid Hero = 24 Points
Monster (I think is guaranteed? Not sure) = 20 points.
And of course:
Polt
ThorZaIN
MaNa
DIMAGA
ForGG
TaeJa
In order to be guaranteed a spot Bly and Harstem must reach at least the semifinals (though they have a better than average chance of making it as long as they reach at least the quarterfinals in which case they'll have 17 points).
My predictions seeing the bracket for tomorrow, having more then 12 points gets you a seed to DH Winter. So one player of SortOf, Starnan, monchi, Deathangel gets a seed.... wtf kinda.
Well, SortOf is good and it's always cool seeing another Swede in dreamhack really.
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United Kingdom50293 Posts
On October 21 2012 06:50 Broodlings wrote:
Is the Death Angel in the Ro16 the same Death Angel who impersonated a girl for money and embrassed Sjow?
That would be correct.
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On October 21 2012 06:50 TheDougler wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 06:45 TheSir wrote:On October 21 2012 06:10 TheDougler wrote:
Also, Guaranteed Qualified for DH Winter:
Stephano = 32 Points
Nerchio >= 29 Points
Sase = 29 Points
Fraer >= 25 Points
TheSTC >= 25 Points
Targa >= 25 Points
Ret = 25 Points
Liquid Hero = 24 Points
Monster (I think is guaranteed? Not sure) = 20 points.
And of course:
Polt
ThorZaIN
MaNa
DIMAGA
ForGG
TaeJa
In order to be guaranteed a spot Bly and Harstem must reach at least the semifinals (though they have a better than average chance of making it as long as they reach at least the quarterfinals in which case they'll have 17 points).
My predictions seeing the bracket for tomorrow, having more then 12 points gets you a seed to DH Winter. So one player of SortOf, Starnan, monchi, Deathangel gets a seed.... wtf kinda. Well, SortOf is good and it's always cool seeing another Swede in dreamhack really.
Yeah well SortOf isn't bad but not really a powerhouse which you would expect to qualify with only 12 seeds available. But hey not his fault so i hope he makes it out of those 4 players cause i think he's the best player them 4.
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On October 21 2012 06:58 TheSir wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 06:50 TheDougler wrote:On October 21 2012 06:45 TheSir wrote:On October 21 2012 06:10 TheDougler wrote:
Also, Guaranteed Qualified for DH Winter:
Stephano = 32 Points
Nerchio >= 29 Points
Sase = 29 Points
Fraer >= 25 Points
TheSTC >= 25 Points
Targa >= 25 Points
Ret = 25 Points
Liquid Hero = 24 Points
Monster (I think is guaranteed? Not sure) = 20 points.
And of course:
Polt
ThorZaIN
MaNa
DIMAGA
ForGG
TaeJa
In order to be guaranteed a spot Bly and Harstem must reach at least the semifinals (though they have a better than average chance of making it as long as they reach at least the quarterfinals in which case they'll have 17 points).
My predictions seeing the bracket for tomorrow, having more then 12 points gets you a seed to DH Winter. So one player of SortOf, Starnan, monchi, Deathangel gets a seed.... wtf kinda. Well, SortOf is good and it's always cool seeing another Swede in dreamhack really. Yeah well SortOf isn't bad but not really a powerhouse which you would expect to qualify with only 12 seeds available. But hey not his fault so i hope he makes it out of those 4 players cause i think he's the best player them 4.
Only 12 seeds isn't really fair to see because of all the really good players who got direct seeds due to being or winning in the finals. It's actually twenty seeds.
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On October 21 2012 06:58 TheSir wrote:
Yeah well SortOf isn't bad but not really a powerhouse which you would expect to qualify with only 12 seeds available. But hey not his fault so i hope he makes it out of those 4 players cause i think he's the best player them 4.
I have not seen him play, but going 3-0 in both of the group stages, including beating Sage, I would say he is really good!
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Predictions!
+ Show Spoiler + MaNa 2 - 1  White, still not convinced by Mana's PvZ but it should be sufficient to take down White. TargA 2 - 0 Sage, basing this on Sage's PvZ this tournament. He's looking very shaky. If TargA performs decently he should have this.  Rain 2 - 0 Bly, Rain is just way more solid, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Bly makes an upset. Fraer 0 - 2 TheStC, this could go either way, but I feel that TheStC is still a good level above fraer. Giantt 1 - 2 Nerchio, Giantt has been really impressive this tournament, especially in the second group stage going undefeated and taking down Nerchio's protegé, ParanOid, 2 - 0. He has drawn the short straw in Nerchio and will not get further than this imo. Harstem 1 - 2 TLO, still not late enough in the tournament for TLO to break down due to nerves. He is the better player and will win unless Harstem brings something special to the table. SortOf 2 - 0 StarNaN, SortOf will prove too strong for StarNaN. monchi 2 - 1 DeathAngel, that's what you get for posing as a girl.
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Mana >White
Targa > Sage
Rain > Bly
fraer > StC
Mana > Targa
fraer > Rain
fraer > Mana
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Nerchio > Giantt
Harstem > TLO
SortOf > StarNaN
monchi > DA
Nerchio > Harstem
SortOf > monchi
Nerchio > SortOf
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fraer > Nerchio (with plenty of BM)
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On October 21 2012 06:31 TheDougler wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 06:17 Killcani wrote:On October 21 2012 06:05 Trashman420 wrote:On October 21 2012 05:59 Killcani wrote:
2 terran in ro16 has there ever been a worst race distribution in any tournament ever? Yeah, like every single GSL in 2011 That's false and you know it . Most GSLs in 2011 had better race distribution if you compare to euro tournaments. Maybe... but GSL October takes the cake on bad racial distribution hands down. In RO16 there was a single protoss (SangHo iirc), 5 zergs and ten terran. GSL Super Tournament wasn't much better, RO16 was 1 Protoss, 6 zergs, nine terran which ties with WCS asia for second worst racial distribution in a RO16 I think: WCS Asia was 1 Terran, 6 Zergs, Nine Protoss. Also: Hey! We're gauranteed a foriegner in the finals!
yeah with like 3 Koreans out of 60 something players you better have a foreigner in the finals
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EPT
